When President Bush assumed office, Iran was not a nuclear power. When his successor takes the oath of office next year, however, Iran will have achieved (or be on the verge of achieving) that status. Nothing the Bush Administration or the international community is doing now is likely to alter Iran's behavior over the coming year. Indeed, so long as the sanctions adopted by the UN Security Council don't directly affect the Iranian economy, Iranian leaders won't have to make a choice between their economic well-being and their nuclear development and will thus proceed on the path to completing the nuclear fuel cycle.
Senators Clinton, McCain, or Obama all know that the current policy is not going to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. So if they are to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran once becoming president -- something all have committed themselves to trying to assure -- they are going to have to change course, and direct engagement with the Iranians will be the likely result. Either Clinton or Obama will likely try negotiations as a primary strategy in order to see if there is a way through incentives and disincentives to stop the Iranian nuclear program. Even McCain knows that there is no way he can employ force to set back the Iranian nuclear program without showing the American public (and the world) that he genuinely tried direct negotiations to resolve the issue first.
In order to launch such negotiations, the next president will need to drop the Bush precondition that Iran must first suspend its uranium enrichment. But since there is a danger that Iran will see this as an admission of defeat in which America will concede everything sooner or later, the next president must succeed in increasing economic pressures at the same time. To do so, and thus prime the ground for negotiations, America must convince its European allies to adjust their policies as well as strategically influence less friendly powers like China and Russia to fall in line.
America's readiness to talk to Iran without conditions provides leverage with those who want it to join the negotiations with the Iranians. In particular, the Europeans have been convinced, rightly or wrongly, that a deal with the Iranians on the nuclear issue is possible, but only if the United States is also at the table. It is the United States, they believe, that can provide what the Iranians most want in terms of full acceptance of the regime, security assurances, and an end to sanctions and calls for economic boycotts. Given this view, the next administration must go quietly to the British, French and Germans and make clear that while it is ready to drop the precondition on Iranian suspension of enrichment, join the talks directly, and put a credible comprehensive proposal on the table, it cannot do so until they agree to ratchet up the pressure on Iran at the same time. Europeans would thus need to agree on EU-wide sanctions that cut off investment in the Iranian oil and natural gas sectors, commerce with Iranian banks, and all credit guarantees to their companies doing business in Iran.
Many Europeans would find this difficult to do, especially given concerns that the Chinese and Russians would simply take their place in Iran. That argues not for relaxing what the next administration asks of the EU, but for also doing parallel preparation with the Chinese, Russians, and Saudis prior to entering negotiations with the Iranians.
The next administration will need to convince the Chinese that as America contemplates direct talks with the Iranians, they must not undercut those negotiations by removing the leverage that could make them succeed. Indeed, if the Chinese want to ensure that force is not the only option left to stop the Iranian nuclear program, they must not undercut the sanctions. The Saudis could be very important in this connection: They don't want to face an Iran that has a nuclear shield behind which it can engage in coercion and subversion, so America should try to convince them to use their enormous financial clout with the Chinese.
The Russians may be reluctant to restrain their relations [with] Iran given their interests in becoming an alternative to the United States in the Middle East and elsewhere. Still, the Russians also have strong financial interests in being a supplier of nuclear reactors and fuel elsewhere in the global market -- and the next U.S. administration could facilitate that objective. Moreover, it also has something to trade with the Russians. While the Bush Administration has made developing and deploying U.S. missile defenses in Poland and the Czech Republic a top priority, the next president could use these potential outposts as a bargaining chip with the Russians. After all, the Bush administration's main argument justifying the deployment of these ballistic missile defenses in Eastern Europe is the threat posed by Iranian missiles armed with nuclear weapons. If that Iranian threat goes away, so does the principal need to deploy these forces. Putin has made this such a symbolic issue that this tradeoff could be portrayed as a great victory for him. To gain the victory, Russia must join real economic sanctions against Iran and its energy sector.
