No Fear

NP,

You said;

"but a number here are totally convinced that reform is tantamount to collaboration"

Its a primitive outlook which views politics as the battle between good and evil. Ahrimani vs. Ahuraie, Sheytani vs. Islami  etc. There are no middle grounds. Its US vs Them. Reform, evolution, transition, proactivism its all meaningless to them. Its Jihad time for them. Its unite time for them. its Bomb time for them, It all points to a harsh reality in a non tolerant approach as the "only" solution.

"the biggest error is in underestimating the support base for the government and various state actors in the country"

Well said. the other day i was reading a comment from Abarmard who said something to this effect that its easier to get the majority to agree on a small and concentrated " right " through activism. (He said it better and i am just paraphrasing). It is a more pragmatic approach and its more effective.

"in any case, the great majority of the greens were not revolutionaries at all"

All i know about the Greens is that they flocked the streets and demanded a recount of the votes since the results didn't go their way.They don't have an economical plan and their political direction is not united. They demand democratic rights but advocate undemocratic solutions. Their leaders are hypocrites beyond belief. That sounds revolutionary enough to me.

Niloufar

We have been talking for the past 30 years, and we know our plan,
cause it's not really that complicated to know what you want when you
revolt against a corrupted parasite like regime, ok? And who the fvck
is gonna go into exile and revolt? LOL, WHO?

 Why don't you go cry over your palestinian
buddies cause you show more energy and support for them than you do for
Iranians, that's what you're good at, I suggest sticking to it.

Peace :@

That's good

that we have some common ground NP.  Here are some thoughts:

it is the reason i write something like "you are out
of touch with Iranians at home". calling it 'spewing nonsense' is a bit
confusing. 

Here's an exercise in clarity: nothing makes you more "in touch" with Iranians at home than me, hence the calling it nonsense.  It is a very common thing for Iranians abroad to throw at each other when they don't agree: "You are out of touch with Iranians back home".  Translation: "You don't agree with my view on things, which must be accepted by Iranians back home even though I have no idea of why this would be the case".  I have ways of being in touch, but it is not easy.  The goal of breaking down the domestic-abroad Iranians barrier is to make this easier.

2-Iranians at home be the leaders, and Iranians abroad be support, and
very vocal at that. 

doesn't tally with what you seem to be saying elsewhere, but i agree.

Really?  Show me one place where I clearly suggest otherwise- that Iranians abroad should lead the campaign against the regime.

3-active international condemnation of the regime, and those who do
business with it like China etc.  Isolate IRR like South Africa was

little chance of that. south africa was a global pariah state that was
popularly sanctioned against the will of western governments. .... in the case of
iran, a few powers that be are bullying iran.

The IRR is also by now an international pariah state, thanks to stances taken by Khomeini, Khamenei, AN, and other "luminaries".   Which power is "bullying" Iran?  Iran is not being allowed to get nuclear weapons (and also should not be allowed to do so, as the global community agrees on).  The IRR is not complying with IAEA, and the IAEA says that themselves.  This is hardly "bullying".

this part of your plan is
doomed to fail as there is no popular support for it throughout the
world. the only feasible way is for it to be enforced by the security
council through military means, i.e. to invoke chapter 7. is this what
you are aiming for?

There is already much support for this, and there will be more support if the crimes of the IRR against the people of Iran are highlighted and reminded everyday by an active, vibrant Iranian expatriate community (which is not happening enough until recently).  So no, I do not call for military means, I call for Iranians abroad to lobby on behalf of Iranians at home and transmit their voices into the living rooms of citizens of countries who do business with rapist pedophile stone age mullahs.

but it is a very effective mode of organisation and works against the
greatest powers that are centralised. this is al qaeda's style and how
the internet is organised too.  

The internet works precisely as well (or as bad) as it does because of this concept, which is by design.  And it is not just al qaeda, Yugoslav partizans were like this and created a very huge headache for the Axis armies, and most successful insurgencies were operated in this way.

why not just call it 'alternative propaganda'? 

Simple.  Because it is not just propaganda.  It is debate, thought, and gaining collective insight, all necessary prerequisites to democracy.  Our goal is not brainwash people and coerce consent (the goal of propaganda) but rather to encourage independent thought and diversity of ideas.

the money part of this is risky in that it undermines local movements
especially if it comes from the west.

I am sorry, the west is much less an enemy of the people of Iran than
it was in 1953 or any other time, and certainly much less so than the
IRR regime.

Anyway, The money for all sides utlimately comes from the west.  For the IRR side, they sell oil, the west buys it and they fund their side.  For the people side, the money can come from their comptariots in the west , Iranian expats, which are another Iranian resource more valuable than oil.  Only difference is, the IRR let go of this resource, and not the oil.  So why not put this resource back in the hand of the people of Iran where it belongs.

NP

5-long term cultural and social development- write, make programs,
provide alternative to regime propaganda.  Hold dialogues with others
who have different views.  Monarchists, Khatami, Mellis, Leftists and so
on should all have round tables.

why not just call it 'alternative propaganda'? holding dialogue with others is a minimum requirement. but i guess it is good to be aware of the need

And why is that the case?

