Current Events

Re economic crash

Dear HTG, the present situstion can not even be considered as a token of what is yet to come! At the moment, although having repealed the direct subsidies, but the regime still somehow manages to hand out the monthly $40 payments to those who are still considered elligible (the low income and rural households), many of whom rely on farming activities for sustenance (e.g. producing their own bread, meat, dairy...) and from whom the majority of IRI's supporters and footsoldiers (Basij and Lebas Shakhsi) come from! Not to mention that IRI provides those who attend prayers and pro-regime rallies with additional subsidies and government assistance!

If you notice, I mentioned a time when a 1000% inflation rate would be the moment of reckonning for IRI's economy -- once the sanctions on IRI's central bank and oil come to fruition! That is when we'll witness IRI'e downfall by emergence of the million-strong masses of working class who join forces with middle class!

they no longer can afford to subsidize the below-poverty masses

Arj jaan, they actually stopped doing that last year.

They replaced subsidies with cash payments, and in turn "allowed" the prices for basic necessities and services to rise according to the "market."

The net result:

-The highest inflation rate ever seen in IR's history, so they tried to change cash payments with credit cards for basic items like Gas. Still the highest inflation rate...

- Mass refusal to pay utility bills in many working class neighborhoods (a phenomenon never seen before in the entire history of IR).

What was supposed to take care of IR permenant budget deficit, has turned out to be its exact opposite. Not only it has further weakend the shaky fragile economy. It has also united the most vulnerable sectors of the country against IR, although only on the basis of economic hardship. 

Needless to say in a crisis situation, such an economics based mass opposition could easily and rapidly evolve into an all encompassing mass political opposition.

Looking forward to such a day.

talks, war or snactions

Negotiating with IRI is impossible, for there is no solid, monolithilic negotiating party, but rather a motley group of warlords and billionaire clergy who do not even trust one another, much less the outside world! War is not going to work either, for not only it fails to deter them from the pursuit of nukes, but it'd rather help and provide such a pursuit with due justifications! Nonetheless, what is going to hit the mullahs in the underbelly is increasing sanctions!

Indeed, Ari has a good point here; nukes neither hurt nor helped the Soviets when they were being toppled! What made them crumble was economy! By the same token, even if IRI gets to make a nuke, it's not going to help them when inflation rate reaches 1000% and they no longer can afford to subsidize the below-poverty masses' sustenance!

Thanks maziar 58! By the way, ...!

you receive an 'A' for passing the GRE test!

The answer was indeed all of the above!

Words by Robert Hunter;

Words by Robert Hunter; music by Jerry Garcia

Went to see the captain
strangest I could find
Layed my proposition down
Layed it on the line;
I won't slave for beggar's pay
likewise gold and jewels
but I would slave to learn the way
to sink your ship of fools

Ship of fools
on a cruel sea
Ship of fools
sail away from me

It was later than I thought
when I first believed you
now I cannot share your laughter
Ship of Fools

Saw your first ship sink and drown
from rocking of the boat
and all that could not sink or swim
was just left there to float
I won't leave you drifting down
but woah it makes me wild
with thirty years upon my head
to have you call me child

Ship of fools
on a cruel sea
Ship of fools
sail away from me

It was later than I thought
when I first believed you
now I cannot share your laughter
Ship of Fools

The bottles stand as empty
as they were filled before
Time there was and plenty
but from that cup no more
Though I could not caution all I yet may warn a few:
Don't lend your hand to raise no flag
atop no ship of fools

Ship of fools
on a cruel sea
Ship of fools
sail away from me

It was later than I thought
when I first believed you
now I cannot share your laughter
Ship of Fools
No I cannot share your laughter
Ship of Fools

 A state of war only serves as an excuse for domestic tyranny.--Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn.

LOL@TL  A state of war

LOL@TL 

A state of war only serves as an excuse for domestic tyranny.--Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn.

Oon yaroo

NICE it's a very good scenario

But sepah (mafia) owns and controls almost all the ports

under Brenner (governor of Iraq!) there was a similar interest to create a national vote and keep it as common wealth territory like guam or puerto rico !

