This fourth round of sanctions plus one UNSC presidential statement makes five UNSC actions against the fundamentalist regime regarding its suspected nuclear weapons program. UNSC resolutions are INTERNATIONAL LAW. All these UNSC resolutions are demanding the fundamentalist regime to stop its uranium enrichment.
1. The biggest winner is the Obama administration. The Obama administration’s diplomacy was able to convince Russia and China, two states that have been close to the fundamentalist regime, to vote in favor of this resolution.
2. The major losers include Ahmadinejad and Khamenei. Their policies resulted in this major defeat for the fundamentalist regime. This could have easily been avoided if the regime accepted the Geneva deal back in October.
From the get go, President Obama had publicly and privately extended his hand to the fundamentalist terrorist regime in order to resolve the nuclear issue. Obama was in the White House from January 20, 2009. Khamenei could have simply accepted Obama’s offer of direct and unconditional negotiations. This would have meant doing one of several things. For example, Khamenei could have personally sat down wit President Obama (lets say in Switzerland) and directly discussed and resolved the main issues of contention. Or they could have authorized a high-level team to sit down and discuss all the main issues. President Obama sent (at least) two private letters to Khamenei, expressing his own willingness to directly negotiate with Khamenei based on mutual interest and mutual respect. President Obama put forth ONLY one primary issue: uranium enrichment. President Obama left out human rights, freedom, and democracy as issues of concern in dealing with the fundamentalist regime.
The question is WHY Khamenei refused to accept authorizing a high level team to sit down and negotiate all the main issues of concern. I think the most plausible answer is that Khamenei did not want to resolve the issues. The U.S. GOAL was, and is, to have the fundamentalist regime stop suspicious nuclear activities such as the fundamentalist regime’s uranium enrichment program. It appears to me that the most plausible explanation is that the fundamentalist terrorist regime really wants nuclear weapons and thus actual negotiations would be counter-productive to the regime’s primary goal of nuclear weapons or nuclear weapon capability. Therefore, Khamenei used stonewalling tactics.
3. THIS particular UNSC resolution is not very strong. The only sanction that could cause the collapse of the fundamentalist terrorist regime is a comprehensive sanction against purchase of crude oil and natural gas from the terrorist regime. Due to the opposition of Russia and China, real effective sanction has not been passed. This resolution, would not cause any major impact in Iran.
4. However, there is great psychological impact. The fundamentalist regime tried very hard to defeat this resolution and said so publically. The fundamentalist regime really did not want this particular UNSC sanction.
5. Many foreign firms will have more incentives to leave the market in Iran. Many more will interpret the world situation as becoming more hostile to the fundamentalist regime, thus would simply avoid entering the market in Iran. These will make the economic situation marginally worse in Iran, thus, undermining the ability of the fundamentalist regime to have more financial resources to buy off various individuals and sectors.
6. Although this resolution did not approve real strong economic sanctions on the terrorist regime, there is a possibility that it would encourage real tough sanctions being approved by the EU, Japan, and others. For example, if the U.S. Congress passed legislation prohibiting any company dealing with the Islamic Republic from being able to also have trade with American companies overseas or buy and sell in the U.S. then THAT would have real impact. Or if the EU passed real tough sanctions prohibiting purchase of crude oil and natural gas from the fundamentalist regime, that would have REAL IMPACT on the terrorist regime.
Purchase of crude oil and natural gas provides 40 to 90 BILLION dollars (depending on the price of oil and gas) DIRECTLY to Ahmadinejad and Khamenei every single year. They use this money to pay for their coercive apparatuses and buy support from individuals and groups. A real comprehensive economic sanction could cause the collapse of the fundamentalist regime.
7. This resolution also authorizes inspection of ships entering or leaving Iran. In my opinion, this is the most significant segment of the resolution. This would make the U.S. Navy interceding any and all ships going in and out of Iranian ports legal according to international law. This would make a de facto American “naval blockade” legal because it would be enforcing this UNSC resolution. If the terrorist regime’s IRGC confronted U.S. Navy, then according to international law, the terrorist regime is acting against international law.
8. Minor losers: Turkey and Brazil.
8a. The ruling party in Turkey, the AKP, is an Islamist party. Many were hoping to see AKP become more moderate and provide an example of an Islamist party combine Islam and democracy. The AKP’s embrace of the terrorist Hamas has gravely damaged AKP’s reputation, although in Turkey it would, at least in the short term, boost it. Hamas is an extremist violent anti-democratic group. Instead of working with the moderate PLO-Fatah, the Hamas seized Gaza and has refused new elections (because many believe it would lose to Fatah). Many regard Hamas killing of Fatah officials and members and seizer of Gaza as a coup.
By allying with the fundamentalist terrorist regime, AKP further adds to the perception that, it too, is an extremist group. AKP’s embrace of Islamic terrorists such as Hamas and the fundamentalist regime ruling Iran, cements EU’s fears of Turkey.
Had AKP instead embraced Fatah and condemned the fundamentalist regime ruling Iran, it would have enhanced the perception around the world that it is a moderate and democratic party. One could not embrace Ahmadinejad and Hamas and claim to be moderate and democratic. Hamas and Ahmadinejad have the blood of moderates on their hands.
8b. The fundamentalist regime wanted to use President Lula as “useful idiot.” Ahmadinejad was using Lula and AKP to buy time and undermine the UNSC sanctions.
