[ comment ] Things rarely change in Washington. Frustrated by an adversary’s policies, the reflex action of political moderates up and down Pennsylvania Avenue is for increased sanctions, and for conservatives, keeping the military option on the table. In the case of Iran, these cries are reaching a fever pitch. But the military option would be catastrophic and the track record of sanctions is nothing to crow about.
So what could work? Well, additional financial sanctions by the Treasury could squeeze Iran — cutting off all Iranian bank access to the international financial system — but this would require the cooperation of the Europeans, and also of China, Russia, Dubai and Malaysia, countries that could front for Iran.
There is a targeted US initiative — with no need to make concessions to China and Russia — that could alter Iran’s objectionable policies, improve its human rights and make its nuclear enrichment less dangerous. A little insight into Iran’s economic conditions provides an answer.
Iran’s foreign exchange reserves are being rapidly depleted because of lower oil prices and capital flight. Over the summer, because of political uncertainties and a sick economy, it was estimated at $250 million per day to Dubai alone. The last official figure for Iran’s foreign currency reserves in July of 2008 placed it at a little over $80 billion. My estimate is that it now stands in the $40 to $50 billion range because of decl… >>>
