Musings of a former chicken

VPK aziz

I feel extremely ill equipped to respond. I have read your post and as I pointed in my earlier comment I find RP probably the prime leader for a secular movement. However, I don’t know the level of support he might have inside Iran. I have always been hoping to have a popular secular leader emerge from within, and then everyone from any kind of  secular persuasion throw their supports behind the movement. As a layman and un-intellectual, I like what RP proposes. In fact, I don’t see much difference between what Fred is advocating and what RP is proposing. Fred may be a little more practical and effective  in suggesting to cut off the source of IRR’s revenue.

What I (an uninformed ordinary Iranian in diaspora) think would help the cause, is to spread the news of eventual IRR’s downfall, and propagate the methods of civil disobedience and passive resistance to disarm the regime’s support. By passive resistance I mean general strikes and mass attendance in mosques without praying or observing strict Islamic rules with banners on everyone’s chest demanding human rights and freedom. Having said this I also think these people need to be armed to protect themselves if there was any violent reaction to their protests. They should have enough ammunition to repel the basij force, if they showed up.

The key is to weaken the Basij and Sepah. And, I agree with Fred that an airtight sanction where the source of revenue to the regime is choked off has the highest likelihood to weaken the tie between the Basij and the regime. I’m not sure about the Sepah, as it is the regime.

As far as I’m concerned, the only thing we are missing for overthrow of this evil, is a leader (the right one).        

Bijan

I am one of the people who wants regime change ASAP. I have posted my ideas and some links to those of Reza Pahlavi. What do you think of them?

I have the perfect solution

I think I should, like and stuff, blog twice a day.

And then, like and stuff, when people question my blogs, I should, like and stuff, run and write 2 more blogs every day.

 I am, like and stuff, going to ignore when people question my position and my integriiiiityyy (I am can not even spppellleellll the word).

Like and stuff, on to write 2 more blogs every day, like and stuff.

So, Moosir, your bottom-line is

1- Leave the regime alone, keep on negotiating while applying the same stuff that have proven useless since last uprising.

 2- Wait for middle class to get stronger, listen to scholars that have written books on theories of how the oppressed people will rise and change the oppressor regime… 32 years is not enough, you have to be patient, it will not happen overnight,….

 3- To expedite this process you have to file crime-against-humanity charge aginst some of the ruling authorities and limit their access to some of their foreign bank account. And, the rest of the world has to follow your time-line for regime change because you give them your personal assurance that this regime will not interfere with their national interest. Tell them to read Mr. so-and-so’s book to learn how counter-productive it is to help the oppressed. You personally guarantee that IRR will not use the Nukes as a chip to gain dominance in promoting their doctrine.

Are you really naïve enough to think the rest of the world will sit idle and watch this belligerent regime succeed in getting her hands on nuclear arms? The whole point is to rid of them before they drive the nation to the point of no-return. Your textbook ideas are prescription for this disaster. The rest of the world will not give a hoot about growth of middle class in Iran when they see their interest at risk. So, it will be prudent to expedite the overthrow by any means. Of course, it is ideal for the change to happen from within and under the leadership of a secular and democratic force.

To you, anyone who subscribes to the concept of expedited regime change is a warmonger because you have seen Iraq. That is enough lesson in history for you to discard any action that might rock the boat. What happened in 1978-79? Was it the middle class who did the job? How could an akhoond bring millions to the street? I’m sorry, but I don’t buy your logic, call me warmonger. Something needs to happen and happen soon. Forget about the Islamist opposition (the so-called green), as they are more harmful to the future of this nation than the existing Islamists. Probably RP is the closest match to a leading role, even with the baggage of royalty that he has on his shoulder.

I have noticed that you and the “Stateless Tahgord” (Fair’s title) always post comments on Fred’s blog. While I never place you in the same category as Tahgord, I can’t see why you don’t start your own blog rather than calling Fred this or that. I have a lot of respect for Fred for his dedication, persistence and depth of knowledge. To me he is a true Iranian with the most pragmatic solution to our misfortune. He has always advocated to provide moral and material support to the Iranian people inside to accomplish their mission. He is RIGHT.

