Does a day or week pass anymore without the regime losing an important military or economic resource?
A WEEK AGO: it was Jobar in Damascus, a strategic neighborhood that apparently cuts regime-controlled areas in half.
YESTERDAY: In the east Assad lost his most important dam--the third one rebels have captured. It controls key water and energy resoures.
TODAY: The regime lost another military airfield (Al Jarrah) along with intact with jets only 26 miles from Aleppo--a base no doubt used to help an increasingly besieged Itlib.
COMING UP SOON: For the first time Assad will lose--for good--a major city, most likely Itlib or Deir Al Zor. This time, given the regime's limited offernsive resource it will become clear in short order that it cannot be retaken. Except in the southeast, that is the case everywhere and even thereaa recapturing what is lost is no sure thing.
The regime has spent weeks trying to retake Darayaa. It has spent two years trying to retake Homs and the rebels still control as much as half. In those cases, stalemate constitutes victory since the rebel goal is main to hold on until priority targets elsewhere are disposed of.
If Idlib its fall endangers Latakia to the East, Aleppo to the West and Homs to the South. If Deir, the regime loses much of its energy supplies and the remainder when nearby Palmyra falls.
If I were to place bets, I'd put my money on Deir, now encircled on four sides, defended by one brigade and supplied (poorly) by only one airport. No matterwhich falls first, the news increase panic and demoralization in those that remain. More men and resources will then become available to besiege some critical nearby target (probably Palmyra and its oil pipelines in Deir's case.