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Where it hurts
16-Jul-2008
Since 1979, the US has maintained a trade restriction on the IRI. Since the revelation of IRI's nuclear ambition in 2002, at the initiation of the group of six, the United Nations Security Council imposed three rounds of economic sanctions on Iran. None of these measures convinced the regime to turn its back to its nuclear ambitions.
The relatively harsher third set of sanctions started by the EU's recent freezing of the assets of Iran's Bank Melli and imposing travel prohibitions on some IRI's seniors, scientists and military officials.
Bank Melli Iran, which is fully owned by the state, is the country's largest commercial bank, with about 45,000 employees and 3,000 branches worldwide, and total assets of €38 billion ($59 billion). Its branches in Russia and in the United Arab Emirates continue to process transactions, including, as is rumoured, those originating in Europe.
The pressure exerted by the US had a little effect in recent years. In 2007, German exports to Iran declined to only $5.0 billion--from €3.35 billion to $3.23 billion. The IRI has already turned to trading partners in Russia and China and other Asian countries, which have no qualms about taking over IRI's nuclear ambitions. According to data supplied by Germany's Federal Office for Foreign Trade, China has almost doubled its trade volume with Iran since 2005, from $10 billion (€6.5 billion) to $18.5 billion (€11.9 billion).
Pakistan and India have also expanded their economic relations with the regime, and trade with the Arab nations across the Persian Gulf has much increased. Furthermore, many countries in Asia and Europe, but also the United States, have managed to get around the sanctions by working with middlemen and companies close to the IRI, mostly in the Persian Gulf region. It seems that such sanctions do not put an end to business dealings with the IRI and the new sanctions do not seem to convince the IRI to abandon its nuclear ambitions.
On the other hand, the EU may look for compromises with the IRI to maintain their bilateral economic relations. We know that despite constant IRI's catastrophic records of Human Rights since the Iranian revolution, the EU's share of Iran's total imports is over 40%. EU trade with Iran has even expanded since Iran's secret nuclear programme was exposed. IRI's sponsored terrorism and nuclear programme have been ignored a long time by the EU while partly helped by Russia.
The fact is that Mullahs continue to ignore sanctions with little consequence for the regime even though Iran's economy is stagnating. Consumer prices are raising rapidly, unemployment approaches 30 percent and Ahmadinejad has not redistributed oil profits to the poor as promised, but the regime continues to invest in terrorism, nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.
Following the first US war against Iraq in 1991, the United Nations imposed sanctions on the country for 13 years, and yet Saddam refused to yield. The sanctions did not significantly weaken Saddam, but brought about more poverty, medical deficiency and infantile deaths in the population. Such sanctions can have the same impacts on Iranian civil population. Sanctions on the basic needs like foods or medicines very likely favour an oasis for the State Mafia to grow, as it was the case during the Iran-Iraq War.
Recently, 100 Israeli planes flew 1,400 kilometres out over the Mediterranean as part of a military manoeuvre. In the flight, they covered exactly the same distance they would have to cover in an attack on the Iranian uranium enrichment plant in Natanz. In response, the IRI test-fired missiles whose range puts Israel within reach. An eventual air strike on Iran will considerably damage the Iranian national infrastructures and will slaughter many innocents, while the regime very likely manages to survive.
The IRI has dispersed its nuclear plants and facilities all over the country and among the civil population to use civil people as human shields against any air strike. Therefore, any so-called surgical air strike launched by Israel or the US will certainly kill thousands of innocent people. Both military intervention and blind economic sanctions will damage people and the national infrastructures rather than the regime's interests. The IRI does not care to pay a high price for its refusal to stop enriching uranium and negotiate and will continue to claim its "reactors are purely for civilian purposes."
But what is the alternative? Will international sanctions produce the desired effect? Is there any chance to solve the dilemma with the IRI? Can the group of six results in a breakthrough? Is a military intervention a right solution? The answer to all of them remains negative. As long as the UN does not directly punish the plague of IRI, not people who already suffer from this totalitarian regime, a real solution is not available.
