No Fear

Interesting News No Fear

It just proves my point (and the one you brought up yourself earlier)- that this system will not let anybody outside of its own mafia in, will recycle the same old dinosaurs at the expense of the people, and is not reformable.  Thank you for sharing and proving this point even further.

The Guardian Council is far from being independent

The GC is controlled entirely by the leader and/or people chosen by the leader.  Somebody independent of the leader cannot make it into the GC.  Furthermore, if the GC truly looked into election results and found it to be legit, can anyone have access to their inquiry and their findings?  Where are the results of this inquiry published, and are the ballot boxes preserved for a recount to happen?  Were the opposition allowed to observe the recount openly and transparently?  Were they allowed to take their challenge to the results to court?  Obviously not, they had to take it to the streets, and even that was criminialized.  Any challenge to the election results (no matter how peaceful) has been criminalized, and nobody outside of the leader's control has been allowed to witness the recound and results and confirm your claim.  So sorry, but no dice, the GC's endorsement of the sham election was not even close to an independent inquiry.

Not having a big tent is the real problem here No Fear.  

An independent inquiry panel would have to at least have the agreement of the "opposition", i.e. the Moussavis and the Karroubis.  I am giving a huge discount here by not even saying the opposition at large- that is those that don't accept the leader, because such people could be executed just for being against the leader.

You bring up a very good point about the "reformists" not complaining one bit about the process itself beforehand.  And this point only proves more and more why this system is unfreformable- there is NO room for people outside of the mafia approved by the leader.  Which is why the term "reformist" is misleading.  The "reformists" are not even beleivers in democracy (at least openly), and the people are desperate and have no choice.

Your point which I totally agree with just illustrates that the islamic rapist republic is an airtight mafia that lets nobody in and recycles its own mafia internally.  It is so airtight that it cannot even live with its own insiders sometimes, let alone those who have other ideas.  This is how they treat loyal opposition, what do you expect the real opposition to be treated like?

So no, this election is far from independently verified, this group of "reformists" is far from being able to do any type of reform, the murderer in your avatar and his bosses are far from willing to accept any type of reform, and in short, the islamic rapist republic is far from being reformable.  The discontent you see in Iran is nothing new- it is just visible because of an internal struggle within the islamic mafia in power. 

Continue like this and you make the mistake of the Shah- you fool yourself into thinking enough people support you when they don't, and one day it will explode in your face.  Except this time it will be much uglier, with much worse consequences, possibly involving foreign military intervention and breakup of certain parts of Iran, and widespread suffering.  And you and your camp will be fully responsible and recognized by history as being so.

The only thing that has prevented this from happening so far is the existence of one of the most elaborate and lawless security appartus in the world, as well as oil money in the hands of anti Iranian government to fund this apparatus to openly threaten and fight the Iranian people.  Very violently and very brutally with no shame or limits whatsoever.  

It Sure Ain't ... BUT ... The "R" Word IS ...

"R" For "Restoration":

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=zeVcOBHLDyE

LOL

Fair,

Here is an interesting little news i just found today.

//payamekhordad.com/newsF-2200.html

Can you guess whats cooking down the road? Doesn't it seems like the old incompetent reformists are gearing up for a comeback? How many rightwings candidates do you think would be disqualified now? Who do you think gave the green light to the parliament for these three judges to enter the Guardian council?

This is what happened to one of Ahmadinejad's supporters in the Guardian Council;

//payamekhordad.com/newsF-806.html

Fair,

There was an independent inquiry in to the election result after the endorsement of Khamenie, and that was the " Guardian Council".

But lets take this debate up a notch and let me offer a new angle here;

Why when the Guardian Council qualifies Karoubi and Mousavi as eligible president candidates , meanwhile disqualifies hundreds of other applicants, we did not hear any opposition from these two candidates about the unfairness of this process that keeps putting the same group of politicians in power?  Why when the system works in their favour , they don't say nothing about democracy and freedoms? But they only started quacking when the very same process didn't work in their favour?  Don't you find this odd?

Now, if we assume ( Try understanding my point here for a second ) there was no fraud in this election and Ahmadinejad won this fair and square, then you can argue that Ahmadinejad won with 25 millions of votes from %85 of all eligible iranian voters. Even if we add 6 million Iranian exiles votes plus one million bahaie votes to the Mousavi camp, still  Ahmadinejad would have won.

I belong to the same majority of Iranians who put Ahmadinejad in office. And ofcourse, minority rights must be respected. Isn't our parliament completely at odds with Ahmadinejad? didn't they try to give the Azad university to rafsanjani and mousavi?  just yesterday they announced they will give a billion dollars to rafsanjani's son for the metro project.

Make no mistake, If the new and modern rightwings are defeated in the next election, you will see the same old group of dinosaurs back in the office, faster than a pedophile running after a school bus. Mousavi will have a position, so would Karoubi. Then the world can celebrate that Iranian have found true democracy since opposition leaders are in power. What a joke...

( Do you really think Khamenie or the Guardian Council will qualify someone like Esfandyar rahim Mashaie to run for presidency?)

Fine, bring in the domestic opposition

That is right- if you don't want someone from outside Iran, even someone neutral like the UN and cannot even trust them, then at least bring in someone domestic that is not aligned with the alleged victor, i.e. the other side- Mousavi and Karroubi, etc.  If you do not trust the other side, then bring in domestic neutral people, like the judicial system.  If you do not have any such people, then your system is invalid by construction.  Indeed Of course, in Iran, the judicial system is NOT independent, which is a violation of democracy to begin with.  If you do not have an independent neutral non partisan body in government for these cases, then you have a problem and the path to dictatorship is guaranteed. 

The election results were announced very quickly, the leader endorsed it the same day, even before the guardian council endorsed it (which is against the law), and everything was very very fishy.  All challenges to the election were met with swift crushing force. Why?

In any election, the losing side should concede the election if there is confidence that the votes were counted fair and square.  There should be transparency.  In Iran's case, this was far from being the case. 

I will also accept what the MAJORITY of Iranians want.  But neither you nor I know what that is today- because the government of Iran will never allow a free democratic election in which the candidates are not approved by the leader and his "men" to take place.  I wonder why? What are you so afraid of?

Are you afraid of what the MAJORITY of Iranians want?  If not, then let them vote for who they want, not who YOU want!

And lastly, it is not just the will of the majority that matters.  Equally important are the RIGHTS of the MINORITY.  The MINORITY has a right to protest peacefully and speak and write as they please.  The moment a government takes that right away it is a dictatorship, no matter how many people voted for it.  The other side never took that right away from their opposition, so what you say does not apply to them.

Practice what you preach.  Yield to the will of the majority of Iranians.  The first step to that is free democratic elections, in which no guardian or any other council gets to select the candidates.  Until then your using the words "majority of Iranians" is meaningless.  

Fair,

There is a certain arrogance associated with power centers in the world and Iran is no different. What i mean by that is, when the spiritual leader endorses the results and the Guardian Council announces that the election results stands and the amount of discrepancies are nowhere near 10 million votes ( the difference between mousavi and ahmadinejad votes to change the results) , it seems pretty dumb to ask foreign entities to come over and validate the election results.

Especially when there is so much mistrust between IR and foreign sources. What if the foreign entity despite finding nothing wrong, it will announce fraud at the end? Wouldn't that be a serious blow to the Guardian Council and the IR leadership? Why should they ( IR ) allow themselves to be played like that?

When Khatami and the incompetent reformist came to power, they were endorsed by no other than the leadership ( Khamenie ).  But perhaps the most important factor which kept the guards and conservatives in check ( willingly or not ), was the overwhelming support which Khatami received when coming to office. We all accepted what the majority of Iranians asked for.

There is a reason

that so many people, including steadfast opponents of religious government of any form, consider nonviolent indirect confrontation to counter this regime:

and that is sheer terror.

The late Shah of Iran had nowhere near this level of terror deployed on the street, in the faces of everyday citizens.  This regime invested heavily for decades in a multilayer security apparatus which has unlimited resources and no restrictions whatsoever to wage war on the Iranian people.  The people cannot win, but we do want to fight.  In fact, I would say that the security apparatus of this regime is more elaborate and multi-tentacled than most, if not all that we have seen.  Consider the Nazis, the Stalins, the Saddams, the Ceausecus, the Pinochets, the Khmer rouges.  All of them had one or a couple of bodies of a secret police, with a rather clear command and control and accountability- to their leader.  These murderers have so many layers of uniformed and nonuniformed people with license to kill as many as they want in the name of Allah.

The main nonviolent movements we have seen in the 20th century are those of Gandhi in India, MLK in the US, and Mandela/Tutu in South Africa.  I would say had any of these movements been faced with the Islamic republic, they would have faced mass rape and execution with no shame, and I doubt they would have succeeded.

The path that Khamenei and AN have chosen for Iran will inevitably lead to bloodshed.  At this point the question is not whether violence is a good idea or not.  Violence is inevitable.  The quesion today is how can it be minimized.  It is too late to speak of peaceful solutions, this is just dreaming.  I wish I could say otherwise, but the truth is the truth, and I have never been a big believer in self -delusion.

"this topic has gone long enough. "

precisely 31 years long enough!

But no worries, with the islamist khalifa's funding of these blogs drying up , thanks to the sanctions, we can focus on better things to discuss. for instance, how to get all the stolen money slashed away by khalifa khamenei in london banks, back to iran, after his execution by hanging in front of syrian embassy in tehran....

What a waste of time

I think it's pretty clear now what NO FEARS motivations and beliefs are.  He is pretty much in favor of a military junta taking control of Iran and ridding themselves of the mullahs or any other opposition for that matter.  The mullahs are just a way to appear legitamite.  But they have been working behind the seens to make sure an old guard like themselves is brought into the power structure and it appears to have payed off.  Look at all these high positions that were filled by old guards.  All these contracts given to them.  

This topic was just a ruse.   No Fear could care less about human rights, freedom, democracy etc.  He wants to see IRGC supremacy.  eh, this topic has gone long enough.  

And thirdly, this military

And thirdly, this military is not a private company
that owns %60 of Iran ( Validation of your figures are needed ). There
is NO difference whether the government owns a property or the military
owns it.

Actually, the guards are more like a private military, with semi-independence from the government which I believe is how it was molded into thanks to rafsanjani.

Here is the 60% and your beloved corrupt leader:

The Guards' Economic Might

The Khatami administration prevented the Guards from intervening in the
official economy. To finance their activities, the Guards began
illegally importing goods worth around $12 billion a year, making huge
profits. During Karroubi's tenure as Majles speaker in 2000-2004, he
stated that 63 seaports were not under the government's control, but
were being used by "others" -- the Guards -- for illegal imports. The
Guards also wrested control of Tehran's new international airport from
the Khatami administration, closing it by force and threatening to shoot
down any aircraft that tried to land. It was also during this period
that the Guards made their first attempt to enter Iran's lucrative oil
and gas sector. It staged a helicopter attack on an offshore platform,
terrifying the employees of a Romanian company that was working there.

With Ahmadinejad in power, there is no need for such operations. In
addition to the Guards' import operation, now valued at $70 billion
annually, he has allowed them to practically devour the national
economy. Under the guise of implementing Article 44 of the Constitution,
which mandates privatization of major industries, his administration
has held fire sales of major national assets, including
telecommunications, "selling" them to Guard-affiliated organizations and
giving them contracts worth billions of dollars in fields such as oil,
gas, and rail. According to a reliable estimate, the Guards control
about 60 percent of the official economy, in addition to its tight grip
on the black market.

There are two additional aspects of the Guards' business activities
to keep in mind. By law, the military does not pay any tax. And,
according to the Constitution, any organ of the state that is controlled
directly by the Supreme Leader cannot be monitored or inspected by the
Majles or other oversight organizations, unless the Leader orders it.
Since the Supreme Leader is the commander-in-chief of Iran's armed
forces, there is no effective monitoring of the Guards, which has
allowed their affiliated firms to perform very low-quality work.

The projects carried out by the Guard-affiliated companies also
suffer from chronic budget shortfalls, far exceeding what had been
agreed to at the beginning of the projects. Although corruption is
undoubtedly one reason, more important is the fact that the firms
usually declare that they can carry out any large project at a price far
below what its requirements dictate, providing the Ahmadinejad
government with a ready excuse to award them the contracts. Once the
contract is awarded, the budget shortfall surfaces. The development of
phase 16 of the South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf, the largest in
the world, is an example. Iran's share of the field, shared with Qatar,
is supposed to be developed in 28 phases. Phase 16 was awarded to
Khatam ol-Anbiya a few years ago. In January, Sadar Ghasemi, the
organization's chief, declared that it needed an additional $1 billion
to finish the project. The Ahmadinejad administration then allowed
Khatam ol-Anbiya to receive the shortfall from the treasury without
Majles approval.

//www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbure...

more on the IRGC grip on the economy:

//www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2008/RAND_MG82...

Then please explain

the answer to my earlier question.  If indeed this was a fair election, what does the regime have to hide?  Open up the ballot boxes, invite inernational observers into the room, and count all the votes transparently for everyone to see.  That will be the end of all discussions.  Many people have called for this to happen.  The answer of the regime was bullets and oppression and mass murder and rape.  With every life lost, every threat made, every baton hit to a civilian, comes that much more doubt and goes that much more claim to legitimacy.  A year later, there is too much doubt and too little claim to legitimacy, and I am afraid you will have to do better than "I sincerely believe...."

If during Khatami's time your side had disputed the 90% (or whatever the number was) figure and Khatami's government had responded the same way, the same doubt would exist.  But none of those 2 things happened.

Until you and your side can show the people of Iran and the world verifiable evidence that the election was not stolen, you have no ground to stand on, and it is then that I sincerely believe that you do NOT sincerely believe what you said.  Sorry.

Hey

Has "Jack" found a name for his new product yet??:))

I hear lot more people get sick eating jack in the box that other fast food places.

"Fraud" or not, IRI's elections are a sham

There is only one political orientation allowed at any level of the IRI: Khomeinism, and that goes for candidates in its sham elections, pseudo-president, and pseudo-"parliament". We might as well describe the "elections" in the former Soviet Union or Cuba as free and fair (and Cuba & North Korea claim higher voter turnout in their "elections" than IRI).

Keep in mind that those who

Keep in mind that those who opposed the presidency of Ahmadinejad, are those who are responsible for stealing the revolution in the first place and introducing their own brand of IR. How ironic that they have become the opposition voice now. Ahmadinejad is a new comer in our politic and he is as fed up with the corruption by these old dinosaurs as you and me.

What horse manure. So Khamenei and all the other mollahs behind him aren't corrupt dinosaurs and haven't been at or near the top of the IRI for 3 decades (as if the thief Rafsanjani and his gang were the only corrupt ones in the system. Sure, whatever). So IRI has become freer and more democratic since 2005? What was a rotten seed (Khomeinism) will always remain rotten. Everything else is a distraction--and 31 years of this rubbish is long enough.

Fair,

I sincerely believe the election was an honest election. I don't believe the fraud accusations. I have read all reports that i could find and none can conclusively prove the allegation. What makes you think this election was a fraud , but Khatami's win which claimed close to %90 of the votes was not a fraud?

Don't you think IRGC and baseej and other conservatives were far more capable to come in the streets and disrupt the election results during Khatami's era?  But we watched in horror that incompetent joker win for a second term again. Did you ever thought how we felt back then?

I am glad we atleast agree on a non violent peaceful gradual change is needed for Iran's future.

Secondly, this candidate can

Secondly, this candidate can not continue its presidency over a 4 year terms ( Max. 8 years ). This does not fit a dictatorship profile.

The IRI's Leader has been the leader for 21 years and can NOT be popularly elected. Sounds like there's a lot of democratic potential in that IRI. 

No Fear,

As usual you are repeating yourself again. 

And you don't? AN is the latest Botshekan; he is "breaking taboos"; making "reforms"; ushering an exciting "new" era for IRI, blah, blah, blah. Everyone has already heard your shpiel before. Isn't it so?  

So whats next?  A violent revolution? How? Why ?

