According to the nephew, Khamenei is either “a toy” in the hands of Ahmadinejad, Yadzi and the IRCG or “he shares their crimes.”
The nephew says of Khamenei, “there is nothing he can do.”
“If he backs off from his comments even one step, he will lose his leadership and the whole [conservative] camp will disintegrate.
“I don’t think Ali Khamenei has a lot of power, it’s likely that all of this is being run by the Revolutionary Guard, and Ali Khamenei is forced to deal with the [Revolutionary Guard] in order not to lose his role as the supreme leader. He can’t do anything and he won’t say anything [substantial].”
MY ANALYSIS:
Either explanation makes Khamenei look awful.
The first and least likely theory theory–that Khamenei’s inaction is caused by “helplessness”– has a major flaw. It suggests Khamenei doesn’t approve of what is happening but fears to speak out even where he has plenty of opportunity as at Friday prayers. At a minimum it suggests incredible cowardice, since it’s obvious many IRCG and Basilj would jump ship if Khamenei condemned the security services and threw in with the reformers.
The second theory–Khamenei is a criminal–makes much more sense for many reasons:
–It was Khamenei himself who gave the IRCG and Ahmadinejad so much power during the Khamenei period in order to crack down on and reverse reforms. Recall his edict imposing censorship and the treatment of students who protested.
–Over 20 years Khamenei allowed even worse crimes than today and in far greater numbers. Why would he suddenly object to such things?
–Similarly, long before the IRCG got so powerful, Khamenei long protected known criminals like Montazeri and kept them in high positions. Meanwhile he promoted thugs and reactionaries on bodies such as the Guardian Council when he could as easily have appointed moderates.
–He recently propomoted Montazeri and picked another prosecutor just as extreme.
The fact is Khamenei could have endorsed an candidate other than Ahmadinejad and could have chosen a moderate to command the IRCJ but picked Jafari instead. Taeb didn’t get to head the Basilj either without Khamenei’s full approval.
