Short of war

There are many models for bringing unreformable regimes down


Short of war
by Fred

You might call this confession of a reluctant sanction-monger.

Advocating sanctions against ones homeland is as strange as advocating for ones extended family to go without, so there better be a damn good reason(s) for such odd advocacy.

First a little personal background which might help in dispelling any false notion or prejudgment. My entire extended family except one sibling live in Iran, all except one world-class rich distant cousin, are middle to lower middle class with most being like the overwhelming majority of Iranians in the hand to mouth category. So my advocacy of sanctions does come from the point of view of someone who knows what it is to be of limited means, what a precarious situation it is and what real airtight economic sanctions could do.

All that said I am for sanctioning IRR, the Islamist Rapist Republic, here are some but not all my reasons:

I am convinced that the way IRR is abusing the nation, disintegration, wide spread armed civil strife and general lawlessness are not that far off, some of it already exists.

I am convinced that due to its nuke and regional interference policies IRR is imposing a devastating war on woefully unprepared Iran and Iranians.

I am convinced that the opposition to the IRR, both inside and outside, are opportunistic go with the flow type, therefore do not have any plan to head off the coming devastation. And even if they had plans they lack the means to face up to such barbaric regime.

I am convinced former IRR guys, a PM, President and Speaker of Majles, who are its opposition now as the Persian saying goes are like the knife’s blade which does not cut its own handle. Their opposition will not amount to anything meaningful just adding to peoples’ piled up dashed hopes which will one day explode with devastating consequences.

I am convinced that the opposition to war and sanction at any price has become an end to itself therefore will end up in having both war and sanction imposed on Iran and Iranians.

I am convinced that unless the ruling Islamist system including the “reformist, pragmatist and principalist” is gotten rid of by the Iranian people, others with no care whatsoever for Iran or Iranian will do it and nothing will stop them.

I am convinced that IRR is way past its ideological phase and now depends on paid thugs as opposed to volunteers to do its suppression operations; less funds will mean far less thugs beating, raping and killing Iranians which is the basic tactic in any such fight to reduce the regime’s forces making the it more vulnerable to people power.

I am convinced that without airtight sanctions in addition to moral and material help to Iranians to soften the sanction blow and to quicken the fall of the Islamist Rapists, war is inevitable.

There are many models for bringing unreformable regimes such as the IRR down, for the stated reasons, to avoid war, I believe downfall of the regime should be the goal and, reluctantly believe sanction is part of any solution in that regards. Now if that makes me a warmonger so be it.


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Bijan A M

I know this will bring

by Bijan A M on

some bloods to boil, but some posters are not worthy of a response. Irandozd is amongst them.



by IRANdokht on

as oppose to what you're doing? LOL that was rich!!

as if it matters whether or not you know: Fred's been calling me many things, when he repeats one of the lamest ones over and over again he becomes boring.

Oh by the way, congrats! You have picked a really suiting nickname for yourself. Kaneh would have worked too ;-)



If Fred is so boring why do

by Shepesh on

If Fred is so boring why do you read and comment on his blogs? You can easily ignore , but you insist on trying to bring people down who are trying to have a discussion. Why not just disagree instead of saying he spreads hate, which he does not. 


Mr. Parsa

by capt_ayhab on

You note["Impossible?" Are you joking? Japan was turned into a smoldering
parking lot on August 6, 1945 and forty years later (in the '80's) they had and still have one of the largest economies in the world, not to mention a functioning democracy (a constitutional monarchy). The same could be said of Germany and Italy, for that matter. Cities like Dresden, Germany were fire bombed to hell (500,000 people in Dresden were burned alive in the bombings)

Japan for fact is one of the greatest economies of the world , however she can hardly be called an independent country. Fact is the Japan is still under literal occupation. Below is the complete list of US bases in Japan:

List of current facilities
US military bases in Japan
US military bases in Okinawa

The USFJ headquarters is at Yokota Air Base, about 30 km west of central Tokyo.

