«مرحم زخم ایران و ایرانیان ازادی است»

dear captain ayhab

first of all, i hope there will always be full wind in your sail and your ship speeds away safely.  with regard to your comments:

-   i suggested that your method is “log-linear” and not linear.  linearity stemming from your constant assumed fertility rate, and the logarithmic or exponential behavior stemming from the population momentum that will occur.  in essence, i’m in agreement with your statement as it concurs with my earlier statement.

-   i’m not confusing life expectancy with fertility rate and was explaining the complexity of calculating “population estimates.”  in an overly simplified model, a population at time t+1 = pop. at time t + births – deaths (i’m excluding migration).  number of births are affected by fertility rate as you mentioned.  to make it more complicated: fertility is affected by level of education (e.g., delaying parenthood) and other factors (e.g., improvement in nutrition, health care).  number of deaths include natural and premature.  death was absent from your suggested simple analysis ( earlier, i just simply assumed that by fertility rate you meant “net birth rate”).  life expectancy is a mixture of natural and premature deaths, in other words the higher infant mortality a country has the lower its life expectancy.  you can bring many other factors such as epidemics (pandemic flu, smallpox, …), wars, man-made disasters (chernobyl, genocide), natural disasters (famine) to adversely affect life expectancy.

i will not bore you and others with this topic as i think it’s more important to discuss the issues regarding the research methods for the findings on this book.  one of my area of research is with regard to population effect in face of epidemics.  that’s what initially attracted me to this topic.  i searched and found an interesting article by amir afkhami titled “comprised constitutions: the iranian experience with the 1918 influenza pandemic.”  i ordered the article through my work and will share the results for those who are interested.  the abstract can be found at:

//muse.jhu.edu/login?uri=/journals/bulletin_of_the_history_of_medicine/v077/77.2afkhami.html

the loss of lives during world war one in iran (and many other parts of the world) was due to famine, epidemic, unscrupulous landlords who hoarded (ehtekar) food supplies, occupying troops (not just the british), and the compounding factor of the occupying forces who both consumed the much needed food but which also have been credited for spreading the pandemic flu worldwide.  i would like to see how afkhami separates the effect of pandemic flu from these aggravating factors.

with regard to the population of iran during 1917-1919 and number of lives lost due to famine, i found many sources that used 2 million population loss in north and northwestern iran (also cited was one quarter of the northern population).  all of these sources used a secondary source, j.m. balfour, recent happenings in persia (edinburgh and london, 1922).  in this book (which you can freely access online), the author seems transparent and uses caution on using his estimates; although, it seems that it was the most comprehensive work to that date by an individual to estimate the population of iran.  you can find the link at:

//books.google.com/books?id=hfiabmiggh8c&dq=recent+happenings+in+persia+balfour&printsec=frontcover&source=bl&ots=y4jpyrtcoo&sig=es-grefdi9kt9eupbj6dxzqs1je&hl=en&ei=q_udsv2tbir0mtv1_myf&sa=x&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1#ppa26,m1

i believe that the estimates are on pages 3 and 4: (13.4-17.4 million for 1922). he even breaks down the population by provinces so that you can estimate the proportion of population in northern iran with respect to the entire population.

 there’s also another useful source which i’ve also ordered: “julian bharier.  a note on the population of iran, 1900-1966.”  you can access the abstract on:

//www.jstor.org/pss/2173024

i will share these results as well.  free of charge :)

i’m not here to only refute the points on this book.  books and journal articles are published to be read, enjoyed, critiqued, applauded and debunked.   even if this book is not well-researched, the topic is interesting enough to get us all hot and bothered and may lead to someone doing a better job the second round.  a good example of a "bad" scholarly work turning into many good ones is that of malthus (which you mentioned).  in the field od economics, malthus is mostly used as a reference in fallacy of logic.  if you google his name with fallacy, you get a boatload of hits.  and that's one boat that not many captains dare to navigate.  however, he roused the curiosity of many good economists and ultimately many good works.  i cannot fully judge the book until i read it but until then, i will express my opinion on what i’ve hear about it on this blog ;)

cheers

Re: Noosh Afarin, response to your last comment

«با اینکه <سر نوشته> مطلب شما  صد در صد با من نبود، با مواردی در نوشته های شما برخورد کردم که لازم دانستم‌ نظر خود را مطرح کنم.»

پاسخ بنده به خانم سوری در اشاره به جنابعالی نبود. غرضم فرهنگ دروغ پردازی ما ایرانیها بود که دارای قدمت چند صد ساله هست.

«اما، شما ادعای(  Jan Lahmeyer  )  در نوشته اول خود که  کاملا فاقد اعتبار است، و هیچ سندیتی برای پشتوانه نوشته های سرگرم کننده خود نداشت، را دلیل و برهان برای رد کردن (کار تحقیقی تاریخی دکتر مجد )،که برای کارهای ایشان سند معتبر وجود دارد ،و در کتابهای ایشان نیز درج شده است؛ اوردید.»