But after seeing all those vahshi (sunni,shias)first hand they just changed their plan.    Maziar

dear Faramarz: It's the

dear Faramarz: It's the theatre of the absurd.

HA HA HA HA HA! HA HA HA HA HA!
HA HA HA HA HA! HA HA HA HA HA!
HA HA HA HA HA! HA HA HA HA HA!

A state of war only serves as an excuse for domestic tyranny.--Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn.

Ari, most of the time, very honestly,

to my mind you just waffle confusedly, but this is a gem:

"An Iranian viewer may well ask, "How can you ignore me in the discussion and expect your analysis to be taken seriously?""

H T-G you wha'? That's so unkinky and passé !

Faramarz Jaan, Ponder upon this ...!

What would happen if US instead of a military strike on IRR decided to confiscate by force all the major ports of Iran along the Persian Gulf and the sea of Oman.

And, that it would allow Iranian citizens to travel and trade through these outlets?

How would/could the IRR respond/stop this? Using force! The US Navy could respond!

I think US should confiscate the southern part of Iran and make it its 51st state!?

...

On the origins of : " Excuse me ma'am, one last question ."

Framarz jaan, close but no cigar.

Script writers for the TV series in an interview mentioned how they copied the Columbo character  from the Inspector  in Dosteyevski's "Crimes and Punishment." In that novel, the inspector is also very low key, and he always end his conversations with: excuse me just one more question.

Now we got desperate mullahs shooting themselves in the head, thinking its going to rescue them from their ultimate fate. Talk about crimes and punishment!

TL: I thought you liked sadomasochism, why complaining about cyber kotak. As long as you enjoy it, its all good!

Assumption on Vali Nasr's part

At 10:42 he reveals that he sees the main threat to the regime as foreign provocation, which the regime thinks it can handle with weapons of deterrence. Similarly in the past, Leverett has dismissed domestic threats to the regime as being irrelevant. Three sides in this debate, including Stephens clearly frame the regime stablity issue in terms of foreign pressures. Though, an atom bomb may rescue the regime from outside threats, what dooms the regime is Iranians themselves.

To wit, the Soviets regime did not survive despite its huge nuclear armed military, and the Shah did not survive despite good trade with the West and the increasingly high standard of living during his reign. 

An Iranian viewer may well ask, "How can you ignore me in the discussion and expect your analysis to be taken seriously?"

Vildemose

US Navy has now become the AAA of the Persian Gulf! You got a boat problem, you call the US Navy!

Over a week ago I wrote a blog about, "Should Iranians Ask for Help?" It looks like that the Iranians are asking for help now and the US Navy is providing the help, and all is good so far.

Hooshang

I believe that Lieutanant Columbo originally came from an Alfred Hitchcock character and story called "Dear Corpus Delicti."

US Rescues Iranians in

//www.newser.com/story/137229/us-rescues-iranians-in-gulf-again.html?utm_source=part&utm_medium=inbox&utm_campaign=newser 

 A state of war only serves as an excuse for domestic tyranny.--Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn.

H T-G

it's been shooting up already.

Don't know if you saw my posts a few weeks ago, about getting a consortium together to make a serious quick buck in opposition and all I got was the usual cyber-kotak on IC.

It's the Chinese who are the greatest importers!

Payton Place!

P.S. Perperrizmizi is correct: legally they can close the driveway, but not the street.

Oon Yaroo Jaan

Hooman Majd and the rest of these guys are the leftovers from Khatami and the Reform era. It took several years to get to the bottom of that charade and now we are there.

Future is bright for Iran and Iranians.

TL, international water ways belongs to the whole world, not

just one country.

These IR a..holes think they're the number one in asymmetric, prolonged warfare. Well they have a couple of surprises coming for them.

Framarz, the only way oil embargo on IR could backfire is, if it leads to a substantial rise in energy prices. Keep in mind that the act which Obama signed still has six more months to go into full effect. Keeping IR economically isolated and maintaining a stable world energy market is complicated and requires tremendous amount of global coordination.

Meanwhile IR's economy is in such shambles (IR as a hand to mouth Gas station) that a mere mention of a coordinated embargo sends the entire currency market into total chaos.