The U.S. military installations in Japan and their managing branches are:

Air Force:

* Camp Chitose, Chitose, Hokkaido
* Kadena Air Base, Okinawa Prefecture
* Kadena Ammunition Storage Area, Okinawa Prefecture
* Misawa Air Base, Aomori Prefecture
* Yokota Air Base, Fussa, Tokyo
* Fuchu Communications Station, Fuchu, Tokyo
* Tama Service Annex, Inagi, Tokyo
* Yugi Communication Site, Hachioji, Tokyo
* Camp Asaka AFN Transmitter Site, Saitama Prefecture
* Tokorozawa Transmitter Site, Saitama Prefecture
* Owada Communication Site, Saitama Prefecture
* Okuma Rest Center, Okinawa Prefecture
* Yaedake Communication Site, Okinawa Prefecture
* Senaha Communication Station, Okinawa Prefecture


* Fort Buckner, Okinawa Prefecture
* Camp Zama, Zama, Kanagawa
* Yokohama North Dock, Yokohama, Kanagawa Prefecture
* Sagami General Depot, Sagamihara, Kanagawa
* Sagamihara Housing Area, Sagamihara, Kanagawa
* Akizuki Ammunition Depot, Hiroshima Prefecture
* Hiro Ammunition Depot, Hiroshima Prefecture
* Kawakami Ammunition Depot, Hiroshima Prefecture
* Gesaji Communication Site, Okinawa Prefecture
* Army POL Depots, Okinawa Prefecture
* White Beach Area, Okinawa Prefecture
* Naha Port, Okinawa Prefecture
* Hardy Barracks, Roppongi, Tokyo
* Torii Station, Yomitan, Okinawa Prefecture, Japan

Marine Corps:

* Camp Smedley D. Butler, Okinawa, Yamaguchi Prefectures. Although these camps are dispersed throughout Okinawa and Japan they are all under the heading of Camp Smedley D. Butler):
o Camp McTureous
o Camp Courtney
o Camp Kinser
o Camp Hansen
o Camp Schwab
o Camp Shields
o Camp Gonsalves (Jungle Warfare Training Center)
o Kin Blue Beach Training Area
o Kin Red Beach Training Area
o NSGA Hanza
o Higashionna Ammunition Storage Point II
o Henoko Ordnance Ammunition Depot
o Camp Foster, Okinawa Prefecture
o Camp Lester, Okinawa Prefecture
* Marine Corps Air Station Futenma
o Yomitan Auxiliary Airfield
* Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni
* Camp Fuji, Shizuoka Prefecture
* Numazu Training Area, Shizuoka Prefecture
* Tengan Pier
* Ie Jima Auxiliary Air Field, Okinawa Prefecture
* Tsuken Jima Training Area
* Kadena Ammunition Storage Area


* Naval Air Facility Atsugi, Ayase, Kanagawa
* United States Fleet Activities Sasebo, Sasebo, Nagasaki
* United States Fleet Activities Yokosuka, Yokosuka, Kanagawa
* Urago Ammunition Depot, Yokosuka, Kanagawa Prefecture
* Tsurumi POL Depot, Yokohama, Kanagawa Prefecture
* Naval Housing Annex Negishi, Yokohama, Kanagawa Prefecture
* Naval Transmitter Station Totsuka, Yokohama, Kanagawa Prefecture
* Naval Support Facility Kamiseya, Yokohama, Kanagawa Prefecture
* Tomioka Storage Area, Yokohama, Kanagawa Prefecture
* Naval Housing Annex Ikego, Zushi, Kanagawa
* White Beach Area, Okinawa Prefecture
* Awase Communication Station, Okinawa Prefecture
* Sobe Communication Site, Okinawa Prefecture
* New Sanno Hotel, Tokyo

Japan–U.S. Status of Forces Agreement Areas:

* Kisarazu Auxiliary Landing Field—Kisarazu, Chiba Prefecture
* Camp Hansen (small portion in central area of Camp Hansen)—Okinawa Prefecture
* Ukibaru Jima—Okinawa Prefecture
* Kadena Air Base (small areas outside of the base that are supported by Kadena—these areas are located on the southern portion of Okinawa)—Okinawa Prefecture
* Jungle Warfare Training Center (formerly known as Northern Training Area—four thin elongated areas embedded and distributed evenly within JWTC)—Okinawa Prefecture

