Israel 'prepared for 30-day war with Iran'
bbc
15-Aug-2012 (4 comments)

Israel's outgoing home front defence minister says an attack on Iran would likely trigger a month-long conflict that would leave 500 Israelis dead.

Matan Vilnai told the Maariv newspaper that the fighting would be "on several fronts", with hundreds of missiles fired at Israeli towns and cities.

Israel was prepared, he said, though strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities had to be co-ordinated with the US.

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Darius Kadivar

Genuine Intention or Psychological Warfare?

by Darius Kadivar on Wed Aug 15, 2012 09:14 AM PDT

Jonathan Marcus
BBC Diplomatic Correspondent

 

The text of the purported Israeli cabinet memo is just that, text. There is no document as such and thus it is impossible to verify if it is indeed an Israeli cabinet paper of some kind. But its purpose for Richard Silverstein is clear. He believes it was passed by a serving officer to the politician and then leaked by him precisely to alert the outside world to the scale of Israel's military plan to strike at Iran and thus to reduce the chances of it ever happening.

An unprecedented public debate is under way in Israel on the wisdom of launching an attack against Iran. And this leaked document, whatever its source, and whatever its original purpose, has become an element in that debate.

The document itself is striking in both the scale and scope of the military operation that it proposes. It also employs a range of technologies, many of which we have known that the Israelis are developing, but this document suggests that they are battle-ready and fully operational.



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FG

If Israel decides to attack...

by FG on Wed Aug 15, 2012 05:56 PM PDT

...nothing the USA says or does can stop it from doing so.  In cases like this, Israel always insists it will folllow its own interests even where they conflict with US national security interests.  Bear in mind the hard line Israeli leadership hates Obama as much as Tea Party types.

A good example of where Israel's hard liners defy the US is the West Bank settlements (I'd like to see sanctions as strong as those on Saddam until these are removed but the GOP and religious right has far too much political clout to allow it)

Given the anticipated level of Israeli casualties and damage to Israel, I supect Israel will calculate that those losses are acceptable.  What it comes down to is, like everything else (sanctions, political isolation, a police state, rotten elections, total censorship and a lack of democracy) this problem between Israel and the IRI would not exist if the IRI were to fall.   

Though I despise Israel's policies, I must admit that for years Khamenei has gone out of his way to inflict casualities and damage on Israel over many years now.  All Hezbollah attacks are correctly seen as proxy attacks by Israel.  Witness the recent schemes in Thailand, Bulgaria, Kenya, etc.

Would a country that consistently supports such covert attacks on Israel (and the USA as well) hesitate at a surprise attack on Israel?  It's understandable that Isreaels expect to get nuked if the IRI gets such weapons.  Khamenei and the mullahs like to gamble and think only short term.

Should Israel attack first, one thing is certain.  It will come with no warning neither to Iran, the USA or the world.  Here's an article from Foreign Policy that argues Israel isn't bluffing.   The title is "The Drums of August."

//www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/08/15/the_drums_of_august


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ayatoilet1

This surely is actually not about Iran ...

by ayatoilet1 on Wed Aug 15, 2012 03:33 PM PDT

Real or unreal, this is NOT about Iran. Israel surely has another agenda and it has nothing to do with Iran. An attack on Iran does NOT make sense for Israel. Its a huge risk with no real pay off damaging Iran (and they know they will NOT be able to completely destroy ALL of Iran's nuclear arsenal).

But if Israel can march into Lebanon (and grab at least 50 miles) it will grab a huge set of oil and gas fields in the mediteranean. Or if the attack can somehow help Romney get elected. Or if the regime in Iran is destabilized (which is unlikely because Iranians typically rally for any government to save their country) ....and a new pro-Israel government comes to power in Iran then that too could be part of the calculation. Except for the portion involving Lebanon, everything else is NOT certain. Is grabbing land in Lebanon worth an attack? Is it worth Israeli lives? Really?? That much oil and gas to be won!! And then how are they supposed to pipe this gas to Europe through the rest of Lebanon?? And then the new Alawite state in Syria??

If this is Netenyahu's plan. He's a real gambler. Its a long-shot. And, surely this is NOT about Iran. It just can't be. There is nothing of substance for Israel from any attack.

My issue with all this, is that it will change life as we know it in America. No one should be under any illusion that a war between Israel and Iran will have no impact on the rest of the world. This could be really devastating. It will change our lives.


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Faramarz

The Details of the Plan

by Faramarz on Wed Aug 15, 2012 10:06 AM PDT

 

Thanks DK.

Here are the details of the plan. It is interesting that the new plan is completely different from the old one that had been leaked / made public for a few years.

" The Israeli attack will open with a coordinated strike,
including an unprecedented cyber-attack which will totally paralyze the
Iranian regime and its ability to know what is happening within its
borders.  The internet, telephones, radio and television, communications
satellites, and fiber optic cables leading to and from critical
installations—including underground missile bases at Khorramabad and
Isfahan—will be taken out of action.  The electrical grid throughout
Iran will be paralyzed and transformer stations will absorb severe
damage from carbon fiber munitions which are finer than a human hair,
causing electrical short circuits whose repair requires their complete
removal.  This would be a Sisyphean task in light of cluster munitions
which would be dropped, some time-delayed and some remote-activated
through the use of a satellite signal.

A barrage of tens of ballistic missiles would be launched from Israel
toward Iran.  300km ballistic missiles [R.S.-this might be a reference
to the Popeye Turbo]
would be launched from Israeli submarines in the vicinity of the
Persian Gulf.  The missiles would not be armed with unconventional
warheads [WMD], but rather with high-explosive ordnance equipped with
reinforced tips designed specially to penetrate hardened targets.

The missiles will strike their targets—some exploding above ground
like those striking the nuclear reactor at Arak–which is intended to
produce plutonium and tritium—and the nearby heavy water production
facility; the nuclear fuel production facilities at Isfahan and
facilities for enriching uranium-hexaflouride.  Others would explode
under-ground, as at the Fordo facility.

A barrage of hundreds of cruise missiles will pound command and
control systems, research and development facilities, and the residences
of senior personnel in the nuclear and missile development apparatus. 
Intelligence gathered over years will be utilized to completely
decapitate Iran’s professional and command ranks in these fields.

After the first wave of attacks, which will be timed to the second, the “Blue and White” radar satellite,
whose systems enable us to perform an evaluation of the level of damage
done to the various targets, will pass over Iran.  Only after rapidly
decrypting the satellite’s data, will the information be transferred
directly to war planes making their way covertly toward Iran.  These IAF
planes will be armed with electronic warfare gear previously unknown to
the wider public, not even revealed to our U.S. ally.  This equipment
will render Israeli aircraft invisible.  Those Israeli war planes which
participate in the attack will damage a short-list of targets which
require further assault.

Among the targets approved for attack—Shihab 3
and Sejil ballistic missile silos, storage tanks for chemical
components of rocket fuel, industrial facilities for producing missile
control systems, centrifuge production plants and more."

 


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