All this suggests that there is leverage that could be used to make negotiations effective. Negotiations with Iran don't exist in a vacuum. Iran must see what it can gain from the talks (civil nuclear power, economic benefits, security assurances, and regional acceptance) but also what it must give up (nuclear weapons, the use of terror and subversion, material support for the Hezbollah and the Hamas militias, and opposition to peace with Israel) in order to get it. If there is no pressure, Iran will read negotiations as acquiescence. Laying extensive groundwork for the almost inevitable negotiations that lay ahead with Iran may not guarantee success, particularly if Iran is determined to have nuclear weapons. But the preparation will give the next American president his or her best chance of stopping Iran's drive towards nuclear armament.
Dennis Ross is counselor and Ziegler distinguished fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and author of Statecraft: And How to Restore America's Standing in the World. First published in New Republic Online.
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Re: Dear Abarmard That
by Anonymousk (not verified) on Wed Mar 26, 2008 11:40 AM PDTRe: Dear Abarmard
That means, we need to open the economical path to Iran and Iranians and let the country blossom to a capitalistic path. The eventual reformists and “secularists” will rise to power based on people’s will. The solution is simpler than you think.
Rhetoric, even suffused with sophistry is still rhetoric and devoid from realties on the ground. What you don't get is that the U.S. is just as "anti-bullies" as the Islamic Republic. The US is just as vindictive for the 444-days of American hostage episode in their history as the Iranians are for the coup of 1953! This might be a revelation for you but Iranian don't have a monopoly on revenge and being unforgiving. Also, America does not respond well to being bullied either...if you haven't figured that out yet after 29 years of not having relationship with Iran and more than that with Cuba, then you are clueless about the core principles of the American foreign policy...
And the “we are so much more nuance than you are” line. We face an ultra religious fanatical theocracy in Iran because Jimmy Carter thought he understood the cultural nuances better than saner people and got himself and the rest of this country screwed.
Your lofty sounding theories about the "free market economy" (supply-side economics or tickle down economics) as the panacea amount to nothing more than empty platitudes to sound "intellectual" and would end up enslaving people even more to the Islamic Fundamentalist theocracy. Examples are abound, in the case of China and Vietnam, and Latin American countries. In fact, Latin American countries had to abandon the "free market economy" solution.
Free market economy (neoliberal) and free trades have not helped bring about secularism, freedom, democracy, economic justice, or prosperity for the massess. They have created more poverty and have exterminated home-grown agriculture and other home-grown industries.
Having said all of these, I still think the U.S. should call the Isalmic Republic's bluff and engage in diplomacy and unconditional talks. This should be done to prove to, once and for all, all the realists and pragmatists in the State Department that the regime is an ideologically driven entity with suicidal long-term dreams of delusional grandeur.
Start the talks already, please.
Mr. Ross: Have you ever read
by Anonymousaq (not verified) on Wed Mar 26, 2008 10:14 AM PDTMr. Ross: Have you ever read Khomeini's book, "The Islamic Government"????
How would you describe the power structure of the Islamic Republic? Do you even have a clue how the IRGC is in charge and not the Supreme Leader??? The Supreme Leader is afraid of the IRGC and Ahamdinejad's gang...As soon as thig military faction gets enough base support among the religious zealots, they will do away with all the mullahs.
The plan is to Chavezitisize the economy when Ahmadinejad becomes the President for the second time...Please try to dig deeper...
Need more info, visit this site more often and check out the archives for articles regarding the Islamic Republic's history. "God wears Boots" come to mind...Also, history of Islamic Fundamentalism and their ongoing atrocities against their own citizens (from 1978 thru. today) in Iran should give you a clue who you're dealing with.
masoudA?
by Abarmard on Wed Mar 26, 2008 09:47 AM PDTI am on your side and against the theocracy rule, he is not. Read everything carefully and clearly. What do you think his true agenda is by what he suggests? Do you think today based on his group of thinkers, IR is stronger or weaker?
Think.
The Neocons' propoganda (for
by Anonymou (not verified) on Wed Mar 26, 2008 09:22 AM PDTThe Neocons' propoganda (for the sake & interests of the ultra-hardliners in, Madagascar, not for America's interests):
"they are praying for some sort of allied intervention".
And as for tactics, make sure no opening of relations ever happens, maintain the status quo and with a subtle and consistent increase in tensions, and of course with more sanctions.
HERE WE GO AGAIN!
by ali1348 (not verified) on Wed Mar 26, 2008 09:22 AM PDTI always find it fascinating to read articles trying to "legitimize" the mullahs' brutal rule in iran!
The problem with Bush's plan was that when the mullahs were shaking in their abaas in 2003-and they sent a letter begging the US not to overthrow them as well- he did not respond forcefully. Bush should have sent a response saying "you have 30 days to hold free and fair elections, otherwise you're next!"
There is no logic in trying to legitimize or "talk" to this regime...it has been illegitimate since 1979
Mr. Ross, the people of Iran pray for a day when they are rid of these vultures- they don't need the west to prolong their suffering!
Clueless Abarmard !!
by masoudA on Wed Mar 26, 2008 08:38 AM PDTAre you for real ?
comparing Iran's situation to Russia when it was attacked by the Nazis ???? People of Iran are praying for a change of government. they are praying for some sort of allied intervention.
And I have news for you - most akhoonds - although they will never admit to it - also pray for an ally intervention to save not Iran but the mullahs and their families from the PLO/Hamas/Hezbollah snakes they have raised themselves.
Dear Mr. Ross - most significant fact to know about the theocracy in Iran is that the mullahs "Bluff" - and will spend whatever it takes to create an image of popular support. While most Iranians outside and inside Iran are busy making ends meet, the mullah's expensive PR gang floods the streets, and the media to create an image of popular support.
I absolutely disagree with you Mr. Ross
by Abarmard on Wed Mar 26, 2008 08:04 AM PDTDear Mr. Ross
In your statement you have mentioned that “, the next president must succeed in increasing economic pressures at the same time”?
What do you perceive the difference is between your genius recommendation and what the world has been trying to do?
Why do you think that an economical pressure will weaken Iran? Let me teach you about the Middle East, especially Iran. Similar to many American politicians and similar to neocons mentality, you have suggested a path that needs to end with a military intervention. Unless you believe that Iran is similar to the Soviet Union, which it’s not. Iran’s oil and natural Gas will get out and the Iranian military funds are the lowest in the region and arguably in the world. The question remains, what do you accomplish with “more of the same” mentality?
Now learn this about Iran:
-Iranian people, similar to the Russians (German Nazi attack during the WWII, refer to Russian Defense), are stubborn enough to withstand the little pressures that you are suggesting in the economical path! The region’s mentality is not similar to you and your family that if the egg or butter is taken from your table, your family will commit suicide or leave the country!
-Iranian government is feeding from your mentality and they are hoping for more pressure and sanctions, because they get their legitimacy from being anti bullies. People will remain faithful and supportive to their regime as long as they feel there are people such as you who want to get them kneel down, so they won’t.
-Although Iranian problem with the regime is beyond economics, we all know that economics does play an important role in people’s lives. You are betting on that route, yet people will easily justify their economical problems towards the west and eventually Israel. It’s a natural path that when people become poor, they move towards fanaticism. You would see more Islamists coming out of Iran while if you do your research you’ll see that they are almost none at this point.
