Comparing Libya and Syria to Iran is wrong

Balatarin
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Comparing Libya and Syria to Iran is wrong
by Esfand Aashena
23-Aug-2011
 

At first I was writing a comment in response to this blog The path and Obstacles to Freedom then I decided to turn it into a blog.  Comparing the "revolutions" in Libya and Syria to Iran is simply comparing apples and oranges.  For one thing there is plenty of foreign interventions in both countries with direct NATO involvement in Libya and arms smuggling into Syria for the opposition from bordering Iraq and Jordan. 

In Syria there is the Assad's 12% Alawitte religious minority ruling party that is ruling with a bloody military crackdown of the 74% Sunni majority with other minorities watching in horror what could happen to them if the Sunni majority comes to power.  The Sunni majority however is trying to build alliances with other minorities to topple Assad and gaining international recognition.

As much as Islamic Republic resorted to iron fist and crackdown of the people they did not use tanks in the streets.  They did not kill 2000 people.  There was no Sunni majority (74% of Syria's population of 22 million) being specifically targeted.

People are seeing just the beginning and cheering "revolutions"!  Like when George Bush landed on the aircraft carrier and announced "Mission Accomplished" in 2003!  Soon thereafter Iraq exploded into sectarian violence that has continued to date.

Iran's green movement started the uprisings that we see in the Arab world today.  Iranians will finish what they started and they're far more experienced and advanced in "revolutions", been there done that.  Even the regime knows what not to do to further enrage an already angry population that is reeling from harsh economic conditions with high inflation and rampant unemployment.

Islamic Republic is teetering with economic disaster and it's own demise.  Their nearly all domestic based economy is reaching low demand and high supplies with bleak future.  International sanctions is hitting home with more on the horizon forcing officials to address it.  The obvious problems have reached the "Supreme Leader" where he is constantly "advising" the authorities to "plan" for "low" unemployment and "create" more jobs!  The subsidy reform has been one sided and the business owners have not seen their share of subsidies that they were promised and was part of the subsidy reform, partly because the regime can only take so much from Paul to pay the Peter!

Bottom line, hold your horse Islamic Republic will not last forever.  Forever can mean 40 years for Qaddafi or what 10 years for Bashar Assad?  They had much smaller populations than Iran, 6 million for Libya, and oil revenues and no doubt they bagged most of oil revenues for themselves but they're meeting their destiny which is pretty brutal.  Be happy for them and hope their countries will not fall into chaos.  Our time will come too, it has already come.

Photo caption:  The "beach" by the old Hyatt Hotel (now Parsian) near Namak Abrood by the Caspian.  Behind you is the Hotel in the picture here.  Before the revolution there was a beach but notice now that the beach is gone!  Bascially they don't want people to have any "fun".

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more from Esfand Aashena
 
Esfand Aashena

Over the past "30 years" or so Libya & Syria have killed as many

by Esfand Aashena on Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:40 AM PDT

The point and fact is about a specific recent uprising in Iran in 2009 and specific recent uprisings in the Middle East. 

Everything is sacred


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shushtari

they did not kill 2000

by shushtari on Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:04 AM PDT

they've killed tens of thousands over the past 32 years!

check your facts

 


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Esfand Aashena

Lessons learned.

by Esfand Aashena on Tue Aug 23, 2011 08:49 AM PDT

Indeed it's all about lessons learned.  Islamic Republic has learned how to treat an uprising but what they did in 2009 might not work again should there be another one.

Iranians learned that while going to the polls and then using the same unity to question the legitimacy of the elections were good, it was not enough and they had no idea how things would turn out.

As far as a fair fight and the international community support, well at the time in 2009 the Iranian uprising was the only game in town and no one knew what exactly should be done.  It wasn't until Tunsia and Egypt that major dictators fell and opened the door for international support.  We can expect much more support next time, much more!

Faramarz jaan maybe in future blogs I post picture(s) of the hotel itself which will bring more memories.  I was thinking of using another siah bisheh picture this time but chose this one instead.  An Iranian boat reaching the revolution and then turning back :-) 

Everything is sacred


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Faramarz

Nice Picture

by Faramarz on Tue Aug 23, 2011 08:35 AM PDT

Esfand Jaan,

Thanks for the blog and the nice picture. Hyatt of Namak Abrood was the place to go back in the days.