The UN can consider various sanctions on the IRI:
--to ensure the end of unacceptable apathy for the crimes committed by the IRI, those UN resolutions can be issued that clearly highlight IRI's human right violations in the last 29 years.
--the UN's highest court, which has once cleared a number of Serbian authorities of direct responsibility for genocide in the 1990s Bosnian war, is now expected to clear many IRI's crimes, especially the genocide of political prisoners in the summer of 1988 with the same principles that the Nuremburg Court applied to Nazi genocide criminals.
--the UN can demand the UN members to freeze all assets of IRI's seniors and their related institutions, foundations, Islamic centres, economic organisations, media, and lobby groups in the world.
--the UN should rule out any military or economic sanctions on Iran. Blind economic sanctions or an eventual military attack on Iran serve mainly the agenda of IRI's hardliners. In this perspective, apart from military goods and industry and eventually oil, trade of other goods with Iran must not be suspended.
In fact, all of these above regimes sanctions produce significant psychological effect to encourage and justify fair struggles of the oppressed people of Iran against the totalitarian IRI.
The UN may also regard oil embargo on the IRI:
--oil embargo, instead of military or economic sanctions, can be an effective alternative. It prevents the regime to reinforce all its repressive forces and organs to further repress Iranian people and jeopardise the international peace.
--IRI's export of crude oil or import of refined oil from India pass through the Strait of Hurmoz, where a UN mandated marine force can stop the transport.
According to Iran's Oil Ministry, the country needs to import up to 15 million litres of gasoline a day for domestic consume. Before rationing was imposed, the domestic consume was estimated 75 million litres a day of gasoline, of which about 36 million was imported. In the case of only gasoline embargo, Iran's consummation can be hardly affected.
IRI's revenue of oil is 70%. A great proportion of this national revenue is not invested to improve the cause of people. Oil in the hands of Mullahs fuels corruption and repression rather than boosts development for people. In short, oil income does not play an important role to people's daily life; in fact, both rate of inflation and unemployment increases while line of poverty permanently sinks. By contrast, Islamic foundations and institutions mushrooms quickly with oil income, oil is mainly a high resource of financing the repressive hundreds of thousands of pasdars, Basijis, masked hooligans, bearded or veiled militias, thugs of "Morality Police … Plus IRI's financing measures for international Islamist terrorism.
Although, Iran is the world's fourth-largest crude oil exporter, it lacks refining capacity to meet all domestic demand for gasoline. Backward Mullahs are not to refine oil therefore rationing was introduced in an effort to curb consumption and cut the rising cost of importing fuel. India imports Iranian crude oil and after refining it exports it to Iran.
The idea of oil embargo, as a weapon of struggle against the tyranny, can be regarded effective. Without oil income, the regime can collapse. The strike of Iranian National Oil Company was a main factor of Shah's collapse; it can also topple the IRI.
Sales of oil for arms in the hands of Basijis, Pasdars, or Hezbollahs in Lebanon to safeguard the savage IRI only serve the agenda of Mullahs. Mullahs do not care about the extraction and abuse of Iranian national wealth. They raise the production of oil to fulfil their agenda. Through oil embargo, unexploited oil will remain an intact source for a free Iran after the fall of the totalitarian IRI. It will help the country to repair the damage done by this regime and will guarantee prosperity and development of the national economy after the Mullahs' regime.
We know that interconnected global economies vitally depend on oil. The industrialised world is the main consumers of fuel. Despite the deep economical interconnections, they are not always in harmony. The EU because of its intensive trade with Iran is rather opposed to such an oil embargo on the IRI. The EU remained cooperative with Iran after the Iranian revolution. IRI's sponsored terrorism, and nuclear programme, did not seem to play an important role for the EU. EU's share of Iran's total imports has now increased to 45%. EU trade with Iran has even expanded since Iran's secret nuclear programme was exposed. The EU imports 40% Iran's oil-the rest goes to Japan, China and other Asian countries.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), to which Iran belongs, can raise output by 3,000,000 barrels per day; oil embargo on the IRI can not be a factor that the whole world economy goes into recession.
Mullahs know the risk of an oil embargo; they try to abuse the relatively expensive oil price, to export as much as they can, even below the market price. They have ordered last year oil tankers from South Korea to increase their transport fleet and consequently oil transportation capacity to 11 million tons by 2010.
Roughly 20% of oil revenues go directly to the pocket of the people in the form of payment for subsidies or employees of the governmental organisations (about 3 million). Oil is the lowest income of these people under the smashing inflation. The mullahs are the real brokers of oil. Oil is a mafia wealth of corrupt Rafsanjani-clan and his likes. They can fuel any propaganda machine to abate the tension felt at home and mask any real cause for which people suffer from. So, oil income goes on the account of repressive organs, propaganda machine, and terrorist organisations in the world.
The IRI is precarious, unpopular mullahs hold onto power by all means of repression. If the oil revenue were suddenly to drop, the repressive regime would lose its steady income and would have serious problems to invest its repressive machine to repress domestic population and finance international terrorism.
If oil sanction, as a new weapon of sanction, is imposed as a result of IRI's nuclear row with the West, and it can render the IRI more vulnerable, it is also at the same time a lack of resource in the hand of the Mullahs to finance their repressive organs and a fair occasion for Iranian people to challenge the plague of the IRI, some Iranian analysts believe.
The IRI cannot be reduced to a simple dictatorial system. It is an extremely brutal totalitarian system, emulated from the archaic models of a clan society of Arab pagans. IRI's criminal records go beyond of any standard of today's imagination, i.e., with one Khomeini's fatwa, several thousands political prisoners, some of them minors, were killed in summer 88.
Since the inception of the regime, hundreds of thousands of Iranians have been jailed, tortured, strained to repent, or summarily executed. Millions of Iranians have been forced to leave the country looking asylum in the West.
The brutal face of Mullahs' regime is camouflaged by the censured of state run media. Furthermore, in the light of any Göbbels-like propaganda system of totalitarian regimes, a crowd of sold intellectuals, paid journalists and Islamic media-networks do the job to create an international apathy towards the depth of Iranian people's plight.
The best reason to impose an oil embargo on the regime is the lack of any other realistic alternative from the UN. Even as the collateral damage from such trade embargo can be immense, including harming those countries that impose it, the other choice is economic sanctions, if not war.
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Mehdi, all the misguided and
by Farhad Kashani on Thu Jul 17, 2008 02:23 PM PDTMehdi, all the misguided and confused leftists, with their IRI apologists and supporter allies, who destroyed our country. have come together to show how truth can be killed!
Maryam, asdf, samasam111,
by Farhad Kashani on Thu Jul 17, 2008 02:20 PM PDTMaryam, asdf, samasam111, jamshid, great postings guys.
Mr. Rashidian, great article
by Farhad Kashani on Thu Jul 17, 2008 02:18 PM PDTMr. Rashidian, great article as always. Khasteh nabasheed.
ZioNazis and the MEK coallition - what a marriage!
by Mehdi on Thu Jul 17, 2008 02:15 PM PDTThe worst skum of the Earth are coming together and providing "solutions" for the Iranian people - or is it "Final Solution?" Just look at how the usual ZioNazis love Rashidian's murderous proposal, and figure it ou for yourself.
Mr Varjavand, You talk like a brainwashed Goat!
by mozakhrafat varjeh vourjeh watcher (not verified) on Thu Jul 17, 2008 01:58 PM PDTyour quote;
""You claimed that Iranian government spent oil revenue on terrorism. Don’t you think there are already enough accusations and by US and its allies against our country""
Paas in poolhaikeh lebenon ro sakht az too kooneh amashoon oomadeh?
and you are a teacher? which school? school of Imbeciles?
For an small man you surely say big lies & Bull$hi+s..don,t you?
I advise you be fair even while arguing a subject , you can not ignore or down play the facts..
Re: varjavand
by jamshid on Thu Jul 17, 2008 01:45 PM PDTFirst off, let me tell you again that your choice of "varjavand" for your id does not fool anyone.
Now on to the main topic. I read your reply to Rashidian. There is no surpirse to me at all that as as an avid (closet) supporter of the IRI, you can manufacture your own convenient numbers. Unemployment is 11%? Who do you want to fool? Those who haven't been Iran lately? Sure. But what about those who do visit Iran frequently?
You wrote, "High unemployment rate in Less Developed Countries is not unusual..."
Another apology on behalf of IRI? How come during the previous regime, the unemployment was near zero?
You wrote, "high inflation is a global phenomenon..."
Again, you find it necessary to apologize on behalf of the IRI. Yes, inflation is an omni present thing everywhere. But in Iran it has reached ridiculous levels. However, you and your ilk are too comfortable to notice it.
Your beloved IRI is so incompetent that it has to import its gas from foreign countries. Why don't you talk some numbers in that area? Your need to defend your ATM machine is all obvious to us.
...
by jamshid on Thu Jul 17, 2008 02:35 PM PDT...
Re: Here we go again, Your (to: Varjavand)
by Malekeh_ on Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:18 PM PDTDon't take this JR fellow too seriously. He is a dischanted former member of MKO who now has started his own clan in Germany driniking beer.
regards.
OIL Prices have rendred USA vulnerable
by Malekeh_ on Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:15 PM PDTOtherwise the BIG IDIOT would not be sending third highest ranking political officer in US government to Europe to talk to mullahs.
Tremendous and exceptionally informative!
by asdf (not verified) on Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:06 PM PDTDear JR: The 'grand bargain' has already been reached and there will be no embargo or sanctions.
The mullahs and their cronies, and the oil companies in the US (realists) win and the Iranian people lose. However, this artificial "peace" will not last.
"A capitalist will sell you the rope to hang himself", said Marx (or was it Lenin)...
You are Right on Target!
by Maryam Hojjat on Thu Jul 17, 2008 10:31 AM PDTJR,
I agree with your analysis and you are right on target. This is the only way to topple IRI and free IRAN. IRI can not survives without oil money. Iranians have been suuffering in past 30 years and they can take this too, but IRI can not!
Payande IRAN
Here we go again, Your
by varjavand on Thu Jul 17, 2008 10:01 AM PDTHere we go again, Your analyses, once again, are shallow, your opinions are skewed, and your prescription that the UN, US, or any other external forces to impose oil embargo on your country and force millions of people to live under unbearable hardships simply because you don’t like IRI is utterly absurd. Your solution is like Khaleh Kherseh solution. If this is not treason what is?
Anytime you come this site with another episode of your skewed writings, you waste lost of valuable time of those people, who are obligated to facts to clear things up and to clean up the debris you spread. Your last article was full of grammatical errors that I duly indicated to you in my comments. The English is better this time; however, your logic is still flawed. You mentioned that unemployment rate in Iran is 30%, where did you get this figure? According to most of the sources I checked the official rate of U in Iran is between 11 to 12%. High unemployment rate in Less Developed Countries is not unusual mostly because people who are considered unemployed may decide to remain unemployed voluntarily or cannot find suitable jobs for frictional reasons totally unrelated to government.
You claimed that Iranian government spent oil revenue on terrorism. Don’t you think there are already enough accusations and by US and its allies against our country? We don’t need another unsubstantiated claim by you, as an Iranian. Don’t you think that if your claim was true, it would have been all over the US mass communication media on 24/7 basis. US explored every possible avenues to prove this allegation unsuccessfully. Don’t you think that high inflation is a global phenomenon at this time due to reasons that everyone is aware of, oil and commodities prices. Inflation in US, the figure was just released two days ago was 1.1 for the month of June, that is 13.2% per year The cost of energy increased by 24.7%, food 5.3%, transportation 12% according to government own figures.
Your assertion that OPEC spare capacity can make up the difference and oil embargo cannot be a factor is utterly wrong. There are evidences that the spare capacity of OPEC countries has been reduced to a very low level in recent years. Without adequate excess capacity that can serves as a balancing factor, your prescribed oil embargo would lead to further price volatility and disruption for global economy. Saudi Arabia, used to maintain a huge excess capacity that allowed this country to regulate the abrupt fluctuations in world supply thus price if deemed desirable. Even this countries has not been willing or able to use its excess capacity to accommodate ever increasing global demand for crude oil.
Generally speaking, the decline in revenue from crude oil results in detrimental effects for the Iranian economy. Developmental expenses such as purchases of capital goods, building a hospital, construction of highways, air ports, bridges, etc. are financed totally by oil revenues. Nearly 80% of Iran’s exports income comes from oil and almost half of its fiscal revenues according to the Energy Information Administration statistics. Oil exports generate as much as $50 billion per year in total for Iran and want. you want us to believe that oil embargo does not have any dramatic effect on Iranian people? Because of inadequate tax collection system in Iran and other developing countries, the tax revenues is not sufficient to finance the entire public expenditures. The statistical results of some recent researches have revealed that a 1% decrease in oil revenue causes a proportional decline in government current expenditure. In case that projected oil revenues do not materialize, government has no choice but to cut such expenditures in line with attainable revenues. Otherwise, operate on deficit. With deficit spending, government is forced to borrow from central bank by resorting to printing more money. Such a policy is considered extremely inflationary.
When it comes to developmental expenditures the effect of oil revenue is stronger. A 1% decline in oil revenue forces such expenditures to drop by almost 1.20% hampering the ability of government to invest in long term projects especially on the countries infrastructures. The more than proportional effect can be due to the fact that such projects are not divisible and some of them may be totally abandoned or down sized as a result of insufficient revenues. Such unwelcome choices may lead to slower economic growth and increase in unemployment rate that you are so concerned with
Mullahs are here to stay for years and years to come!
by Anonymous123 (not verified) on Thu Jul 17, 2008 09:21 AM PDTIt took Communism 72 f---ing years to finally collapse even though it is still very painful and hard to digest/accept for some of the posters here to admit that it did!
Islamic fundamentalism and the travesty that exists in Iran as its beacon will take centuries to get rid of.
The U.S. and Mullahs will reach a compromise (it has already started) and eventually nobody could care less about human rights violations and/or brutal repressive nature of the regime in Iran. Nobody in America cares about those issues when it comes to Saudi Arabia, Egypt and many other repressive and dictatorial regimes which have friendly relations with the U.S.
The Shah's case was different. It was a different era and the world has changed tremendously since then, besides the Shah, monster or angel, had lost the will to rule because of his terminal illness, that's why he gave up so easily, these mullahs will fight tooth and nail and quite mercilessly to hold onto what they got in 1979.
GET ON WITH YOUR LIVES and don't waste you time with hallucinations and wishful thinking ...
As long as there are sanctions
by Abarmard on Thu Jul 17, 2008 08:01 AM PDTSay goodbye to any real and dangerous uprising against the system. We should know by now what the IR enjoys and what makes them weak!
Disgusting and Sad
by Anonymous46 (not verified) on Thu Jul 17, 2008 07:53 AM PDTAfter what happened in Iraq, how anyone can propose even more harsh sanctions is beyond me. What the author is proposing is just as murderous as calling for outright war, which is essentially what he is calling for anyway.
My only hope is that the majority of straight-thinking readers of this site will see this oil embargo scheme for what it is: a plan to slowly strangle the PEOPLE of Iran, before finishing them off with bombs the way they did to Iraq.
Mr. Rashidian,
by Killjoy (not verified) on Thu Jul 17, 2008 07:22 AM PDTIt is nice to read yet one more of your very informative and well-argued articles.
The enemies of Iran, IRI's apologists and supporters try hard to belittle the effects of the sanctions on the regime by shedding crocdile tears for the tens of millions of poverty-stricken Iranians whose destitude should be blamed solely on the current regime.
As a result of being negleted by the IRI and having lived in abject poverty for decades, millions of poor Iranians have become desensitized to the pains of financial hardships. It is the ruling clique and the upper classes which will hurt most and not the poor.