Just what is it that you would like to see done? You don't think revolution is the way to go. You don't like everything about the currenrt system and how policies are implemented and then when some one proposes gathering all the potential parties, who may have or (have had) a voice or at some point played a part in politics of this country, You call it "alternative propaganda" and that It is good to be aware of the need??? that is it? It is like acknowledging one's presence and then tell them. Ok now. get the F... away.

Then how are we supposed to implement reforms? How much more time are you willing to waste on Bah bahing this and AHh ahhing that? Are you waiting for a Utopia?

fair

actually we have more in common than you may admit. i don't have a 'plan' as such because i am no revolutionary. i believe in evolution as a superior tactic for achieving the desired goal. one step at a time is more effective because change has to be internalised. it cannot be imposed. revolutions rarely succeed. they are fronts for other agendas like many things in politics. in the case of many expats, my impression is that psychology plays a big part. but this is not an important point here.

let's look at your plan:

1-break down the barriers between Iranians abroad and Iranians at home. 

totally with you on this. this is what i write about the most. it is the reason i write something like "you are out
of touch with Iranians at home". calling it 'spewing nonsense' is a bit confusing.

2-Iranians at home be the leaders, and Iranians abroad be support, and very vocal at that. 

doesn't tally with what you seem to be saying elsewhere, but i agree.

3-active international condemnation of the regime, and those who do
business with it like China etc.  Isolate IRR like South Africa was

little chance of that. south africa was a global pariah state that was popularly sanctioned against the will of western governments. they were later dragged into the sanctions game by popular demand. in the case of iran, a few powers that be are bullying iran. this part of your plan is doomed to fail as there is no popular support for it throughout the world. the only feasible way is for it to be enforced by the security council through military means, i.e. to invoke chapter 7. is this what you are aiming for?

4-non centralized leadership, as Mousavi says, every Iranian is a command center

this is a difficult one. we don't have a history of this method of 'apache' organisation. it would require total unity, and it usually comes about in the event of a foreign invasion. but it is a very effective mode of organisation and works against the greatest powers that are centralised. this is al qaeda's style and how the internet is organised too. 

5-long term cultural and social development- write, make programs,
provide alternative to regime propaganda.  Hold dialogues with others
who have different views.  Monarchists, Khatami, Mellis, Leftists and so
on should all have round tables.

why not just call it 'alternative propaganda'? holding dialogue with others is a minimum requirement. but i guess it is good to be aware of the need.

6-financial support from Iranians abroad for those who struggle in Iran
in this fight- support for the families of prisioners, for radio
programs that give the opposition a voice, and so on.

the money part of this is risky in that it undermines local movements especially if it comes from the west.

so no i did not think your points were 'funny'. i agree with a few of them. 

Peace

NP

so you don't have a plan?

I and others like me do have a plan.  It certainly does not involve supporting AN the fascist.

It also does not involve foreign military intervention or any quick fixes.

I cannot tell you detailed tactics because they are sensitive.  But I can tell you it is one based on real change in the long term and civil disobedience, the way Apartheid was brought down.  The main important points of this plan:

1-break down the barriers between Iranians abroad and Iranians at home.  As long as this bridge is broken, the path towards change will be a dead end.  so people like you don't spew out nonsense like "you are out of touch with Iranians at home"

2-Iranians at home be the leaders, and Iranians abroad be support, and very vocal at that. 

3-active international condemnation of the regime, and those who do business with it like China etc.  Isolate IRR like South Africa was

4-non centralized leadership, as Mousavi says, every Iranian is a command center

5-long term cultural and social development- write, make programs, provide alternative to regime propaganda.  Hold dialogues with others who have different views.  Monarchists, Khatami, Mellis, Leftists and so on should all have round tables.

6-financial support from Iranians abroad for those who struggle in Iran in this fight- support for the families of prisioners, for radio programs that give the opposition a voice, and so on.

This is a  long term fight.  Many see these points and laugh and say "Are you kidding?  Iranians?  do this?"

My answer to them is "Think big".  We Iranians have commited to a huge undertaking- the bringing down of one of the most violent, repressive, dictatorial regimes in our history.  We better prepare ourselves, or else we are doomed.

If you think the above 6 points are funny, and to bring them up is to kid one's self, then you should not be laughing.  You should be crying.  Because until the above 6 points are checked off, Iran will be in the same (and worse) state that it is today.  And the big loser will be the Iranian people.

Iranian people have spoken clearly for the entire world:  We want change.  Now it is a matter of how to get there.  We have to work together.  We cannot expect everybody we work with in this struggle to be just like us.  Until we get that straight, the Taliban fascists will rule Tehran, and the rest of us will be blaming each other.  Even worse, foreign forces may attack us and parts of our country may break away.  Remember Hitler. AN is no different.  Just replace Aryan with Shia Islam+Mehdi.