In Okinawa, U.S. military installations occupy about 10.4 percent of the total land usage. Approximately 74.7 percent of all the U.S. military facilities in Japan are located on the island of Okinawa.




by IRANdokht on

The people in Iran are already united! whether it's their Allaho akbar on the rooftops or their slogans on the streets where they are risking their lives, they are the ones fighting in unison! 

Instead of trying to dictate slogans to them, show your support or get out of their way.  Your comment would have been laughable if it were not so sad.

If you don't know what I mean read your comment again:

We have to make it known that the slogans from the rooftops should not be “Allah-o Akbar”

We need to convince those who risk their lives that the slogans are instead “Give me democracy or death”, “Death to dictator”, “na ghazeh, na lobnan, Jaanam fadaye Iran”…..

We need to do everything we can to unite people for a secular democracy


PS: Fred you're so boring!



IRANdokht, Aghaye Fred

by Jaleho on

"I saw the words nefrat and khoshoonat and all I thought was your blogs and comments where every day, you shower this site with your own brand of hate "

That's correct, and that brand of "hate" in my opinion has come in the form of advocating indirectly, war, devastating sanction on Iranian people; repeating the main lines of Israeli lobby which has been pushing the US foreign policy establishment to attack Iran militarily. Weaken it by sanction first a la Iraq, then invade.

But granted, in this blog Fred made his point of view clear in the most humanistic forms that I have ever seen coming from him!

He completely avoided any allusion to Israeli policy towards Iran; "as the Persian saying goes ... like the knife’s blade which does not cut its own handle," he managed to say the same thing without cutting himself!


You do not want to learn

by Javadagha on

Chicken Fred;

You do not want to learn.  You keep repeating the same non-sense in different forms on a daily basis.

I wish you well (some shafa).



by Fred on

As I understand it the separation of mosque and state has been learned the hard way by most, tactics should not be mistaken for the goal.

Should after the overthrow of IRR and the required grace period one senses the need to propagate the merits of secularism, then I’ll be there 24/7. And should the majority vote in a fair and verifiable election to have a mixture of religion and state, I will oppose it but nevertheless respect the will of majority continuing my opposition to it.



سخن نو آر که نو را حلاوتی است دگر



Professional wishy-washy sycophants’ attacks are a given.


Bijan A M

Fred Jaan,

by Bijan A M on

Don’t mean to argue, but, what if the majority of the same people that we are trying to protect are the “smiley to the sourpuss and all in between”?   We have to make it known that the slogans from the rooftops should not be “Allah-o Akbar” (that should be saved for the privacy of one’s home or place of worship).   We need to convince those who risk their lives that the slogans are instead “Give me democracy or death”, “Death to dictator”, “na ghazeh, na lobnan, Jaanam fadaye Iran”…..Just winning the debate will not produce results.

 We need to do everything we can to unite people for a secular democracy.

Keep up your fight, we are all behind you.  



by IRANdokht on

جنبش بی‌خشونت جنبش بی‌نفرت



I saw the words nefrat and khoshoonat and all I thought was your blogs and comments where every day, you shower this site with your own brand of hate  

peace man ;-)





by Fred on

I do hope you are right, but I think my sense of urgency is misunderstood. I believe the entire IRR has to go for all of them from their smiley to the sourpuss and all in between have the same mindset in which Iran and Iranian rank at the bottom of their priorities.

Therefore my beef is with the entire gang and think as long as they are there no peace anywhere around the Middle East or any relief for Iran and Iranians is forthcoming and the great likelihood of them starting a devastating war worries me constantly.

 To me diplomacy is like using Aspirin to what end? whereas the patient is suffering from a malignant ailment.  Take care.



by Fred on

Ok Doc,  your loutish Islamist language and your usual threadbare death fatwa are not going to shut me up, for the record I am not Anti-Islam, but feel free to do what is in your nature.

If I understand it correctly you are upset about me “having the nerves” to question as you say “everybody” and not having political background like you and “label everybody”, not having a leader and not getting into the sanction argument.

For the pro and anti airtight sanctions arguments you can look it up there are many scholarly articles on both positions therefore there is no reason for duplication.

As to having the nerves, you should be the last person speaking of nerves. Didn’t you just publish an article attacking one person by name using his sibling’s political affiliation as justification whereas you share the exact circumstances with him? In the same write-up you attack another person who shares your real first name but you used his initial the other way around.

Unlike you he is the salt of the earth and a devoted human rights defender. His crime being he knows what you are up to and does not buy it, so he gets your treatment. So it is ok for you to do it and when the same is done to you it is “having the nerves”?

As to attacking “everybody” if by that you mean people with your agenda, you are right but if you are pluralizing like all Islamists think of themselves you are wrong.

As where you say:

Who the hell are you to ask rhetorical questions? What is your track record, aside from your mumbo jumbo in this and only in this site? What meaningful articles, speeches, interviews have you had? Who has been your audience? Who recognizes you as an expert, Freddo? “

I assume you are the opposite of what you think I am. If having been a follower of charlatan Ali Shariati, then being a follower of Masoud Rajavi, then being a follower of Khomeini, then being a follower of Khatami, and now being a supporter of Mousavi, you are right Doc that experience I do not have.

I neither have the experience of having written numerous articles in defense of the Islamist Rapists’ nuke program or trying to minimize the “wipe off the map” goal of the IRR.

Lastly Doc, if my “mumbo jumbo in this and only this site” is such a “garbage” and being only on this one site is so insignificant, for the third time I am asking you Doc, why such a widely published, “world renowned scientist” who is the subject of “weekly interviews” a well rounded “expert” who has special high and mighty audiences and is as distinguished as you obviously are, bothers with an insignificant garbage dispenser like me?  

Could it be truth even from nobody like me in only one site has to be quashed so charlatans’ games can go on?


Ps. when you say: “what you call history (which is not even the actual history, but your fabrication)”, would you expand on it and show the fabricated part?


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Ali Shariati is not my soul!

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

Ali Shariati was indeed a charlatan who did immense damage to Iran. His Utpoian insane ideas became the foundation of IRI. The only thing he had was charisma and a large band of undereducated and easily impressed followers.

This is a guy who goes; spends time in France; observes the advancement and freedom of a "Secular Democray". He benefits and gets a western education. Then he comes back and makes his living out of bad mouthing the west. The same horrible west that educated him. I guess that was good for him but not for the next generation of Iranians.

Then he gets it in his head that we need an "Islamic Maxist" system in Iran! The polar opposite of the west that educated him. How could anyone come up with such a reckless and stupid idea is beyond me. But he had a chance to observe how west had advanced. What would poses him to prescribe the opposite for Iran?

Bands of sheep followed and worshiped him as their savior. We know the rest very well.


Fred is smarter than you Bijan

by kharmagas on

Bijan says: "1-IRI insists on his right to enrich uranium and a war breaks out and leads to WWIII

2-IRI abides by the will of the globe and gives up the dream of atomic bomb...."

Bijan, while some of you guys (or "globe" as you call it) have been after someone else's land, some else's oil, someone else's right to enrichment, someone else's right to resist submission, some else's scitentists, ...., some elses right to trade with other countries (in name of sanctions). Fred has realized that those are necessary, but ultimately crude methods, Fred has realized that one should go after their soul, that is why he says:

Fred says: "At what point are they willing to throw in the towel and accept their devotion to charlatan Ali Shariati, Mojahedin association and other wacky behaviors have had disastrous consequences?"





by Mammad on

You never respond to actual statements. As soon as you feel that a person has made meaningful statements that are contrary to your usual garbage about "airtight sanctions," you jump in. You only repeat your hatred-filled, prejudiced, anti-Islam, anti-Muslim nonsense garbage. When are you going to learn?

