The sad truth is that if Iran wants
a nuclear weapon, it will likely eventually get one. So the United
States should quit wasting valuable political capital beseeching,
threatening, and horse-trading with China, Russia, and other UN Security
Council members to incrementally ratchet up likely futile multilateral
economic sanctions against Iran.
Economic sanctions rarely work at coercing the target nation when
anything but modest goals are desired and can drag the sanctioning
nation(s) and the target into an unexpected war. The most universal,
comprehensive, and grinding sanctions in world history in the early
1990s failed to compel Saddam Hussein to withdraw his invasion forces
from Kuwait. And getting Saddam out of Kuwait was a more modest goal
than coercing a country to give up its quest for the “ultimate
deterrent.” Furthermore, multilateral sanctions on Iran will never be
that strong because Russia and China have substantial commercial
relations with Tehran and have repeatedly watered down U.S. attempts for
stronger measures. Even with stronger measures, sanctions often erode
over time, as the target simply pays people to evade the sanctions.
When the sanctions erode or have no success in coercing the usually
unachievable policy outcome from the target, political pressure often
exists to escalate to war. In 1… >>>
