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MK

Thx for replying, highly appreciated. 

One doesn't need to be Iranian to know about Bakhtiar, Tabatabaei, the chain murders, R. Hariri, embassy in Argentina and the rest.

Btw, I wasn't referring to anglo forums. Rather to French, Italian and Croatian. 

Out of this, otherwise, good blog. ;o) 

PS. am neither anti-US (rather pro), nor conspiracy theory adherent.

Regarding IC participants

Yes most of "us" are aware of crimes of IRI but for some it does not automatically mean "trust" any allegation. However there is a group that has beliefs more aligned with Neoconservatives.

That group tends to be dominant on IC. Why: because the nature of the group has changed in two ways:

1) A large number of people who were either sympathetic to the regime NP; Molla or neutral have left or been banned.

2) Others opposed to the regime but less inclined to believe every allegation started avoiding some blogs. Because we get attacked; labeled and so on. 

By most standards I am considered a strong opponent of the regime. But by IC standards I have got called an IRI agent. Go figure. It tends to push people to self imposed segregation based on blogs. 

As for myself I am more in line with general American public. I am as cynical as most Americans about WMD. I am a tax payer and resent having my neighbor sent to wars to come back dead. Or to fund a war with money better used to build a school. While Dick Cheney gets rich. 

Rea

Dear Rea,

The participants on this site are, by and large, Iranians who are fully aware of the actual history of the IRI. They KNOW about the large number of assassinations abroad as well as the chain murders of dissidents and intellectuals inside Iran carried out by the Iranian government. For example the writings of the opposition members on this site is simply the best published anywhere.

Of course the IRI officials have always denied their role despite hard evidence. The IRI has agents whose job is to spread IRI’s propaganda. In my opinion, it is unimaginable that the IRI does not have agents on this site.

There are also others who write their views.

There are also Iranians who believe that the U.S. allegation is true but they are afraid of war so that they say that we should LIE about the facts and say that the IRI did not do this. In my opinion, by denying facts, they simply undermine their credibility. We have to be honest.

In Europe and the U.S. there are many who oppose the U.S. foreign policy. They think that ALL these American officials lie. There is a huge difference between the officials of various governments and many objective scholars on the one hand, and many who like to post on various blogs on the other. For example, I have seen the huge difference between the comments in the Guardian site and the policies of the British government, scholars and experts. Most comments on the Guardian site did not believe the U.S. while almost all the British officials believe the U.S. allegation. The governments of the UK, EU, and Canada have already imposed sanctions on the 5 persons that the U.S. designated as top individuals in the plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador. The Saudi government also accepted the American findings and has made official complaint to the UN Security Council.

We have to see what other governments do in the ensuing days and weeks.

In the U.S. with very few exceptions (Ron Paul), the actual officials (Democrat and Republican) in the executive and legislative branches believe the allegation. There are many individuals outside the government who for a variety of reasons promote conspiracy garbage.  As one of the commentators on this site correctly observed some are right-wingers who do not believe anything Obama says, and some are leftists who support anyone who opposes the U.S. Some are saying these nutty things to endear themselves to the vf regime. Some just believe in conspiracy junk. And some who simply cannot imagine the vf regime would do such a thing.

My 2 cents,

Masoud

Dear Faramarz and AI on the Role of Khamenei on Assassination

Dear Faramarz,

Thank you for the explanation. I think you might be up to something: things were going badly so Khamenei and QF decide to do something big in the U.S. to rally their supporters.

Thanks again,

Masoud

========================================　

Dear AI,

Glad you liked the article. You are welcome.