Bijan

If I remember correctly you were the one who said once that you let emotions get the better of you. So I question the wisdom of even arguing with you at all if your emotion gets in the way of seeing these suggestions as positive and the best method in dethroning the regime. But I'll post my response again in case you missed it (concrete suggestions towards the end). 

a compilation of some posts i made earlier on iranian.com

--

the best way to destabilize a
ponderous, oppressive government such as Iran's is to ensure the growth
of a strong middle class in the target country with an educated and
politically active youth. Sanctions tend to do the opposite by denying
(or reducing) a country's access to trade, economic growth,
pharmaceuticals and health benefits, knowledge and innovation. It
stigmatizes countries' populations against the world, which often
entrenches hard-line governments with staunch supporters. Sanctions
also reduce positive effect of the global community's political
feedback: if a country is already a pariah, their leaders have little
incentive to conform to accepted norms (e.g. human rights).

--

In our quest to punish the regime for its behavior we are
economically isolating Iran and Iranians from the liberal democracies
that are the western world. In the long term this could destroy the very
middle-class that made the June uprising of '09 possible. It could help
to cement the tyrannical regime's reign over the Iranian people,
prolonging its shelf life. And naturally IRI is forced to deal with
non-western powers, moving Iran further towards questionable regional
actors like Russia and China.

"Criminalizing Consequences of
Sanctions," Peter Andreas, International
Studies Quarterly 49 (June
2005): pp. 335-60.
Read

One of the biggest flaws of the sanctions literature has been the
failure to discuss unintended consequences. Humanitarian costs have been
raised above, but what about other side effects? Peter Andreas looks at
the consequences of the multilateral sanctions directed at the former
Yugoslavia during the 1990s and finds a disturbing legacy. Economic
sanctions, it turns out, can unintentionally contribute to the
criminalization of the state, economy, and civil society of both the
targeted country and its immediate neighbors. By trying to evade the
sanctions, private entrepreneurs and public officials are encouraged to
disregard the rule of law. This fosters an unhealthy symbiosis among
political leaders, organized crime, and transnational smuggling
networks. These criminal networks can persist even after sanctions are
lifted, contributing to public corruption and undermining governance.

"Are Smart Sanctions Feasible?" By
Arne Tostenson and Beate Bull. World Politics 54
(April 2002): pp. 373-403.
Read

The comprehensive United Nations sanctions on Iraq during the 1990s
were a humanitarian disaster, leading policymakers to recognize that for
any future sanctions regimen to be politically sustainable its human
costs would have to be limited. Thus was born the concept of "smart
sanctions" -- tailored measures, such as asset freezes, travel bans, and
arms embargoes, that would supposedly target an offending regime while
minimizing collateral damage to the country's population at large. The
question now is whether smart sanctions can achieve significant results
with fewer downsides than more conventional forms of economic coercion.
Arne Tostenson and Beate Bull review the evidence and conclude that the
answer is no: "Although smart sanctions may seem logically compelling
and politically attractive, such regimes are difficult to establish and
enforce because of numerous inherent operational problems and the
intricacies of the Security Council's political processes."

--

Today, Iran is facing grave danger because of the Islamic republic's adventurous and dangerous foreign policies. We cant change IRI while
they are holding 70 million people hostage, but we can influence the way
US is dealing with the regime. If they dont talk, make no mistake, the
only other path is confrontation and full fledged war. organizations like NIAC are
argueing for engagement precisely because the alternatives are not in
Iranians/Americans interests. The engagement policy is not about
legitimizing the brutal regime but avoiding something that is going to
make the livelihoods of Iranians even worse than already is. 

Hyping up a threat that does not exist is detrimental to the interests of any democracy movement in Iran. 

People like you and me need to publicly advocate moderation while doing
our own thing to bolster the democratic movement in Iran.

We need to call up our representatives, organise and make our voices
heard. Only then will be able to give the moderate voices in washington
the political capital needed to stand up to the hawks. 

----

With the recent increasing trend of IRI incompetency, they will run the
country into the ground themselves soon and more people in Iran will
depart from the IRI ways and we will see even more cracks in the
leadership.

We have a pro-democracy movement of Iranians, and I'm not talking about
the ones living comfortable lives outside,  that can work their way in
through the cracks and lead for truly effective and lasting change.

No need to have foreigners do it for us and let IRI mask the truth. No
need to have foreigners engineer democracy like they did with Iraq. 

Those of us living outside need to stop with our selfish desires to have
a "quick" fix for Iran. This isnt something you can fix overnight.

---

Certain things that can be done to help Iranians inside:(I'll borrow Amir's post and add some of my own)

1) Sanctions on sales of anti-riot gear and electronic surveillance
equipment. freezing assets of persons connected to the regime. (not
entire banks)

2) Funds to help striking workers

3) Crimes against humanity charges filed in international courts against regime actors responsible for such crimes

4) Anti-filter software and other such technology to allow people to use
the Internet and cell phones without being blocked or tracked down by
authoritie.s. 

