Iran and the West finally concluded the longest episode ever of the game show “Deal or No Deal.” Iran and the West finally agreed on what briefcase to keep.
Now I want to talk about a few things that may be in store for Iran.
Politics
President Hassan Rouhani kept his promise of making a nuclear deal with the West, and now he has political capital to spend. Rouhani will need to choose wisely on what he spends that capital because the hardliners will do their best to guarantee that he burns through that capital by surrounding him with bonfires.
There may be some hardliners who will try to push back on his success by making life harder for people socially. It’s part of the game of power that has been played for millennium. Being disliked is always preferable than being dismissed in politics. There is no reason for things to be different in Iran.
So as hardliners try to trip Rouhani and have him burn through his political capital, it will be crucial that Rouhani to be very careful. Every step from here on out will need to count. cHe won’t get second chances.
Trade
The Germans are coming. I think that Iran owes a great deal to the success in Vienna to Germany for putting a muzzle on France by using the Greek negotiations as leverage. That was a badly needed assist. Sorry Greece. Now as a reward Germany may get right of first refusal to lucrative deals. I call it the price for doing business.
As the economy opens up, the number 1 pitfall to avoid is going back to being too dependent on foreign supplies. Yes you can now buy more things than before, but the goal should always remain to make them yourself and make them better and efficiently. Iran’s economy will never grow unless it starts producing things people all over the world would want to buy at a premium. So hooking up with Germany is not a bad place to start. Germans are good managers. So watch and learn.
The South Koreans are coming too. South Korea and Iran had a budding economic relationship before the sanctions were imposed. The South Koreans fought every step of the way to avoid leaving the Iranian market. Now they will be back with a vengeance.
The United States being able to import Iranian pistachios and carpets to America should be short term goal. Americans don’t give a crap about your pistachios and carpets. If you want Americans to learn to respect and see Iran in a different light, start working on sending them the next hot electronic gadgets or car. Iranian focus should move from sending Americans commodities such as pistachios to coming up with ways to start sending them computer processors, and the next drug to cure their diabetes. So I recommend that as soon as Iran can legally do so, use its relationship with Venezuela to get into a working relationship with the biotechnology powerhouse Cuba. Connections can trump money. And Iran has connections. Use them.
As for the French? Make them work for everything. They were not shy about using Iran as their stepping stone into the defense business on the Arabian Peninsula, so don’t be shy about telling them to take a number.
U.S /Iran relationship
Congress won’t be able to kill this deal for 1 simple reason; they tried to make Iran walk away by requesting conditions that were unacceptable to Iran, but with this new deal they can’t have the fault of this agreement dying rest on their shoulders. Americans still want to look like saviors to the cruel Iranian regime. If they kill this deal, they will validate EVERYTHING that Khamenei has been saying about Americans to young Iranians and that can’t happen. So ultimately they will complain and make noise, but the president will get his way.
But to anyone who had hope of dating and a possible future marriage to the US after this deal, I have bad news. That is not happening. What you have right now with the US is a relationship of convenience.
1)T he US and Iran can’t be married. The US already has a wife in West Asia. Her name is Israel. And Israel is not fond of polygamy. I don’t foresee their divorce anytime soon, so stop dreaming girl and accept what you’ve got.
2) The US and Iran have different strategic goals and most of them cannot be reconciled. The moment Iran’s geopolitical needs completely aligns to the US’ geopolitical needs is the day Iran goes back to being our house slave. Iranians should neither desire nor contemplate that option. The non-alignment policy of “Neither East Nor West” is the best option for Iran. It gives Iran options, and also Iran’s geography demands it. A woman with options is the happiest woman of all. So why mess with a good thing?
Human Rights
There are a thousand things Iran can do better in human rights, but I will focus on what I think is probable.
Women entering stadiums is an achievable goal. I see this as an easier goal to achieve then asking for the hijab to be voluntary, which may be a good goal, but not likely to happen soon. Rouhani will mention voluntary hijab, but it is not on the hill that he is willing to die on.
Women allowed to sing freely in Iran without using tricks of having 2 men there as backup is also an achievable goal. As a thank you for job well done, Rouhani could ask Khamenei for edicts to allow women inside stadiums and singing in public space, and Khamenei may very well oblige.
As for anything else that may be achieved, it is too soon to tell.
BRICS
Joining that sinking ship is not worth the effort. Iran needs to have a good relationship with China, but that can be achieved without entering into this BRICS hot mess and wasting time and effort trying look important. So Iran, don’t do it.
Finally
I can see an Ikea in Iran’s future, and a Daiso Japan with an Uniqlo, and an Etude House.
Congrats to anyone who believed that this Deal or No Deal episode would someday come to an end with both sides walking away with something.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hmZFHjQfx-o