Summary:
The list can go on, but I think you may have gotten the point already. The solution is less of the same and more of the opposite. That means, we need to open the economical path to Iran and Iranians and let the country blossom to a capitalistic path. The eventual reformists and “secularists” will rise to power based on people’s will. The solution is simpler than you think. You are a warmonger in heart and we had enough of your animalistic mentality in our foreign policy. Majority of the Iranian Americans want to empower the Iranians inside the country. If you have recently (or ever) visited Iran, you should know that Iranian economical system is capitalistic in nature. We need to work from Western and American perspective to find a viable solution instead of working for Israeli propaganda machine inside the United States. Then we shall have a true result. I am surprised at a person such as yourself who has a title of “Washington Institute for Near East Policy” and still is confused, blind, and in a dream land that more of the same would work, only if we get the rest of the world to fight Iran economically! Wow, what an amazing thought process!! As we say in Iran, make sure the Chinese don’t steal you for your amazing problem solving skills.
Looking For Warmongers ?
by masoudA on Wed Mar 26, 2008 07:45 AM PDTThis babak character is a perfect example.
50-60 percent of Iranians want Atom Bomb ? where the hell do you live ? just because some sellouts in the Bey area say so ? Do you even live in Iran - do you associate with Iranians ? Is there any Iranian left who believes the mullahs ?
your comments are same as
by babak123 (not verified) on Wed Mar 26, 2008 06:37 AM PDTyour comments are same as the others, you just want show it is diffrent.
accept these facts and try to work with these.
1- iran wnat uclear energy and it got about 80% backing of people, 50-60% wants bomb
2- do noy try to repeat the line, russia does not want nuclear iran, russia always chooses nuclear iran to american friendly iran. iran is like golden gate to russia. whole of central asia will be open to america if iran goes toward america. it is the same for china but not as much.
3- america spending 12 bilion a week in iraq, time is not on american side. all the card is held by iran. by this america can not set the rule. think which one is worse, ineefective sanction or costly wars. who do you think will break first.
I
by Mehran (not verified) on Wed Mar 26, 2008 06:33 AM PDTI can assure you that I am not a neo-con and I am not advocating any military action toward Iran. I am a patriot Iranian just like the rest of you. Having said that, given the mentality and history of the Mullah's regime you do realize that they will do their best to get their hands on the bomb. Don't be fooled for one minute thinking they are ever going to tell you the truth or behave in a rational manner. Nuclear energy could be important to them but not to the point of breaking the back of Iranian economy. You should then ask yourself why the have this reckless insistence.
Dear Mr. Ross !!
by masoudA on Wed Mar 26, 2008 06:30 AM PDTDialogue is great - but only when there is a chance for a mutual agreement both sides can honor. There is not a single Person or Group in Iran today who can make a concession on behalf of Islamic Republic and honor it. If you disagree with that then you have no clue about the core of IRI's "molook ol tavayefi" - meaning each entity in IRI is/has a seperate king - which may or may not listen to others - depending their power-base at the time.
Wake up and smell the shit Mullahs are stuck in!
by Wishful thinker (not verified) on Wed Mar 26, 2008 05:14 AM PDTIn spite of all your rantings in favor of Iran's mullahs EVENTUALLY possessing a bomb, REST ASSURED Israel (not America) will never ever sit still to let an enormously hostile country such as Iran under the leadership of Ali khameneii ever possess the bomb and please for God's sake, do not UNDERESTIMATE Israelis and their resolve!!
Now go on and call me anything you want BUT for crying outloud, WAKE UP FOR ONCE and smell the shit that Mullahs are stuck in and have no way out.
To: Mehran - Obviously we have some Ahmad Chalabi's here!
by Anonymous-2 (not verified) on Wed Mar 26, 2008 12:49 AM PDTYou must be one of those typical Iranian opposition groups, who is just waiting for the U.S. and Israel to bomb Iran. We have seen your kind before - the Ahmad Chalabis..
There is absolutely not one iota of proof that Iran ever had a nuclear weapons program; all of the IAEA reports attest to this.
Iran has every right to nuclear enrichment, it is it's absolute sovereign right as a member of the NPT.
