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Dubya looking like a big ‘L’
Without dealing with the Mullahs, history will judge George Bush’s work as unfinished


April 28, 2006

We all know he is a government stooge for big oil... and has been ‘cornering Iran’ mainly as a ploy to drive up oil prices.

It’s all too reminiscent of the nonsense we all went through in the ‘70s when they were blaming Arabs or the Shah of Iran for pushing up oil prices. Western politicians shrewdly deflected the heat from themselves while their economies were tanking. They then quietly set the stage for exploiting ‘expensive to mine’ oil fields in Britain’s North Sea and Alaska. And then, they cut the Shah off at his knees when their oil fields came on line... and shut off Iran’s production. It was a convenient solution for a number of years to maintain prices at the correct levels for pumping oil out of those expensive fields.

Now, it is play time again. Both North Sea Oil and Alaskan Oil have dwindled. But worldwide demand has also grown substantially. So they are looking for new oil to grab. Yes, they’ve now grabbed Iraq’s oil, and are developing Afghanistan as a pipeline route to export oil from the Caspian basin from their newly acquired puppet (former Soviet) nations. Iraq has the world’s 2nd largest oil reserves and Central Asia has vast, virtually untapped hydrocarbon reserves worth trillions of dollars. This was a giant prize for Dubya’s dad’s ‘cold war break up of the Soviet Union’ followed up by Dubya’s ‘war on terrorism’... not only have they grabbed all this oil, but more importantly they kicked out the Russians, French and Chinese from those same oil fields in this war.

And, as prices rise, they are also planning to exploit new (expensive) non-conventional oil... For example the United States has the largest known concentration of Oil Shale which would be economical to exploit with Oil prices above $60/barrel; and can exploit Canadian Oil Sands too (under a revised NAFTA accord). Interestingly Canada could emerge holding the worlds’ largest reserves of oil once its ‘Oil Sands’ reserves qualify as economically exploitable. More Mexican Oil will also be available for exploitation by (non-PEMEX) major oil companies when it’s vast but ‘expensive to exploit’ Chicontepec Field comes on line... with technology and investment that ONLY major oil companies have.  (As a side note: look for Canada and Mexico to emerge as ‘stronger’ political partners in America’s war on terrorism).

You should also note that these major companies are essentially American and British. For example, One oil major recently purchased over C$465 Million in leases in Northern Canada to exploit Oil Shale. British Petroleum has been a major player in the Caspian Sea reserve operating out of Azerbaijan. Chevron (where Condoleeza Rice was director for many years) is a major player in the Northern Caspian operating in Kazakhstan.  (Remember BP was a major investor in Alaskan Oil and every US major was involved in some fashion with North Sea Oil).

And every time they threaten Iran with sanctions, or leak press reports of invasion plans, the price of oil keeps notching up to where they need it to go! Go, Ahmadinejad, go! Open your mouth. You’re saying exactly what they want you to say... to push up prices.

Whether you like them or not (and I do not), Iran’s Mullahs are incredibly shrewd and fully appreciate the situation. They fully understand the hypocrisy in a US nuclear agreement with India ... that has not only developed nuclear weapons but is not even a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Or for example consider the hypocrisy of last week’s warm welcome in Washington DC to one of Africa’s most despicable dictators from Equatorial Guinea (sitting on newly discovered oil fields) with even a press announcement by Rice’s office welcoming “America’s friend”. The Mullahs also fully understand the dynamics of the oil market and have everything to gain by increasing the level of tension... after all, 1/7th of Iran’s rising oil revenue goes directly to the “Supreme Leader’s” account.

The Mullahs also understand the dynamics of America’s democracy. Between now and November, they will systematically undermine the Republican Party (in the same way they helped undermine Jimmy Carter and the Democrats in the 80’s) and help drag Dubya to his political gallows.

It will be November soon, and I will make a prediction: the Republican Party will lose its majority in both the Senate and the House. And with that loss, Dubya will not only be hampered but may face impeachment before leaving office.

The Mullahs are much wiser than the Shah ever was, and they will not be undermined after carrying out Dubya’s dirty deeds.

Here is how it will unfold:

- First of all Iran’s Mullahs will continue their systematic destabilization of Iraq, while ironically gaining more influence in Iraq. From providing arms to the Mahdi Army, to engineering their puppet Shia party’s ‘democratic’ rise to Iraq’s top posts, to covertly handing out bombs to the insurgents ... they have completely undermined US policy and influence.  In effect, the United States has spent $300+ Billion, lost over 2000 US service men’s lives to have only executed on Iran’s foreign policy for the Mullahs. Iranian influence has grown substantially, not only in Iraq but also in Afghanistan. And the Republicans will go to the polls in November with what will be a foreign policy debacle. Escalating costs and death tolls in Iraq will continue to erode public confidence... and help the Democrats march into congress. I really would not be surprised if the Mullah’s have established back door links with the US Democratic Party to begin a process of humiliating Dubya between now and November by fomenting more insurgency in Iraq ... to be rewarded with direct relations in a future “Democrat Administration”. Remember, John Kerry had committed to establishing direct relations with the Mullahs if elected.

