Conservatives may oust Ahmadinejad within days
Enduring America / Scott Lucas
21-Jan-2010 (one comment)

1535 GMT: But the Best Will Come on Friday. Here, however, is a hint of the most explosive information we have gotten today. It will take us a bit of time to get it in proper context but….

The Plot to Remove Ahmadinejad: It involves at least three high-ranking officials in the Iran Government, one of whom is close to the Supreme Leader, one of whom is connected to the Revolutionary Guard and to Hashemi Rafsanjani, and one of whom is an influential politician but has remained almost silent in the post-election crisis. A fourth key person, who was involved in one of the Presidential campaigns and has a special grievance over the Kahrizak Prison scandal, is complementing the move with public statements.

The initial plan was to “take care” of the opposition in the current crisis and then move against the President, but it appears that this has been overtaken by events: Ahmadinejad may have to go even as the Green movement and Mousavi-Karroubi-Khatami cause complications for the plotters.

 

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FG

He won't be missed

by FG on Thu Jan 21, 2010 11:09 AM PST

Lucas at EA is very, very cautious about reporting rumors.  Where he has doubts about something like this, he usually sasys so.  That doesn't mean that reports such as this won't lead to some behind-the-scenes countemeasure to nip things in the bud. 

Personally I can hardly see how something like this can't happen without Khemenei's approval.   Since the original move was supposed to be against the opposition first (at Khamenei's insistence?), don't expect great improvement if it happens.  The conservatives vastly underestimate how much reform people want, how deeply they mistrust the regime, and how disenchanted they are with restrictive institutions like the Guardian Council or the SL's ability to veto any reform issued by the president and/or parliament and to overrule any liberal decision by the judiary.

 

The standard rule in posting news items at Iranian.com seems to be that you post the original header without changing it.   That poses a problem when there is nothing but a time entry or when something like the into above falls with a group of items that are only indirectly related.   So I apologize here for making my own header.

I had the same problem with a recent post that contained info about hundreds of soldiers holding a coughing protest to disrupt remarks critical of Montezeri at a political re-education meeting.   It was a one-paragraph item that came with a link to the original in Farsi with which I can't read or translate.   The item appeared in yesterday's Enduring America summary.   I posted something about it here under "blogs" where anyone here can look it up.  That blog also contains my own analysis of why such tactics will be hard to counter, what it suggests about the regime's general unpopularity with rank-and-file troops and how such attitudes have so far inhibited Khamenei from a far more brutal crackdown.  Thanks, all.



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