از قرار معلوم جنابعالی از روی غرض شخصی حتی زحمت بررسی منابع موثق ارائه شده در تارنمای مربوطه را به خود نداده اید. ولی من خود به جای شما در کامنت دیگری (زیرتر) این کار را انجام دادم که سایرین بتوانند بخوانند و خود قضاوت کنند.

حتی اگر منابع بنده اعتبار قطعی نداشته باشند (که هیچ منبعی نمیتواند صد در صد داشته باشد)، نه شما و نه آقای مجد تا کنون به جز تکرار کلمات «گزارش اول و گزارش دوم سفارت» و چاشنی کردن چند اسم، هیچ گونه منبع ملموس و قابل بررسی ارائه نداده اید.

پس این اسناد «معتبر» سفارت آمریکای آقای مجد کجاست؟

به علاوه، 2 درصد رشد جمعیت در سالهای 1914 را ایشان آخر از کجا آورده اند که ما نتیجه گیریهای ناشی از آن را بپذیریم؟ دست در کلاهشان کرده اند و در آورده اند؟

آیا در قانون شما کسی نمیتواند این گونه ادعاهای بی اساس را زیر سوًال ببرد؟

ادعای بی اعنبار 250 میلیونی آقای مجد را هم فراموش نکنیم. تصور میکنم که آنرا هم از کلاهشان درآوردند. در غیر این صورت من از آقای مجد دعوت میکنم که این رقم را به نوعی ثابت کنند و یا اینکه مدرک سفارت آمریکایی خود را از محدودهً «فقط حرف» خارج کرده و در معرض عموم قرار دهند.

خانم

خانم خاله موشه افرين  بالاخره انقدر کتمان کردي و  جواب ملت با لاطاعلات و حجويات بی سر ته دادی که کنون دروغ هايه سابق خودت هم يادت رفتست .شما انگاری تابحال اهل ادب و کتاب خوانی نبودی و بتازگی تصادفی يک کتاب خواندی از مثال صد تا يه غاز و ادعای پيغمبری ميکنی ماشااله ولي کافي نيست .و متاسفانه همين يه کتاب را هم از عهده دفاعش بر نماييد با ان منطق و اخلاقييات اخوندي و قمه کشی . بنده خدا جناب اقايه مجد که مدافعينی دغل از جنس شما دارد که ته ابرويه ان کتاب بی سند و هردمبيل را با جوابهايه توهين اميز و ابلهانه از کف دادند .    برويد و توبه کنيد از اينهمه مکر و حيله برايه حفظ يه مشت اجنبی و لحاف ملا . از قديم العيام گفتند شخص را از همنشينانش شناس که شده قضيه اين خاله خانم و اخوان هميشه در صحنه اش که همگی مريدان گوش بفرمان رژيم فسق و جور و قتلند و شب و روز چون مبصر جهنم اتش نفرت باد ميزنند و عرق ميريزند که مولايشان سيد علی دشمن ملت ايرانی تطهير شود . سر پل سراط و خر دجال امدست.

Mohammad Gholi Majd

I have read 3 of his books and I find them well written, well researched, well documented.

I have not detected an outright deliberate omission on his part indicating lack of judgement and due process in basic established research methodologies.

The quotes from various american or british personalities get difficult to follow at times but it doesnt diminish the quality of his research.

The points the author intends to make are clearly spelled out and backed by documents from the department of state and treasury. He also indicates where and how he has retreived the information and therefore the same set of documents should be available to all of us if thats what we wish to do.

From what I have read so far I surmize that the greatest opposition and insults to his work and character is coming from pahlavi monarchists who have come face to face with the naked truth about reza khan in a documented manner and what they have built on shaky foundations and lies has collapsed around them. 

The fact that a massive and popular revolution threw the pahlavis out was not enough to bring these folks to their senses and staying true to form they fight tooth and nail to preserve their delusions by trying to discredit historical facts. 

This has been a tragic and forgotten part of our history

Thank You for this presentation. There is no doubt that Iranians suffered in great numbers, no one of that generation has a good memory of this time frame. I believe both the Pahlavis and the IRI have paid little respect to the history of crimes committed during this era.

Thank You Noush-afarin.

Re: Noosh Afarin

1. You refute the site I provided on Iran's population. You claim that the author of the site does his work for hobby. This is turning stones since in your haste to find a negative, which is probably due to your personal views, you forgot to even look for the site's sources.

Here is the link again:

//www.populstat.info/Asia/iranc.htm

At the bottom of the page, you can find the sources, Iran Statistical Year Book and KB (KnowledgeBase). It seems that you didn't bother looking at these sites.

Here is a link to the first one, Iran Statistical Year Book:
//87.107.85.99/references/statistics/isy/default.htm

It indicates that Iran's population in 1290 shamsi (1911 AD) was 9 million, and in 1300 (1921), it was 9.7 million. This is within +/- 2 million of the other source. So they are close. This also suggests that there must have been a drop in population growth (due to the famine) somewhere along those years, but nowhere near the 8 millions that Dr. Majd claims.

Here is a link to another source, Statistical Center of Iran, SCI, confirming the same numbers:

//www.sci.org.ir/portal/faces/public/sci_en/sci_en.selecteddata/sci_en.yearbookdata

Turkey, a similarly populated country than Iran (after Ottoman's breakup), had a population of 13.6 million based on an actual census conducted in 1927:

//countrystudies.us/turkey/24.htm

This means that even Turkey must have had a population of much less than 13 million in 1914.

