Does the regime make its choices by weighing costs and benefits, or through a capricious process…
All indications are that the regime values its own survival above all… To the extent the regime defines its interests parochially rather than as national interests, it may also discount the economic suffering of the Iranian people except to the extent it leads to political turmoil….
Likewise any benefit offered by the U.S. and our allies…must be seen by the regime as advancing its interests. Many things the U.S. sees as “carrots” — for example, free trade or normal diplomatic relations — may in fact be seen as threatening to an authoritarian regime which is leery of the West … we must also be aware that the regime likely lacks complete information or anything close to it. This is where the assumption that Iran acts rationally runs into the most trouble. Decisions in Iran are made by one man — Ali Khamenei. By all accounts, he has not traveled outside Iran since becoming Supreme Leader in 1989, is likely insulated by his aides from bad news or criticism, and depends on an increasingly narrow and homogenous power base which may not expose him to alternative opinion >>>
All indications are that the regime values its own survival above all… To the extent the regime defines its interests parochially rather than as national interests, it may also discount the economic suffering of the Iranian people except to the extent it leads to political turmoil….
Likewise any benefit offered by the U.S. and our allies…must be seen by the regime as advancing its interests. Many things the U.S. sees as “carrots” — for example, free trade or normal diplomatic relations — may in fact be seen as threatening to an authoritarian regime which is leery of the West … we must also be aware that the regime likely lacks complete information or anything close to it. This is where the assumption that Iran acts rationally runs into the most trouble. Decisions in Iran are made by one man — Ali Khamenei. By all accounts, he has not traveled outside Iran since becoming Supreme Leader in 1989, is likely insulated by his aides from bad news or criticism, and depends on an increasingly narrow and homogenous power base which may not expose him to alternative opinion >>>
