The Foreign Policy Factor in Iran's Presidential Race
Council on Foreign Relations / Farideh Farhi
28-May-2009 (9 comments)

Again, this is something that makes this election quite interesting because there is no significant organization in Iran that has called for a boycott. The organizations have been quite ambivalent in terms of whom they should support among reformist candidates, but they have all asked the population to go and vote. There is a reason for this, which is because Mr. Ahmadinejad has a limited number of voters who will come out and vote for him no matter what. If the number of people who are voting in Iran is around 25 million or 26 million, or even less, the chances of him getting elected in the first round significantly increases. There are 46.2 million eligible voters. If participation is close to or exceeds 65 percent, then the chances of this election going to the second round increases significantly.

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Ostaad

Q - I agree with you, incumbency is huge...

by Ostaad on Sat May 30, 2009 05:14 PM PDT

That's exactly the point I've been harping on. We had the same situation in the US during the last election, which turned out to have the longest campaign period - almost two years - of the US presidential campaigns. Obama wouldn't have been sitting the Oval Office if it were not for the "new voters" who outvoted the core groups of either party, or at least guarantee Obama's election.

Iran has its own core groups who WILL vote and their votes will be counted. But there's a large group of potential voters, who by voting AGAINST Ahmadinejad can give enough ammunitions to those who are in a position to get rid of him to do so.

I hate predictions but, with Mohsen Rezaie in the mix Ahmadinejad is not the only darling of the Sepah. Heck, Rezaie was just announcing that Iran wanted to create a "consortium" to make nuclear fue. This guy seems to know more that the president. In my view, Ahmadinejad's position is very shaky. He sure did play his badass-boy-from-Narmak role to the best of his abilities, and since GW is gone, he has reached the end of his shelf life.

Iran is willing to show another face to the world, and if I were a gambling man, I'd put my dough on aghay-e mohandess.


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Q

Shooting the messenger

by Q on Fri May 29, 2009 03:41 PM PDT

doesn't change facts. After the Ahmadinejad presidency, the only thing that has been proven a lie is the notion that "they're all the same."

Having said that, I think this is still Mahmoud's game to lose. Incumbency is a real advantage in any contest. He's far ahead at the moment.


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Q

Fred, your answer

by Q on Fri May 29, 2009 03:38 PM PDT

what are all the refutations about? .

Because it's a conspiracy.


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default

To IRANdokht et al.: ALL temporary

by My two cents (not verified) on Fri May 29, 2009 05:13 AM PDT

It is up to people to vote or not to vote that is their prerogative. Voting is the only thing that has not become compulsory so far in the Islamic Republic although some people including some of my relatives back in Iran go and vote to get their birth certificates stamped without believing in the system or any of the "candidates".

But I agree and believe that the only good thing that every four years comes out of this farce of an election is that people and the "candiates" in Iran get a chance to open up and speak about issues and matters that are considered taboo in the Islamic Republic. Of course, rest assured that after the "election" is over, everything will go back to the way it was before.


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Parham

And by the way

by Parham on Fri May 29, 2009 04:53 AM PDT

What a 'significant' publication to publish that out of.


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Parham

Aww

by Parham on Fri May 29, 2009 04:51 AM PDT

"People in Iran are opening up and speaking about issues and the candidates are speaking of matters that just a month ago had gotten many people in trouble and in jail."

Don't worry, in a few months, it will get them to jail again!


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nojanthegreat

thanks for article,

by nojanthegreat on Thu May 28, 2009 07:20 PM PDT

 in fact boycotting the election is not logical. you can not blame Iranian government for what it does when you don’t tell them what you want by voting. and about the election fraud , I don’t really see any resone to believe in that. we Iranian have long history of not voting and blaming it on election frauds and things of that nature, but as we see people are getting better in understanding how governments works . I hope they take local election like city counsel or Majles ( parliament ) more serious.


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IRANdokht

Thanks!

by IRANdokht on Thu May 28, 2009 05:33 PM PDT

Last night I went to what supposed to have been a debate on the Election and both sides were actually for voting!

Even the LA branch JM was there and they were not saying anything against voting either, which surprised me after what I have seen posted on this site alone.

I totally agree that Ahmadinejad will get most of his old votes again and those who do not want him there should definitely make sure to vote against him.

This is very interesting. People in Iran are opening up and speaking about issues and the candidates are speaking of matters that just a month ago had gotten many people in trouble and in jail. 

Thanks for the article.

IRANdokht


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Fred

Protesting too much

by Fred on Thu May 28, 2009 05:24 PM PDT

If there are not going to be any shortages of “voters” in the upcoming Islamist republic’s “presidential election” show,  what are all the refutations about?


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