Is This Movement Getting "BIGGER" Than Moussavi?


by Humility

For those of us who have closely followed the events going on in Iran for the past several days, the question has become whether this movement has become Bigger than Moussavi?

After last Friday, and the pathetic election results that followed, the focus was primarily on Moussavi. By that I mean, people were unhappy that their votes were not counted. However, as days have gone by, the movement has become more and more focused on Freedom, and Civil Liberties.

Let me share with you a couple of things:

First, as days have gone by, the Crowds have been getting Bigger and Bigger; not only in Tehran, but throughout Iran;

Second, the Crowds Do Not consist of students only, as in the case of demonstrations past; they constitute people of all ages, and socio-economic backgrounds;

Third, the demonstrators have become saavy in what to do, and what not to do; they are essentially trying to avoid doing things that would lead to a direct confrontation with the Security Forces;

Fourth, as days ago by, more and more Senior-Level Ayatollahs, and Grand Ayatollahs, are supporting the movement;

Fifth, a number of Senior-Level Generals in the Army have Publicly expressed the fact that they Will Not shoot at the demonstrators;

Sixth, the Whole World is watching. The regime in Iran has tried everything possible to stop the leak of information to the outside world, however, because of the wonderful nature of the Internet, everything is getting out, and the demonstrators in Iran can communicate with one another.

For those of us who are old enough to remember the Collapse of the Soviet Union, and the disintegration of the Eastern Bloc, things are eerily similar. As you may remember, things were very fluid back then. No one, including the smartest people in the intelligence services, anticipated the collapse of the Soviet Union. But it did.

Let's hope that this movement that started just on the issue of a fraudulent election, would get Bigger and Bigger, and ultimately lead to the downfall of this tyrannical Islamic Regime. The Momentum is with us. Let's Not Lose Heart.

Iran needs a Secular Democracy. Not An Islamic Regime. Nothing More, Nothing Less!


more from Humility

Fear as national glue

by Russian-Jewish Donkey (not verified) on


(By the way, this "jaan" thing is real quaint. Russian style would be "Greetings Humility!").

In the former CCCP republics & Warsaw Pact, there existed societies that were governed completely and thoroughly by fear. There was no illusion about the government, only fear of it. This fear existed inside the government too. Everybody was afraid ultimately of the leader, who was the most paranoid guy in the country because he was afraid of everybody else.

Such a government could be toppled by a popular protest because with fear gone, a vacuum existed. This was how Rumania’s Ceausescu toppled so quickly. Those nearest him feared him the most. So when the nation’s fear vanished, so did Ceausescu.

Because the IRI is a theocracy, not a "fear-ocracy", it will not topple as readily as Rumania’s dictatorship. Amadinejad is an autocrat, but a charismatic one (reminiscent of Mussolini). He & Khamenei have followers and a regime loyal to them. Street protests will get people killed, but will not remove IRI.

For this reason, expatriate Iranians ought think twice about encouraging their countrymen to revolt. It may suggest to Iranians that a wider world will come to their aid. This was the great fallacy of the first Eastern European revolts against the CCCP - a belief that Western European and American tanks would roll in to rescue them.


Dear 'Russian-Jewish Donkey'

by Humility on

First, I would like to thank you for your elaborate account of the Old Soviet Union.

However, I have to say that you somewhat misunderstood the parallel that I was drawing between the situation in the Soviet Union, and what is happening in Iran today.

Please allow me to explain what I mean: The only parallel that I was trying to draw between the Soviet Union, and present day Iran, is the Fluidity of the situation. You are absolutely right that the mechanics of the two are totally different.

I genuinely believe that this demonstration has transcended the election fraud that we are all well aware of. It has become more of a demand for human rights. Moussavi played a role as a Catalyst to bring this about.

I do not know exactly how things will transpire. Nevertheless, I believe that this is perhaps a risk worth taking.

Finally, I would like to encourage you to express your views further on this matter. Please feel free to leave additional comments to take this discussion further.

Tks - !




Petition to get Google to update satellite images of Tehran

by ramintork on

Please sign this Petition.

With Khamenei's speech today violence is bound to escalate.

By trying to get Google to update satellite images of Tehran, vital intelligence could be provided to the protesters via the net. IRI already has these resources at their desposal so the images would not be used against the protesters but would provide up to date information.

Lives could be saved.



Lose your heart & not your head!

by Russian-Jewish Donkey (not verified) on

“Humility” - your analogy between the CCCP & the IRI is flawed. The CCCP fell because rightists staged a coup against Gorbachev to stop the government’s political and economic reforms. The Red Army refused to back the rightist coup and, acting under the flag of the pro-reform Russian republic, suppressed the coup.

Most the 15 republics within the CCCP were governed by rightists sympathetic to coup plotters, not to reformers. The republics unraveled themselves from the CCCP, not because they were antagonistic toward the CCCP, but because they were antagonistic toward reformists.

The smart people in other nations’ intelligence services were too smart to guess that the most ardent, right-wing supporters of the CCCP would be the ones to destroy it. It took this extraordinary sequence of events to bring down the CCCP. Ronald Reagan had nothing to do with it.

The nearest cold war analogy for Iran today would be: East Germany (1953), Hungary & Poland (1956), and Czechoslovakia (1968). Then as now in Iran, those in power delayed before crushing protest movements because they hoped to avoid the inevitable butchery. If Moussavi does not back down, Iran faces the same fate. A week of protest does not prove the IRI weak. It proves that reformists cannot unseat Amadinejad & Khamenei. Both leaders naturally prefer to see protesters fade away and not be suppressed. This is why the Basiji & Republican Guard have so far held their powder. Iranian’s reformists clearly have already lost.

The most responsible act which expatriate Iranians might perform at this time would be to assuage rather than to inflame their countrymen’s passions. The US 82nd Airborne is tied-down elsewhere and is unavailable to parachute into Tehran to save anybody.