I don't know what will come next (who knows for certain?), but in my opinion what should come is Regime Change. Why? Well, you know why: IRI is by far the worst regime Iran has had in a long time, and it is unreformable in any substantive way. How? That's a more difficult question. But I'll give you my opinion...There are two main indispensable things that regimes, especially authoritarian ones, need to stay in power: force and money (and to a large extent, money is needed to purchase the means of enforcement). The first step for Regime Change in Iran would require very stringent sanctions that would have a major impact on significantly depleting the IRI's money (and this would have to include its oil money). If the regime's funds (especially oil) diminish in a major way, then that will start the process of weakening the regime and its ability to buy the means of enforcement. If more and more IRI goons, parasites, hangers-on, and propagandists see that the IRI can't "butter their bread", then they have less and less incentive to go out and crack heads, sow mayhem, and propagandize. In such an environment of a weakened regime, I believe that some sort of "crisis" will be needed as a "spark" to catalyze the process of Regime Change. I can't say for sure what that "crisis" would be: it could be economic (e.g. falling price of oil and/or labor unrest and/or problems with financial institutions, etc) or it could be military (e.g. a conflict with the U.S.). For example, there is precedent for military conflicts leading to Regime Change (Argentina after the Falklands War, Yugoslavia after NATO bombing, etc). Again, no one knows precisely what the future holds. Maybe, Enqelab-e Mahdi will preclude all this--I hear AN saw some sort of halo while at the podium at the UN, though that may or may not have been Mahdi-related phenomenon.

Doctor X,

I reply to post in the order they are received. haven't got to fair yet.

Rosie,

First of all, at this stage of our politics, we are not dealing with a military government similar to military dictatorships that existed before..

We are dealing with a candidate which was supported by military organizations. There is nothing wrong here. Even military personnels have a right to vote.

Secondly, this candidate can not continue its presidency over a 4 year terms ( Max. 8 years ). This does not fit a dictatorship profile.

And thirdly, this military is not a private company that owns %60 of Iran ( Validation of your figures are needed ). There is NO difference whether the government owns a property or the military owns it. They belong to the government. If certain contracts are awarded to the military to carryout, its because of the sanctions we can not attract foreign investments, therefore, the military is the most qualified force within Iran to take over these projects since they have the "free" labor and equipments.

Based on the above reasons, we will not have a ghaddaffi type dictatorship in Iran. But if our military decides to vote as a political bloc again, they might be able to introduce another candidate.

PS. read my reply to Doctor X as well.

NO fear

You seem to be doing this just because you love to debate. Just for the hell of it, don't ya?:)))

You don't pay attention to what is being said here:(( I think what Fair said sums it up beatifully as far as the elections and it results and the method used to reach them are concerned. If you are still in denial after reading that...

Please do not edit my comments for me. I did not insert that "NEW" in there. You did. At this point it really does not matter who used what tactic and against whom. The whole thing is that there is some kinda force out there, that will not let thing proceed in peace. That is what really matters.

I am defenitely keeping that in mind. yes siree bob. This is a situation where you have two factions that are fed up with each other and (this is the part where a big portion of posters here have been trying to tell you) a majority who despite being devout muslims are tired of them both.

Putting 2 and 2 together here should come naturally!

eroonman,

Thanks for your elaborate reply. I respect your non violence approaches but i am afraid the type of activism that you preach can't be effective to even change the policies of IR, let alone change its characteristics.

Unless you have a strong leadership which can unite all different groups and factions together and be popular among masses.

None of the above conditions are present or could be present in the foreseeable future.

Why not join a "real" reform faction within IR?  or support them by your vote?

Doctor X, ( On velvet revolution ).

"The velvet revolution is what precisely was warned about/against by the ( NEW ) government."

In other words , it was a warning from Sepah to the old oligarchic class that they can use similar tactics to eliminate them if they interfere with the process of the election by trying to nullify the results. ( Same tactic they used to nullify Banisadr presidency ).

Keep in mind that those who opposed the presidency of Ahmadinejad, are those who are responsible for stealing the revolution in the first place and introducing their own brand of IR. How ironic that they have become the opposition voice now. Ahmadinejad is a new comer in our politic and he is as fed up with the corruption by these old dinosaurs as you and me.

Comrade,

it seems like you have something new to add to the debate. Lets hear it.

What conditions are required for revolutions to take place?

I like the direction you are taking.

