Esfand Aashena

...

Mamad jaan no offense taken, it just sounds a bit tacky. I agree almost 90% with you.

What happened in 1979 is never going to happen again, we're in a different world and all that.

The balance of forces is not yet in favour of the people, but in the past two years it had 'gravitaed' more towards the protest movements, hence IR's relentless repression. And yet with all these oppressive measures, it's unable to heal the split within itself , and everyday it becomes more and more isolated with Iranian people and the world around it.

All political prisoners are always unconditionally supported. Although I have a critical take on Greens, I've always supported them (materially and otherwise),and encouraged all moves and calls by them, only to be disappointed, yet once more.

In the last three months of 2009 (Aban, Azar, Day)  we had the beginning of a revolutionary situation in Iran, but that path was consciously avoided by the Green leadership. History will never forgive that.

Houshang

What you suggest is reasonable, but needs organization and leadership. The organization is not there, and the VF regime has created many hurdles against it. Labor leaders are in jail or harrassed. In every major industrial organization we have "Paaygaah-e Moghaavemat-e Basij" that watches the labor force, etc.

The political leaders - Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and almost anyone among the ranks of the reformists, nationalist-religious groups, and others who could organize - are in jail. Why do you think that they were rounded up immediately after the 2009 coup? Because they could organize. Despite the fantasies that some here on IC have, or some who fantasize about being the leader here in the West - people like Vahedi, Sazegara, and Makhmalbaf -  we absolutely positively do not have any potential leader other than those that are in Iran.

In the absence of the two - organization and leadership - people must join the ranks of democratic movement at vast numbers - which they have not yet - to create an all encompassing movement. This is why the 1979 Revolution was quickly able to topple the regime, and it is also what Mousavi suggested through the formation of social networks. If people did that, then either the VF regime will back down, or it will be finished. But, it will not go without a fight, if it decides to resist. Anyone who thinks that it will be easy is not in touch with reality.  

My point is, one must realistic about such prospects.

And I agree with Mehrdad. If we cannot support those who are in jail because somehow they are guilty in our eyes, we can at least not mock them, label them, and make accusations against them. Yes, it is easy to say, "Why did they not do this or that?" or, "Damn, coward Mousavi said to people 'do this or that,' to save his own skin." But, one must be there to see what the conditions are on the ground. Some of the people here on IC who constantly issue secular fatwas about what to do are even afraid of the stare of the passport check officer at Tehran airport, let alone going there and participating in the demonstrations, or be active in any sort of social/political movement.

I did not mean any disrespect when I used "Khan." If you were offended, my apologies.

Mammad

uuuh ooooh

comment self deleted, as one has just disappeared and I have no idea why.

anaaaaaarchiiiiiyyyyy! 

;)

Plenty of regimes imprison and kill their former members

The USSR under Stalin imprisoned and executed many of its founders (Kamenev, Zinoviev, Trotsky, Bukharin, etc). In turn, under de-Stalinization some of Stalin's comrades were imprisoned or exiled, while some remained in power. The same goes for Mao's China and the post-Mao period (e.g. Gang of Four were driven out). Syria, Iraq, Libya, Sudan, etc can say the same thing. That doesn't change the fact that those individuals had plenty of innocent blood on their hands, were undemocratic, belonged to a tyrannical system, and committed mnay abuses and killings when they were in power. Same goes for Messrs Mousavi, Rafsanjani, etc and the other leaders of the "green movement" ostensibly led by some of Khomeini's most devoted followers (to this very day).

Faramarz jaan it's the end game.

Every time you have a dictator on the ropes you see other countries and leaders start to look beyond and plan for the future.  It happend to Iran and Shah and how everyone abandoned his ship, then to Mubarak, Qaddafi and now Assad.

Did Saudi Arabia go before Turkey or after?  I forgot but these are two powerful foes for Syria now.  Even Iran is starting to back track a bit here and there in their newspapers.  Funny in Iran those in power are cheering "reforms" in Syria and Ahmadi will probably deny he has ever met Assad once he is fallen!  Velvet revolution is good for Syria but not Iran!

