Why Contain Iran?

... when its own aims will do just that?

Balatarin
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Why Contain Iran?
by Vali Nasr
02-Nov-2011
 

Iran is once again in America’s cross hairs. Even before the allegations of an Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington, concerns about Iran were high, with an impending U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq possibly leading to increased Iranian influence there. U.S. opinion and decision makers are expanding their estimate of Iran’s adventurousness and calling for new containment measures.

In both exercises, there is room for misjudgment. In fact, Iran has not become more ambitious of late; rather, its aspirations have been underestimated. As for attempting to rein in Iran, that could prove both counterproductive and unnecessary.

Until recently, the U.S. government regarded Iran as subdued, weakened and relatively isolated. There was considerable evidence for this view. Iran’s leadership is deeply divided. Its economy is reeling as a result of economic sanctions, which have reduced trade and therefore contact with the Arab world.

What’s more, Iran’s standing in the Middle East appeared to be declining after the Arab Spring. The “Arab street,” once enamored with Iran’s bluster, is now turned off by the country’s suppression of dissent at home and its support for the oppressive Syrian regime. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are helping Syrian President Bashar al-Assad put down a growing uprising. The possibility of a collapse of the Assad regime threatens to confound Iran’s plans for regional domination. Syria is Iran’s main Arab ally and its conduit for aid to Hezbollah, the militant, Islamist Lebanese group that Iran has used as a proxy to menace Israel, the U.S., Lebanon itself and others.

A Different View

From Tehran, however, the situation looks quite different. For one thing, Iran is not as worried about losing sway in a post-Assad Syria as many in the West think. Iran calculates that until Syria gets back the Golan Heights, a plateau captured by Israel in the 1967 war, any government in Damascus will need Hezbollah as a force to pressure Israel. And with Hezbollah comes Iranian influence.

Iran’s leaders are clearly preparing for the possibility of Assad’s fall. Even while claiming nefarious outsiders are fomenting the unrest in Syria, they have begun to add veiled criticisms of the regime’s brutal crackdown, an obvious means of pandering to the street.

What’s more, Iran’s leaders perceive that it is the U.S. position, not theirs, that has weakened in the region. They see U.S. troops withdrawing precipitously from both Iraq and Afghanistan; U.S. relations with Pakistan turning ever more sour; and Arab dictators who have been propped up by America for years under threat or already gone. The brazen nature of the Washington assassination plot supports the idea that Iran sees the U.S. as soft.

Given this perception, Iran is asserting itself. In the past two years, it has eschewed serious engagement with the U.S. on the Iranian nuclear program, Afghanistan or anything else. Rebuffing the U.S. idea of a hot line to avoid conflict in the Persian Gulf, Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari, Iran’s navy commander said, “The presence of the U.S. in the Persian Gulf is illegitimate and makes no sense.”

Fill the Void

Iran’s goals are to hasten the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq and fill the void left behind. Iran has increased its outreach to the Taliban and is pushing to complete a project to supply natural gas to Pakistan through a pipeline connecting the two countries. In Iraq, it has supported stepped-up attacks by the Iranian-backed Shiite resistance and is talking about having an expanded role after the Americans leave, for instance by volunteering to train the military. Iran is also exploring diplomatic relations with Egypt, which it has not had in years.

In this U.S. election season, presidential candidates will be tempted to propose strategies to contain Iran’s aspirations. To be seriously effective, such plans would require Arab countries as well as Russia and China, major trading partners of Iran, to sign on to a concerted policy of isolating the country. That’s unlikely to happen, given the Arab world’s preoccupation with Libya and Syria and the eagerness of Russia and China to do business with Iran.

Moreover, if the U.S. confronts Iran directly, it would probably work to the advantage of Iranian leaders, allowing them to divert attention from domestic woes such as inflation, unemployment and the embarrassing alienation between Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The U.S. should not hand them that opportunity.

The alternative is to let Iran’s ambitious regional strategy play out. So far, it hasn’t gone so well. Iran has clashed over Syria with Turkey, which is hosting anti-Assad forces. And Iran’s strained relations with the other big Mideast power, Saudi Arabia, have been tested anew by the Washington plot and by the suspicious assassination in May of a Saudi diplomat in Karachi, Pakistan.

Iran expects greater influence in Iraq and Afghanistan once U.S. troops leave, but with that will come greater burdens. Once absent, America can no longer be the focus of opposition in both places. Instead, Iran may replace the U.S. as the target of popular anger, blamed for the failure of government to meet people’s needs. Iran may prove no more able to pacify Iraq and Afghanistan than the U.S. has been. Iran is adept at causing security headaches in the region but is untested when it comes to resolving them.

Failure on that front would leave Iran, rather than the U.S., in the middle of renewed civil conflict in Iraq or Afghanistan. It also would have direct implications for Iran domestically. Renewed chaos in either country would send refugees flooding into Iran and increase drug trafficking and violence in the border areas.

