Jahanshah Javid

That's her right

Anahid Hojjati, this thread is about events in Iran. I don't want to turn this into trashing this or that person.

Jaleh and everyone else have the right to defend or oppose anything they want.

جناب آقای مردم مظلوم

اقلاً این آقای ژاله هو (اینم شد اسم) همیشه دست به کار خواهد بود.  ایشون هر روز بلند میشه میاد سر کار و کارآمدشون تو چاخان کردن حرف نداره.  هر کی‌ کدخدایی این ولایت رو بگیر ایشون رو سفیر میکنه. خوشم میاد که جی جی خان رو سر پیشبینی‌ هاش توبیخ میکنه.  معلومه که دولت هر روز مردم رو زندونی میکنه شکنجه میده و دار میزنه، چشم بسته گوزیدی جی جی. ۲۰ بهمن، ۲۱ بهمن، به خصوص ۲۲ بهمن، ۲۳... خلاصه پلفسل ژاله هو به جی جی خان در پروپاگاند یک صفر چار گوش داد.  هر هر هر (<-- یعنی‌ بلند بلند خندیدن).

Unbelievable

You RUINED the whole comment...      -thx.

بسى رنج برديم درين سى سال

بسى رنج برديم درين سى سال

بلاهت ببار آمد زين ميوه كال

.

.

Jish Daram, single prediction

was meant in the scientific language of testing a theory. That is, if you form a theory based on your past and present observations, and CORRECT interpretation of those observations, that theory could be tested and validated by its ability to say something correct about future events or areas unknown to us hitherto.

That also tells you something about the conviction of the person who makes a theory. For example, after Einstein formed the theory of general relativity based on which certain attributes were predicted about starts and when he was asked: " what if your prediction doesn't come true?" He said, "Then God has made a mistake!" The very elaborate experiments later on proved that neither Einstein nor God had made any mistakes. A SINGLE prediction is the very minimum that a viable theory should be ale to predict or clarify. Otherwise "opinions" are dime a dozen, and propaganda that people want to believe in, even cheaper than that.

A special daheh zajr

I think we're gonna witness the biggest PRO irI rally/celebration ever on 22 Bahman. Yes, there'll be some protests too, but nothing comparable to what the regime is preparing; The mullahs will deploy ALL their stupid [daahaati] $upporters in the streets to prove that the majority are with them.  

The next big uprising = chaahaar-shanbeh soori

(the price of aklil soranj is skyrocketing already)

To raast migi

Jaleh, I'm wrong, you're right.

I have better things to do than discuss anything with someone who takes the side of thugs, rapists and murders.

I wish you and your lovely Islamic Republic lots of luck.

Ahmadi representing Iran = Karzai representing Afghans w/ fraud

Everything is sacred.

Now JJ, this kinda prediction won't work!

What's the use?! I can predict that my uncle's cheragh zanbouri will be in kakh saltanat, and when the result comes out and another person is sitting on the takht, and is representing a country in international arena.....I whine and deny: "be khoda my uncle's cheragh zanbouri WON, but somehow he's not on the throne!"

Sorry to talk the language of science than just propaganda. I thought by guessing something BIG happening on 22 Bahman, you were actually offering a brave test for your theory. In fact, that was a very clever date to pick for a test of any theory regarding where Iran is headed. Unlike the very dumb predictions of Qods Day revolution or Ashura Revolution, or other dumb gusses by Sazegara for example!). Otherwise, anyone can say and claim anything they want, there is no tax on it.

Silent Protests

I saw a few ideas floating about a completely silent protest for 22 Bahman.  The movement is learning from its different experiences and moving along.  Confrontation with Basijis, though sometimes inevitable, takes away from the peaceful trademark of the protests.  Violence on the part of IRI has brought it nothing but infamy and a complete loss of legitimacy.  They want to hang several people before 22 Bahman to make sure people won't come out.  Every lost life, however, increases public anger and strengthens its resolve to demand change.  The bar on these demands will continue to be raised with each bloody confrontation and Islamic Republic will soon regret the days it could have admitted to rigging the elections and supporting the unleashed violence on protesters. 

Mahmoud stopped being the subject of these protests a long time ago.  Ditto Mousavi.  The crisis is bigger than admission to elections fraud or identifying Mortazavi as the culprit in the Kahrizak fiasco.  The reforms that people have demanded since 2 Khordad in 1997 have quickly turned into a snowball of demands for fundamental change in Iran.

Let's assume that Islamic Republic's now completely military rule will be able to restore order and frighten people back into their homes.  The anger that will continue to brew will not be managable for long.  The next explosions will be bigger and bloodier.

In order to save face, Islamic Republic would do well to announce a referendum and ask people what they want and take the lead in implementing those changes, even if they mean complete separation of mosque and state.  This could be their graceful and peaceful way out.  Otherwise, it should brace itself for strikes, riots, and continuous campaigns of civil disobedience which would cripple it and will bring on further loss of control.

22 Bahman = democracy is more important than our night's bread?!

Everything is sacred.

والله، دروغ چرا؟

ما هر چی به این ژالهو میگیم دست از این "من گفتم"، "رژیم ما برندست"، "ایرانیها به دکتر ا.ن. رای دادند"، ... بر دار آخر گناه این همه آه پاتونو میگیره حالیش نمیشه که نمیشه. ولی یک چیزی معلومه و اون اینکه رژیم سخت داره تو پاچههاش میشاشه چون حسابی به این ماموراش اینور اونور داره زور میاره که هی تو این بلاگ-ملاگها بیان زرزر کنند.

