Mohamed Morsi’s strange gamble on Iran and Ahmadinejad

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/02/05/mohamed-morsis-strange-gamble-on-iran-and-ahmadinejad/

EXCERPT:

Egypt-watchers have worried for months that newly-elected President Mohamed Morsi, barely more than six months into his tenure, might not be the savviest politician. His decision to host Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the first visit by an Iranian leader in 34 tense years, might fuel those fears.

The Iranian leader is deeply unpopular with Egyptian citizens and political players alike. Morsi’s decision to host him anyway risks political capital that he just doesn’t have to spend right now.;;;

It’s not just Egyptian politicians who don’t like Iran; regular Egyptians seem to share their view. According to a Pew poll, a staggering 76 percent of Egyptians report an unfavorable view of Iran. For comparison, that number is only 68 percent among Americans.


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U.S. steps up pressure on Europe to brand Hezbollah a terrorist group

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-steps-up-pressure-on-europe-to-brand-hezbollah-a-terrorist-group/2013/02/05/d261abfe-6fcd-11e2-8b8d-e0b59a1b8e2a_story.html

Rebels may also have launched an offensve in Palmyra to the northeast of Damascus. It is the site of a major oil pipeline junction.

EA has reported on the suicide bombing there. Regime tanks responded by launching shells at adjacent neighborhoods. Reuthers reports that roadblocks across the city have come under assault which suggests a planned and organized offensive may be underway.

Reuthers: Fighting erupts in Damascus as rebels launch offensive

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/06/us-syria-crisis-damscus-idUSBRE9150BD20130206

THE HUNDRED OR SO SYRIANS EXECUTED IN ALEPPO WERE STUDENTS WHO CAME FOR EXAMS

Last week, dozens of corpses were found on the shore of the Quweiq River in Aleppo, Syria.

Now it appears that many were students at a nearby university who were murdered by the regime after traveling to the city for exams.

Substantial evidence had previously confirmed that a bombing that killed about 100 students and wounded or crippled many more was via two air-to-ground missiles. The first was launched from the direction of a regime air base and the second on the MIG's return trip.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/killed-by-the-regime-aleppo-s-river-of-the-dead-a-881644.html

TUNISIA OPPOSITION LEADER WHO CRITICIZED ISLAMISTS HAS BEEN SHOT DEAD

Are these extremists trying to do what they did in Iran? Seize the revolution via a coup within a coup?

If so, I doubt they can succeed. Tunisia--like Syria--was relatively secular prior to the revolution. Iranians in 1979 were far more naïve about the clerics and their capacity for corruption, brutality and greed.

What Tunisians, Syrians and others may have to put up with is a prolonged vicious assault on civilians similar to the decade-long assault in Algeria in the nineties.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/tunisian-opposition-leader-shot-dead/2013/02/06/d9dfde52-7061-11e2-ac36-3d8d9dcaa2e2_story.html

POTENTIAL REPERCUSSIONS IN SYRIA, RUSSIA, IRAN & LEBANON IF THIS CONTINUES

1. When a regime's forces have reached the point where they can only react to what the enemy does, how long can that regime expect to survive?

2. These attacks will relieve pressure on Idlib and Aleppo as well as Daraya and elsewhere.


3. After today I doubt we'll hear much talk of "stalemate." Rebel military strategy seems to consist o patient "planting" (the stage often mistaken for "stalemate") followed by "harvesting"--in this case on a larger scale. When its over regime forces and locations in Damascus will be even more vulnerable. These plant, then harvest cycles only change in one direction. The planting stage keeps getting shorter and the subsequent rebel harvests bigger.


4. How will the rebel successes affect Russia's UN position? Evacuation of Russia civililans?

5. Assad's regime probably won't fall this week or next but, especially given effects elsewhere, you can't rule out it could happen prior to Iranian presidential elections. What effect will the news have on Iranians that day? Their regime is equally Assad-like and thus equally unpopular. When the explosion comes Khamenei, as usual, will be prone to the same excesses. But this time such tactics may have the same effect on Iranians as Assad's brutality had on Syrians. There comes a time when fear no longer contains a people too enraged.

6. Within the past week, a study reporting Hezbollah involvement in an attack on a tourist bus in Rumania has placed that organization in a position where it is likely to face repercussions. With Assad's new troubles, Hezbollah could take a double hit.

"Operation Epic" has begun

EXCERPTS:

1430 GMT: The Final Push for Damascus? Probably Not. This is far from your average day in Damascus, but it's also not likely a rebel push to ultimately take the city. For starters, while the regime is constantly losing ground, the rebels would have to chew through a considerable amount of Assad firepower to take the capital. They know this, as well.

However, the surprise success of the rebels in Daraa, as well as Aleppo, has caught the regime off guard and has caused them to scramble to react. Syrian convoys are reportedly screaming down highways near Damascus and in Daraa province in an attempt to get to the battlefields and check the rebel movements. However, if the regime feels significantly threatened in Damascus, this battle will draw forces away from responding to Daraa.

Furthermore, the rebels appear to be hitting areas of Damascus near areas where they have had some success in recent weeks, an attempt to expand on their gains. Furthermore, this battle will possibly take some of the heat off of rebel forces in Darayya, who have been surprisingly successful in defending a surrounded city for over a month.


Authorities in Damascus closed the main Abbasid Square and the Fares al-Khoury thoroughfare as fighters attacked roadblocks and fortifications with rocket-propelled grenades and mortars.


"The areas of Jobar, Zamalka, al-Zablatani and parts of Qaboun and the ring road have become a battleground," activist Fida Mohammad said from the district of Qaboun.

In the middle of a battle like this, one could follow the "where there's smoke, there's fire" rule, and assume that anywhere the government is shelling there are ongoing battles. Many parts of Damascus have been shelled so far today.

1400 GMT: New Rebel Offensive Against Damascus. A fresh assault against the capital has been launched against the capital, according to many of our sources. At least 6 rebel groups, including elements from the Free Syrian Army and elements from Jabhat al Nusra, have been part of the offensive, Journalist Hassan Hassan reports: