Persian Realm

I don't know if they read Sharp BUT note 8 lessons from Syria

It would be a strategic mistake to shift totally to the opposite approach, open conflict.  The two approaches must work hand in hand.

LEARN FROM THE SYRIANS!!!!

In almost every respect Green leaders ignored every classic strategy approach listed below.  

There comes a time--1776, 1917--even the most optimistic dissidents grasp that a given regime must go and stop kidding themselves.  Iran is approaching 1917 with Khamenei playing Nicholas II and his ultraconservative clerics playing reactiionary, overconfident Aristocrats.   What awaits is some counterpart to Lenin's famous letter to the troops that led to mass desertion.

1. Peaceful demonstrations must come first.  

2. Demonstrations must never be pre-announced  for specific times and place as in 2009.  That aids the regime.  Form and dissolve, then do it again.  Shift locations inside urban areas and in the countryside. Force security forces to remain constantly on the move and limit their sleep and rest breaks.

3. Demonstrations also never stop or be intermittent as in 2009.  It just gives the regime time to recover.  Demonstreations must be widespread, large-scale and continous--not intermittent as in 2009.

4. The moment the regime begins to slaughter peaceful demonstrators, the opposition must have appeals prepared and ready for distribution, asking troops to desert and help defend the such demonstrators.  Graffiti can also assist here.

5. By gradually shifting to a two-proged appraoch (widespread demonstrations and military resistence) and in so many place at once the opposition gives the regime more than it can handle effectively.  Don't forget that as in Syria, a majority of the military will be useless (confined to barracks as untrustworthy.  It is the rest that must be worn down.  

6. As with peaceful demonstrations, any military offenses must be gradual--defensive at first, then launching small-scale surprise attacks in which damage is inflicted and attackers fade away before the regime can effectively concentrate forces.  Never fight as the enemy hopes. 

7. Expect Syria style massacres and atrocities as part of the price of freedom. As in Syria, these are a sign of weakness that always backfire.  Unable to win on the field of battle, as the enemy hits and vanishes, the regimes commit such crimes because they can't think of something that is genuinely effective. Doing so may provide instant emotional relief but if the goal is to suppress the popular uprising, notice how it always swells the numbers of of protestors and drastically increases defections, military and otherwise. 

8. Eventually the opposition must strike militarily at the regime's heartland.   Urban terrain (large cities) especially favor this.   They are also harder for the regimes to reinforce quickly.   Attacks here shake up political insiders and create a huge and demoralizing "We are losing" perception that swells military defections as well. 

OBSERVATION: The regime may know of and expect such revolutionary strategies but countering them is difficult.   It's first move will be to go after perceived leaders and shut down communications.   It's important to take steps and be ready for that.

As My Comrad First Amendment would say: Short and sweet ;0)

How YOUR "Green" Color Was Chosen & By WHOME !