Juan Cole's perspective on

Juan Cole's perspective on the Leverette's article:

//www.juancole.com/2010/01/iran-and-goldilocks-principle-why.html

I should say that I know and admire them [the Leveretts], and share their conviction that the Obama administration should engage the government in Tehran, whatever it is. We had diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union and face to face talks all through the 1980s, at a time when that regime really was on the verge of falling. You can't know the future.

But I do not share their dismissive attitude to the Green movement. I think it is big, nation-wide, multi-class and significant. And I fear that they have fallen for the regime's phony counter-demonstration on Dec. 30 as a sign of wide and deep support for the regime. I don't deny it has its supporters. But I think the ground is shifting against Khamenei and Ahmadinejad, which helps explain why they are becoming more and more repressive.

Great Post

Here is an idea for us outside Iran  - please disseminate.   

22 Bahman Party - in both Southern and Northern Cal.   As ex resident of so-cal, I suggest Santa Monica Beach for so. cal.   Bring AN and Khamenei Photos.  Photo Burning Celebration starts at 8 PM. 

Single predictin?

Jaleho, Why the need for a single prediction? We are not in a fortune telling session with madam Rozenka to find out what is in our destiny with a single prediction in exchange for $20.

It does not have to be a single prediction, but it has to be a multiple step recovery. There is no easy way out of the mess we are in.

My next prediction

Jaleho, Mousavi DID win the elections. But you and the thugs who rule Iran continue to believe in a lie and impose your will on the people.

Here's my next prediction: Soon, protesters will hang for challenging the results of the election and for calling an end to Khamenei's absolute rule. And defenders of this ugly dictatorship will cheer and get drunk with the blood of powerless, defenseless innocents.

From Islam to democracy

JD, you're right. The goal is not just to get rid of the Islamic Republic. What we want is a free, democratic government. A constitution where the rights of every single person, men and woman, are equally respected.

What we have right now is a grass-root, popular, leaderless movement. It is a raw expression dissent by people who are fed up with this brutal regime.

It's hard to predict the future. But what's certain is that political Islam is, for all practical purposes, dead. Clerics and the clerical establishment have lost the trust and respect of the vast majority of the people. We just have to figure out how to replace them with a democracy.

Anonymouse, that was GREAT :-)

Your translation made much more sense than JJ's 4-point PURE fantasy :-)

JJ jan, are you sure you're not making a "Here comes president Mousavi" redux? Regardless, I appreciate your guts for coming up with one concrete prediction of your theory. As you know, one looks at data, makes an interpretation of the data of the past, the events of the present, forms a theory, and the validity or worth of the theory is only assessed by its ability to make some CORRECT predictions. At least, you are standing by your belief, which I beleive is completely incorrect since I believe the wrong interpretation of your 4 points made you start from a wrong premise. I have been trying to push people with more convictions in their theory to make a SINGLE prediction, alas, no guts!!

Thanks Anonymouse

This Afghan translation is almost perfect. Do you happen to have the Iranian version?

Dear JJ, lets hope there will be minimum casualty as the  regime seems to be getting weaker and will certainly resort to more violence to protect itself.

What 22 of Bahman tells us

Is that in the midst of our exitement, chants, celebrations and jubilations, we have a tendency to sign documents that we will regret for a long time. We the people of Iran voted on a constitution in 1979 that brought havoc on our nation and we are still paying for it.

22 Bahman is the day to remember that the group that wants to govern Iran after this regime must first change the consitution before they start putting people in jail for speaking up against the Revolution (part two).

Demand a change in constitution and not just the leadership. Leadership leads based on the content of the constitution. You defend your rights based on the articles of the constitution. 

What is worse than an Islamic Republic, is another one just like it.

Please, please do not embarass me! JJJ is genius!

Everything is sacred.

Anonymouse the genius!

That was fantastic! the translation is not always precise, but it was so cool.

...

تمام مقصرین، خائنین،نامردان،ناکثین را باید محاکمه کرد و مجازات !

به امید پیروزی و به امید ایجاد اولین جمهوری آزاد ایران ! آخوند بازی، شاه بازی و مذهب بازی تمام شد !

If you install the toolbar click the tool to translate any page

I don't want to take too much of JJJ's blog but once you install the tool bar there are "icons" that you can click on and translate a page to english or farsi.  It is on the toolbar but you have to install it.  I don't go to behnevis webpage any more.  Just click on the behnevis icon on the toolbar and a window opens up so I can type in finglish and then see the farsi. 

Everything is sacred.

Anonymouse?!

Gerefit ma ro ha !!!

Behnevis is great for writng in Farsi (I always use it) but doing translation?? Is that a joke?

JJJ I recommend using Behnevis's "toolbar"

I've been using Behnevis' tool bar and it is very cool.  It becomes part of the Internet Explorer tool bar and you can hide or keep it.  I keep it.  You can also click on a toolbar and translate the page to English or Persian.

For example, here is your blog translated to Persian with just one click

To download the toolbar click here and then the Please click here to install Behnevis Toolbar in the middle of the page.

I've noticed you've been using a lot of finglish lately and this tool bar is easy to use.  If you intentionally use finglish then never mind.

Everything is sacred.