- Secondly, Iran’s Mullahs have called Dubya’s bluff on the nuclear issue. Dubya’s false bravado of ‘all options are on the table’ and leaks of military strikes have not budged the Mullahs an inch from their core nuclear agenda. They rightly understand that with a steady decline in Iraq’s stability, and American public’s regret over how Iraq has turned out... the very last thing America wants or will support is an incursion into Iran. Not only America’s public, but America’s allies will not support it either. It’s a poker table bluff with a lot chips on the table. While Dubya has been able to achieve his goal of driving up oil prices, he comes off like a loser every time the Mullahs call his bluff. Oh yes, Dubya will push for sanctions, I am sure. But, the Mullahs are professional sanction busters and smugglers. They have survived sanctions before and they will do so in the future. When news reports emerged of a potential strike on Iran to put psychological pressure on the Mullahs ... the Mullahs rebuffed with war games firing missiles into a dummy ship in the Persian Gulf (threatening to shut off oil deliveries) and then announced that they had in fact enriched Uranium. Tit for tat... and higher oil prices.

- Thirdly, Iran’s Mullahs have aligned themselves more closely with Russia and China -- more closely than the US. Putin has fooled Dubya, “while Dubya looked into his eyes and penetrated Putin’s soul”. Putin has turned out to be a double crossing dog, who has systematically sold nuclear technology and weapons systems to Iran, while abolishing democracy at home. The Chinese rightly understand they have to protect their own long-term energy interests -- and thus protect Iran to simply protect their own security. China has signed over $100 Billion of new energy contracts with Iran in past 30 days.

China, Russia, and Iran have all been seriously undermined by current American and British Plans to exploit Central Asia’s vast hydrocarbon reserves from under their noses. They simply calculate that deepening failure in Iraq will eventually lead to a pull out from the whole region ... allowing them to inevitably ‘takeover’ these oil and gas fields after all the initial investments are made by the US. Russia, China and Iran are signatories to the Shanghai Accord ... working more closely now than ever before. They all view their future relations with the United States pessimistically, with strong potential for deterioration on many fronts (especially economic). Their actions clearly imply that they have more to gain financially and strategically by working together in the future than by engaging with the United States.

The more polarized this situation becomes, the more the Mullahs will be able to fuse their existence with Iranian nationalism and drum up popular support. Although, my evidence is anecdotal, I believe they have transformed popular Iranian hatred against them into popular support by confronting the United States and Israel. And, the Mullahs are also fusing themselves with anti-Israeli sentiment in other parts of the Middle East -- helping fan support for their puppets in Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestinian Territories and reinforce their alliance with Syria. For example, they recently announced they would provide financial support to the Hamas government in Palestine... after US; European; Japanese; and Israeli aid was cut off... as another nasty Hamas suicide bomber exploded in Israel.

Dubya can certainly increase anti-Iranian rhetoric to drive up oil prices but Dubya will appear impotent if he threatens but takes no real action against the Mullahs.

He really does not have an option to deflect America’s public with a war with Iran. We all know the Mullahs will not be confronted militarily. America’s public will not allow it or fund it. And, because as Dubya knows too well, the United States signed the “Algiers Treaty” providing these security assurances to the Mullahs. Under this treaty, the United States can not interfere either politically or militarily in Iranian affairs -- because at the end of the US embassy hostage crisis, his daddy secretly negotiated this deal while he was running with Ronald Reagan for the Presidency. The Mullahs agreed to hold the hostages and humiliate Jimmy Carter in exchange for these security assurances from the Republicans. The tables are turning now!

Dubya’s political options are very limited -- and he will lose much more than the November elections... he will lose the war against terrorism that he started on behalf of America.

This is a tragedy because it is clear to me that the Mullahs must eventually be confronted and that there must be regime change in Iran. The war on Islamic Fundamentalism and terrorism is now very real. And it will not be won while Iran’s Mullahs remain in power. Not only are they providing direct support to terrorists (Hamas, Hisbullah, and Islamic Jihad), but as long as Iran's mullahs remain in power, their wealth, power and success will continue to inspire and entice religious leaders from Morocco to Egypt to Iraq to Lebanon to Malaysia, to work towards their own Islamic revolutions, and nullify the forces of moderation and democracy. And terrorism will go on.

Thus, Dubya should take on the Mullahs -- but can not do so. And without dealing with the Mullahs, history will judge George Bush’s work as unfinished. Terrorism could escalate. Iran will increase its influence in Iraq and Afghanistan at America’s expense. Iran will enhance its nuclear capabilities. Iran will enhance its strategic alliance with China and Russia.

Meanwhile the situation in Iraq will worsen and he will look like even more of a fool. And with rising interest rates and gas hitting $3 a gallon, the US economy will begin to tank. And in the fall, just before elections there will be painful reminders of the Katrina debacle... All during pre-election season. The Democrats will portray him as a loser ... and could win.

No matter what he does, Dubya will be damned. He will lose his political foothold in November. With his ‘war’ unfinished, US economic and political interests will have been damaged irreparably. He will leave behind a legacy of failure and losses for the United States. He could end his term by being impeached... which is what militant democrats are threatening.

While his buddy, Lee Raymond (Exxon’s CEO) takes home a record a $70 Million compensation package with a $100 Million bonus; or, while his defense contractor buddies run off with record bonuses; Dubya could find himself retired in 2008 (when he turns 65) and take home a legacy of shame and not much in his pocket.

The only way he could turn around the situation is if he could somehow engineer major change inside Iran by proxy. Like for example an internal implosion by Iranian dissidents or major regionalized ethnic ‘revolutions’ in Kurdistan, Baluchestan, Azarbaijan, Khuzestan, etc. ... leading to a breakup of the central government. US could then bring in ‘coalition’ troops in to help stabilize the place and look like the legendary and historic ‘hero’ ... almost like Ronald Reagan today. But the chances of all this happening are slim. Iran’s ethnic minorities have a history of protecting Iran’s national interests. And the Mullah’s have effectively muzzled all opposition.

And so by November, Dubya might look like a loser with a big L across his forehead ... not a W.

For letters section
To Jalil Bahar

Jalil Bahar



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