Iran may come to remember fondly the period when the U.S. military absorbed resentments in the region.

First published in businessweek.com.

AUTHOR
Vali Nasr is a Bloomberg View columnist and a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. The opinions expressed are his own. Contact vali.nasr@tufts.edu.

Balatarin
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Anonymous Observer

Amir Jaan - this reminds me...

by Anonymous Observer on Thu Nov 03, 2011 08:33 AM PDT

Come on now, AO, you warmongering, Zionist-AIPAC-CIA-MI6-Mossad-Colonialist-Imperialist,

It's the beginning of the month and I have yet to receive my various pychecks from the above mentioned entities.  

Come on folks, I have bills to pay. :-)


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Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

HG

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Thu Nov 03, 2011 08:26 AM PDT

 

Bahraini are about what Saudi are able to beat. Yes when faced with unarmed vastly outnumbered civilians they do good. But not when facing a real trained army. 


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AMIR1973

AO -- say it ain't so....

by AMIR1973 on Thu Nov 03, 2011 07:51 AM PDT

Leave the IR alone, and everything "dorost mishe inshallah."

You mean to say that the IRI won't evolve into a decent regime if left to its own devices? What about the "reformists" (i.e. the IRI's other Khomeinist gang)? What about the U.S. civil rights movement? Can't IRI have a similar civil rights movement? What about Beautiful Palestine? If the Arabs get another wonderful state (the 21st one, give or take), that will take away "another excuse" from the IRI and it will "evolve" or be "reformed" into something better. Come on now, AO, you warmongering, Zionist-AIPAC-CIA-MI6-Mossad-Colonialist-Imperialist, are you actually doubting that everything in IRI "dorost misheh"?


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hamsade ghadimi

peighambar khorassani jan,

by hamsade ghadimi on Thu Nov 03, 2011 07:43 AM PDT

peighambar khorassani jan, tell that to the bahrainis.


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Anonymous Observer

Not very well thought out

by Anonymous Observer on Thu Nov 03, 2011 07:48 AM PDT

Huge assumption here that is not supported by IR's previous history and M.O.:

 Failure on that front would leave Iran, rather than the U.S., in the middle of renewed civil conflict in Iraq or Afghanistan. It also would have direct implications for Iran domestically. Renewed chaos in either country would send refugees flooding into Iran and increase drug trafficking and violence in the border areas.

First, the IR has never shown hesitation and distress in taking in refugees, even during some of its most difficult years, when its own population suffered with shortage of basic becessities.  As everyone will recall, Iran absorbed millions of Iraqi and Afghan refugees in the 1980's and 1990's.  So, the whole idea that an influx of refugees will cause the downfall of the IR is simply not supported by evidence.  And as far as drugs are concerned, the IR will probably help transit the drugs to Europe and make some money off of it, as it has done in the past.

Second, the IR will NEVER be as involved in Iraq or Afghanistan as the U.S. was.  It just doesn't have the capability to do so.  Its role will be limited to behind the scenes manipulation and small infiltrations, over which it will have to compete with other regional forces such as Saudi Arabia and even Turkey.  So, its role will be limited by its own lack of resources and lack of a real military.

Third, the U.S. will NEVER leave the region in Iran's hands.  It is already building up a regional reaction force that will be ready to slap the IR back into its place whenever it does something stupid.   

So, all of this is just another NIAC style wishful thinking scenario that we have heard before.  Leave the IR alone, and everything "khodesh dorost mishe inshallah."

PS- Why would that monkey, [horse's] Rear [end] Habibollah Sayyari, the head of IR's so-called navy,  decline America's offer of a hotline?  Knowing that one American submarine can destroy its entire ancient so-called navy and send them all either to the bottom of the sea or in inflatable lifeboats, the IR should jump on that opprtunity.  But then again, having common sanse has not been known to be one of IR's attributes.  


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Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

HG Jan

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Thu Nov 03, 2011 01:33 AM PDT

 

Saudi are wimps and all anyone needs to do is to say "pakh". The Saudi family will be on a plane to London before you say "p" of "pakh" Anyone Syria; Iraq or Iran with any leadership would make them run so don't worry about them.


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hamsade ghadimi

a major element missing

by hamsade ghadimi on Wed Nov 02, 2011 03:33 PM PDT

a major element missing from the analysis by nasr is the role that the saudis and arab league will play.  i don't think that the arabs, especially saudis, will just sit around and watch iri fill the void. and let's not forget israel which will also be watching how this dangerous game between iri, arabs, and other countries in the region plays out.  nonetheless, a good article when one considers u.s. and iri as the only two countries with influence in the region.


