I see too many Iranian Republicans these days. Ed Gillespie may want to consider relocating his headquarters to Los Angeles, known in the Iranian community as Tehran-geles, where in every Kebob house wealthy Iranian expatriates can make a meaty donation to the cause of liberation of Iran by George W. Bush.
That’s right. Iranians are not voting for Bush because they love his tax cuts. Most of my fellow countrymen try their best to evade any taxes, always stretching the legal boundaries and creating fascinating new loopholes –ones that even George Bush in his most generous moment did not dream of. These masters of tax evasion have always felt entitled to a hefty cut long before the W tax code was operational.
And, what about the economy stupid? Iranians who are in the real estate business have seen a great economy these past four years. The shop owners saw little change in their economy. In general, many skillfully navigate the system and make a profit even in the worst economic times. Do they care about the massive increase in the deficit? Are they heartbroken over the deep cuts in the “safety net?” You must be kidding.
They don’t care much about Iraq either. They are convinced the US is after Iraq’s oil. They may be the only Republican constituency that hates the US domination only slightly less than they hate Arabs. In their view, Iraq in American hands is a good thing. In fact many would insist: Don’t bring the troops home! The job is not finished.
Here is why they really want to vote Bush next November.
According to the Neo-con fixed Iranian, Bush will fight the mullahs, but Kerry is getting money from the Islamic Republic lobby. This is at the heart of the pro-Bush Iranian-Republican vote.
Now, let me say that Kerry’s financial support by the Islamic Republic lobby is no fantasy. I am not about to name anyone. Let me just say that former President Rafsanjani’s money did make it to Kerry’s hands, and you don’t have to trust any right wing pro-Bush propagandist to believe that. I just told you so and I have never voted for a Republican in my life.
Let it also be clear that a Bush invasion of Iran in the aftermath of Iraq fiasco is not likely. Even the Islamic regime in Tehran knows that. It is hard to imagine that Bush’s tough talk about regime change would translate to anything substantial.
But let me suggest that a Kerry presidency, to the dismay of the majority of my fellow Iranians, may be better for Iran. That is, a future democratic Iran, if that is what they are seeking.
And why do I have such claim in the face of Bush’s intent to play hard ball with the mullahs when Kerry has already announced plans for future cooperation with them? It’s simple! We must stop dreaming of an Iranian democracy without Iranian democrats. If Iranians want a democratic transformation, they must mobilize all of their resources to demolish once and for all the Islamic state.
Ever since President Bush placed Iran on the axis of evil and the talk of “regime change” was introduced to the Washington circles, the Iranian people have switched into the anticipatory mode. Such “wait and pray” policy will not bring about a democratic transformation of Iran. The masses that stay home and wait for Bush or any other foreign power to liberate them are doomed to fail in achieving democracy.
The effect of American invasion of Iraq on the Iranian intellectuals has been equally devastating. They have suddenly rediscovered their strong anti-imperialist impulses. The virulent anti-American sentiment that had been dormant for more than a decade, despite being unpopular with the masses, now finds an excuse for expression.
Like the masses, many of the Iranian intellectuals convinced themselves that George is coming to town. Anticipating a US military invasion, they have cautioned against confronting the Islamic regime for the fear of becoming a tool of US foreign policy.
But what if Kerry wins? It is true that Kerry will likely follow the advice of the big Z, Carter’s former National Security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski, and normalize the relations with Iran.
Now, that is no easy task given the paranoid nature of the Islamic Republic elites and the unruly shadow government that rules the country. But if the Z alternative is successful, Kerry will smash hopes of all those who are waiting in their basements for the smart bombs to wipe out the mullahs. Kerry’s Iran, will be at peace with US, will call off his dogs of war in Iraq, and begin negotiating their nuclear arsenal.
For all this, Iran will be rewarded in cash, nuclear energy, investments, contracts and lifting of a useless economic sanction. What Iran does to their youth, dissidents, women and minorities will be Iran’s internal problem. Certainly a regime change will no longer be the objective of the US foreign policy. Echoing the words of Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi, the Iranian regime’s grand bargain with Kerry could be summarized in one sentence: “leave us alone”.
The Islamic Republic of Iran will look very stable after such new and exciting love affair. But even “An island of stability” in the words of President Carter, or an “anchor of stability”, as Mr Kharazi, recently called it in his interview with Charlie Rose, will have to deal with the demands of Iranian people.
Under a Kerry presidency Iranians will once again face a dictatorship that enjoys support of Europe and US alike. A dictatorship that can only be changed by the Iranians who are determined to bring about democracy and rule of law. The recent history of Iran suggests that in that faithful historical moment, the islands and anchors of stability could rapidly vaporize into smokes.
That will be the moment of awakening for my country. In that moment, we have come full circle. Iranians can feel hostile toward US once again. Mr. Brzezinski can try hopelessly to preserve the regime once more as he did in 1979. But he will not be any more successful than he was in 1979.
If all this indeed happen, it may also be another one of those remarkable ironies of history. A conspiratorial eye would conclude that Iranian revolutions happen with Mr. Brzezinski at the helm. The man knows how to trigger a revolution against his allies.
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