5) Increased civilized demonstrations against IRI organs and broadcasts from
Iranians living abroad--that will show Iranians that they have the moral
support of their compatriots living outside the country as well as
others, and that they are not alone. 

6) Increased assistance from human rights, civil society, and NGOs to
similar organizations and individuals inside the country to augment and
expand their civil disobedience and resistance against the regime

If there was to be any help from outside forces it needs to originate
from the civil society, non-governmental entities with geniune interest
in helping and forming relations with Iranians. bolster the independent trade unionists and help with forming
aliances with those in western countries. 

All this of course is where we the Iranian diaspora come into play. We need to recruite people - not governments - to our cause.

As I said before, it takes a while but it can be done if we stop the war
talk first and foremost, drop economic sanctions and specifically
target regime's people instead of entire organs. As difficult as it is
we have no choice but for regime to prosper along side normal Iranians
for a while. but make no mistake, once the middle-class is strong and
independent, its when the tough fight begins. 

Bijan

Here are some ideas from Reza Pahlavi. They are more in line with what I think should be done. The first one is a bit dated but they both explain a comprehensive approach. Not the half baked sanctions with no overall plan.

//www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,215520,00.html

//www.huffingtonpost.com/reza-pahlavi/iran-wi...

Dear VPK

I did not mean to bring USA into this discussion even though US has a lot at steak. My problem is to understand what is a practical and feasible approach for the Iranian people to achieve freedom (from theocracy), if that’s what they want.

I have always believed in educating the masses and they will take care of themselves once they are informed. However, after last year’s uprising and the brutal murder of innocent people I have second thoughts. You can’t fight these monsters empty handed. First, you have to weaken their support, the underprivileged, those who rely on this government for their day-to-day life. Then, you have to equip the democracy loving, secular opposition with enough tools to defend themselves against cold blooded muder of the regime. There is no doubt in my mind that blood will be shed. There is no such a thing as peaceful transformation from theocracy to democracy.

  My apologies if I cut this discussion short, but I have to go. I’ll join later….  

Well Moosir....

I’m a little short minded. Why don’t you be kind enough and help me out without blabbing a bunch of ‘feel good” impractical textbook stuff that makes everyone to nauseate. You have to pick from the following options:

1-      Wait, do nothing, things will take care of themselves  

2-      Ask for help from outside world in the form of sanction, target assassination, terroristic activities,…..  

3-      Air-tight sanctions to choke the ruling government and cause (give reason) for people uprising  

4-      Surgical strike against strategic targets  

5-      Armed opposition. Smuggle arms and propagate enough intel to cause a coup and overthrow of IRR. 

6-      Support an all-out war and invasion of Iran

If you are not supporting the existing regime, how else are you going to rid of them? If you have said it multiple times, I beg you to explain it one more time in layman language so that I don’t have to go round and round to get to the bottom-line of what you are trying to say. In other word, “No wrapping of a bunch of hogwash in nice words”, please….

Bijan

My problem is that I do not trust the USA to do the right thing. I have already suggested the USA could start by showing some good will:

//iranian.com/main/blog/veiled-prophet-kh...

That's a start. It will allow opposition in Iran to fight IR without worry of separatism.

Next USA should be talking to real opposition not to terrorists. See this:

//iranian.com/main/blog/moosirvapiaz/terr...

Many of us including myself have  disagreed with Moosir. But he makes a good point. USA must reach out to real Iranian opposition not MKO! Yet another sign of bat faith on the USA part.

Then it is a matter of Insults they make to us. Why is the US Navy deliberately insulting the Iranian people. Not IR because they could care less about anything "Persian" but the people. USA is deliberately insulting the Iranians.

Why should we think that USA is making the sanctions for Iranian good? The US foreign policy is so skewed it does not even serve American interests! American policy makers are ignorant of Iran and 100% Israel centric. They do not view Iran as a nation. To them Iran is just a "problem" for Israel to be neutralized. Their ignorance is demonstrated by their support of MKO.

If America wants to win they should learn about Iran. Or end up in the same mess as in Afghanistan.  They have millions of normal Iranians living in the USA. They should reach to us and learn from us. Then consult with various Iranian opposition groups and form a coherent policy. That policy may include sanctions as a part of a well formed plan. But as is without any real policy sanctions just hurt people. Really if they plan to impose MKO they have a lot to learn. 

آقا بیژن

No one said "no sanctions" - we are simply against the "airtight" sort of suffocation, which was applied to the Iraqi people - as a way to "soften" them before the military attack - much like when we tenderize a piece of meat before the BBQ.

