Let is not be mistaken Bachar al Assad must be toppled ... Yet however legitimate and inevitable the struggle against the clearly illegitimate Ba'athist regime, I'm afraid nevertheless that a Post Assad Syria will still look very ugly ...
Not only in terms of vengeance but also instability with geo strategic consequences beyond it's immediate borders with far reaching ramifications ranging from Lebanon, Jordan to Iraq and even Gaza.
From a purely Iranian perspective I am wary that the overthrow of Assad which ultimately is a 'Moral Must' will nevertheless benefit Iran despite the IRI's support for Assad and ironically may actually lead to normalizations of relations between the IRI and the Western Governments ( probably even encouraged by Russia) fearful of a Sunni Jihadist Salafist Uprising in the region ...
The geo strategic cards in the Middle East will be redistributed based on the ever changing reality on the ground and eventual threats against prospects of any form of regional stability or instability depending on whose side regional powers will want to side with.
The scars of this conflict are far too deep to hope that the final outcome will be a rosy 'Jeffersonian democracy' which the impotent Western Powers hope for ...
According to George Malbrunot (French Daily Correspondent for Le Figaro) the Rebels in recent weeks have scored major victories against the Assad Regime notably in inflicting serious blows to it's Airforce thanks to anti aircraft Cobra missiles delivered by the Qataris who have equipped and probably trained them with some help from Turkey ...
The Airport of Aleppo is said to be a major strategic stronghold for Assad's regime which to date was used by the Syrian Air force in order to deliver and drop arms and necessary equipment to it's own regiments but the fact that the Airplanes and helicopters are now being targeted efficiently by the rebels could hint that we are at a turning point in this conflict which has lasted far too long after more than a year and where the death toll is said to have gone beyond 40 000 with hundreds of thousands of syrian refugees crossing the frontiers every day into neighboring Jordan and Turkey ...
Some experts estimate that if the rebels continue gaining ground as they are right now Assad will be forced to abandon Northern Syria (basically the Kurdish region) by Mid 2013 ( maybe earlier given the unpredictability of the conflict) ...
The Syrian Capital Damascus is regularly faced with bomb attacks be them suicide missions or other which some suspect may hint to the presence of foreign Jihadists but which could be merely the logical consequence of this Fratricide Civil War ...
Either way the Fall of Assad may not put an end to the continued bloodshed ...
This is where I'm afraid what is at risk in the Middle East is less a nuclear arms race in the face of an eventual nuclear Iran but rather a race for conventional weapons delivered by Western Powers, even Israel but also Russia and China who will all try to sell their ever sophisticated equipment to all those involved through proxy nations like Qatar, Turkey or Jordan ...
It is a cynical scenario but one which could ultimately become a reality mainly because the International community refused to interfere in Syria early on ...
It took One Month for the French UK coalition endorsed by the Arab League to convince the UN to vote the 1973 Resolution which aimed at protecting the civilians ...
In the case of Syria no resolution has been voted since the beginning of the crisis after a bloody Year Long conflict.
It is said that the current Syrian coalition which has replaced the former Syrian Transitional Council is far more united and that it’s current leader a moderate sunni cleric is a rallying figure … Let’s hope so …
Otherwise the stigmas of the Syrian Civil War will have far reaching consequences and the international community and the UN Security council in particular will be held morally accountable for their lack of initiative in one of the darkest chapters in the history of this organization since it's inception in 1948 ...
The Outcome of a Post Assad Syria will be far less predictable than what we saw in Libya so will the instability that will surface with maybe vendettas and revengeful reactions against various minorities ( including the Christians) ...
The Kurdish question also adds to the explosive equation ...
These are only a handful of reasons as to why I'm very pessimistic about the future of the Middle East and wary that Democracy may not truly prevail in a near future for the large majority of the people in the region as some wishful thinkers hope for ...
I'm afraid what we are seeing in Syria today is merely a prelude to a far more bitter conflict or conflicts to come and reminiscent of what Europe faced during World War One and the Balkanization of Eastern Europe ...
All that said I hope I'm Wrong ...
For Syria ultimately deserves better representatives than Assad and his bloody henchmen or the Jihadists …
Thursday 29th Of November 2012
LESSONS FROM WW I
Was World War I the error of modern history?: Oxford historian Niall Ferguson reviews the world's oldest motives for war, and concludes in his book, "The Pity of War" , that World War I was unnecessary. (Originally aired November 2000).
Sofex: The Business of War – Jordan (May 21, 2012): SOFEX is where the world's leading generals come to buy everything from handguns to laser-guided missile systems. It stands for "Special Operations Forces Exhibition Conference" and it's essentially a trade-show where just about anyone with enough money can buy the most powerful weapons in the world. Hosted by Shane Smith | Originally released in 2012 at//vice.com
(Video Courtesy: journeymanpictures)
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