Dr. Majd claims that Iran's population in 1914 was 20 million. All other sources indicate that it was between 9 and 11 million.

I have provided my sources. Since Dr. Majd has honored us by visiting this blog, could he also provide his "American" sources so that we could take a look? I doubt he would or even could.

Dr. Majd mentions a "first" American report and a name, Vazir Mokhtar, Herbert H. Bowen, but no other tangible or verifiable source or document. Where is this report?

He then refers to the "second" American report and another name, again where is the report?

He then claims, "Dar zemn vazir Mokhtar America (Charles W. Russell) ezafeh mikonad ke  be aghideh (Iranian motaleh), jamiat Iran dar haman sal 17 million ast."

Charles Russel be chi ezaafeh mikonad? Who were these "Iranian motaleh"?

Dr. Majd also claims, "Agar mohafezehvar farz shavad ke dar 1910 jamiat Iran 15 million boudeh va roshte salaneh 2%, jamiat dar 1920 mibayasti 18 million bashad"

But Iran's population was NOT 15 million in 1910. He is starting with a false premise and then he builds on it. Additionally his invented 2% population growth rate is just that, invented. Where is his source for 2% growth?

Iran's population growth was not any higher than the then richer country of Turkey in 1910. the growth was around 0.6%:
//87.107.85.99/references/statistics/isy/default.htm

It seems that Dr. Majd keeps inventing numbers.

2. You then say that if I am interested in "true historic documents", I should visit the thomas.loc.gov site?? How US congressional activities have anything to do with the issues discussed in this blog? Perhaps you made an innocent mistake and pasted the wrong address. 

3. You also say that I have ignored the central points of this blog (the famine) and instead I have mixed in Shahbazi's interview on Dr. Majd's work.

I don't understand this. Didn't you yourself mix Shahbazi in your blog, which was supposed to be about the famine in the first place? Then you complain why I wrote about that part? Then perhaps you shouldn't have included it in the first place. 

I rest my case.

Re: Mr Majd

Sorry Sir. In one of my past comments I've got too emotional and my words got over my thoughts. I didn't mean to accuse you of the things I'd said there (as I don't know you really) Unfortunately, I can't modify the words of that comment. Please accept my apologies about the words I'd used there, and take the general content instead.

Thanks for your understanding.

اقای منوچهر عوض نیا؛

حتما اینکار را برایتان میکنم. من لینک این بلاگ را برایشان فرستادم و ایشان جواب خود راطبق نظریات بعضی از کامنت دهندگان دانند

ایران احتیاج به شاه الله هان نوکر یا خر خمینی پرستان حزب الله ندارد.
«مرحم زخم  ایران و ایرانیان ازادی است»

هموطنان گرامی، Mazdak, Anonyb

 هموطن گرامیMazdak ؛ حق با شماست‌. جمع بندی اشتباه است. ولی منظور  من این است که بینش گروهای مختلف را بابدخواند  تا توانست  تصمیم و انتخاب درست اختیار کرد. ممنون از یاداوری شما.

هموطنان گرامی، Anonyb ممنون از لطف شما، درست میفرمائید. من اخرین کارم را که تماس با( اقای دکتر مجد) بود انجام دادم. و بیش از این هم ، به گفته شما:‌ وقت صرف اینکار نمیکنم. هر کس مشتاق بود میتواند کتابهای« دکترمجد »را از کتابخانه و یا کتابفروشی تهیه کند،و خود قاضی ان باشد. 

ایران احتیاج به شاه الله هان نوکر یا خر خمینی پرستان حزب الله ندارد. 
«مرحم زخم  ایران و ایرانیان ازادی است»

اگر با آقای مجد تماس دارید، بهش بگید که....

۱) یک سخنگوی باسواد تر از شما بره پیدا کنه که حد آقل در نوشتن به فارسی‌ غلط املایی نداشته باشه، حالا انگلیسی پیش کشتون

۲) دفعه دیگه که ایشون خواستند دوباره اظهار فضل بفرمایند، مدارک و
اسناد معتبر بیارند. اینکه میفرمایند " در اولین گزارش سفارت آمریکا، در
دومین گزارش سفارت آمریکا،..و غیره" این گزارش‌ها را کی‌ به ایشون داده؟
دربان سفارت آمریکا؟

۳) اگر مدرک و سند دارند چرا نمیارند اینجا رو کنند؟

۴) اگر حرفی‌ برای اثبات نظرشون دارند و به قول شما تمام کامنت‌ها رو
خوندند، چرا نمیان اینجا که جواب گو باشند؟ ایشون که بلا خره همه ناسزا
هارو شنیدند، از چی‌ ابا دارند؟

۵) ایشون که این مقاله فارسی‌ و همه کامنت هارو خوندند که نصف بیشتروشون هم به فارسی‌ بوده، چرا به انگلیسی جواب دادند؟

نوش آفرین؛

با سلام،  اگر با آقای مجد در تماس هستید سه موضوع را به ایشان در باره ی خراسان شمالی که زادگاه من است به ایشان یادآور شوید:

1. تبعید ایل شادلوی بجنورد به اصفهان در زمان رضا خانی یا رضاشاهی

2. به دار آویختن هفت تن از سران ایلهای شادلو و قراچورلو بجنورد در مشهد.  حسین قلیخان قراچورلو پدر خانلرخان قراچورلو نمایندۀ مجلس شورای ملی تا سقوط شاه یکی ازاعدامیان بوده است. 