The way to topple IRI is very simple, that's why 101 nations of this great earth have been unable to accomplish that for the past 31 years, eventhough almost all of them hate IRI!

But I have a really simple yet "magical" solution, which can be made available to anyone, as soon as they deposit $19 million dollars (Canadian cause the US$ sucks) into my Swiss bank account ;-)

Bijan, how many times have are u going to repeat that?

All I ever see from you in response to anti-sanctions arguments here is "what else do you suggest". Now if you could be kind enough to just go back to your own posts you will notice that I have responded to the that specific question you yourself posed many times. it makes me suspect if you are even intersted in an answer as you seem to ignore me and repeat ad infinitum about how none is suggesting anything else.

No sanctions....

Looks like the majority's consensus here is against air tight sanctions. So, what is the majority suggesting to do to rid of IRR? Should the rest of the world wait for IRR to develop Nuke arms? And wait for the brave unarmed Iranian youth to be slaughtered to just show the unrest without avail? What? Why don’t you guys come up with some other alternative to sanctions? Are you all asking for more time? Do you want 30 more years? Are you willing to guaranty that with one more generation we have a secular Iran? I don’t think so…..

  Are you suggesting to smuggle arms to Iran for the opposition to confront Basij and Sepah?  Then, Mr. MoosirQ, what are you suggesting? How should this nation fight the rule of Velayete Vaghih? I am not here to say lengesh kon, but really really curious to understand what your thoughts are?

Air what?

So Fred...

 Are you going to pay the extra for everyone at the pump? How about the extra it will cost for all petro products (tires, carpet, so on...)?

 I do not care enough to sacrifice any more than I have.

 A nuke bomb in Iran has no effect on the US. It is the problem of you Saudi arabs and Jews to take care.

 When will the men of Israel and Saudi Arabia start standing up for themselves and become responsible for themselves. I.e. actually become men.

 It is not enough that my tax dollars are sent in the form of aid to nations that need to stand up and be responsible for themselves, more so we are asked to do more! Lol...

 Stop begging and start doing. Start being men and take care of your own problems and stop running over here for handouts.

This one time

Q is right; more or less. NY Times is full of it. It was responsible for heavily promoting the WMD nonsense. It is the mouth peace of the far right Israeli lobby. I would not even bother using it as toilet paper since my rear deserves better.

I hate the IRI; but I do not hate the Iranian people. I am opposed to blanket sanctions. However I understand how good people would support them. But I am under no illusion that NY times is not our friend. So let us be very careful about the motives of those who talk. In each situation we must understand the motives of foes and allies. With that knowledge it is possible to work with both. We need not be friends to work together. Being foes does not prevent us from working together.

VPK

Amir

Don't expect a response from the people that make up the "Fred" propagandist effort. None of them have the intellectual self-confidence to provide much of anything beyond "rabid" or "raping" in their commentary responses. 

And they never provide personal details about themselves. We've been left to openly speculate that they're actually Israeli Hasbara internet posters.

Just as a matter

of curiosity and interest I like to know what is Fred's religion if it is not too much to ask.

Absolute, airtight snactions on IRCG, Bassij and other

Islamist regime's tools and organs of suppressin, rape and murder of Iranian people!   

The example of Mandela and ANC here are very true and approriate. And yea, he belived in and applied armed insurrection against the apartheid regime through ANC military wing and was often despised and called a communist by similarly weakling, old,lazy fat good for nothing exiles:)

"Personal business must yield to collective interest."

"special occasion"

If Iran where the Islamist Rapists are raping, maiming and murdering Iranian men, women and children like there is no tomorrow is not a “special occasion”, then one has to redefine the term.

"Nelson Mandela’s call"

The reality on the ground exhibits one sweet-bitter fact: Unlike the S.African case, there is no "international concession/understanding/unison" against IRI.

Sorry.

Never increase, beyond what is necessary, the number of entities required to explain anything.

Airtight Sanction only for Iran ... how about for Israel too?

What about China over Tibet ... Sudan over Darfur ... Zimbabwe over Mugabe ... Venezuela over Chavez ... Cuba over Castro ... USA over Iraq ... Russia over Chechnya ... India over Kashmir ... Chile over Pinochet ... Israel over occupation ???

Airtight sanctions are only good for SPECIAL occasions ... even then, it works 1 in 10.

Airtight sanction NOW

History has proven Nelson Mandela’s call for the complete sanction of apartheid South Africa was the correct way to get rid of that barbaric regime. The Nobel Peace Prize winner, Aung San Suu Kyi has been calling for the same thing to rid her beloved Burma of tyrants.

