Alireza's death is a clear reminder of the popularity of the Pahlavis three decades after the people booted them out of the country. It's clear as day, but pundits, analysts, scholars and the majority of political activists dismiss it just as they ridiculed the popularity of the mollas and political Islam before the revolution. They can't put aside their personal bias: How could spoiled rich leftovers of a dead dynasty of dictators with a history of repression have any sympathy with the same masses who put an end to their reign?
Easy. The Islamic Republic is THAT unpopular. In other words, it's not that the Pahlavis are popular. It's that anyone other than the current ruling elite -- from Mousavi to Pahlavi -- would be welcomed with open arms, not for what they stand for, but for standing up to Khamenei, his army of thugs, and unbearable religious repression.
Don't kid yourself. Put aside your bias and you will see that Farah Pahlavi is the least hated political personality among Iranians. And in Iranian politics, that means massive popularity.
I'll bet my life that if she got on a plane and went to Tehran, she would shake the foundations of the Islamic Republic ten times more than last year's Green Revolution. You wouldn't see half of Tehran rushing to welcome her as they did when Khomeini returned from exile; in 1979 the Shah had already fled the country and the the generals were demoralized. Instead thousands would show up; dozens, maybe hundreds, would be shot and clubbed to death by basijs and revolutionary guards. And she would be thrown into jail. But the regime would not dare to execute her. Not even this blood-soaked regime. Farah's act of true courage (rather than issuing statements and visiting art galleries in Paris) would make her and the nostalgic secular legacy of the Pahlavi dynasty soar higher in popularity. As long as she sits in prison, the Islamic Republic would have a real problem on its hands, worse than their worst nightmare.
Would she do it? Probably not. But I honestly would not be surprised. If Reza does it, I'd be shocked but the impact would not be much less.
The Pahlavis are THE most significant political "force" out there. I don't like the idea of monarchy, much less the Pahlavi variety experienced up to 1979. But reality is what it is. There's nobody in opposition inside or outside Iran who comes close in terms of the influence they could potentially have. The question is do they have Khomeini's balls?
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Phalavis, popular?!!
by Jaleho on Thu Jan 06, 2011 09:30 AM PSTPahlavis popualr? On Iranian.com cafe and on Kadivar's private parties maybe. But for god sake, come out of your own little minds and walk in the REAL world!
And JJ, you said:
" I'll bet my life that if she got on a plane and went to Tehran, she
would shake the foundations of the Islamic Republic ...."
How many lives do you have to spare? You alreay DID bet it on Mousavi getting elected, Ahmadinejad going to hell, A revolution wiping out the current regime on election day, on Ahmadinejad swearing ceremonies, on Ghods Day, at Norooz, at sizdeh bedar.....
You have more lives than my cat bro :-)
I don't know if it is bad or good that my message would disappear yet again. Soemtimes the forced sanity of getting away from this cafe is better than the time wasted for freely letting out your rage!
Interesting
by Cost-of-Progress on Thu Jan 06, 2011 09:26 AM PSTThe miserable failure of the so called revolution has indeed resulted in a favorable view of the Pahlavis in Iran for at least the past 20 plus years.
I am neither for or against monarchy as I accept any genuine effort and true leadership to pull my motherland from the sewer that it lies in right now and reintroduce her to the international community as a viable and trusted nation eager to prosper.
However, if the case of "oh, sorry, it was a terrible mistake, come back please" becomes a reality, it would mean that our nation just lost 31 years, countless lives and resources paying for a grave mistake that is perhaps second to none in the history of mankind. How can a nation , an old culture such as ours, be so blindsided and gullable?
By the way, you seem to believe that it was the "people" that booted out the last regime. I believe the truth is far different. Perhaps after the fall of the current thugagracy, unclassified documents will tell the real story...... but until then.....
____________
IRAN FIRST
____________
jj
by oktaby on Thu Jan 06, 2011 09:47 AM PSTtitle of your blog is less than appropriate or accurate. I'm not monarchist either but Khomeini's acts were not driven by balls that Shah could and should have cut off many years earlier and had the means to put out the devolution if he were as blood thirsty as Khomeini et al. His bravado was driven by his full knowledge of oil interests wanting Shah out along with BBC, Carter, green belt that were were all behind him….and discontent (not hatred) of the Iranian people that was manipulated into the biggest blunder ever by Iranian people. Not to mention years of organization building by foreign monies and Shah's own mistake with regard to erteja'.