3.  سرکوب ترکمانان در شمال خراسان و مازندران

فرزندان بازماندهگان این وقایع هنوز در محل هستند.  پس از انقلاب شنیدم که یکی از ایشان بنام هوشنگ شادلو در صدد نوشتن کتابی در باره ی ایل خود برآمده بود.  غرض اینکه شایذ این خرده اطلاعات حوزه ی تحقیقات ایشان را به خراسان هم بکشد. 

با سپاس

بلی

بلی دانش نشانه قدرت است نه دهن بینی!

ایران احتیاج به شاه الله هان نوکر یا خر خمینی پرستان حزب الله ندارد.
«مرحم زخم  ایران و ایرانیان ازادی است»

Na baba? really?

جمعی از ایرانیان بیشتر از انکه بخواند و به دانش خود (بخصوص) در
مورد نگاهبانی از اب و خاک و مرز خود بیافزایند؛ دهن بین هستند. این همان  یاه بختیست که از دوران بسیار قدیم با ان دست به گربیابانیم. به گفته  زرگان: دانش نشانه قدرت است). نه دهن بینی.

!!!Man, that's why you are here!!! Because you rely on this truth

!!But trust no more, Iranian people are waking up

No more people like Mr Majd and other "jirehk horan" could fool the Iranian now. Especially those who live in Iran now, don't give a dime to this guy and his alike "mordeh khor". History gave us a lesson

خانم نوش آفرین وقت خود را تلف نفرمایید

خانم عزیز

مشاهده می کنم که وقت گرامی خود را در پاسخ به لاطائلات یکی از همین شاهی های کم سواد تلف می نمایید.

با پاسخ او به زودی متوجه خواهید شد که امثال اینها نه استدلال تاریخی را درک می کنند و نه اسناد تاریخی و نه نقل قول از سفرا و افراد مطلع و نه شیوه های تاریخ نگاری و نه هر استدلال علمی دیگر را.

همانطور که عرض کردم استدلال علمی فقط با افراد بی تعصب و کاردان معنی دارد و نه با کم سوادهای متعصب سیاسی.

با تشکر مجدد

Noosh Afarin

While we're on topic of historical accuracy, not every member or sympathizer of the Tudeh Party "repented" (your response to Jamshid) and hence "nullified the Party's past analysis of Reza Khan." Far be it from me to defend the Tudeh or its record but many of its members and sympathizers served long term jail sentences or stood in front of firing squad after the coup d’état.

اقای جمشید؛

با اینکه <سر نوشته> مطلب شما  صد در صد با من نبود، با مواردی در نوشته های شما برخورد کردم که لازم دانستم‌ نظر خود را مطرح کنم.

I long for the day that unbiased and fair Iranian researchers and scholars can be funded to conduct and publish their research in
safety and without fear of persecution, and based on facts instead of personal feelings.
اقاجمشید؛  هموطن گرامی؛ شما اگر ، لااقل، یکی از کتابهای ایشان را میخواندید، بیشتر میتوانستید  (صحت یا کاذب بودن) انرا مورد بررسی قرار دهید. من چندین کتاب از بر پا کنندگان (حزب توده) خوانده ام؛ نه انکه چون طرفدار توده بوده باشم. بلکه از طریق  بینش انها نیز میتوانستم   در مورد (خاندان رضا خان) بیشتر بیاموزم. بگذریم که افرادحزب توده با نوشتن ندامت نامه های خود، خودشان را نفع کردنند، و باد به پرچم بودنشان بر همگان ثابت شد.

در مورد دیگر شما فرمودید:
There is so much mistrust when we Iranians read most anything written by most anyone, and rightfully so..
امیدوارم که ازبیان بنده دلخور نشوید. اما، شما ادعای(  Jan Lahmeyer  )  در نوشته اول خود که  کاملا فاقد اعتبار است، و هیچ سندیتی برای پشتوانه نوشته های سرگرم کننده خود نداشت، را دلیل و برهان برای رد کردن (کار تحقیقی تاریخی دکتر مجد )،که برای کارهای ایشان سند معتبر وجود دارد ،و در کتابهای ایشان نیز درج شده است؛ اوردید. در اینجا سخن شما، عمل قبلیتان را نقض میکند.
===============================
 I think you'd agree with me that our culture has been suffering from the disease of lie, unaccountability and irresponsibility for too long.

I don't know what the solution is.

=============================== 

جمعی از ایرانیان بیشتر از انکه بخواند و به دانش خود (بخصوص) در مورد نگاهبانی از اب و خاک و مرز خود بیافزایند؛ دهن بین هستند. این همان سیاه بختیست که از دوران بسیار قدیم با ان دست به گربیابانیم. به گفته بزرگان: دانش نشانه قدرت است). نه دهن بینی.

به امید اینده ای بهتر از امروز برای ایرانمان!

ایران احتیاج به شاه الله هان نوکر یا خر خمینی پرستان حزب الله ندارد. 
«مرحم زخم  ایران و ایرانیان ازادی است»

با تشکر از خانم نوش آفرین و آقای مجد

جواب علمی جناب آقای مجد با توجه به اسناد و نقل قولهای معتبر از سفرا و محققین در مورد جمعیت ایران قبل و بعد از قحطی بزرگ سال 1915 کافی و رسا است.

البته این اسناد برای کسانی کافی است که روحی بی تعصب و علمی دارند و نه برای ملیجک های درباری یا نخود هر آشهای رقاص که نه اطلاعاتی دارند و فقط قصد هوچیگری دارند و بس.

در ضمن با تشکر از نظرات علمی کاپیتن و جناب منوچهر و سایر دوستانی که با مراجعه به افراد کهنسال خانواده خود گواهی بر صدق تحقیقات علمی آقای مجد دادند.

من نمی دانم که این درباری بازی و پهلوی پرستی و شاه و شاه دونه بازی چه درد بی درمانی است که هر ناکسی که گرفتار این درد یا مشابه آن (آخوند پرستی) شود فورا به انکار اسناد تاریخی معتبر می پردازد و تمامی تاریخ را مطابق خواست اربابان مرده و زندهء خود تفسیر میکند!

خانم نوش آفرین و جناب مجد با تشکر مجدد از شما

Yahya T

I just realized this Malijak Farah called me Yahya.

Dudet its too late for you to change my name to Yahya, keep guessing, I need some laughter while reading serious notes of educated people.

-YT

P/S

 Mr. Majd says[(Agar mohafezehvar farz shavad ke dar 1910 jamiat Iran 15 million
boudeh va roshte salaneh 2%, jamiat dar 1920 mibayasti 18 million
bashad. Agar jamiat 17 million dar 1910 boudeh, dar 1920 mibayasti az
20 million balatar bashad.) Dar 1920 sefarat America
jamiat Iran ra 10 million va jamiat Tehran ra 200,000 gozaresh dadeh.
Vazir Mokhtar, (John L. Caldwell) Shaki nist ke dastkam 8-10 million
Irani ghorbani ghahti va amraz marbouteh shodand]

Assuming the data can be verified, growth rate of 2% will result in doubling the population in 35 years [See rule of 70]

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_Growth_Mod...

Excerpts:

The exponential law is also sometimes referred to as The Malthusian Law (refer "Laws Of Population Ecology" by Dr. Paul Haemig, 2005).

The Rule of 70 is a useful rule of thumb that roughly explains the time periods involved in exponential growth
at a constant rate. For example, if growth is measured annually then a
1% growth rate results in a doubling every 70 years. At 2% doubling
occurs every 35 years.

The number 70 comes from the observation that the natural log
of 2 is approximately 0.7, by multiplying this by 100 we obtain 70. To
find the doubling time we divide the natural log of 2 by the growth
rate. To find the time it takes to increase by a factor of 3 we would
use the natural log of 3, approximately 1.1

 Regards

-YT

Dear Hamsadeh Ghadimi

Thanks for well rounded, logical and civilized comments I enjoyed them greatly.

At the expense of being labeled a supporter of the numbers in the article there are few points in your comments that I need to bring up to your attention.And at the expense of sounding defensive about my comment, The simplified method I suggested is a norm for ESTIMATING that historical population, and it is not linear for it is a Exponential using natural logarithm calculation.[see rule of 70]

With all due respect you are confusing life expectancy with fertility rate.

Fertility rate is define as Crude fertility rate which is rate of childbirths per 1000 per year.

Total Fertility Rate on the other hand is calculated  is the average number of children born to each woman over the course of her life.

In contrast, some of the factors you have mentioned are applicable in calculation of life expectancy as opposed to fertility rate. For instance, under developed countries have higher fertility rate as compared to developed countries.

Following factors affect the fertility rate which in turn affects the population growth:

• Pro-natalist policies and Antinatalist policies from government
• Existing age-sex structure
• Availability of family planning services
• Social and religious beliefs - especially in relation to contraception and abortion
• Female literacy levels
• Economic prosperity (although in theory when the economy is doing well families can afford
  to have more children in practice the higher the economic prosperity
  the lower the birth rate).
• Poverty levels – Children can be seen as an economic resource in developing countries as they can earn money.
• Infant Mortality Rate – A family may have more children if a country's IMR is high as it is likely some of those children will die.
• Urbanization
• Typical age of marriage
• Pension availability
• Conflict

Now If you notice in one of the links that a gentleman of commentator has provided [//www.populstat.info/Asia/iranc.htm], data contained in that site is a mere crude calculation of application of percentage rate. in my humble opinion, those numbers are not reliable.

I personally am interested to know the source of the actual numbers that are used in the report and so far have not been able to find any source that provides the info.