Oil embargo will not help a nation who is not ready to rise up..
by Luciferous (not verified) on Thu Jul 17, 2008 06:51 AM PDTOil embargo will not help a nation who is not ready to rise up. even worse is the fact that the american nation allready must pay doble and third time more for the prices, what any Irano-American will confirm. so there exist no acceptable solution for that nation to rise up and throw the imperialism and imperialists out of their country as the honorable Iranian Nation did 1978/79 and is stil busy with the job.
Where it hurts
by faribors maleknasri M.D. (not verified) on Thu Jul 17, 2008 06:41 AM PDTOil embargo can render the IRI more vulnerable?
I think with a little more neutrality by analysing the different reports one sees at once that in case of an attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran the street of hormoz gets closed. And that without any special activity through - their repblic defending honorable - Iranians. The percentage of world`s need on oil which streams through the street ceases to zero. can it be that this fact is the reason why:
آمريکايي هاي وحشت زده در حال خروج سرمايه هاي خود از بانکها هستند
??? Every radio station every news paper and every TV station is reproting continuously about this fact. Has any body an answer?
Second question: How many Iranians take their money away from Banks? If the answer is NONE then it implies: The honorable Iranians are not frightend. Which means consequently: They are ready, the barking and grunting devils can come.
But they will not come.
They do not posess the fundamental tools for an attack on ther Islamic Republic of Iran. Those are ideologically prepared and personally motivated to perform a defending war 7ty million powerfull nation, which is best weapponed. Greeting
It will not happen
by Alborzi (not verified) on Thu Jul 17, 2008 06:37 AM PDTIts an absurd resolution. And that is what it is a resolution, a costly deed which will remove significant amount of oil from market and it might lead to unspecific retaliations. Hard to believe , I never thought anything will be worst, but actually this would be worst, essentially, it will be an illegal act of war and leave Iran and its allies to retaliate.
Oil embargo will not help a nation who is not ready to rise up..
by samsam1111 on Thu Jul 17, 2008 05:50 AM PDTdear Jahanshah!
Timing is the essence..oil Embargo is a ""last weapon & resort for the nation" and if artificialy injected on a nation who is not ready to rise up against the regime , will mostly hurt th folks..in 1979 people rose up and welcomed oil strike..but oil embargo now without people ready to challenge the regime is a total waste of a good weapon of last resort for the nation and premature . so using it and failing will pump up the regime more..it,s like a lot of "shock and awe" without any serious folow up .
ofcourse when and if the people rise up and need help from global community then oil embargo is a strong weapon in the hands of the nation and very timely.
Kind Regards!
Don't forget idling Iraq.....
by KavehV (not verified) on Thu Jul 17, 2008 01:52 AM PDTBeing pressed for time, I just want to make one point. Otherwise, there are several interesting points that, unfortunately, I will not have time to get to.
OPEC, indeed, does have excess capacity to compensate for eventual IRI oil embargo; Iraq!
Iraq's production capacity has been severely curtailed, or has been nonexistent for almost 2 decades. As stability, along with oil production, comes back to Iraq, the idea of oil embargo against IRI can be contemplated (Iraq's much larger reserves and production can quickly surpass Iran).
BUT, since OPEC accounts for only about 40% of world production, getting the cooperation of major non OPEC producers, especially Russia is important. Supposedly, Russian curtailment of oil production, in sympathy with IRI, can still be used as a threat against an oil embargo on IRI.
Second best option for Iran
by Salar (not verified) on Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:52 AM PDT1. We have pretty much established that from our own experience in the past 20 years and others that reforms from within for mullah regime has failed and won’t work no matter what. There is not path of reform from velayat to democracy.
2. International and economic sanctions as the way they exist are ineffective and hurt the people much more than the mullah government.
These two were obviously the first best option but since they are ineffective, the second best option must be implemented.
1. Remove economic sanctions as they are and put new international sanctions that specifically target IRI high officials, their collaborators and their immediate families, travels and assets abroad. There are plenty to start with right in Canada, Europe, Australia and even US. For example, when Said Mortazavi (dadsetan enghelab Tehran) goes to Switzerland and attends a UN human right conference, which is an absolute mockery of human rights and everything it stands for, he must be arrested right on the spot, not to wait and procrastinate so he can easily getaway. There are many like him roaming around.