I think the next spark in Iran will probably come from Ahmadi or Khamanei running their mouths off one too many time!   

Everything is sacred

Every single chant of Allah'o Akbar is a violation of Human

Dignity, freedom, and worth.

Human beings and Humanity are Great, not a mythical/fictional character.

THE LEADERSHIP OF THE GREEN MOVEMENT IS COMMITTED TO MAINTAINING ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF HELL, WITH A FEW COSMETIC CHANGES.

That's why all the tactics and strategies they have provide has led to nothing but a strengthening of IR. As is the case with chanting Allah'oAkbar.

The regime in a counter move used heavy speakers from mosques to chant, and it easily drowned "the voice of protests."

Revolutions of the 21 century, need their own slogans and demands, not an old, tired rehash of stuff from 32 years ago. Cheers, and outta here.

Turkey’s Role

One of the more interesting aspects of the Syrian situation, and the Arab spring for that matter is how Turkey’s role has evolved and changed. Turkey’s stated policy has changed from “Zero Problem with Neighbors” to quite a forceful role in siding with anti-Regime protestors. And that has not gone unnoticed by the Regime in Iran.

I believe that if NATO at some point decides to throw its weight behind the armed opposition currently being amassed in Turkey, it will be Turkey that will play the lead role in NATO, very similar to the role that France played in Libya. Obama and the US airpower will do the heavy lifting as they did in Libya, but Turkey will be the face of the NATO.

Turkey’s role and views will also have significant weight down the road if and when there is another spark in Iran.

Thanks for the blog and the picture. Hotel Gashsar was one of my favorite stops on the way to Shomal. They always had great trout.

And Hooshang Jaan: What does that has to do ...

with the price of tea in China?

The point I was trying to make and may have gone amiss is that…
These are the people that are risking their neck and whichever path & method they choose to take to express their contempt and dissatisfaction/disapproval deserves to have our support EVEN if it does not fall squarely with the method that I or YOU think is the best for them.

We should have a voice in their method of fight only if we are willing to pack up and go to the streets of Tehran to put them into use and/or suggestion.

'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory 

Mehrdad

P.S. don’t forget all those nights with Alah-o-Akbar shouting on the roofs.  Although I am sure there are plenty HERE that would not approve of that form of expression of contempt since they use a religious phrase.

P.S.S I should not need to point out that my advocacy for support is for the Iranian people and not necessarily for those on top of the so called Green Movement.

Esfand: Arabs will remove

Esfand: Arabs will remove Shiites.........

They do matter as it was a political movement then and it is a political movement now that crosses cultural boindaries. The Sunni Arabs do not mix religion in their Arab Spring. So they will get rid of Shiites. It is the weapon salesmen that want the war and support The Hezbollah in Iran and Lebanon.

Ali Mostofi

//twitter.com/alimostofi

Muhammad didn't write the Koran?! Oy vey!

Wasn't Salman Parsi's name Roozbeh and he's also a Shiite?!  He now wrote Koran and Muhammad only proofed it?!

It doesn't really matter, none of these matter baba! 

Everything is sacred

Salman wrote Koran and used

Salman wrote Koran and used it to change Iran. It is well documented. In essence the roots go to the first son of Abraham and his family called the Qureshi. Halabi was taught by Salman. Long story.

Ali Mostofi

//twitter.com/alimostofi

"express their contempt for the ruling regime"

Was marching in total silence, and prohibiting anyone from saying a single word during those "Silent Marches," also a part of "expressing contempt" for the ruling regime?" or rather it was another missed opportunity to mobilize the masses for the next phase.

If anyone pays close attention to the evolution of the protests in Iran after June 2009, we see that every single month there was a move towards more radicalization of the slogans and demands from the masses.

From 13th of Aban to  16th of Azar to Ashura, there was a continuous evolution of mass movement in an "overthrowing mode." At one point during the Ashura protests, the protestors almost siezed the national television station, and the overall mode was very much a confident aggresive tone of insurrection.