I would love for Ms. Nosh Afarin to help us with the source of number, although I might add that I am certain that the famine in fact occurred and millions were killed by it. 

Question is HOW MANY people did in fact die??

-YT

جواب اقای دکتر مجد؛ بعد از خواندن این بلاگ:

در اینجا، جای ان دارد که از (اقای دکتر محمد قلی مجد ) بخاطر وطن دوستی شان تشکر کنم. ایشان انقدر برای هموطنانش ارزش قائل هستند که وقت خود را صرف خواندن نظریات این بلاک کردنند.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

 From: Mohammad Gholi Majd
Subject: Re: Fw: با سلام خدمت اقای دکتر مجد؛
To: "XXXXXX" Cc: "*****" < >
Date: Thursday, May 28, 2009, 8:26 AM   

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Ba salaam,
Az lotf va mohabatetan nesbat be karhayam kheili mamnoon, va commentha besyar jaleband.

Avalin gozaresh sefarat America dar Tehran dar mored Jamiat Iran va Tehran be tarikh Mars 1900 mibashad. Jamiat Iran 11 million dar sal 1900 va jamiat Tehran 300,000 gozaresh shodeh. (Vazir Mokhtar, Herbert H. Bowen)

Dovomin gozaresh sefarat America dar Tehran dar mored jamiat Iran va Tehran dar May 1910 mibashad.   Jamiat Iran 13-15 million dar sal 1910 gozaresh shodeh. (Morgan Shuster ham hamin raghamra dar ketabash dadeh).

Ba ehteram,

Mohammad Gholi Majd

Re: Souri

I just noticed you left a comment for me.

I didn't really modified my comment, I only broke it into two separate comments. You are welcome, and I am glad you found some of the info useful.

I long for the day that unbiased and fair Iranian researchers and scholars can be funded to conduct and publish their research in safety and without fear of persecution, and based on facts instead of personal feelings.

There is so much mistrust when we Iranians read most anything written by most anyone, and rightfully so. I think you'd agree with me that our culture has been suffering from the disease of lie, unaccountability and irresponsibility for too long.

I don't know what the solution is.

هموطن گرامی؛ اقای جمشید!

در وحله اول میخواستم از زحمتی که برای بدست اوردن اطلاعات کشیدید، ‌ تشکر  و قدردانی کنم. بنده؛ قصد شایع پراکنی ندارم، ما فقط با خوانندن یک مصاحبه کوتاه، که مابین گزارشگر و پژوهنده ای  برای معرفی کار پژوهشی او  انجام میگیرد،  نمیتوانیم نتیجه گیری کنیم، که ان پژوهشگر، کارش درست یاغلط است !!.اگر  واقعا، این اطمینان خاطر را داریم، باید مداراک خود را به ناشر و ان پژوهشکر  و حتی به منبع اطلاعاتی که: (  سازمانهای دولتی )  هستند، ابلاغ کرد. اگر کارهای« دکتر مجد » برپایه غرایض شخصی است، باید در مقابل او ایستاد و حتی به سازمانهایی که به او در چاپ کتابش کمک کرده اند،اعتراض کرد.   به خاطر دارم که چند سال پیش «گوگل» نام خلیج پارس را «اعرابین گالف» در نقشه‌خود معرفی کرد. ایرانیان از سراسر دنیا به این اشتباه( عمد یا غیرعمد)اعتراض کردنند.
 
 درمورد تارنماییکه زحمت انرا کشیدید :

 ١-  در رابطه با تارنمای (  //www.populstat.info/Asia/iranc.htm  ) باید عرض کنم  که پایه واساس اعتبار و تحقیقی ی کسترده ای ندارد. خود تهیه کننده  ( Jan Lahmeyer ) در قسمتیکه خودرا معرفی میکند، در رابطه با  کارش میگوید: که این کار برای او یک سرگرمیست. ومتاسفانه نمی توان  شواهد دقیق وقایع تاریخی  را در سرگرمی افراد جستجو کرد و بعد انرا ملاک قرار داد. برای مثال: قتل عام ارامنه که در ما بین ماه فوریه و مارس ١٩١٥ اتفاق افتاده را فقط میتوان با سند و شواهد ارزنده ای که در دست سازمانهای دولتی است، بدست اورد. و همینطور  که همه ما میدانیم؛  هر انچه که در تاریخ اتفاق افتاده، در جایی به ثبت رسیده است. اگرطبق قوانین هر کشوری که با (« بر ملا نکردن وقایع » بخاطر هرج و مرج) اجتماعی، برای مدتی ان را  پنهان نگهمیدارند، دلیل بر ان نیست که ان اتفاق نیفتاده است. و اگر زمامدارانی،که سرسپرده بودنند و نمیخواستند ملت چیزی از ان  وقایع بدانند، ان خود،‌  نشانه پایه های سست انها بود.