Who the hell are you to ask rhetorical questions? What is your track record, aside from your mumbo jumbo in this and only in this site? What meaningful articles, speeches, interviews have you had? Who has been your audience? Who recognizes you as an expert, Freddo?

You have a lot of nerves. You post here your constant garbage about "airtight sanctions." There is no analysis of why this would work. There is no analysis of why this would not lead to war. You refuse to respond to any question (because you have no answers to them), but your filty arrogance allows you to question everybody, attack everybody, label everybody, use the worst possible forms of slander in your desperate attempt to intimidate people who are opposed to your worn out rehashing to comment here. 

Let me paraphrase your own rhetoric: At what point are you going to learn that you do not have the lock on what you call history (which is not even the actual history, but your fabrication)? At what point are you going to set aside your anti-Islam, anti-Muslim rhetoric?

Who do you suggest should lead the movement in Iran? Any movement needs leadership. No movement can succeed without leadership. So, who is the leader? You? This is a perfect example of your garbage. Your only "art" is to attack, but you have no capability whatsoever to suggest alternatives, simply because your atomic-size brain can only leak hatred. 

So, once again, in your fantasies who is the leader of the strong movement in Iran, or who should be?



Bijan A M


by Bijan A M on

I have probably said this many times and you probably are aware of it, but I don’t see any harm in repeating. I respect you as one of the most knowledgeable about history who makes the most sensible and to the point contributions on this site. I admire your passion and persistence in standing for and defending what you believe in.

I just feel sometimes we let our passion to get over the best of our intentions. I’m not here to defend anybody’s statement, but to only reflect my own feelings, thoughts and opinions. I have always been a strong supporter of your call for moral and material support for freedom fighters. Even though I may not know the very specifics of material support, but I can only imagine anything that will fend off the oppressive forces of the government that would interfere with opposition organizing their force in spreading the word of democracy and uniting people behind them. To me the right cause for unity is the most important and critical element. Uniting just to rid of IRR is not sufficient (it definitely is necessary but not sufficient). We have been down this road before and have seen the consequences. Therefore we need time for the right unity to shape.

I have also supported your calls for actions, be it sanctions or whatever to divert disasters and devastations as a result of reckless provocation by IRR. However, I am still uncertain about the type of sanctions and how effective they will be. The more I think about it, the more hopeful I get that diplomacy may have a few more legs to stand on. As deceitful and corrupt as IRR might be, I believe the sane world has enough tools to put a leash (at least temporarily) on the development of the nuc weapons. I had always feared that Israel will have absolutely zero tolerance for a nuc IRR (and I still do) and might act unilaterally (even without US blessing). Those fears have subsided a little because of my buying into the diplomacy having a little more time to show results. Call me idiot, naïve, wishful thinker, or whatever. You may be absolutely right. But, this is how I feel now.

 We need people like you, mammad, JJ, and many other democracy advocates to lead us with the way we can give the moral and material support to buy time for the movement to mature in uniting FOR secular democracy, not AGAINST IRR.I hope I did not offend you with this post, none was intended.

 Best regards,



since you are after their soul (to Fred)

by kharmagas on

Fred says: "At what point are they willing to throw in the towel and accept their
devotion to charlatan Ali Shariati, Mojahedin association and other
wacky behaviors have had disastrous consequences?"

Let's say the progressive Muslims ,..., go through some brain cleansing and let go of their "wacky behaviors" and their brain is as good as new! Can you tell us about your ideology and great set of morals that they can fill the void in their brain with?



She made me do it

by Fred on

The oldest defense in most abuse situations has been, she made me do it. So goes the statements that the barbarity committed in the last thirty years by the Islamist Rapist Republic has to do with it being threatened.

The accuracy of IRR being or not being threatened all this past thirty years or itself threatening neighbors all along are matter of historical record.  As preposterous as such she made me do it defense is, the logic of such statements dictates should such threats not be there so will not the Islamists’ barbarity or if it continues people will overthrow them.