Happy Ḥănukkāh Fred: listen to Q - he is right ... this time!

Air tight sanctions mean turning Iran into a Concentration Camp ... no one should want anything like this for his/her own people ... even other people ... especially during Christmas!

tell me makhmooodG, what makes you so different from the regime?

both want death and destruction. both see end justifying means. you are one and the same.

Precisely why sanctions are not enough

Good post Fred.  But alas, unless surgical attacks are levied on the heads of the leaders of this Islamic Rapist Cultists, no amount of sanctions will do.  The US and Israel have no alternative left.  We can hope that the Iranian nation will finally come to realization that Islam has been robbing them blind for 1400 years and rise against it.  But this regime will kill millions to stay in power.  Surgical attacks will only eliminate the few thousand brainwashed and leeches who otherwise would want to destroy all humanity.  A pretty good math indeed.

Roo ro beram!!!

Wow, if this doesn't come from the Israeli PR playbook, I don't know what does.

So here's the major force arguing for total sanctions, trying to appear as though he supports humanitarian aid to Iranians! Wow! you can't see me, but I'm clapping for you guys FredCo, please take a long bow.

From one side of your considerably-sized mouth, you parrot "air-tight sanctions" but from the other you weasily say "See, it's not airtight!"

In fact the point of both FredCo's worthless online presence, and the warmongering NYT article is to eliminate humanitarian goods. They are arguing even these can't be trusted. This is a "name and shame" article thinly designed to put pressure on even food and medicine exporters. It's why it is published with such specific names (dog whistle to right wing fanatics) and it's perceisely why it is being pushed by FredCo. They both don't want food and medicine to go into Iran.

NYT makes this clear:

Even the sale of benign goods can benefit bad actors, though, which is why the licensing office and State Department are required to check the purchasers of humanitarian aid products for links to terrorism.

When you realize this is not a quotation but a NYT editorial inside a "news" article, you will understand what it is trying to accomplish, to the enthusiastic cheerleading of FredCo and his superiors.

Of course, they also know the whole thing is a sham. It's impossible to get past the corruption of the greedy American companies by making any "list" of "kosher" goods, not to mention enriching black-marketeers and Israeli sanctions breakers. 

FredCo knows this very well, and likely directly benefiting from it. It's called Capitalism. For example sanctioning Iranian cargo shipping lines because it also ships Oil (another stupid target which is backfiring, making Iran pursue nuclear energy more), means that food and medicine that are also shipped in will be blocked. Of course, Iran will find a way to get these in, but in the mean time a bunch of black marketers and a-hole sanctions advocates will bag $millions on the increased premium. 

This will not work of course, it simply results in a tax on the Iranian population. But hey, it's not like they give rat's ass about hte Iranians who are suffering.

However, none of this deception is as classic as FredCo now pretending he doesn't want what he's been advocating all alone: total sanctions.

 Roo ro beram!

American Jewish Committee now wants to sanction everything!

//www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ajc-urges-...

predictable. when it comes to Israeli boycotts of illegal settlements, everyone is an anti-semite. When it comes to Iran, its perfectly viable option, no ifs and buts!  Hypocrisy of the mainstream Jewish community for all to see.

What a mess

On one hand we got IR robbing people and stuffing Swiss banks.

On another hand people selling body parts to cheering of some.

IR cuts the only lifeline for people: subsidies.

Who came up with this genius idea of an Islamist Republic anyway? Oh yes it was Ali Shariati and Al Ahmad and the rest of 60s morons. Now we all pay for it.

I do not like or trust either IRR or NYT. Nobody cares about Iranian people. It is either Islam or Israel. Make no mistake NYT is the mouthpiece of NeoCons. But what they say about IR happens to be right. 

I just hope the Iranian military sides with people and kicks the Islamists to South Lebanon. Then Israel can take care of them from there on. Finally we can get back to a normal life after 30+ years of hell of Islamism.

Keep on truckin

Rabid Islamists with thirty two years of wholesale murder, rape and maiming of Iranian men, women and children in their record, accusing others of having blood on their hands is really rich. Keep on truckin

neocon war supporter Fred rewriting history

Not only you lie about anti-war/sanctions by calling them islamists, you rewrite NYT's major role in pushing for Iraq war. And nobody gave them a "neocon" term, something only deserved for people like you.

keep on BSing your way to another war Fred. people like you and the regime will have blood on your hands. 

Rabid Islamists

Everyone is a neocon and just a few sane world stationed rabid Islamist to fight them all off. Keep on truckin