٢-  اگر واقعا تمایل به سندیت مدارک تاریخی دارید، میتوانید به این تارنما مراجعه کنید.
 (  //thomas.loc.gov/home/r101query.html   ).
٣- شما، متاسفانه نکاتی را که در تمرکز این بلاگ: (قحطی بزرگ و نسل ‌کشی در ایران)است، را  کاملا در  نظر  نگرفته اید.  و از مصاحبه اقای شهبازی که در مورد چندین کارهای« پژوهشی دکتر مجد»  بود، را  نیز امیخته به این بلاگ کردید، که التبه وقیتکه زمان گذاشتن بلاگ (غارت آثار باستاني ايران ‏در دوران رضاشاه) رسید ، به ان هم میپردازیم.
در اخر متذکر شوم که من فقط طرف اطلاعات پژوهشی را میگیرم. که کتابهای اقای دکتر مجد را در بر میگیرد.« اما» به خاطر ارامش خاطر خود و دیگر هموطنان؛ چندین نامه برای کسانی که دست اندرکاران این کتاب بودنند؛ فرستادم. هر وقت جوابی دریافت کردم، انرا به اطلاع شماها میرسانم.

با تشکراز حُسن نیت شما.

ایران احتیاج به شاه الله هان نوکر یا خر خمینی پرستان حزب الله ندارد.
«مرحم زخم  ایران و ایرانیان ازادی است»

Jamshid;

Very well put.  But, both of us agree that we haven't seen the documents and the logic behind it.  I wish I had access to the book and could read it in detail.  They say the devil is in the detail.  What has been put here is just the conclusions and drawing conclusions based upon conclusions is comparison that in many cases are misleading especially when it comes to matters related to politics. 

When it comes to the ruling government of the time, I agree with you that all governemnts have their expenses.  As I said the largest project was the railway and not the only one (however there is a great dispute about the usefulness of that in the way that it was constructed because its solely military purposes that had plenty of consequences. Even the subject has been raised that it was to be constructed from Booshehr to Shiraz to Esfahan to Theran to Qazveen to Rasht and Anzalee which were historically and at the time the main centers of population and production and importance that connected south to north.  This plan the English did not want due to their interests and certain enmity towards people of Bushehr and Dashtestaan), the tax on ghand and chekar was levied on top of other sources of income that the government had.  I personally have seen some documents showing the land taxes that were in place those days and there must be lots of those kinds of documents in existence today.  It was only lately that tax on farming lands were lifted due to more income generated from oil and the fact that agriculture sector was almost totally broke.  Other source of goverment income was the customs.  Many Westerners were hired to reform it as its importance was growing.  Other source was taxes levied upon business.  Government lands (Khaalesehjaat) yeilded incomes.  I don't have these in mind now.  I basically mean that there were many sources of income in Iran besides oil and those two items that I mentioned as examples.       

My main point was about the great famine from the very beginning and that it was a fact of history and many have given some hints about it and this book seems to be the one which has discussed it in detail (perhaps in great detail based upon existing documents).  If there were more documents about the subject available, it would have made more solid agrument.  Of course,famine, wars, deseases, occupation etc. prepare the way for grave political changes.

I even did not go to the figures as I do not dare to defend some figures that I haven't even seen, leave alone carefully examining and comparing them with other documents and reports.    

Besides those people who have reported in this blog that they had heard about the famine from their relative, right now, Jimzbund had put a blog about Ali Dashtee's Beesto Seh Saal with a long introduction by Baharaam Choobeeneh.  It is very interesting (but not new to me) to see that many in Iranian army and some politicians who had lost hope to overcoming the dire circumstances were prepared to support a strong dictatorial central command to create a nation of national unity.  Many had attempted just to do that.  Revolts that were all over the country mainly were in that direction. I recommend that you look at it, not to necessarily accept the author's views but to refresh your memory of your past studies.

Thank you for your patience.

888

888

a brief note :)

it’s amusing to read the back and forth insults of the commentators on this page; however, i rather skip the insults and without taking sides, give my 2 cents on the excerpt on the book and the support that is given to the writer and the book by noosh afarin. 

first of all, the numbers that were presented on the population of iran during different years seem to be easily refuted by available and reliable sources, some which were presented by some of the commentators (jamshid and anonymous-historian) and i’m sure there are many more.  by reliable, i mean that for example, i can use united nations data in an article without raising an eyebrow from my peers. although, one needs to use caution and use multiple sources for data and parameters in a model.  in a peer-reviewed article, one needs to demonstrate transparency such as providing information that would be contradictory to the author’s claims.  in scientific articles, there is typically a “limitation” section discussing shortcomings of the data or methodology.  did the author, majd, discuss these readily available data that contradicted his claim and provide reasons why he discounted them?  because if he didn’t, that would be called cherry-picking the data and it would not pass the ‘scientific’ research standards.  there’s a saying in statistics referring to unscientific research methods: “if the data don’t support your hypothesis, torture them until they confess!” 

one commentator suggested that figuring out population of a country for a given year is not complicated: just start with a reliable source for a specific year and extrapolate back using an assumed fertility rate.  this type of log-linear approach may be as good as a guess.  fertility rate can change dramatically due to environmental and social condition (as we have witnessed in iran in the past 30 years).  in addition, one has to account for death rate (natural and unnatural such as epidemics and various illnesses), infant mortality, improvement of health care, education, migration, industrialization and so forth.  it’s actually quite complicated and involves many contentious assumptions and methodologies.

the writer of the blog claims that majd has proved (sabet kardeh) that the subject famine has been the biggest genocide of 20th century.  if majd has carried out sound scientific principles in his research methods, at best, he can ‘demonstrate’ and not ‘prove’ a conclusion.  let’s leave proofs to the mathematical world.  the writer of the blog also likens the death of iranians to a holocaust; as if the 50 million people who were reportedly killed due to the pandemic flu in 1917 (global figure) could also be qualified to be holocaust victims.  these are just some sensational wordings that raised my skepticism about the book itself. 

i have other concerns regarding the logical connection between the existence of the much distrusted british (that's an understatement) politicians and troops in iran and the conclusion that the book asserts: death of half of iran's population during and after world war 1. but i will be brief as i promised.