So if such notion were to be accurate and barbarity not being an innate trait of the Islamists which would be there regardless of threats or not, how come the British did not start raping, torturing and murdering en mass their own British men, women and children while under Nazi threat and later massive unrelenting aerial attacks?

How come Churchill did not act as Mousavi, yes the same Islamist champion of freedom, did while being Prime Minister?  How many were murdered in cold blood in IRR’s dungeons during Mousavi, was it five of six thousands that are known by name and bio?


Hence the following statement by Doc who is also of the opinion Islamist Rapists having nuke is no biggie, does not empower them assuring their longevity and has no consequence on the democracy movement in Iran is as stupefying as the she made me do it defense:

“It is exactly this threat that has been used by the hardliners for 30 years to repress and oppress the population. So, once that threat is gone, or at least reduced greatly, the excuse for invoking it will no longer be there. The hardliners will then have no choice but either responding to aspirations of the people, or one way or another be overthrown without any outside interference.”


BTW, the “hardliners” have not responded to peoples’ aspirations and their chosen response for the past thirty years is a matter of record. What remains to be worked out is the “one way or another be overthrown without any outside interference” part, which proposes to be the first in history to defeat a barbaric tyranny without outside help.

In another words lets learn to live with the Islamist Rapists and think of creative ways to assume what the same eight years Islamist Prime Minister during whose time thousands of Iranians were verifiably raped, murdered and tortured-the same man who repeatedly says he wants to go back to his Imam, i.e. Murderous Khomeini’s time, abides by its constitution and strenuously admonishes people for their Iranian Republic slogan - now means something entirely different in an interpretive version of his off the cuff remark.

Haven’t the polished Islamists done enough damage?

At what point are they willing to throw in the towel and accept their devotion to charlatan Ali Shariati, Mojahedin association and other wacky behaviors have had disastrous consequences?

When are they going to pack it in and leave people to their own devices free of polished Islamists’ impediments and burden?


Bijan A M

Dear Vildemose

by Bijan A M on

I do appreciate your encouraging posts and thanks for the links in your multiple post. Haven’ t had a chance to read all of them and all the links within those links. The article about how to deal with "post election" Iran was very interesting. I hope their assessment is right and time for diplomacy is not running out as fast as I fear.

If the world could, in a verifiable form, stop IRI from developing bombs while respecting Iranian rights to peaceful nuclear development, there is no doubt that Iranian people inside will take care of democracy and secularism. Call me naïve if you like, but this is what I believe. Forget about this No Fear character and his “melli-mazhabi” slogans. After the rise of SD in Iran, he will mellow down and follow his ideas without “arbadeh keshi”.

Thanks again for the links



by Mammad on

There is no question in my mind (of course, I could be wrong) that the unity is gravitating towards a secular republic. Now, it does not mean that the SR will come over night, but the path is clearly in that direction, as long and as tortuous it may be. In my opinion, people have recognized that it is in Iran's interest, and in Islam's interest also (and I say that as a practicing Muslim), for religion to completely get out of government.

Even Mir Hossein Mousavi has spoken about it indirectly. He has repeatedly said, "ghaanoun-e asaasi vahye monzal nist," meaning it is not something that cannot be changed. So, even he acknowledges that.

Mousavi and Karroubi are not the ideal leaders. But, at this point they have an important role to play, until a younger generation of leaders emerge - and it is emerging. Why do you think that university students leaders are constantly harrassed and jailed? Why was Abdollah Momeni given six years in jail, or young journalists are jailed? Precisely because these are new leaders that are emerging. As far as I know, most, if not all, are practicing Muslims also, but they believe in true democracy, which must necessarily be secular.  



Setareh khanoum

by Mammad on

Like any Iranian nationalist, I defend Iran's sovereignty to the extent that I humanly can. But, what I say will not violate it.

There are two points main here:

(1) Iran has signed most, if not, all the relevant international agreements regarding human rights. These signings must mean something. Just as the IRI correctly says that Iran is entitled to peaceful use of nuclear technology in the framework of the international agreements - and I have defended that vigorously, so long as Iran abides by its obligations also - the same argument can be and must be used vigorously when it comes to human rights.