Some speculating that an element in IRI did this. Although the IRI is an oligarchy, and there are serious differences of opinion, I do not see this as a "rogue" operation. Historically, they had a committee composed of the Supreme Leader, President, Foreign Minister, and Minister of Intelligence who decided upon the assassinations aborad. The Supreme Leader had to support it. From what we know about the chain murders of the dissidents inside, it was done by the order of the Supreme Leader and carried out by the Ministry of Intelligence. The so-called rogue element, Saeed Imami (or Saeed Islami) was the Deputy of Ministry of Intelligence. It is widely believed that Saeed Imami got his orders from Dorri-Najafabadi, the Minister of Intelligence, who got the order from the Supreme Leader’s office.

This is not to say that no one on their own did not kill or try to kill others (e.g., the right-wing dude who made the assassination attempt at Saeed Hajarian).

Therefore, from what is known by scholars on the decision-making in IRI, the death squad in Iran is an official entity under the control of the Supreme Leader. The officials of the IRI simply LIE and deny that they have actually assassinated Bakhtiar, or Ghassemlou, or Sharafkandi, etc. And the supporters of the vf regime have always tried to cast doubt on the role of the regime in the assassinations abroad.

There are elements in the ruling oligarchy that want a LIMITED military engagement with the U.S. or Israel. I do not think that Khamenei is one of them. Khamenei has already suppressed both the reformists and the democratic opposition. So, he really does not need an excuse. Also one could never know how the U.S. attack would look like.

In conclusion, I do not think that the plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador and the bombing of Israeli and Saudi embassies in Washington was a rogue operation. My analysis is that it was ordered by the Supreme Leader Khamenei and conducted by the Qods Force.

Best,

Masoud

Rea

This forum is not representative of general Iranian thinking. It is overrun by a particular point of view. The others do not bother with it. I am only posting in response to you. Otherwise it is a mutual admiration society.

Masoud Jaan

I have no evidence that the rift between Ahmadi and Rahbar back in May 2011 had a direct bearing on this terror plot. But what I am putting forward is that the Regime looked extremely weak and fragile at that point. Ahmadi has his own domestic and international followers. There are people in the Middle East that like the narrative of the ugly son of a blacksmith that wears Members Only jacket can go to the UN and challenge the world powers.

However, I am of the opinion that the fissure in the Regime back in the spring of 2011 forced Seapah to take a more muscular posture externally and show that all was well on the home front and the big guys were in charge. The only way that they could have demonstrated that was by some spectacular activities outside. That’s what al-Qaeda has been trying to do for years. Do something big to impress the base and the followers.

I also believe that there has been two watershed moments in the recent life of the Regime. The first being the 2009 "elections" and the decision to do away with the "reform". The second one being Ahmadi's insubordination and hence to do away with the Presidency.

At the end, no matter how we look at it, IR is a military Regime like N. Korea, Libya, Syria or Saddam's Iraq. 

Funny

Comparing different European forums with IC, it is precisely here I find majority of people believe in this higly elaborate IRI plot to kill so n so.

Personally, if there is anything I believe, it's that IRI is falling apart to the point where even low ranks are calling the shots nowadays. But low ranks is not high ranks. If anything, they are expendable.

Great Analysis!

This was a good read. Thank you. 

What about the theory that elements in IRI want to start a war/want an attack on the IRI calculating the following:

1) There would be no land invasion

2) They can survive such attack

3) Any attack on the IRI would suppress the opposition and would prolong the life of the regime  

Faramarz jaan

Dear Faramarz,

Thank you for your kind words. I agree with you on the situation in April/May when the regime officials decided.

The caliber of the analysis on this site by contributors like you and several others is soooooooo much higher than so much published work on many othe sites, it is amazing.  I read so many utter garbag and junk last week, it was really shocking.  I think the BEST debunking of conspiracy theories any where have been done by contributors like you (and several others) on this very site.  I am so proud of the quality of the posters on this site.

I do have one question. There was a conflict between Ahmadi and Khamenei and Ahmadi did not show up for work for 11 days; Quds Forces is under the control of Khamenei. What might benefit Khamanei to use the QF for assassination in the internal struggle? My initial hunch is that it was not an internal power struggle, but rather to inflict pain on U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

I agree with you about showing its power to its allies was a major factor. I do not get the part on what is the connection to the internal power struggle.