Amir1973,

As usual you are repeating yourself again.

yes yes and yes i heard you before.

IR is raping everyone, and they burnt people in the cinema, and they executed millions and its the most violent sons of bitches around and they are doing this shit for 31 years.

So whats next?  A violent revolution? How? Why ?

OnlyIran,

Well, if the regime is so efficient in putting down any uprising as you have suggested in your post, why not look at a different approach?

or do you suggest more and more attempts must be made until the regime falls? 

thexmaster

"Many uprisings and revolutions happen spontaniously and their goal is an unalienable right to freedom from the status quo.  I see ideologies more structured and concrete, though they are also goal oriented.  Examples are valayet-in-fiqeh and communism.  The velvet revolution, and the the green movement I dont see as concrete idealogies except for the need to be free from the status quo, which one has ultimately lead to a democratic system. "

You are probably refering to a massive civil unrest, like a country wide strike which will mostly bring down the government but not the system. Some event must trigger such uprising if it is spontaneous. I won't deny the possibly of such event happening, but IR politicians can usually detect such unrests at early stages and dealing with it accordingly, whether by force or compromises.

The death of your argument

is in your own statement:

Having said that, i believe there were no fraud during last year
elections. The party which lost the election, had won it before numerous
times.

You know that there was fraud, so does the whole world, including the murderer in your avatar.  For a very simple reason- if there were no fraud, if there were nothing to hide, if it were legitimate, then the government would openly and transparently show the votes in all the precincts to anybody interested, including third party neutral observers from the UN.  There were MANY MANY opportunities to prove there was no fraud, and avoid this entire mess.  That is, if there was nothing to hide.

So why didn't they?

And why do you come here, with no shame, over a year after all these executions and rapes and violent suppression the likes of which are rarely seen anymore in the 21st century on this planet, pretending like this election was honest?

Its only natural to think that people no longer believed in the
reform slogan they were chanting and supported another candidate which
offered real changes and reforms. 

Two major flaws with this weak attempt at justifying the election results:

1-It is not the reform slogan that people did not believe in- it was in the viability of the reformists' strategy (one which you continue to believe will work)

2-Even in the presence of (1), if indeed the majority voted for AN the fascist, it could have easily been shown to the world transparently and the discussion would have been over (see above).  But AN the fascist did not do that.

Why?

This regime is not reformable.  Of course a nonviolent peaceful gradual change would be better.  But the regime has clearly shown and has drawn a line in the sand- that it will not tolerate opposition of any kind.  Therefore whatever happens next and whatever bllood and suffering comes is on the hands of Khamenei and AN - the most dangerous fascists of our time.

It is that simple.

No Fear, you wrote COP,

Why not support a velvet revolution which offers a gradual and step to step progress? Isn't this what is happening now? A faction supported by the military is pushing aside religious clergies from positions of power? Lets face it, the ruling clerical class were incompetent and many in iran have noticed this.

First of all, shouldn't a 'velvet' 'revolution' (I suppose you would prefer 'evolution) be away from military government? And you know that this 'miitary' is not just supporting a faction to push aside clergy from power. They are that faction. They are installing their own in the postiions of political power. And you also know (far better than I do) that this 'military', this 'Velayate Sepah', owns about 60% of the country (that's the figure I've seen several times). Are you sure this is progress?

This emerging political order seems to me to be yet another strange beast (another fine product courtesy of 1979), and whatever it may be, it doesn't sound like a 'velvetish' 'evolution' to me. Mr. X1 wrote way below: we may end up with some ghadafi type or sadam type running the show. Does that sound so far-fetched under these circumstances?

___________

XMaster wrote more recently: The green movement tried this, [Velvet Revolution] with millions coming out.   Even the term velvet revolution was trembling off the mouths of the mullahs.  And No Fear (again, as I'm sure you know), Javani himself played on the same term to threaten Mousavi on June 11. If he attempted a 'velvet coup', it would be destroyed. 'Velvet coup' was probably the most common charge in the show trials, as I recall.

Don't you find it a bit ironic that you use the particular term 'velvet revolution' given this background?

"Revolution is not a solution"

howls frightened little cyber bassiji  on iranian.com!

How about a new job, anything less shameful than what you do now :)