A nation cannot arbitrarily decide which international agreement that it has signed should be executed to the fullest, and which should not. This argument is true about any nation. Just as Israel, the US and others are correctly criticized for their violations, so should also the IRI.

Although as you correctly point out respect for human rights is part of any democratic institution, it also transcends the boundaries of any nation, because human rights and respect for them are universal values. Just as we criticize what Israel does to Palestinians - as does the IRI - so should also we criticize the same in Iran. Just as we demand some retribution against Israel, so should also we demand the same for our own country. The retribution does not have to be sanctions or war. It can come in many different forms. Otherwise, we won't be credible.

(2) But, I also believe that the US will never make human rights a serious issue, simply because the US is not serious about it. If it were, it would start from its own allies - Saudi Arabia, Egypt, jordan, Kuwait, Yemen, Oman, Turkmenistan, Pakistan, Azerbaijan, Israel ... For the US, even under President Obama, human rights is just a tool.

So, the US will negotiate with the IRI regardless of what we want. It will do what it perceives to be in its national interests. That could still be useful, but by demanding that human rights be on the table, we can make it even more useful.

Libya gave up its nuclear program, but it is still the Stalinist regime that it was before giving it up. Do we hear anything about human rights violations by Qaddafi's regime any more? Of course, not. The US and its Western allies are happily getting Libya's oil. 

And the West will never attack a country because it violates its obligations towards human rights. HR is just an excuse.


Bijan A M


by Bijan A M on

Many, many thanks for taking the time to post. Everything that you have posted in your comment makes a lot of sense and I wholeheartedly agree with most of what you say. Specially when you say:

 “At this point, it is in Iran's and democratic movement's interest to agree on a minimum of demands, in order to have the maximum support and unity.”

 I am dying to know if this “unity” is gravitating towards SD and if there are others with cleaner history than Mousavi and Karroubi that could emerge as leaders of the opposition movement?

 I also pray and hope within the realm of reality that people in Iran will have enough time and resources to unite for the cause of SD. I support with all my being any activism that would buy them that time. My whole fear is that we might be running out of time and the whole process of “uniting for the cause of democracy” be shelved for the cause of Nationalism (not suggesting that the two are mutually exclusive but rather be forced to be put in tandem with different priorities rather simultaneous existence). It is only this fear that drives me to participate in the debates and raise questions over how the outside forces (because of the nuclear issues) will impact the movement.

 I always respect your knowledge and appreciate your posts, whether in agreement or disagreement.

 Thanks again, sir.    

Setareh Cheshmakzan

Kharmagas jan

by Setareh Cheshmakzan on

Bijan is busy learning about Melli-Mazhabi! LOL :)  After all, he should learn who is who if Fred is to replace Ahmadi-Nedjad lol.  In the meantime NoFear is furious by the accusation :)


I agree with you Setareh

by kharmagas on

I had simillar issues with some of Mammad's statements. Naozobellah mena sheytanne rajim, when I saw those statements by Mammad, I thought he got possessed by Makhmalbaff's rogue sprit! (forgive me Mammad) (*)! :)

BTW, thanks for asking those questions, as I didn't want to enter to that because this Bijan guy would have jumped in and talked trash.

(*) I hope I used Naozolelleh ... in this context correctly


The Atomic Rulebook: Iran and IAEA Safeguard Violations

by vildemose on

"I think that if [the Tehran Research Reactor deal is not resolved before] the Board of Governors meeting, the nicest possible thing you could say about it is that the game is in overtime. I think that will seriously complicate things, because the Board of Governors is quite likely to send Iran to the Security Council again, with a violation of safeguards, over the Qom facility, and that means that the momentum is going to be very negative, after the Board of Governors meeting, because we'll all be back in punishment mode, and the Iranians will be back in defiance mode, and it's going to be very hard -- if it's hard to get a deal done now, it'll be a lot harder to get one done then, because the atmospherics will shift quite starkly.