So NP, now I am curious.  What is YOUR plan?

No Fear

I think you and I are mixing things up.  All the things you are saying may be true- that AN has opposition from the centers that you point out.  That I do not dispute. 

What I dispute is that those centers are taken over by Greens.

Perhaps we first need to agree on what is a Green.

To me, Green is the collection of all parties that

1-believe that the last election was rigged, and the votes were not counted in a reliable, independently verifiable, transparent way.  This is independent, above and beyond any illegitimacy concerns with the way the elections are controlled in the first place.

2-want fundamental changes in the system, i.e. reduction of powers of VF
(that includes down to 0),  giving people their basic rights, and the
end of a security state 

This has nothing to do with issues like Azad university, metro, rahim mashaee, and other current fights which right now are merely diversions from the main issue.

Now, does a guy like Raf go and give some money to help the greens organize and make trouble for AN?  Most probably IMHO, but that doesn't make him the leader.

So for me, the Greens can be regime loyalists as well as monarchists.  The whole spectrum.  Never before have so many Iranians of different persuasions come together and unite at least on one point:

"We want democracy"

That is what Greens mean to me.  If they mean something different to you, then perhaps that explains why all the back and forth with no resolution.

Which brings me to your last point:

If you think ( Or any silent reader who consider themselves Green ),
that your green candidate can challenge the corrupt core of IR, Can rid
our politics from the clerical interferences, can openly talk about
referendum, can take the painful economical correctional steps, can
argue how people dress is none of the governments business, can defend
our nuclear rights, can impose high taxes on businesses who only buy low
to sell high without any production ( Bazaar ), can defy a direct order
from velayate fagih, can allow women to go to football matches ( even
for once to break the taboo ), can can can and can then by all means, 
vote green again.

If your candidate had those qualities, I would be green as a toad!

You neglect to mention one important quality-

Does he promote democracy, freedom of speech, and tolerance?

If not, I want nothing to do with him.

After all, Hitler did a lot of great things for Germany too.  But he was a fascist, he led his country down a path of war, and ultimately defeat and partition, and I guess that didn't work out very well.  AN is not nearly as positive for Iran as Hitler was for Germany.

See my point?  I am not disagreeing with you, it just might be that your and my priorities in this whole thing are different.

and btw, Mousavi and Karroubi have many times said that this election was stolen, and they are forced to accept the  results.  You ask what is stopping them.  I think the answer is clear:

sheer terror by the Islamic republic

no fear

it all got out of control after the elections. people like fair, if my memory serves me right (but this can be checked), used to be far more tolerant and 'fair' in debate.

but a number here are totally convinced that reform is tantamount to collaboration. the violence and self-limiting sides of this approach escapes them. as if there never was a problem bigger than the current regime in iran. it is basically an emotional way of dealing with a failure to make any real difference.

it would be more objective to consider a change of tactic, but few among our friends here would be strong enough to publicy admit errors of judgement.

sad really as integrity is a basic criterion in my view.

to me, the biggest error is in underestimating the support base for the government and various state actors in the country.

i don't know comrade at all to be honest (too much dogma and little heart in his postings), but in my view rosie is a real flower and should be treated as such. with her depth of knowledge and logic, she is or could be the most creative writer here if she forgot about some people around. but just as with the best of roses, watch out for the thorns :)

i don't think there are any real greens supporters around. there were many revolutionaries who saw an opportunity, but soon as the backlash came, they abandoned the greens.

most greens inside iran also abandoned the greens... in any case, the great majority of the greens were not revolutionaries at all.

Peace

NP,

I hear you. we have 149 comments ( Mostly mine though ) and we have yet to encounter a true revolutionary.

Fair's arguement is based on the legitamacy of IR, once he argues successfully the regime is illegitimate, it would be easier to sell another illegitimate arguement in form of the only solution to deal with a non reformable regime. we heard this arguement ( the only arguement ) many times, but Fair is being very civil here and he is raising some good points.

Comrade came and offered a very interesting point in defense of revolution but he never expand upon it. I was really looking forward to it. He is one with the most knowledge of marxist solutions for the real world. if he doesn't come back, i will bug him forever on this issue. i will not leave him alone for making a good point but leaving the debate. That is just rude, won't you say?

Rosie is being Rosie. I always feel Rosie with her questions and remarks represents a genuine pursuit of the truth. She reminds me of the character " piggy" in the lord of the flies. She is rational, ( When she has his glasses on ) and she constantly remind everyone to be rational. I feel not answering her properly, will comeback to bite me in the ass, excatly how it happened in the lord of the flies.

I was itching to have some real green supporter here. But as usual, they avoid me.

no fear

was just comparing your last comment to mine. interesting correlation in approach using very different types of language :)

Peace

Escape,

Unfortunately, activism in our culture ( Iranian ) almost always means that you have to be against the government.

And If you are not against the government, you are not intellectual.

And we have learnt how to simplify politics as well, since a government is either Good or bad. There is no in between. If a guard rapes in the prison, the entire current government becomes responsible.