I also have a feeling that the decision-making in IRI has changed since June 2009. I think a lot of such decision might now be made solely by the Supreme Leader, and the QF and/or IRGC simply follow the VF’s order. I have not seen anything that would show that president, foreign minister, and minister of intelligence are out of the loop on such major decisions, but I think this is how things have evolved (or evolving).

Kind regards,

Masoud

Who, What and Why

Thank you Masoud Khan for a well-researched and quite comprehensive article about this topic. There is so much conspiracy theories going on about this revelation that it is great to see a detailed blog about who, what and why.

Here are a couple of points that I would like to add to your article.

These activities by the Regime started back in April/May timeframe when the Arab Spring was blossoming and at full force and there was no hint of an Islamic awakening as the Regime claims. These activities also coincided with Ahmadi’s head-banging with Rahbar and his disappearance from the scene for more than a week. Also on May 1 US Special Ops put an end to Osama which was initially rejected by the Regime as a hoax.

Back in May, the Regime was at its weakest point both domestically and internationally and it needed to show its clients (Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas and Iraqi Shia’s) that it was still in control. So it embarked on a series of activities including attacking US forces in Iraq. As we know, June was the deadliest month for the US forces in Iraq in quite a while.

The plot in DC against the Saudi Ambassador, as you have detailed is consistent with what the Regime has done in Europe in the past. The amateurish nature of the plot merely indicates that the regime does not have assets in the US to call upon and has to go with what it has.

One critical fact that has emerged after 9/11 is that Muslim-Americans are patriotic Americans and peaceful Muslims and while they disagreed with Bush’s policies in Iraq, they showed their displeasure through peaceful protest. And Iranian-Americans as a group have also rejected violence and terrorism. Although this does not mean that there is never a “lone wolf” out there like Colonel Nidal Hasan or Mr. Arbabsiar who for whatever motive would act against the US.

Thanks again.

Dear Vildermose

While I get it and respect you but it is not "Iran". It is the Hizibllahi or Basiji or Islamist whatever that does the killing. Iran is a nation. But it is the regime that does the murders not Iran.

How Iran Kills Abroad by

How Iran Kills Abroad by Roya Hakakian:
 

 //online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204346104576637242695335156.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." - Louis D. Brandeis

Dear Bahmani

That is my point. Why do people harp on this because we already have proof of other hits. No one did a *** thing. One way or other IRI is guilty. The only difference is that other hits were against Iranians and we don't matter.

If 200 Iranians are hit not a word. One Saudi MAY be hit then all *** breaks loose! That makes me sick. If people are upset then be upset about the 1000's of Iranian people in jail right now being tortured; raped and murdered.

Wrong blog?

Dear Bruce,

I think you posted your view on the wrong blog.  I think you, other thoughtful posters on this blog, and myself accept the veracity of the U.S. allegation.

Best,

Masoud

What's your opinion? Stop posting from other SITES!!!

Thanks for doing my browsing for me, but really this has to stop! The laziness of some who copy and paste other articles and think it is "good journalism"!

Look, you either believe the Iranian plot was real, or you think it was a planned US conspiracy to make Iran look bad. Excuse me, worse.

If it was real, it is one more in the over 200 established , known, proven beyond a reasonable doubt hits by the Iranian government on foreign soil. Add to that by a factor of 100, even more hits on Iranian soil!

This makes the Iranian government guilty of using terror and assassination on Iranians and foreigners to achieve their goals. There is no denying that. You don't get a pass on that if the US made one of them up.

If you think it is a US conspiracy and this whole thing was a CIA set up to make Iran look bad, excuse me worse, that is certainly your right and I'll even admit the case as we have seen the evidence thus far, could appear this way given all we don't know and the proof we haven't seen.