And similarly, if we can get it done before then, it would change the atmospherics in the Board of Governors enough that the referral to the Security Council, which I assume would still happen, would be much gentler in tone, and would not basically come with the promise of sanctions on it, because there's a substantial overlap between getting a two-thirds vote on the Board of Governors and getting a sanctions vote in the Security Council. It's not a slam dunk. You have to deal with the Russian and Chinese vetoes. But, if they get a referral, they will pass a Security Council resolution, and I doubt it will be totally toothless. I'm not predicting what will be in it, but, you know, going into the Board of Governors meeting without making a deal is going to create a very dark and ugly atmosphere, and that is going to lead to a pretty tough referral.

Unless there's a miracle, and Iran suddenly decides to go with the original terms of the nuclear deal offered by the P5+1, things look like they will be very difficult for them indeed, going into the Board of Governors meeting.


Conclusion And A Cautionary Note

A world without rules would be very chaotic indeed. A world without rules regarding dual-use technology, like nuclear fission and its related technologies, would be a nightmare.

When an independent, international watchdog agency like the IAEA has concerns about illicit activity involving nuclear materials, they have those concerns for a reason. Picking and choosing which of their findings one is going to believe (or not believe) because it doesn't fit one's worldview is not the way to approach their conclusions. The rules laid out by the IAEA and by the terms of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty are absolutely clear, and they are absolutely to be followed to the letter.

It is my opinion that it would be a happier world if all states, whether or not they have signed the NPT, could somehow pledge to only use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, and never for weapons.

Unfortunately, the world is not ideal.

I'll end with something that Josh Pollack said to me. We were talking about how invariably, someone will mention "this means we're going to bomb Iran" whenever news like the current safeguards report comes up.

This is about diplomacy. It's not about war. This is just the opening move...

The diplomatic ball is in Iran's court now. What are they going to do with it?"




Dear Bijan: I also think

by vildemose on

Dear Bijan: I also think there will be no negotiation between the US and Khamnei. Obama has to think of something else beside war and sanctions. He has too much on his plate with Afghanistan and the economy. I think just to look that he is doing something, he will opt for the easiest way out to gain political scores in the domesti politic arena.


Dear Bijan: As you can see

by vildemose on

Dear Bijan: As you can see again and again, Iran's threat to Israel is considered as insignificant because in their mind Israel should not exist in the first place. There is total disconnect. It's the Islamist's blind spot.

 The Islamists think  the US and Israel are going to wait for the evolution of Iranians society to become a Jeffersonian democracy while their enemy is going to obtain nukes!

The below post is your comment  from another thread. I would like one of the Islamists cyber militia to respond to that.

Sanctions will not do it.  What will? I agree, diplomacy is the way to go. But what if it fails?. You and I cannot control the reaction of Israelis or the world (for that matter). Are you willing to test your theory at the price of innocent lives? What if a war breaks out after Israelis used the bunker busters to attack Natanz facilities? What if Iran threw a shahab 3 to the center of population in Tel Aviv? What do you think is next? Would Iran have even a remote chance of becoming an independent democracy for our great grand children?

Setareh Cheshmakzan

Dear Mammad - Human rights

by Setareh Cheshmakzan on

Dear Mammad, thank you.  I mostly agree with you.  My only possible disagreement or something that I am unconvinced about is the inclusion of the issue of human rights in Iran in the agenda of US/Iran negotiations.  The scale and extent of the US abuse of human rights drawf Iran's domestic human rights abuse and that abuse is also a serious international concern.  As much as I believe the abuse of human rights in Iran to be most damaging to Iran's national security by rendering it much more vulnerable to external manipulation, intervention or attack, but I don't see why Iran, as a sovereign country should negotiate the issues of its internal democracy and rights, as part of an external negotiation.  Would we consider demanding that American abuse of human rights should also be part of the negotiations, or would any anti-war American consider the US human rights record to be relevant to any dialogue with Iran? 

I would really appreciate it if you could clarify why the inclusion of human rights is important in the negotiations.  Thanks.