I belong to a kind of activists who are trying to bridge the gap between our people with the government. We are both pro governemnt and pro people. Thats how we can be among people and also within the government. We are everywhere. We don't see conflicts and revolutions,  we see solutions and evolutions. And yes, we prefer a natural slow process in opposed to a radical dramatic change. At times, one of us, due to his or her position, makes a nice change with the help of others like us. When he is finished, its up to another one to take another baby step.

Many of us have different personal political preferences. But we all agree on our methods and we always obey the majority of the Iranians.

if you want to know about other radical activism, wait and read the replies to my post to you. maybe you will find their methods more exciting and more in tune with yourself. But a shrewd observer will notice that those methods have not worked and are mostly based on raw emotions than pragmatic mature political thoughts.

But hey, if you get the majority to revolt, we will be there to clean the mess you will leave behind.

yes let's just shut up and

have a bloody revolution instead of talking, because that is all that we can manage: violent revolutions with no real plan for what's coming next. we have done it before and since it got us nowhere, let's do it again. and obviously most people want it or will want it, and the fact that they are not out in the streets revolting or bringing the economy to a halt only shows that they will want it, not that they don't want it. also it shows that they are terrorised out of their wits. but they still want a revolution or will want it. and real tyranny only comes from iri - was actually invented by them - and they can stop any opposition. in fact they need it even if they don't know it, so let's have a revolution anyhow, but let it be done by 'ordinary' iranians, while the 'real' iranians  can direct it while baking in the california sun. and once they are finished, and whatever we are left with, we can take comfort in the fact that another group of revolutionary leaders will surely emerge,  emotionally bruised yet comfy in their living rooms in exile directing the next revolt.

not quite a virtuous circle; more like a revolting one.

peace

Fair, Huh?

I presented my case to show you Ahmadinejad does not have any support within the system except for the Guards.

I can give you endless examples to show you how different factions are united against Ahmadinejad within IR, but if you are going to be stuborn not to accept these facts, what i do is useless, therefore this debate becomes useless.

Ofcourse the Guards support Ahmadinejad. But to consider the Guards a power house in our politics displays little knowledge of how our system works. Guards do NOT have any political power in a sense that they could effect laws or introduce them or to have any influence on them. Zilch, nothing!

The only way they can be effective is a military coup! What else do you want a military organization do? Write next years budget plans?

Did you just call the expidiency council irrelevent? You gotta be kidding. This council can overwrite any law ! Their power exceeds all power houses in IR and arguably , its more than VF. Since VF must be bound to certain religious laws, but the Expediency council can even overwrite religious laws! And the beauty of it is that they don't even have to give any reasons why! Its for the regime " Tashkhiseh Maslahat "!  This Council was founded on the notion of " The end justifies the means ".  This council with Rafsanjani as its head represents the most powerful institution in Iran. Although they don't interfere with the day to day politics as often, but when they do, they can completely change IR policy alltogether. here is a list of its members, Maybe you can tell me whether its dominated by the Religious Green politicians or Not, since you seem to know more than i do ( Tell me which one of them is an Ahmadinejad supporter?! );

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expediency_Discernment_Council

And i just posted this link for you to prove the religious greens have taken over the Guardian Council ( You know, another power house the one that becomes very important when we are nearing the elections );

//payamekhordad.com/newsF-2200.html

And there are numerous examples of our parliament opposing Ahmadinejad on different levels. If you need proof or examples , i can elaborate.

You said Larjani is in the same boat as Ahmadinejad since he accepted the election results. Huh?  Ofcourse he accepted the results, everybody accepted the results even mousavi and Karoubi! If Mousavi or Karoubi don't agree with the results, why don't they come out on public TV and Call Ahmadinejad a thief?! Didn't ahmadinejad call them a theif to begin with? So, whats holding them up? Stop with that non sense democracy talk which we all know is dime a dozen when you are the defeated candidate, Come out and call Ahmadinejad a Theif who stole the election. Are they ready to die for their beliefs or do they want more Iranians die for these pathetic jackholes so they can remain in power?

O my dear !, after all my posts and presenting different reasons , you are still hellbent on  Ahmadinejad and Khamenie being on the same team just because Khamenie endorsed Ahmadinejad after the election. Well, khameneie also endorsed Rafsanjani when he became president. He also endorsed Khatami when he became president. Oddly, all three president that he endorsed have very little common with one another, hmmm .... I wonder why?

Maybe when he endorsed rafsanjani, he was a pragmatic, but when he endorsed khatami, he changed his mind and became a reformist until he realized screw both of them and lets endorse Ahmadinejad this time since he is NOT an Akhound and he will be better to run the country! Thats it!

Your take on this issue doesn't add up. Right after the election, Ahmadinejad defied a direct " suggestion" ( read order ) from khamenie not to employ Esfandyar rahim Mashaie in his cabinet. To everyones astonishment , Ahmadinejad made Mashaie his First deputy ! Do you think any of those pathetic green leaders have the balls to do such a thing? Do you know why? Because they all belong to the same family who is running the show since the begining! And now they are calling themselves the opposition... i am speechless, truely.

But regardless, enough damage has been done by our elected president to permanantly change the political norm. I never expected Ahmadinejad to change the system in its entirety. he has done a lot during his first term and its up to the next president to pick up what Ahmadinejad has started.

If you think ( Or any silent reader who consider themselves Green ), that your green candidate can challenge the corrupt core of IR, Can rid our politics from the clerical interferences, can openly talk about referendum, can take the painful economical correctional steps, can argue how people dress is none of the governments business, can defend our nuclear rights, can impose high taxes on businesses who only buy low to sell high without any production ( Bazaar ), can defy a direct order from velayate fagih, can allow women to go to football matches ( even for once to break the taboo ), can can can and can then by all means,  vote green again.

If your candidate had those qualities, I would be green as a toad!

fair

so you don't have a plan?

khamene...

Damet koreye ajor pazi Ali Geda.

well written (The Best)as another friend commented earlier,.      Maziar

How about you all stfup!

 And I say that with the utmost respect towards some of you.
Instead of
Going back and forth constantly trying to decide what kind of
government is needed and what the "green movement" is all about, just
deal with what has to be done, a
revolution. Total change in the system, something that the vast
majority of Iranians want or will eventually want.

  Yes,
a revolution would be bloody, but guess what? that's how you win over
your rights, for your nation and people, none's gonna hand it down to
you, but it's worth it. So let's stop talking and start pushing
through, no matter how hard and bloody it may be, and in the end it
will be worth it, cause Iran's worth everything, my life and your's,
even our family's, that's a true Iranian.

  We lost how many people
in a pathetic excuse for a revolution in 1979, and to only put Iran in a horrible
situation, now we will lose twice as much to get ourselves out of this
situation. So seriously, let's stop talking, barking, and pointing
fingers, and just do it. For our future, and for the future of our
youth.

  No Fear thanks for

  No Fear thanks for responding to my comment on your blog.You are willing to wait for the regime to change slowly towards a more secular policy,I feel that's just as much of a argument for the Revolution as you make of it against the Revolution.In other words,you are willing to wait,other's may not be but are being forced to do so by a military dictarship.You say the people must be united in a majority fashion for a Revolution to succeed,but the statement united we stand,divided we fall is true.

You say the Revolutionary's have no goal but I say the goal of change,any change is the same as the goal of waiting for Regime to change itself. You still didn't answer my question of if peaceful activism is allowed in Iran.I think you know,it's not which would mean your goal of using peaceful activism for a change toward's secularism is really just a copout.I respect you,I hope you don't think calling that a copout is offensive but I don't see you as one of those who use hyper sensitivity to dominate and I wish you would go further into explaining just how the activist's and secularist's are to go about bringing a more tolerant society..

I respect your knowledge of Iranian politics in the inner circle and so I do have to believe you a little bit when you say waiting for that change is possible,but I'm still unsure.I'm not for any invasion or bombing Iran but I do believe if the people rise like they did last year,the Regime should react more sensibly and not continue to divide the country between the Greens and the Regime.They have created their own problem and until they come to grips with it instead of blaming it on foreign intervention's as they always do,they will never solve anything but cause more tension.

Thanks

The "green" Larijani

that you say controls the judiciary defends stoning:

//www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2010/07/100709_u...

I hardly consider this person part of the green movement.

Well said Rosie

Thank you, indeed the IRGC is today by far the most powerful institution of the country, and it does not look very green to me.

Wrong on all counts no fear

1- As you know Hashemi Rafsanjani heads the most powerful
institution in IR with overwritting rights over our Parliament and The
Guardian Council ( IR version of the Senate )

Really?  Evidently he could not override anything to do with AN, as he has been pushed aside and silent, and his family threatened.  So the "power" you claim he has seems to be missing.  Fact is, the real power is with the leader and his cronies- the assembly of experts and guardian council.  And they are hanging on tight, the expediency council has become irrelevant.

2- Our parliament is another power centre headed by Larijani.

but then you say

Larijani himself is a
rightwing traditional conservative who believes in Velayate Fagih,

hardly the definition of a green.  Furthermore, while you say 

he is at odds with Ahmadinejad on almost every issue 

He is NOT ad odds with AN on the main number one issue- that the election results.

3- The Judiciary is another power house. Need i elaborate on whose side
this institute is on?  The head of this Institute is Sadeq Larijani 

Yes you do need to elaborate whose side this institute is on- that of the leader.  Because he is APPOINTED directly by the leader, who is unelected.  And he is not a green at all.

4- Velayate fagih.  we discussed this before and its safe to say that
Khamenie is NOT a fan of Ahmadinejad. 

Really?  He was fan enough to declare war on the people of Iran in order to keep AN in power.  That hardly qualifies the leader as a green.

5- Guardian Council is an extremely important power house when we get
closer to election time. 

Evidently so.  And it not only is not controlled by greens, its mere powers are the target of greens' concerns.  The greens are by definition people who dispute the election which was controlled and certified behind close doors with absolutely no transparency by this very council.

So No Fear, none of these institutions you mention are on the side of or controlled by greens.  Greens are those who do not accept the election results, and all of the above bodies have accepted the election results.  So you are wrong on all counts.

Yes, I can not prove that the election was falsified, but I can raise massive doubts by merely pointing to the reality- that the side which CONTROLS the election and has FULL ABILITY to prove once and for all in front of the whole world that the results of this election are correct has REFUSED to do so.

And no amount of you trying to talk about other things can change this very very basic fact.

And no, I do not see how an ultra right wing islamic fascist military figure like AN serves any purpose for secular democratic forces in Iran, even if he does not like Rafsanjani.

If there are NO issues about fraud , then the system becomes legit based
on your logic. 

Absolutely incorrect.  Lack of fraud is necessary but not sufficient for legitimacy.  In addition to fraud, there is a controlled screening process of candidates which has no accountability to the people of the country.  There is a lifelong leader with dictatorial powers.  When the fraud goes away, I will complain about these things only.  The fraud just adds one more to the list of crimes against Iranians by this regime.

The question is what to do next?  Revolution or Evolution? 

The answer to that lies entirely in the hands of the regime.  So far the regime is saying "if you want change, it will have to be through revolution, because I will not tolerate even the most nonviolent, peaceful, silent expression of opposition, and I will observe absolutely no limits in answering such opposition".

The revolution that results from this and all its consequence are 100% the responisibility of the regime (controlled by AN and leader), and will happen irrelevant of what you and I discuss.

NP

what do you mean by 'So the Baazaris don't get terrorized, the people
do'? which 'people'? 

Quite simple- regular people who come out in the streets.  Did you notice them?

that there was abuse of power is clear.

understatement of the century

this action, however, is the part where you seem to have no plan and no
connection with iranians.

BS, I have no less connection with Iranians than you do.  I am an Iranian too.  Save your holier than thou attitude.

on top of that, it seems that you reject outright anyone else's plans
-
anyone inside iran anyhow 

Really?  Which plan did I reject?  The one that supports AN against Rafsanjani?  Yes, I reject that, as do millions of other Iranians INSIDE IRAN. So is there any other plan that I rejected, or are you just spewing out random accusations?

Have respect for Iranians, you don' get to decide who is entitled to have what opinion.  I will not stand with dictators, that is my and every Iranian's right.

to ali khamenei, the khalifa of all muslims, from qom to london

and Toronto and beyound:

First, I apologise for not writing in farsi, My farsi font screws up my computer, it must be a american joo bog.

2nd, Rregarding our beloved sister(s) here, I prefer sister "no fear" better when she shows me one of her eyes. But she's shying away from me. That only makes me more haar unfortunately, you know what we iranian men are like ?...

Comment of the month award!!!!!!!

for Seyyed Ali!!!!  

LOL :-)))))))))))) 

چه زیبا مکتوب کردید فرزند راستین انقلاب "نو فیر"

"یا اّیها المسلمین اطبعونی لاننی ربکم و انتم عبادی." (القأید الثوره العظیم السید المتکدی علی‌ الخامنه ای)

__________________________________________________________________________________

بنده هر وقت که کتیبه‌های این فرزندان راستین انقلاب همانند خواهر "نو فیر" یا خواهر "نیلوفر پارسی‌" یا پسرم "ابرمرد" را در این سایت میبینم از خوشحالی مانند آن جوان بسیجی‌ میشوم که برای اولین بار باتوم به دست گرفته و به سوی تظاهر کنندگان یورش میبرد....به‌ به‌...کاشکی‌ که من میتوانستم که در جای آن فرزند عزیز اسلام باشم....

ولی‌ بگذریم.  غرض از حضور من در این کتیبه این است که به توجه خوانندگان عزیز بیاورم که سرمایه بیت المال اسلام به حدر نمی‌رود.  چند سنه قبل، موقعی که آقای محسنی اژه‌ای تصمیم داشت که این دو خواهر عزیز "نو فیر" و "نیلوفر پارسی‌" را استخدام کند من با آن مخالف بودم.  دلیل مخالفت من هم آن بود که زن طبعاً ناقص العقل و ضعیف است.  روایتهای بسیاری در این باب آماده است که نیازی بر تکرار آنها در اینجا نیست.  لاکن آقای اژه‌ای من را خاطر نشان کردند که به دلیل تسلط این دو ضعیفه بر زبان شیطانی انگلیسی‌ و مهارت آنها در ربط دادن باد معده به شقیقه آنها خواهند توانست که در بلاد غرب از نظام مقدّس جمهوری اسلامی دفاع به عمل آورند.  من هم اکنون میبینم که آقای اژه‌ای چه درست اذعان کرده بود.  آفرین و صد آفرین.

علی‌ المثال شما این کتیبه را مشاهده بکنید.  ۳۱ سنه است که نظام مقدّس ما در قدرت است.  هر چه هم که دل زیبایمان خواست با مردم ملعون و شیطان بلاد فارس میکنیم.  تازه شخص بزرگ خودم دو روز پیش اعلام فرمودم که باید مثل خدا از من اطاعت کنید.  با این وجود خواهر "نو فیر" فوری کتیبه نوشتند که ناراحت نباشید بالاخره آزادی خواهد آمد (اگر چه امکان زیادی است که آن آزادی به سبک یک چماق در سر مبارکتن باشد).  و خواهر "نیلوفر" هم فوری دستک و دمبک برداشت و دایره زنگی به دست گرفت و از ایشان تعریف و تمجید کرد.  واقعا که احسنت و صد احسنت....

بعله، نگران نباشید.  همه چیز درست خواهد شد.  در روایت آماده که معجزه امکان دارد.  مگر زمانی‌ که بنده در جلوی حرم مطهر امام رضا (ع) در مشهد تکدّی میکردم کسی‌ فکر میکرد که من روزی خلیفهٔ بلاد فارس شوم؟  ولی‌ به یاری خدا و دوستانی همچننین خانوم "نو فیر" بنده، گدای در مسجد امام، خودم شدم امام.  آن هم نه هر امامی، بلکه امام بلاد پر از برکت نفت و پول.  حالا شما هم دلٔ خودتان را با خواندن این کتیبه‌ها خوش کنید و منتظر "اصلاحات" باشید.  به اذن الله همه چیز درست خواهد شد.

السّلام علیکم و رحمت الله و برکاته.

No Fear, power houses

1. You do not mention IRGC as a power center.

2. As you know Hashemi Rafsanjani heads the most powerful institution in IR with overwritting rights over our Parliament and The Guardian Council ( IR version of the Senate ).

You can't call something a version of the Senate if it isn't elected.

3- Our parliament is another power centre headed by Larijani. The parliament can be a real pain in the ass for the government for refusing to pass bills or budget introduced by the government to become law. And this is exactly what they are doing now.

What do you mean by '"for/by 'the government'" here? This is a crucial question.

3- Also these two brothers have another brother whose name i think is Ardeshir Javad Larijani who happened to be Mohsen Hashemi ( Rafsanjani son ) business partner.

Mohammad Javad (Ardeshir) Larijani (whatever the parentheses mean). But the Sahimi article does not mention any business partnership with Hashemi or in fact any business interests at all, let alone accusations of corruption. Why not?

//www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2009/08/nepotism-the-larijani-dynasty.html

He does mention two other brothers that he says very little about.

4. The " secular greens " in Iran were the big losers for following the Green movement. Specially when the Leaders of opposition come out and loudly declares Khamenie the as highest authority in Iran. 

Which was when and who?

5. If there are NO issues about fraud , then the system becomes legit based on your logic.

No, No Fear, based on your logic. I am sure Fair will tell you (again) that the system is illegitimate to begin with regardless of electoral fraud because there are no real elections due to the non-elected clergy determining the candidates. A point made over and over again ad infinitum by various people.

You yourself said (if I understood correctly) that Ahmadinejad was only allowed to run because they expected him to lose, so whatever truly anti-establishment stances he may take, you can't credit the establishment for allowing that. What you can say, and what you did say, is that without the IRGC he wouldn't have a wing and a prayer, which brings us back to my original point on this post which is that you left out IRGC as a power house. Which brings us back to the important strand of the thread on this issue.

Dirt and dust

Below is the longest excerpt from the speech that I found in English. It is not even 100% clear whether the dirt and dust section came right after the soccer part (but I think it did), and the whole dirt and dust paragraph is a very awkward translation.

I believe the more correct translation for what is called 'dirt' is actually more like 'sawdust' only you can't say 'sawdust and dust'.

Are there some nuances here I'm unaware of? This is such an outrageous and indefensible thing to say when over a million people are protesting. How could anyone respect someone who said something like that to begin with? Unless I'm missing something???

//www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/18/iran.ahmadinejad.comments/index.html

In Sunday's remarks to a rally at Vali-e Asr Square in Tehran, he said, "The Iranian nation is united. In a football match, there are 50,000 to 70,000 spectators. Those whose team has lost are angry and will do anything to vent their anger. Forty million people participated in the elections in Iran. They themselves were the players, and they determined [the outcome].

"Now four or five dirt or dust creeping from the corners may do something. But you must know that the pure river that is the Iranian nation will not allow them to put themselves on display."

Fair, ( On Green Movement )

Political analysts in Iran all agree that the Green movement consist of two main groups of people. One is the " Religious Green " and the other is the " Secular Green". Both Karoubi and Mousavi belong to the " Religious Greens" which also represents the traditional core of the the old reformists who are currently allied with Hashemi Rafsanjani "Kargozaran e sazandeghi" political party. 

1- As you know Hashemi Rafsanjani heads the most powerful institution in IR with overwritting rights over our Parliament and The Guardian Council ( IR version of the Senate ). The Expediency Council is at odds with Ahmadinejad and for the last 6 years , every position it has adopted ( Under Rafsanjani ) was against Ahmadinejad's Governments.