And as Lieutenant would say : "Oh yeah, and one last question Ma'am: What does this tell us?"

P.S. Does anyone recall where the character for Lieutenant Columbo comes from? 

perperrizmizi, ROFLM!

that was sharp. you're lucky you're not here. agar boodi, as a prize, veshkoone migereftam, fleetingly.

P.S. yeah, I know, Chinese eat those bulldogs!

How badbakhat Iranian must be for someone like Homan Majd

to represent them in these public panels and discussion forums?

I mean in the scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is the  most badbakhat of all and 10 the most khoshbakhat of all where do you think Iranians would fall? I tell you where -10!?!?

HM claims that his uncle, the Friday prayer lead, in the city of Yazd asked him why doesn't Obama lift just one (1) sanction?

I mean besides the fact that he lives in New York city and dresses up like the models on the cover page of the GQ magazine what possible qualifications, skills, talent, or credential does he have? Oh yeah, he wrote a book and  has lived in Iran for the past year or so! How come the IRR thugs didn't arrest him!?

The question I have for HM is that why didn't he ask his uncle to stop just one (1) weekly slogan, "Marg Bar Amrkia!?"

And, the cock and bull story by this Leverett woman painting the IRR as a  bunch of peace loving live-and-let-live people! Portraying a bunch of hostage taker thugs as angels who sought the release of American hostages in Beirut in the late 80's! How dumb does she think we are? I mean how much money does the IRR pay this woman to lobby for it?

How low and badbakht and bechareh are we to deserve these charlatans debating the future of our mother land!?

Khak Bar Sar'e Badbakht'e Ma!

قاقا لیلی رنگ پریده

Your driveway is all yours, but you don't own the street!

You also shouldn't let your bulldogs roam around your front yard and scare the neighbors' kids.

perperrizmizi

the driveway on my land is my property even if it's full of hummus; a great Chinese delicacy.

ببینیم نظر ستوان کلمبو چیه!

So the US and its Western allies have decided that they do not want to buy oil from the Regime. That’s like me and my neighbors decide not to shop at Costco. OK, anything wrong with that?

Now the Costco management says that if you don’t buy from us then we will close the highway and won’t let you shop at Safeway or Trader Joe’s!

So who is threatening who here? Who is talking about war and devastations?

One party wants to close the Strait of Hormuz; the other party is rescuing Iranian fishermen.

Shouldn’t the petition-signing crowd direct their efforts at the Regime and not at the west?

For once, sign a petition and try to post it on ISNA or IRNA or Press TV.

Thanks GS

Very interesting and informative debate. Thanks for sharing.

Avoiding war

Do not get me wrong I am not asking for war. But if it were to happen we may avoid it. Simply don't fight. Gandhi approach meaning peaceful disapproval. But do not fight back; do not do asymmetric warfare.

Just participate in peaceful elections they will hold. Then get yourselves a democratic government. If others want to make trouble stop them because they only hurt you.

Bavafa jan, Indeed

War will bring destruction and is pointless.

Despite the lack of approvals from….

Some of our IC residence who care for much more forceful approach to the Iranian situation, this was a very good conversation and much of it  a good reflection with reality on the ground.

  The facts that nothing [positive] has been achieved by the strings of threats and force, IRI has responded back in kind and any solution remains as far out of reach as ever, remains indisputable.

'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory 

Mehrdad

Dear VPK

Thanks for your comment,

A friend suggested that for analysis of situation, just follow the exchange rate between tooman and dollar.

Anahid is right

by now, we know that none of these experts speaks the truth so any value in listening to them is to see how as time goes on,  they spin the events to fit their propaganda.  

Right these guys are all totally dishonest and lying shamelessly. But it does say what the latest "party" line for each camp is. Just so long as you know what camp they are in. And not thinking any of them says anything but propaganda.

Mostly The Stuff We Already Know And Say!

Minute 4:15 Bret Stephens: The Iranians are belligerent whatever the stance of the United States.

Minute 10:33 Vali Nasr: Sanctions are going to threaten the stability of the regime.

Minute 13:35 Bret Stephens: A strike on Iran by Israel is highly likely!