Their is no smoking gun unless those in the U.S. Gov. want to create one for her. We have gone through this before, and one must be an idiot not to see how the White House, the Pentagon, the CIA, and the neocons created fabricated reports and disseminated false information on Iraq to give us "Shock and Awe".
I am sure Mr. Ross is fully aware of this!
The destruction of Iraq, the death of over 1 million Iraqi civilians, 4,000 American soldiers, 4 million Iraqis who are displaced are proof of the "evil minds" of those who corroborated in the catastrophe that we are evidencing today in Iraq.
nonesense Mehran, energy is important for Iran
by Q on Wed Mar 26, 2008 12:34 AM PDTnuclear energy is a very legitimate pursuit that Iran has been making for decades. Even Americans agreed that Iran can benefit from it during Shah's regime.
Iran has significant deposits of Uranium. Like oil, the western nations want to monopolize access to production of this source of energy too. Basically mine it out of Iran for cheap and sell it back as fuel and make lots of money.
Who the hell is America to tell Iran not use its own resources?
Let's not deny the truth
by Mehran (not verified) on Tue Mar 25, 2008 11:45 PM PDTWe all know that the Mullah's are after the bomb and they do their very best to get it. I do not believe for one second that the propose of the peaceful nuclear energy is a real one and it is just a smoke screen.
Dennis Ross
by Ardeshir1 (not verified) on Tue Mar 25, 2008 11:07 PM PDTThe mere idea that Iran will give up on this critically needed strategic advantage (i.e. nuclear weapons capability) because we can now talk nice to them is misguided. Any reasonable student of international relations can understand Iran's need for deterrence in an unsafe neighborhood made less safe recently by the American base building war in Iraq.
We need to come to terms with a new strategic dynamic occurring in Asia from China to Iran there is a shift in the power equation. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is gradually bonding (Iran may join soon), leading to possible military and economic alliances in the East to counter western hegemony in the area and beyond. Mr. Dennis Ross's thinking unfortunately takes cues from a world view based on status quo ante holding indefinitely. This is fantasy thinking at best and dangerous at worst. We need to put ourselves a bit in Iranian shoes then maybe we have a chance to talk and reach reasonable solutions. Not lecture the other side around the negotiation table.
Mr Ross's theory is same as the rest of neo-cons
by iraj khan on Wed Mar 26, 2008 08:30 AM PDTHere is his solution:
"First turn the whole world's community against Iran, then attack Iran".
If you ask him Why? He'll answer "Because Iranians will not change their mind and want to make the A-bomb".
His thesis is based on "Iran wants to build the bomb".
How does he know? How about the US government report that indicated Iran has stopped that activity?
We are living in dark ages here in United States.
Zionist set the US foreign policy. All the jews in the US political structure are for the destruction of Iran. A racist short sighted policy.
And Mr Ross's so called solution is no different.
Have they forgotten what has happened in Afghanistan and Iraq?
The Islamic regime in Iran
by Anonymousnnn (not verified) on Tue Mar 25, 2008 09:20 PM PDTThe Islamic regime in Iran is an illegitimate regime; it is tyrannical; it violates human rights; and it sponsors terrorism. You don't negotiate with such regimes. After all the West's qualms with this regime is not about economic issues or territorial matters or such like! It is about the very issues of democracy, freedom and human rights and above all, their sponsorship of terrorism that threatens the West’s democracy and civilisations.
Firstly, there is a terrorist element in the Islamic regime. This dreadful element will continue to operate even when not in the government. It has its own power base in the revolutionary guards and the Basijis, which are formed by ill-educated simple Iranians who are easily brainwashed by the terrorists loyal to Khomeini and Khamenei. This is where the support for the Hezbullah, Qods and other terrorist organisations comes from. The leaders of these forces have carte blanche power to act independently of all state institutions except the leadership. The terrorist element of the regime at the moment is under direct leadership of Khamenei but will not relinquish by his death.Khamenei is only a flag bearer. He follows the guidelines that Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic left behind and the next leader will have to do the same. It is incorrect to believe that the next leader might divert from some Khomeini’s principles and guidelines. The guidelines are pretty much in place and straight forward. There are still many of Khomeini’s followers still alive and loyal to him. As for how important Khomeini is to the regime just take a trip to his shrine near the Behesht Zahrah cemetery, south of Tehran.