2- Our parliament is another power centre headed by Larijani. The parliament can be a real pain in the ass for the government for refusing to pass bills or budget introduced by the government to become law. And this is exactly what they are doing now. While Larijani himself is a rightwing traditional conservative who believes in Velayate Fagih, he is at odds with Ahmadinejad on almost every issue from the Hejab and monkerat bill to the elimination of subsidy and foreign policy etc etc etc and he critisizes the government sharply on a regular basis. The majority of the parliament is against ahmadinejad. Just look at the Azad university scandal , the metro scandal  and other events to realize every time they have voted on an issue, it was to Mousavi and rafsanjani's benefit.

3- The Judiciary is another power house. Need i elaborate on whose side this institute is on?  The head of this Institute is Sadeq Larijani who is the brother of the parliament speaker ( Ali Larijani ). The Judiciary has refused to open the old corruption files which could implicate Rafsanjani's family members. Also these two brothers have another brother whose name i think is Ardeshir Javad Larijani who happened to be Mohsen Hashemi ( Rafsanjani son ) business partner. Both have been accused of corruption by Ahmadinejad and official complaint has been filed against them by the administration. Mohsen hashemi for taking bribe from Statoil oil company and Javad Larijani for illegally claiming 300 or 3000 ( Can't remember ) acres of land around tehran and transfering the ownership to himself. None of the corruption files have been taken to trial. This indicates Khamenie direct interferences in this matter .

4- Velayate fagih.  we discussed this before and its safe to say that Khamenie is NOT a fan of Ahmadinejad.

5- Guardian Council is an extremely important power house when we get closer to election time. I just gave you a link in this thread that shows this institution is currently under the " Religious Green " control.

As you see, Ahmadinejad is surrounded by unfriendly officials who are sympathetic to the " Religious Greens ".

The " secular greens " in Iran were the big losers for following the Green movement. Specially when the Leaders of opposition come out and loudly declares Khamenie the as highest authority in Iran. The secular Greens picked the wrong team to defend their rights. Many secularists  are in Ahmadinejad's camp now. Needless to say, the results of some of Ahmadinejad's policies has made many secularists happy in Iran and they are pushing for more.

I always maintained my position when debating secularists on this site. Choose your candidate not because of what he is saying, but because of what he is doing. I don't care if Ahmadinejad saw a halo around his head. ( That was a very serious thing to say by the way, since only imams and prophets have that halo and here we had a regular doctor who was not a clergy and claimed he has the halo as well. Do you see the implications? ), I saw how he used that incident to silence his religious rivals. Look at the result of his actions.

Based on everything i said, If the Green movement candidate had won the election, I would have been suspecious of election frauds since a green victory was exactly what the elite ruing class was looking for.

I can't prove the election was healthy and neither you can prove it was fradulant. It was an orchestrated effort by the ruling class to push an opponent aside.

If you need to have this arguement going because you want to make a point of the illegitimacy of IR, I can offer a solution that since we are both looking for change , the legitimacy of the system is irrelevent. A weakness in your arguement is when the next election comes around. If the reformist win that election without any issues about frauds, then your whole arguement becomes pointless. Since your case against the illegitimacy of the system no longer hold its base. If there are NO issues about fraud , then the system becomes legit based on your logic.

The question is what to do next?  Revolution or Evolution? 

fair

what do you mean by 'So the Baazaris don't get terrorized, the people do'? which 'people'? 

the bazaaris are better organised than most other groups, it is true. they brought in the mullahs in reality. and they are the most likely group to mobilise against a process of secularisation, with the mullahs standing right behind them. no fear is arguing that the sepah would not be standig behind them necessarily.

that there was abuse of power is clear. and i agree with you that the people of iran 'have waited long enough'. it is time to stop waiting and take some action. this action, however, is the part where you seem to have no plan and no connection with iranians. on top of that, it seems that you reject outright anyone else's plans - anyone inside iran anyhow. you know, plans by 'the people' of iran.

any plan by 'the people' outside of iran is futile for as long as there is no mass following or support for it - by definition.

hope that answers your question. 

so what is the plan that you have in mind? and how do you plan to mobilise people inside iran for it?

Peace

hi rosie

i was referring to the bazaaris because of this line in fair's comment:

"We all know there is one reason this "riot" is not happening in large numbers on the street now:

Sheer Terror by the Islamic Rapist Republic"

Point was that there was a general strike by the bazaaris against ahmadinejad's tax policies without any fear of 'sheer terror', and that the general lack of support for the greens (e.g. no general strikes last year) is/was a reflection of a lack of support, not 'sheer terror'.

not saying that there is no abuse of power, but fair's comment was not quite fair either.

Peace

Deh! deh!

Such a beatifully conducted discussion just had to be ruined... Somebody had to come in and do the honors.

Sheytooneh migeh bezanam ye seri Commentaro Flag konamaaa...