The next big national protest( 22 Bahman) "Green" leaders, very much afraid of expanding and continuing such a radical gesture, urged the protestors to carry IR flags and blend in with regime's supporters. Effectvely putting an end to the continued radicalization fo the movement, and missing once more the historical opportunity to overthrow IR.

With all due respect, the "Reform" movement of IR, is pretty much like IR itself: A still-born child. D.O.A.: Dead on arrival. 

عجب بدبختی گیر کردیم ها! علی‌ جان این حرفها چیه؟!

Iran invented Islam?  I thought Islam invaded Iran!  Is invention and invasion the same thing?!  

Anahid jaan yes I am not writing Reformers off.  As we've read this week in Mr. Bagherzadeh's article, we wrote off Bakhtiar (who was a Reformer) and look how we ended up!  In Hooshang khan mozakhraf ziyad migeh hoselasho nadaram!

Bavafa jaan, thank you for your comment.  Yes Iranians are chartering their way and have our support, yours and mine anyway!  

Everything is sacred

General Strike as the tactic and strategy to overthrow IR

"Regime Change" is a term coined by Neo-Cons, and it means continuation of IR by other names and means.

"Regime Change," has nothing to do with a substantial, significant change in our political, social relationships, but only a cosmetic 'change' at the top.

With a mere "Regime Change," we'll end up, essentially, with the same clowns under a different name.

Don't forget that we had a regime change (32 years ago) from Monarchy to Theocracy and not only, that much didn't change, it got worse.

What we need is a variation of the Arab Spring: not only a change of the ruling elite, but also a national attempt to transform the very oppresive foundations of our social relationships and structures of our society.

پیش به سوی فلج کردن اقتصادی نظام، از کم کاری و کارشکنی و پدافندی، تا اعتصاب عمومی

//www.farakhan-iran.com/html/payam_16.html

Aghay Mammad, all due respect, there's no Khan in here. Please refrain from using that when addressing me, you humble servant!

Hooshang jaan: With all due respect…

I don’t get it!

While a very large (estimated in millions) came on to the streets of Tehran and other cities in direct defiance and despite much physical danger to express their contempt for the ruling regime , we are labeling them as being “in the pocket of the ruling thugs”

What gives?  Should those folks consult with each of us in the West as what we wish for them and then go on to the streets to risk their lives for us?

If we cannot support them in THEIR fight and not OURS, can’t we at least not mock them, ridicule them and accuse them? 

Such behavior is beneath human decency.

'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory 

Mehrdad

Esfand: Iran invented Islam.

Esfand: Iran invented Islam. You know that. Salman burnt Iranian philosophy. But the oral tradition is 20k yrs old. Our own culture is peacefully more inclusive than any religion. We can live with The Hezbollah Party in Iran. All we need to do is to let them think they can go peacefully. No violence. No capital punishment is our dictum.

Ali Mostofi

//twitter.com/alimostofi

Esfand 's blog has good points

he is very correct to write that Iranians are not divided along ethnic lines. Yes, Kurds have had demands for decades and there has been unrest but there is no animosity between Kurds and people from other parts of Iran. Just like people have no animosity towards Turks, mashahdis, jonobis, shomalis, etc. Yes, there are jokes but no hatred.

In the spectrum of being pro reformers or writing them off, Esfand is one of many who does not write them off.

ABC News Exclusive: The Secret War Against Iran

ABC News Exclusive: The Secret War Against Iran 

Everything is sacred

علی‌ جان این حرفها رو جای دیگه نزن، ایراد می‌گیرن!

Ali jaan what do we have to do to get you to purge and flush this separation of Hizbollah and Iranians?!  Iranians INVENTED Hizbollah!  Remember Hizb only Hizbollah, leader only Ruh-allah?!

Forget about it! 

Everything is sacred

Is this writer from Iran?

"... some ARE trying to raise tensions between Sunnis in the southeast and
to some extent they have been "successful" in carrying out some terror
operations."

Islamic Republic of Hell since day one has been after all religious, ethnic minorities of Iran: Sunni, Jewish, Bahai, Zoroastrain, Arab, Baluch, Kurd , Turkmen,...