If you throw Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen into the mix and add the experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan, we can easily see that none of these were the same. But each has many “lessons learned.”

For example, Iraq shows that foreign boots on the ground and  De-baathification was a huge mistake and created the insurgency. Also, turning the country over to a group of Shia oppositions who had one leg in Iran was a mistake too. That’s why we see in Egypt people are not after revenge, but rather are thinking about tomorrow. And in Libya the West has been engaged with the opposition from the get-go to make sure that al-Qaeda is not taking over.  

The NATO involvement in Libya and others in Syria also shows that the international community can help make the struggle a “fair fight” by taking the big guns from the Regimes or arming the opposition groups when violence becomes the order of the day.

I agree with you that one cannot make any predictions because these events start out with a spark and who knows when the next spark happens, but the lesson learned from Iran of 2009 were that the opposition leadership needs to be more determined and organized and the international community needs to support the opposition a lot quicker and stronger.


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Anahid Hojjati

I agree RB

by Anahid Hojjati on Tue Aug 23, 2011 08:24 AM PDT

Iranians are aware of this and this is one reason why Iran's path may look different.


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Reality-Bites

IR's security forces

by Reality-Bites on Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:02 AM PDT

Are far better organized and more efficient in putting down popular protests and resistance than pretty much any other country in the Middle East.

They learned lessons from the shortcomings of Shah's security forces back in 79 and have had 32 years of practice (of varying scales) and don't need tanks etc. to brutally suppress any sign of uprisings.


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Anahid Hojjati

Maybe

by Anahid Hojjati on Tue Aug 23, 2011 08:17 AM PDT

This morning as I was driving, I was thinking if somehow we could have a woman leader in Iran connected to an important religious family but also an independent and educated one, who spoke of reform,  freedom, jobs, etc., that could be appealing to people and a path for Iran.


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Esfand Aashena

Problem with "predictions"

by Esfand Aashena on Tue Aug 23, 2011 07:34 AM PDT

History has shown that all these uprisings start with a "spark" and that's something no one can predict.  You can analyze the economic and social situations of a country and say it's ripe for something but you can't predict what exactly is going to happen.

War seems to be the easiest prediction but as soon as they say it they attach conditions and unknowns to it to make it a less likely outcome!

Everything is sacred


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Cost-of-Progress

It's funny

by Cost-of-Progress on Tue Aug 23, 2011 07:42 AM PDT

how everyone beats the drums of war with Iran. It ain't gonna happen! True that the Ruskies and Chinese are counting on the West not to engage in military action. They believe that the west won't - or can't. In any case, the Chinese, even though they have a lot of people and money and aspire to become the next great superpower, don't have a pot to piss in - militarily speaking.

What I'd like to know is whatever happend to "revolutions" that were fabricated much like what happened in 1979? Why all the drama about big time military action when you have a pool of people you can easily fool? Things will change when things are "ready" to change, Soros or not.

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IRAN FIRST

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Tabarzin

Here is a video of his statement in February

by Tabarzin on Tue Aug 23, 2011 06:22 AM PDT


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Tabarzin

George Soros

by Tabarzin on Tue Aug 23, 2011 06:18 AM PDT

Predicted earlier in the year that by the same time next year in 2012 the regime in Iran will be history. Seeing how this man is well-connected to all the real behind-the-scenes movers and shakers of world events, it appears to me that there is a timetable in place within the minds of the Western elite to deal with the regime in Iran sooner than later. How they will deal with it is the question because a war and military engagement with Iran will certainly plunge the whole region and beyond into a protracted and bloody chaos the likes of which we haven't seen before and one in which will not end for a long time. Also the Chinese will not sit back and do nothing since their interests in Iran will be threatened, and if China is pulled into a direct military conflict with the Western powers to protect its interests, it has the capacity to bring down the whole global economy and end the American empire forever.

 


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