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After twelve years as the Co-director of Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation, Scott Sagan is stepping down, ostensibly to have more time for writing. Given how prolific Scott was during his Co-directorship, I think he’s just trying to embarrass the rest of us.

Scott’s essay, “Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons? Three Models in Search of a Bomb” (International Security, 1996/7), is a must read for aspiring wonks. He takes issue with explanations of the Bomb’s spread that dwell too heavily on national security. Scott acknowledges that the “security model” matters greatly, but it doesn’t explain why states in rough neighborhoods, like Ukraine or Egypt, haven’t sought or stopped seeking the Bomb. In Scott’s view, “multicausality…lies at the heart of the proliferation problem.” Other key drivers, he argues, are “more parochial and less obvious,” including domestic politics, internal bureaucratic struggles (“the domestic politics model”) and how states define their quest for symbols of modernity and identity (“the norms model”).

Domestic politics and norms can result either in bomb programs or restraint. For example, domestic politics and economics greatly delayed India’s nuclear weapon-related milestones before interest group pressures and security concerns tipped the scales in favor of the Bomb. In contrast, domestic politics and norms in Japan continue to militate against acquisition of nu... >>>