And it's not just in "southeast" Baluchistan.

IR has a 'distinguished' record of killing:

Iranian-Arabs in Khoram'Shahr (SouthWest),

Kurds (NorthWest),

Turkmen (North Central).

IR's continued military occupation of Iranian Kurdestan for the past 32 years is one of the most extensive 'terroist operations' ever carried out in Iranian history.

Why the "Green Reformers" are so out of it?

Because they really think they could reform Islamic Republic of Hell. 

Esfand: Taliban of Iran

Esfand: Taliban of Iran .....

Esfand you seem to miss the point competely. Iranians have islolated The Hezbollah Party in Iran. The Arabs have isolated The Hezbollah Party in Lebanon and its proxies in Syria and Palestine. The Israelis, Arabs, and Iranians are all against this political movement in Middle East and North Africa. The US military needs a foe, so they support the existance of The Hezbollah in the area. The US Republicans get funding from military lobbyists. Connect the dots.

Ali Mostofi

//twitter.com/alimostofi

Houshang khaan

Talk is cheap and you throw it around in ample amounts, without contributing anyting. It is just "hot" hollow rhetoric!

Green Movement in the pockets of the regime? Yup! That is why all their leaders are in jail, tortured, sentenced to long terms after show trials, kept in solitary confinements, their families harrassed, etc.

Do not mix up your fantasies of regime change and overthrow over night with facts on the ground. If you want to contribute meaningfully, specify in detail how you will achieve your regime change. No slogans, or hot rhetoric, but a step-by-step plan. Enlighten us.

Mammad

Good point.

Yes we do have ethno-religion lines.  It could lead to ethnic tensions and I believe some ARE trying to raise tensions between Sunnis in the southeast and to some extent they have been "successful" in carrying out some terror operations.

Everything is sacred

Irony:not understanding the difference between Revolt & Reform

The "Green" movement in Iran was always in the pocket of ruling thugs. That's why it missed the best opportunities to overthrow Islamic Republic. It was never meant to overthrow anythign but to Reform it.

Arab masses Revolted against their ruling elites, and overthrow them in Tunisia, Egypt,..

Why is it so hard to comprehend between the difference between the two:

Iran's Green 'movement': Reformist and ultiamtely reactionary, for its appeal to maintain the status-quo.

Arab Spring movement: Radical and ultimately progressive, for its appeal to creat a new set of relationships.

I think you are wrong, EA

It's not just religion, it's ethno-religion lines that are cracking up.

Think about Iranians. From what I know Persians only make 50% of all Iranians.

No! Ironic would be if Khamanei asks for "reform"!

Everything is sacred

In Syria, it's Assad & his thugs who are calling for "reform"

In the IRI, it's the so-called "reformist" faction of the ruling Khomeinist gang who are calling for "reform". A little ironic, no?

What'd be a good caption for this picture?!

If you email this picture to your temporary wife, we'll kill you! 

Everything is sacred

ROFLM @ the picture! and

yup, different kettle of fish....

"Our Uprising"

And exactly what kind of an uprising was this ( our supposed 'uprising' by the Greens) that was asking to get their "votes" back, as the ultimate goal of the movement? It was all nothing but an attempt to REFORM ISLAMIC REPUBLIC.

I always thought uprisings were like insurrections, the aim is to overthrow the regime; as it happened in Tunisia, Egypt,..not to reform and maintain Islamic Republic (like the 'Greens' of IR).

The difference between these contemporary Arabs, and the ones that invaded Iran 1500 years ago:

Today's Arab world is the vanguard of democracy in the world. Examples of Tunisia and Egypt are the inspiration for  people all over the world. Last night the Noble Peace prize winner from Yemen was in Zuccoti Park, and was received like a true heroine that she is.

The Arabs of 1500 years ago were a multitude of hitherto nobodies, from nowhere that defeated world empires (including Sassanian) due to the latters corruption and degeneration.

There's a big difference between people who burn themselves (Tunisia, Eygpt,..) to bring about a message of protest,

And those that burnt Iranian men because they wouldn't submit to the will of allah!