But please don't trick yourself into forgetting and forgiving the other 200 hits, and 1000 times more inside Iran, with this possibly US conspired one.

Because that's just plain foolish.

To read more bahmani posts visit: //brucebahmani.blogspot.com/

I agree

Dear GR,

I agree with everything you wrote.

Best,

Masoud

Dear Masoud:

How can a regime which publicly states its objectives to spread its revolution and kill its real and imaginary enemies be trusted? IR criminals are still using pre-revolutionary slogans such as, death to this or that country. They are publicly threatening to unleash their hired goons to kill and create chaos in the whole world. As I have said on many occasions before, for us Iranians, the most urgent question is how to bring down the hated and ruthless regime in Tehran and establish freedom and democracy in Iran.

Roozbah jaan; sepas gozaram

Roozbeh jaan,

Thank you for your kind and generous remarks. They mean a lot, my friend.

Ti jana ghorban,

Masoud

Mamnoon hamsade jaan

Dear hamsade ghadimi,

Thank you for your kind words.

I do not know what Obama would do during his second term. That is a real mystery to me.

Lets hope that Obama succeeds in convincing Russia, China, and Turkey to enact real sanctions on oil from the vf regime in the next few weeks. That would be the best for all.

Best,

Masoud

At last, a solid and well written analysis on this issue.

Thanks dear masoud for writing this good article and sharing it with us. 

"Personal business must yield to collective interest."

very well-written article;

very well-written article; although, i don't share your view on your very last sentence: i think that america is war-weary and would use allies and its own proxies to counter iran if there was to be a republican in charge.  and if obama gets a second turn, his administration will take more chances and hard stances both in domestic and international issues.  at any rate, a minor difference of opinion.

also, your publication in a turkish journal, in my opinion, has much important readership than if it was to published in an american journal.  kudos to you and good job.

Anyone questioning

the official Obama line is an IRI supporter right? So about half American comment posters on CNN and NY Times work for IRI with that logic. I see very interesting. In reality people are cynical about all governments.

Most people I know do not believe ANY government: IRI; USA; or UK. Nor do they believe any news organization. These are Americans not Iranians. They got lied to by too many people too many time.  

After the WMD fiasco; several rounds of economic crash no one trusts anyone. With good reason. When your job does not feel safe. You got no retirement money you get cynical. When you get cheated in every deal you don't trust anyone.

Dear G. Rahmanian

Dear G. Rahmanian,

Thank you for your kind words.

I was really surprised at the conspiracy theories. It was expected from some of them. In the PressTV interview, they had an "expert" who not only disputed IRI’s role in the assassination plot, but also the killing of bin Laden, and 9/11.

I also expected the IRI to lie and its supporters to cast doubt on IRI’s role (as they had done with the assassinations of Dr. Bakhtiar, Dr. Ghassemlou, and Dr. Sharafkani), and terrorist attacks in Argentina and Saudi Arabia. That is what they do.

The notion that President Obama would lie, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would lie, Attorney General Holder would lie, FBI Director Mueller would lie, and all that for the sole reason of pushing some minor sanctions is amazing. The LAST thing Obama wanted was a confrontation with the vf regime.

Anyway, as time goes on, more evidence will surface and we will see who some of the people will react.

Best,

Masoud

Dear Masoud,

Great job. Very informative and to the point. IR's crimes cannot be whitewashed by simply coming up with conspiracy theories involving the US, Saudi and Israeli governments.

Vildemose jaan, Thank You

Dear Vildemose,

Glad you liked my article. 

Best,

Masoud

 Wow, MK Jan, You hit the

 Wow, MK Jan, You hit the nail squarely on the head. Excellent job of connecting the dots; a very hard job to do in this case I might add. Well done...Hope to read more of your articles.

"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." - Louis D. Brandeis

You Welcome

Dear IranFirst,

Glad you liked it.

Best,

Masoud

Thank you Dr. Kazemzadeh

Thank you for your great detailed Analysis.