2. Empower people of Iran and give them hope and motivation. Look at dovom khordad and those 20+ million people who came out of nowhere back then. This goes against the idea that people show apathy and are inactive in Iran but if they are given a glimpse of hope they will spring into action by tens of millions. Therefore the apathy currently shown by people in iran is very misleading and most of it is due to failure of the reforms, lack of cohesive and emphatic actions by foreign powers (many still appease with the regime) and the feeling that they were fooled by sweet talks and promises of reformers that never happened and only resulted in prolonging the life of the regime. When talking about dovom khordad I don’t mean hope must come from within and the mullah regime. No, quite the contrary, I mean the only way to give hope to people and show Iranians that time of appeasement and dealing with this regime is over is to show the right actions by foreign powers. So along with new targeted sanctions, they must cut off the oppressing arm of mullah regime, sepah and basij. And these two brutal forces cannot be cut off except by emphatic force that can only be done by foreign powers because unarmed people cannot confront the sheer brutality and violence exerted by these killer machines. Action speaks more than billions of words and threats. Once these two implemented then you see how all those millions of Iranians seem inactive and indifferent come to streets to finish the IRI savage beast in a heartbeat. The regime with its killer arm weakened and damaged and nowhere to go or turn will collapse within a week by the very people currently bending under the heavy oppression and brutality of the regime. It is time to move to the second best option to remove this barbaric regime once and for all.
Foreign powers and most certainly US has many options at their disposal to weaken and topple this regime since they know 90% of people are totally against this regime and will bring it down quickly if given the chance. The problem is that foreign powers seem not decided to do that yet. Certain elements in their politic have realized that even though IRI as an investment can have high profit returns close to maximum possible and it has for them in the past 30 years but just like any high profit investment it comes with tremendous risk. One day this savage animal could turn around and bite off the hands that keep it on the leash. But it seems most still believe that they can continue with “brejinski” and british policy to keep this anti-humanity beast around for maximum profit but still contain it and keep it on a shorter leash.
And to those who just say: you fool, if they remove this regime they only do it for their own interest. Well, duuuuh, yeaaaaaaaah!! When are we going to learn that when it comes to world political affairs, there are no permanent enemies or friends, and we must find the intersection of our interests with them and push for that to get to leverage their power and also achieve our objectives and our other interests. They planned, created and help Israel primarily for their own interests but Israel also benefits greatly, so do many others, why not us, why not Iran? Why do we have to always be with or against somebody? Why not like many we just find where our interests intersect and make the most out of it for ourselves and play it right. Until we don’t mature politically, we’ll be in this plight we are. Think about it.
Simple yet complicated equation
by Fred on Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:40 AM PDTThe mother milk to the Islamist republic’s continued survival is the petrodollars pouring into its coffers. This fund is used to pay for supporters mostly staffing overlapping brutal security agencies suppressing any and all peaceful moves by the enslaved Iranians who want democracy. The dollars are also freely used to create and finance multitude of foreign terrorist proxy armies, i.e. Hezbollah, Mahdi, Hamas, and others to do the Islamist republic’s biddings. The opponents of the Islamist regime who have gone through the experience of eight years of “reform movement” from the within have come to realize the futility of such desires. The proponents of the regime are advocating a gradual many many decades long process of Islamist republic administered democratization and fail to notice all that has been tried and failed in the past. So as the clock is ticking on the road to critical mass which all dictatorships have faced the time to answer the fundamental question is at hand. Is it morally justified to support the continuation of the three decades long ruination of Iran and slow painful suffocation of life out of Iranians with crises after crises lurking around corners or do the radical mastectomy that which is needed? The alternative involves sorties, dumb and smart missiles that no one of clear conscious wants. Even if the desired “grand bargain” by the Islamist lobbies and oil company gofers does materialize assuring the Islamist republic’s survival, it would only be a temporary measure delaying the eventuality and raising the cost.