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Anahid Hojjati

Mehrdad and Vildemose jan, thanks for your comments

by Anahid Hojjati on Wed Nov 02, 2011 02:32 PM PDT

 Vildemose, interesting comment from you about Turkey aiding rebels in Syria.This can indeed lead to some conflicts as you noted.


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alimostofi

VPK: Status Quo

by alimostofi on Wed Nov 02, 2011 02:03 PM PDT

VPK: Status Quo .............

The reason we have a status quo, is because the same people provide the military equipment to all. At the same time most of the manufacturing is done with dirt cheap oil from Iran, sent to Guandong province in China; where Apple and Wal-Mart make stuff with the help of political prisoners.

Ali Mostofi

//twitter.com/alimostofi

 


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Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

What a mess

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Wed Nov 02, 2011 01:52 PM PDT

 

USA is *** because they are stuck like Khar to Gel in Iraq and Afghanistan. We are stuck here in the West wishing to be back in Iran. People in Iran are stuck in Mollah hell hole wishing to get out of it.

This thanks to our dear idealists who decided we needed democracy. A friend of mine who is part Hopi Native American told me about Democracy. He said they refer to it as "White pe***". Because that was the only thing Democracy brought them! 

If there was a Pahlavi or at least a similar regime America would be out of there. Iran would fix the problems and USA would stop bugging us. I would be teaching in some university in Iran and having chelo kabab every weekend. 


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Bavafa

Well said Anahid Jaan...

by Bavafa on Wed Nov 02, 2011 01:36 PM PDT

And/or when the solution does not fully and squarely fit with what our dear IC members wish it to be.

'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory 

Mehrdad


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alimostofi

Vildemouse: Share ownership

by alimostofi on Wed Nov 02, 2011 01:30 PM PDT

Vildemouse: Share ownership .......

Apple share holders would disagree with you.

Ali Mostofi

//twitter.com/alimostofi

 


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vildemose

 Anahid jan, Agreed a

by vildemose on Wed Nov 02, 2011 01:27 PM PDT

 Anahid jan, Agreed a hundred percent.

 

"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." - Louis D. Brandeis


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alimostofi

Wrong title: It should read

by alimostofi on Wed Nov 02, 2011 11:26 AM PDT

Wrong title: It should read "Why contain The Hezbollah Party in Iran" Quite honestly Nasr should know better. The whole point of this argument rests on the idea that US and Arabs are united against The Hezbollah in Iran. But Nasr fails to develop it thoroughly. Fact is that we are dealing with a political party network across the area. You need to consider The Hezbollah in Lebanon and in Iraq and their various proxies Mr Nasr. This form of writing has to change. You would not have gotten away with it at Princeton. B-for effort. Joking.

Ali Mostofi

//twitter.com/alimostofi

 


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Anahid Hojjati

Even though does not offer solution

by Anahid Hojjati on Wed Nov 02, 2011 10:54 AM PDT

Still it is a good article. Many Iran experts don't even state the situation as it is. So when I see an article that at least writes about the situation as it is, even if it does not offer solution, it is still head and shoulders above many.


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Hafez for Beginners

Interesting Article

by Hafez for Beginners on Wed Nov 02, 2011 01:07 PM PDT

 

Interesting Article...

Oh wait... did I read this on Iranian.com? I say this because the site has a silent, reasoned majority,  and a loud "Tea Party"-style crowd, who will start calling Vali Nasr an "agent", now! If you don't want to bomb hundreds of thousands to smithereens, or question championing "human rights" - while the same "humans" crash and burn in plane crashes in Iran, you must be an "agent" Mr. Nasr! And of course, Obama was born in Kenya!! 

The part that was most interesting to me, was that it's elelction season in the US. For a super power to allow foreign policy to be dictated by "election fever" - is rather regretful.  Thanks for posting  - Iranian.com.


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vildemose

 You gotta comment on the

by vildemose on Wed Nov 02, 2011 09:27 AM PDT

 You gotta comment on the Turkey aiding the rebels in Syria story that was in the NY Times. If this is true this is quite a development that could lead to some weird conflicts. 

"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." - Louis D. Brandeis


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bahmani

Great Analysis but no solutions

by bahmani on Wed Nov 02, 2011 08:59 AM PDT

Once again the mighty VN offers a brilliant report on the current obvious state of affairs, each nuance deftly described, and every angle tightly drawn. Options on how things "might" go are carefully offered with outstanding pros and cons listed.

Dude, is this what they pay you for?

I keep reading VN's stuff looking for an answer, a solution, or a remedy, and NEVER EVER find one. He seems to ONLY state the obvious with a safe non-committal analysis on what possible ramifications possible potential actions might have. Or not.

No wonder we never get anywhere. This is boring.

Thanks for re-publishing it. God forbid we get anything firsthand, published here first.

To read more bahmani posts visit: //brucebahmani.blogspot.com/


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