Re: Manouchehr Avaznia

Dear Manouchehr, thank you for taking the time and reading my comment.

You wrote, 

"you forgot one great factor... the income they (Iran's leaders) receive from oil... there is this possibility that there were some hidden venues of revenue that places like Turkey lacked."

I agree. I am certain that there were hidden revenues somewhere. But conversely, there were many hidden venues of revenue in Turkey that Iran lacked as well. Not all income is from oil, and not all leaders except Iran's are clean.

"Regardless of accuracy of figures, the great famine is the fact of history."

I aknowledged the famine in my comment and wrote about it. However, the famine had nothing to do with the figures that the author is trying to attach to Reza Shah.

"The largest undertaking under the Reza Khaan was the North-South railroad project"

I don't agree with this. There were many other projects under Reza Shah that were large and cost much money:

Centralizing the government and military. (cost money)

Establishing modern civil institutions and government administrations. (cost money)

Improving health care. (cost lots of money, but Iran's conditions were so bad to begin with that the improvements didn't show until later)

Reforming and establishing a modern educational system. (cost money)

Founding the first large scale factories. (cost money)

Incentives for industrial growth such as low interest loans for small factory owners and financial assistance by the newly formed ministry of industry for plants and equipment. (cost money)

The above increased the number of plants from 20 to 350 in 17 years.

By 1941, the number of "trained" IRANIAN workers in the oil industry reached 21,000. Compare this to the last Ghajar king era. (cost money)

Sending thousands of young and eager Iranians to Europe for higher education at government expense. (cost money)

Hundreds of urbanization projects. (cost money)

Establishing Daneshgahe Tehran and Daneshkadeye Pezeshki and other higher education facilities. (cost money)

Establishing modern communications, mokhaaberaat. (cost money)

I can add more to this long list, but I think you understand the point I am trying to make.

Additionally, all of these were done in an atmosphere of opposition and sabotage by domestic and foreign elements, not to mention the cultural opposition.

I am still at awe and amazed at how backwarded, poor, diseased and lost Iran was at the end of Ghajars. So considering the very little and next to nothing initial resources Reza Shah had to work with, I have no choice but to give him credit for these accomplishments despite some of his negatives, as well as rejecting fabricated claims that he had $250 million in his bank accounts.

Bahraam Choobeeneh;

بهرام چوبینه در صفحات هشت و نه مقدمه ی خود بر کتاب بیست و سه سال علی دشتی که جیمزباند در یک بلاگ تحت نام بیست و سه سال علی دشتی امروزگذاشته است به مسئله ی قحطی بزرگ اشارات روشنی دارد. 

Desparate times needs desparate measures

NooshAfari's cheerleaders, as Jamshid said it rightly, are now resorting to guess work and speculations to dance around their newly found champion. 

Yahya T:

Please keep your guestimations for the classroom discussions and spare us the "Not so complicated" method. Every junior student of statistics knows the huge margin of error in your so called "Not complicated method." 

Mr Avazinia:

Notwithstanding your gibberish regarding the oil money do you address the kings of Qajar or other dynasties by their first name as well? Or have you reserved your blind bias against the Pahlavi kings only. How about these for a laugh:

Nasser Ghajar

Mozaffar Ghajar

Ahmad Ghajar

Fath Ali 

Nader Afshar

Abbas Safavi 

...........

(LOL) 

Boy you are a true comedian.

FR

Jamshid;

Good reasoning.  I think you forgot one great factor about the wealth of the Iranian rulers since late Qajar times.  And it is the income they receive from oil that gives rulers a free hand to pocket large sums.  Considering that in those days the oil was almost exclusively in the English hands and the central government of Iran (however Iranian share was small), there is this possibility that there were some hidden venues of revenue that places like Turkey lacked. 

The largest undertaking under the Reza Khaan was the North-South railroad project that was financed by two rial tax levied on sugar and ghand and did not enjoy that oil money at all. If such a huge project (if you travel along it, you understand what I am talking about) could be accomplished with that much tax and the nation could pay that much tax only on those two items, then the income could have been much higher.  This information was given to the students even at the time of Mohammad Reza. 

These are just my guesses.  I have not read that book and I cannot judge the logic behind it and author's reasoning, however just an author's bias cannot discredit his writings as there is no author in the field of social studies who doesn't have some bias towards his subject. Regardless of accuracy of figures, the great famine is the fact of history. If some of us have never heard it, many have.

Regards