End of energy subsidies + up coming sanctions = End of IRI

Faramarz_Fateh
by Faramarz_Fateh
15-Oct-2009
 

As many of you know, most energy related products and services in Iran have been heavily subsidized for the past 30 years.  There were subsidies during the time of the Shah but the extent became much more significant under the current regime. For obvious reason of keeping the economically less fortunate quiet.

Due to Iran's very fragile current economic condition the government does not have a choice but to end or drastically reduce these subsides.  And they have.  Subsidized products and services for example regular gasoline, diesel gas, natural gas, electricity and even water will no longer be cheap.

Friends of ours in Iran are saying that they expect their gas and electricity costs to rise 100-300%.  The situation is so bad that its effecting sales of cars with larger than 1600cc engines, rents, industrial goods and much more.

This is very good news for the long term.  In the short term, Iranians living in Iran will suffer.  No doubt about that.

But this is THE right time for some economic sanctions to go into effect; sanctions on imported gasoline will be a good start.

While its true that no other government on the face of the earth, especially U.S., U.K., China and Russia give a damn about Iran or Iranians, and we should not count on or trust any foreign government with Iran's future, IMHO I think long term its best for Iran to get rid of the current regime and pay a cost now instead of putting up with it another 10, 20 or 30 years.

The only thing is that protests and strikes need to continue so pressure remains relentless.  

 

Balatarin
Share/Save/Bookmark

Recently by Faramarz_FatehCommentsDate
What to do with shrine of Khomeini after Revolution III
29
Jan 30, 2010
# of Palestinian mercenaries in Iran to surpass 10,000 by 22 Bahman
42
Jan 26, 2010
1 down, 1 to go; Yesterday Karroubi, Tomorrow Mousavi
4
Jan 25, 2010
more from Faramarz_Fateh
 
Faramarz_Fateh

Vildemose & Fatollah

by Faramarz_Fateh on Sat Oct 17, 2009 03:57 PM PDT

Since this is a "BLOG", there is NO need to for links.  These are personal opinions not academic white papers.

The same way you have relatives and friends in Iran, so do I.  With lots of free time on my hands I can also call Iran although this may not have occurred to some. 

From what I have been told, its end of subsidies for MOST energy related services and products; electricity, gas, gasoline etc 


  •  
Fatollah

sanctions!?

by Fatollah on Sat Oct 17, 2009 03:06 PM PDT

Mr. FF. who's side are you on? sanctions do not and will not work! sanctions will only hurt ordinary people of Iran, elderly and children to name a few.

-F


  •  
Anonymous8

i think this is a wishful thinking

by Anonymous8 on Sat Oct 17, 2009 11:19 AM PDT

subsidies can be reinstated anytime the way many IRI officials argue it should.


  •  
capt_ayhab

Mrs. vildemose

by capt_ayhab on Sat Oct 17, 2009 07:22 AM PDT

Talks are about stopping the subsidies for refined fuel for automobiles ONLY. I was talking to my sister in Iran and she said that they might make arrangement for reduced price of fuel for taxis and trucks.

My personal view is that they should have done it long ago. please note my previous comment as to why I think so.

Regards

-YT 


  •  
capt_ayhab

blessing in disguise

by capt_ayhab on Sat Oct 17, 2009 07:24 AM PDT

Blessing in disguise:

1. It might give much needed boast and energy to the movement.

2. Lessen traffic problem in major cities.

3. Help reduce the pollution problem which is in critical point in many major cities.

4. stop nations dependence to foreign refineries.

BUT..... calling for sanction is nothing short of treason. So as dear friend says... SANCTIONS BI SANCTIONS

-YT 


  •  
vildemose

FF: Can you provide a link

by vildemose on Fri Oct 16, 2009 02:43 PM PDT

FF: Can you provide a link to stoppage of subsidies/welfare by the IRI? Who is really going to be affected?? What socioeconomic group is on gas/oil subsidies?


  •  
Faramarz_Fateh

Dear JavadAgha

by Faramarz_Fateh on Fri Oct 16, 2009 11:39 AM PDT

I am so sorry sir.  Next time I write a blog, I'll be sure to check with you to verify it it has been discussed before.  Once I have your permission, I will initiate writing.

In the mean time, since elimination or substantial decrease of energy subsidies have JUST started, I am not sure how other bloggers knew about it?!!

May be you and other bloggers are clairvoyant or have a specially strong 6th sense for whats about to happen.

For your info, Iraq situation was, is and will be different from Iran.  Gasoline and diesel sanctions will not cause the death of anyone. 


  •  
Cost-of-Progress

Things must be bad then

by Cost-of-Progress on Fri Oct 16, 2009 10:03 AM PDT

Because the filthy mullahs know that the so called mostazeffin are a major support base for their hated regime, so they must be in a real bind to do this. The question I have is how much of their support has been backed off for the arabs (hezbollah, Pals, etc)?? Probably none.


  •  
Javadagha

Don't you read other

by Javadagha on Fri Oct 16, 2009 09:03 AM PDT

Don't you read other posts?  This topic has been discussed extensively.

Yes, sanctions work especially for Iraq by killing their ordinary people on a daily basis. 

 


  •  
Nousha Arzu

You are right to

by Nousha Arzu on Thu Oct 15, 2009 11:58 PM PDT

bring up this issue. For a long time I have believed that no revolution will happen in Iran unless the poor people join in the demonstrations -- that is, until the poor get further squeezed, economically. The mullahs have played it clever so far, by making their regime almost bearable for the poor because of all the subsidies, specially gasoline. 

And last summer's obscene oil prices did not help the cause of freedom in Iran, because it afforded the monsters in Tehran that much more money to buy the acquiesence of the poor.

That's why for a long time I've been watching oil prices, hoping for a massive drop, which would make it VERY difficult for the mullahs to continue their subsidies for a long period of time. They may weather the storm if the drop in oil prices was temporary (because they have massive reserves of cash), but they could not survive a long-term drop in oil prices.

In fact, what destroyed the Soviet Union was not so much Ronald Reagan, as it was a massive and continuous drop in oil prices in the 19880's. The Soviet empire went bankrupt, as they could not afford to ubsidise their monopolies in their central asia satellite states.

Let's just hope for a gasoline blockade, or alternatively, a massive drop in oil prices that continues for a long time -- or better yet, let's hope some smart American company comes up with an alternative fuel source, hydrogen perhaps, so as to make fossil fuels irrelevant, in the order of the horse and buggey. On that day, the mullahs will readily pack their bags of stolen cash and move to Zimbabwe.

LONG LIVE THE GLORY OF KUROSH 


  •