Farah Diba landing in Tehran will be only a flash point. Not because she is not popular but because the regime will bring tanks and guns to the street. And the regime will execute her if for no reason other than to further instill fear. If anything it'll breed more life into extremes and full take over of Sepah (see Hajiminator's related blog). You seem to make the same false assumptions and statements about the previous regime that many who committed the devolution make and seem unable to come to terms with; So you keep comparing previous regime, a progressive dictatorship, with a regressive theocracy. You yourself are mostly the product of the previous rather than the latter. If you don't believe me read your own blogs over the past several years. Now you are playing the pundit and deferring t Pahlavi's as the least common denominator and even within that pick and choose. Not a very good analysis or recipe for fruitful action.
Alireza's (RIP) sad and untimely passing, will serve to remind many of what was and what has befallen us. No more, no less. The necessary step for initiating dismantling of the rapist republic is not Farah Pahlavi landing in Tehran, it is a pivotal decision by Iranians about the next necessary step: [//iranian.com/main/blog/oktaby/necessary-step-ending-rapist-republic]
Oktaby
Bold and interesting observation JJ
by Fair on Thu Jan 06, 2011 09:23 AM PSTThank you for your interesting take, I agree, I am actually surprised to see so much outpour and reaction to the suicide of a lesser known member of an "irrelevant" family and political force when it comes to Iran. May I add that another indication of the unexpectedly enduring relevance and popularity of these people amongst Iranians (for better or worse) is the intense effort of stateless terrorist regime supporters to play down this event, and those who have reacted to it, going so low as to attack a dead innocent person. The vile sick inhuman and anti Iranian nature of these regime supporters and their rapist bosses just feeds more sympathy and nostalgia towards the Pahlavi era as we have seen. Telltale signs of a failed revolution, a failed state, and at its head, an out of touch stateless leadership which will desperately hang on to power at all costs.
May I also add that Khomeini did not need cojones to enter Iran- the Shah had nowhere near the security state that the current fascists had- to the point that the Air France plane that shamelessly brought Khomeini to Iran did not even have to fear deadly force when it flew to Iran. Unlike the murder of Benigno Aquino, Filipino opposition figure who was murdered at Manila airport upon his arrival in Marcos' Phillipines. (btw, Marcos was way more brutal than the Shah, but the Filipino opposition was way more sensibile and mature and civilized, hence the relative state of the two countries today). So it is also a matter of the incumbent government to use all means necessary to remain in power, including murder, rape, torture of its own people on a large scale, - something that the current monarchy of Khamenei beats the old monarchy of Pahlavi hands down.
Thank you once again for your analysis and thoughts.
I agree 100% Pahlavi's are popular!
by Setareh Sabety on Thu Jan 06, 2011 09:07 AM PSTJahanshah joon,
this was my status on fb today: Hello my name is Setareh & I regret ever supporting the Revolution of '79 in Iran. As much as I hated him the Shah was much better than these Islamists. If you feel the same cut and paste this status with your own name.
those who have been here long enough know that I am no admirer of the Pahlavis. In fact my article after the death of Leila angered many monarchists and lost me some old friends. but when I went to Iran and lived there for three years in 2002 I came to the same conclusion you have come. The Pahlavi's are enormously popular thanks to the horridness of IRI and the hatred everyone of us feels towards this brutal regime.
Thank you for expressing what many of us feel so lucidly and without any pretense.
Interesting take, JJ
by mahmoudg on Thu Jan 06, 2011 08:53 AM PSTHadn't thought of in terms of how you put it, but thinking about it, you are correct. Their presence in Iran would polarize the Nation. They may not live to see the fruit of what they started come to frution, but it is what it is. The end result is this Islamic Rapist Cultists and their apologists, in the least including, the Basij, IRGC and any akhonds would be cleansed and gone from Iran.
JJ
by Sargord Pirouz on Thu Jan 06, 2011 08:44 AM PSTYou seem to be one of those guys that blows along with any wind coming. You once changed your name to Muhammad. What's next for you? Muhammad Reza?
You ever read these public opinion polls of persons inside Iran?
//www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/br...
//www.docstoc.com/docs/65872019/Iran-Public-Opinion-2010
Of course you haven't read them. By your own admission, you don't read too much into current events, social science or anything remotely scholastic. You're too busy reading popular, self-indulgent fiction pieces like Love in the Time of the Cholera, which is an accurate gauge of your relative intellect.
So please, stick to what you apparently know--popular dime store novels--and stop making grandiose pronouncements on subjects you're out of touch with. Or better still, read your new business contract, that's sure to someday bite you on the ass.