Elizabeth Kubler-Ross introduced 5 famous stages of grief in 1969. It starts with “Denial” and ends with “Acceptance”. Although, her theory has been encountered with much criticism as to whether all people go through the entire stages orderly and universally, nonetheless it is still among the well-known theories of the grief and loss. Following the recent uprisings in the middle-east , I would like to extend this theory to the way that the dictatorships deal with revolutions. After all, loss of power for governments can be as tragic as someone confronts with their own terminal stages in real life. Especially, for the corrupted and despotic systems which for long have believed that the government is their unquestionable god-given entity.
This write up of course, is not a scholarly article by any means and I understand that human psychology cannot be simply generalized to collective political phenomena. The sequential process also may not be very accurate and universal but worth to mention. In any event, I tried to bring up some examples to support my idea:
1- Denial: authorities do not believe in what here and there are said about the unrests. The media controlled by the governments are responsible for denying any “disturbing” news. Seda va sima still broadcasts the usual boring programs and formal newscasts. Unsettling news becomes increasingly circulated by unofficial sources and demonstrations become more and more difficult to ignore. “Shahr dar amn o amaan ast…aasoodeh bekhaabid”. The authorities soon realize that the denial only makes them to look stupid! State of shock and disbelief turns to another stage:
2- Anger : the unrests grows to the extent that it could not be ignored any more. So, governments start to act violently. Sandis khoraan va chomaaghdaaraan beat and arrest and kill protesters. Governments realize that the threat is real, so they act to show their power. Supposedly, the unrests spread, because the violence only can provoke people more. Nedaa ha va Sohraab ha va Mokhtaariha start to emerge. In Libya people are massacred. Genocides take place. The governments realize that this cannot go on forever, as the repressive forces can turn their back and join the opposition. Or disarray can bring the country to her knees in the long run; So they start to test other options:
3- Bargaining: governments at the same time try to get a grip of the opposition groups and to understand how they can be bribed. Media may start to confuse people with faked news of coalitions and compromises. They also may try to find that they also have some common grounds with the aspirations of the people involved in the uprising. Koor khoondan!
4- Depression: as the protests mount and become uncontrollable, governments start to give up and realize that the loss may be imminent. They come to terms with the fact that they have to recognize the strength of the opposition and cope with it. They focus on strategy of exit. Start to announce that “ sedaaie enghelaabe shomaa ra shenidam, ei mellat!” powerful figures may start planning how to transfer the big money to abroad. Mullahs may do the same with an eye on their Swiss accounts; while thinking how hard can be saying goodbye to sweet religious power.
5- Acceptance: at this stage, regimes are collapsed. Mubaraks and Ben Alis are given up. Dictators leave the scenes and think how they may physically survive. The mass exodus of the governmental figures starts. Revolutions succeed.
I am not sure at the moment, which stage IRI is dealing with? But they don’t seem to deal with the first stage. Since hezbollahi fanatics believe that they are representative of Imam Zaman, I anticipate a long-bloody stage 2, and then an inevitable stage 5 to come….. but any stage is overdue.