Oil price
by Jahanshah Rashidian on Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:56 AM PDTOil price mainly fluctuates with political events, stability of the region... rather than with dollar devaluation. When in 1979 Iranian oil production sank, oil price raised. Saudi Arabia already signaled its readiness to raise its oil prodution to 5,00,000 barells a day. It used to pump till 14,000000 barrels per day before and has always been for a higher OPEC-oil production. According to the recent news, Suadis are even ready to sign profitable contracts with Russia to hamper Russian-IRI's nuclear cooperation.
Only 40% of world oil comes from OPEC and 11% from Iran. So, it can be produced in some African countries or even in Europe (England, Norway or maybe France (only with higher labour wages).
Like it or not, oil embargo can be under way, the IRI and The US already talk about the closing of the Strait of Hormuz.
For those who remember the effect of National Oil strikes, it is clear that oil shortage effectively paralysed the Bakhtiar government, it can also have the same results on the IRI. Oil shortage may result into a sooner fall of the unpopular IRI.
I am against economic sanctions like those on Iraq or Cuba. Furthermore, you cannot compare Cuba with Iran: Cuba has a relatively popular state with a complete social system while the IRI is extremely unpopualr and corrupt.
When Mossadegh nationalised the oil industry in 1951, it also resulted in temporary political and financial chaos. Production did not resume until late 1954, but we know that it was all in interest of the nation. As part of the nationalization process, the government formed the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC). As owner, the government directed NIOC policy. Today, oil does not belong to our nation; it is in fact in the hands of an anti-Iranian and corrupt regime which cannot resist embargos as Cuba did.
If IRI's critics, what are other practical suggestions of the opposition to help people to free their country from the plague of the IRI?
Only people suffer!
by Ali reza (not verified) on Wed Jul 16, 2008 11:12 PM PDTSanction and embargo have never helped the country that impose them.Just look at Cuba.They have been under USA embargo for the last 50 years and they have made it.Embargo make people's lives difficult,but they survive.Sanctions may effect a govenment dealing with other countries,but but does not make them fall.Peace on Earth
Traitor
by Mirza (not verified) on Wed Jul 16, 2008 09:57 PM PDTWhy does Iranian.com publish this anti-Iranian garbage? This clown is advocating brutal policies that inflict the average Iranian who cannot defend him or herself. What a fool this man is!
Shame on you. The word
by Anonymous1234 (not verified) on Wed Jul 16, 2008 09:05 PM PDTShame on you.
The word "treason" is probably not strong enough to describe people like you.
Either you are blindly repeating the propaganda of the US-Israel war machine, or you are consciously contributing to their discourse by promoting the idea that Iran is a dangerous nazi-like State with nuclear aspirations.
People like you have no shame sacrificing their people and their land for the sake of domestic politics.
"Sari keh baraayeh man najoosheh, mikhaam sareh sag toosh bejoosheh", that's your filthy mentality.
Wrong assumption
by Mammad on Wed Jul 16, 2008 08:56 PM PDTMr. JR, you have made several statements with which I agree, and some that I do not. But, I would like to point out one error of yours, aside from everything else:
OPEC and other oil producers do not have the excess capacity to make up for the loss of Iranian oil. Saudi Arabia, the best "hope" of the US, can only pump at most - and this an overestimate - 1 million more barrels of oil/day. They are not willing to do it, because dollar has lost its value greatly, and Saudi Arabia receives its oil income in dollar. Therefore, they will not do anything to lower the oil price.
So, regardless of how one feels about your article, this assumption of yours is completely wrong. There are many sources that you can check this. This is true until at least 2014.
Mammad
Your suggestions are working great in Iraq right this minute
by Mehdi on Wed Jul 16, 2008 08:46 PM PDTI hear Iraq now has a fully democratic system and the oil money is building that country so fast that the US will be considered a backward country very soon. The political system in Iraq is so advanced now that all European countries are sending delegates to learn from them and use the knowledge to improve their own conditions. I don't understand why the US doesn't just invade all countries at once and liberate them all from the yoke of monsterous evils that have consumed them. Pitty.