Does a day or week pass anymore without the regime losing an important military or economic resource?
A WEEK AGO: it was Jobar in Damascus, a strategic neighborhood that apparently cuts regime-controlled areas in half.
YESTERDAY: In the east Assad lost his most important dam--the third one rebels have captured. It controls key water and energy resoures.
TODAY: The regime lost another military airfield (Al Jarrah) along with intact with jets only 26 miles from Aleppo--a base no doubt used to help an increasingly besieged Itlib.
COMING UP SOON: For the first time Assad will lose--for good--a major city, most likely Itlib or Deir Al Zor. This time, given the regime's limited offernsive resource it will become clear in short order that it cannot be retaken. Except in the southeast, that is the case everywhere and even thereaa recapturing what is lost is no sure thing.
The regime has spent weeks trying to retake Darayaa. It has spent two years trying to retake Homs and the rebels still control as much as half. In those cases, stalemate constitutes victory since the rebel goal is main to hold on until priority targets elsewhere are disposed of.
If Idlib its fall endangers Latakia to the East, Aleppo to the West and Homs to the South. If Deir, the regime loses much of its energy supplies and the remainder when nearby Palmyra falls.
If I were to place bets, I'd put my money on Deir, now encircled on four sides, defended by one brigade and supplied (poorly) by only one airport. No matterwhich falls first, the news increase panic and demoralization in those that remain. More men and resources will then become available to besiege some critical nearby target (probably Palmyra and its oil pipelines in Deir's case.
Comments 10 Pending 0
FG
ReportSuggestion to readers of this chain:
As folks at EA point out, things are developing so fast in Syria today it's hard to keep up so you want to check there periodically about changing developments during the day.
As noted below, a Yahoo story hinted that more than one rebel assault on Aleppo's airports is underway today so I contacted EA and asked them to check it out. They did and are now providing more info on that.
Aleppo's main airport is clearly under major assault. If it goes I can't see how regime forces there can hang on for long. Among the weapons already captured are the rebel's favorite anti-air gun which is also used against land fortifications.
http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2013/2/12/syria-live-coverage-car-bomb-on-turkey-border-insurgents-tak.html
FG
ReportAn interesting analysis of military developments in Damascus from Foreign Affairs:
The struggle for Damascus looks poised to transform this bloody conflict.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/02/11/syria_s_battle_royale
FG
ReportAccording to today's NY Times, the rebels are already planning to use Syria's biggest dam (seized a day ago) to divert energy from regime-held areas to rebel-held areas.
“We will cut all sources for the regime,” said the fighter, who identified himself by a first name, Nawaf.
He said that rebels also had taken control of large areas of Tabqa, including a military police barracks, an air force facility and an artillery base, seizing weapons and ammunition, and that they did not intend to damage any infrastructure.
“The Shabiha says, ‘Assad or burn the country,’ ” he said, using the term for the feared plainclothes pro-government militias. “We say, ‘We will burn Assad and keep the country.’ ”
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which had a similar account of events, also said rebel fighters had seized control of three neighborhoods that housed dam workers.
“The regime forces showed no resistance, while heads of security branches escaped using helicopters through Al Tabqa military airport,” the Observatory said in a statement. (Note: a pattern that's become increasingly common. The behavior of the regime's officers vis-à-vis its troops increasingly resembles that of Mussolini's officers toward their charges).
FG
ReportURGENT TO EA EDITORS: HAS A SECOND AIR BASE FALLEN OR IS THIS THE SAME ONE?
Am I misreading the following news item or has a second air base fallen near Aleppo? This was just post 28 minutes ago on Yahoo. It cites two bases: the first fell southwest of Aleppo on Tuesday (which is the one you seem to have reported on). The second defends Aleppo airport so apparently would be much closer than the 25 miles or so you mentioned in reports so far.
Needless to say, the loss of two Aleppo airports in less than 24 hours would be an astounding achievement.
.http://news.yahoo.com/syrian-rebels-storm-defending-aleppo-airport-152016469.html
FG
ReportKarroubi's Son: Iranian Regime
Afraid of Green Movement Return
Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/02/iran-medhi-karroubi-hossein-mousavi-prison-green-movement.html#ixzz2KnYPR2t4
FG
ReportHere's an AP report on the captured air base.
http://news.yahoo.com/rebels-capture-air-northern-syria-090813741.html
Notice how--once again--resistance apparently wasn't very strong. In this case a major assault was launched on Monday and it was all over by Tuesday morning. As elsewhere--many regime troops simply ran off. When the dam fell a day earlier, defenders fled by helicopter.
It's this trend that makes me think the regime may fall faster than many analyists imagine. Just imagine the effect when news of Zeir-al-Zor's fall (coming soon) reaches cut off regime defenders in Idlib and Aleppo. How will their fall in turn affect thinking in Damascus.
FG
ReportTHE MORALE ISSUE: Yesterday the NY Times reported on faltering troop morale in Damascus. These reports come from Aleppo and Homs.
Morale is Waning For Syrian Forces in Aleppo
http://thelevantpost.com/politics/syrian-forces-morale-7231/
Syrian army general boosts morale of troops in Homs, restricts their leaves
http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/04/07/205912.html
faraway
ReportWhat do you think of Obama's non-action?http://www.realclearworld.com/2013/02/07/obamas_post-election_pivot_on_syria_145048.html
FG
ReportThough I'm usually an Obama supporter, I think he could have found reliable forces among the FSA to provide military assistance before now (especially anti-air). I suspect he has begun to supply some of the new military equipment (mainly from the former Yugoslavia) that has become visibible among FSA regulars (non-Islamist) very recently.
He does face economic constraints (the GOP opposition would never approve revenues to finance substantial aid) and poltical ones (I have no doubt GOP politicians and Fox News types will jump on Obama if he does openly supply such aid, just as they now jump on him for not doing so--openly or otherwise).
FG
ReportEnduring America on the captured air base:
Photos and videos confirm the rebels captured a substantial amount of aircraft, some not operational but others loaded with bombs, including cluster bombs. Since it is believed the rebels include some defecting pilots, this could have serious consequences.
Enduring America on Deir Al Zor
Ibrahim Abu Baker, leader of the Al-Qadisiyah Brigade, said the opposition has launched a major operation to take control of Deir Ez Zor after pushing out regime forces from the oil-producing areas around it.
If they seize the city, the insurgency will control an entire province for the first time in the 23-month-old uprising.
Abu Baker said his brigade, along with Islamists from Jabhat al-Nusra and Arab fighters, had surrounded Deir Ez Zor on four sides: "The countryside is liberated, what is left of the province is the city itself. All brigades are taking part in this....We are in charge of the eastern side of the city."
A fighter in the Brigade said insurgents had begun the operation by targeting tank fire against three military targets inside the city and besieging the final army stronghold on its outskirts:
We are now surrounding [the Syrian army's] "113 Brigade" which is the last point in the countryside before we are totally focused on the city. When we liberate the city some brigades will stay to take care of it and the rest will march to Damascus.
Enduring America on Damascus:
EA reports entire new neighborhoods are being bombed to smithereens or set afire by incendiary bombs. Assad's message to the Syrian people seems to be the same as Hitler's in 1945 Berlin: "If I go down, I'm taking you with me."