There is no realistic hope of a reformist spiritual leader until all the Khomeini loyalists have vanished and the gradual softening of his policies has taken place.
//ardeshird.blogspot.com/2006_11_01_archive.h...
To negotiate or not
by Anonymousaa (not verified) on Tue Mar 25, 2008 09:09 PM PDTTo negotiate or not negotiate:
//ardeshird.blogspot.com/2007/02/dont-negotia...
The Way to talk to Iran is the same way you speak with Israel!
by Anonymous-2 (not verified) on Tue Mar 25, 2008 06:05 PM PDTI don’t know why we should listen to you Mr. Ross; we all know that you are a staunch Zionist, with a one world view in favor of the State of Israel.
It is a matter of logic that the complex problems of the Middle East can only be solved by just and even handed diplomacy. This is foreign policy 101.
Simply put, the U.S. has to put aside its arrogant, bullying, double standard gun boat diplomacy.
What is needed is the art of statesmanship, not the art of war and illegal sanctions in the Iran Conflict, the Iraq Conflict and the Palestine Conflict.
It is simply not true that in the Iran conflict there is, apart from the strategy of imposing ever tougher illegal sanctions (another form of warfare), only the “catastrophic” alternative of bombing Iran.
The real alternative to the ostracism and demonization of a great nation Iran is its reintegration into the community of nations with the same rights and obligations as any other member.
What is good for Israel should be good for every country in the region!!
The objective must be a world order that all states can accept as just, a world in which decommissions the West’s weapons of mass destruction and shut down its lie machines. A world in which the U.S.A. is once again a symbol of peace and freedom, rather than of war and repression.
Dennis Ross is a reasonable and educated man.
by K Nassery on Tue Mar 25, 2008 05:40 PM PDTI've read his books and watch him being interviewed on television. He actually has visited many countries in the region and has access to fact that our media does not give us.
I'm impressed that he would come to this web site and create a blog. Hopefully, people will consider his words.
No. Dennis is self declared peace seeker
by Mehdi Mazloom (not verified) on Tue Mar 25, 2008 04:47 PM PDTBijan,
I have no idea where the world do you get the idea that Dennis Ross was yet another one of those blind supporters of Likud. He never hidden his relgion as Jew. And he was invited by both Israel and PLO to mediate between the parties. Arafat could have opted for another mediator. He did not.
I have met Dennis personally, listened to his account midiating between Arafat and israel for more then 12 years. And read his 800 page book "The Missing Peace".
If people do not comply to the wish of your Islamist (Iranians regime being on top of the pyramid), my good man, it does not mean they are "dishonest brokers of peace".
Israel & US gave the late Arafat 97% of the territories of pre-1967 borders to estblish his country. remove majority of Israeli settlements inside WB & Gaza. Clinton offered $30B aid to help solve the refugee problem. Arafat wanted it all. Right of Return, Jerusalem. Obviosly he did not get.
Nothing will make Dennis, the Americans, and the Israeli more happy, then have stability and peace in ME. For simple reason, peace and open borders have always served the interest of democracy and progress. It is war, and those, like the Mullahs in Tehran, who support wars and subversion of peace, who bring backwardness and war.
A self declared Zionist
by Bijan Mashayekhi (not verified) on Tue Mar 25, 2008 03:04 PM PDTPlease don't expect unbiased opinion from this ardent and zealous supporter of Likud in Israel! He was the dishonest broker in the doomed Middle East peace process during the Clinton Administration.
Bijan