Ari Siletz

Iranians shouldn't revolt

In my trips to iran I have seen far more political freedom than israel. democracy doesn't belong to anyone and it's earned. i know iranians are far more intelligent and smart than we like to give them credit. i am waiting for the chance to visit iran again soon, you should too before making a judgment about it. i am proud of iran. the thing to me is that i don't know of any governments that treats its citizens nicely who want to overthrow. if mosavi established a political party at the time instead of revolt we would see a better iranian system today. he could have done it but didn't. to me it's simple. if democratic party didn't accept bush's presidency the police and military would have come to react. democrats would have been in guantanamo by now. mosavi made a mistake not to obey the law.

differences

* The IRI acts more like cultist thugs as opposed to just thugs elsewhere.  This is why it is important not to let another cultist system to take their place.

* The IRI elite have a lot more blood at hand, therefore more desperate to hang on because they know that once off of their power base, there is no place to hide from the Iranian justice system as well as the international court in the Hague.

* But I have agree that folks in Iran have had a lot more time at hand thinking about different aut-the-dem-ocracies.  For example, Egyptians took aut- out of ***ocracy, they have a choice between the-ocracy and dem-ocracy, but the choice for Iran is very clear: DEM-OCRACY.

I argue that opposition in Iran is in a much better shape than

Say Libya or Bahrain or Yeman where scores of protesters were killed by government last week alone.

In Iran, we had two massive sets of  demos last week alone, with only  two confirmed and one yet to be confirmed (yesterday) death. The Green opposition has sprung back to life after nearly two years of suppression by the regime with amazing bang! Sure, the islamist regime is as sneaky and brutal as it can get. They have been trained by KGB and MI6 on counter revolutionary techniques. They gained power through a revolutionary process themselves. But they are running out of options against the opposition and clearly confused. I also think that the regime, by Isolating Mousavi/Karoubi from the movement has done the greatest service to the opposition!

The Challenge now in front of the Green movement is to really hit the regime where it hurts, by calling general strikes, campaigns of civil disobedience and most importantly, absorb the working class poor which will be hit very hard over the months to come due to economic problems, into it's ranks.

Make no mistakes, the islamist regime will not go peacefully. It will be a bloody affair and for that the Green movement needs tough, hard, foot soldiers from the ranks of working classes.

My two cents. 

"The People, United, Will never be defeated."

EA: Agreed. I don't believe

EA: Agreed. I don't believe that people are happy living on welfare checks anywhere in the world. They are hopless and don't see a bright future ahead. Most become addicts or mentally ill and a liability to the society.

JD and Bavafa jaans u can't eat subsidies day in and day out!

Over the weekend there was an interview by Fareek Zakaria and Karim Sadjadpour and Hooman Majd.  I wrote a blog about it here.

I think economic hardship is the #1 reason people come to the streets and then you top it off with social repression.  It's a lose lose situation!

Everything is sacred

If you want Arabs to

If you want Arabs to revolt, keep them hungry.

If you want Iranians to revolt, feed them.

Does anyone recall this saying?? I forgot the exact wordings??

Bavafa

I think if you read my comment I am saying the same. In the Arab ountries aspiration for freedom is far on the lower scale than their need for basic necessities of life.  A true revolution can not be limited to just the youth, it has be to be in much greater scale, or else it is not genuine.  With all that went on in 1979 we saw that the whole thing was rigged.  Iranian regime can always survive by giving more concessions and gradual compromises.  To give you a simple and very unfortunate scenario. Think of a remote but very possible chance that Khamenei decides to remove Ahmadinejad and expedite the next election and this time rig it by installing Mousave or Karoubi. From that point on killing and arresting any demonstrator will be the law of land. There are so many ways to skin a cat.  

JD: I believe Iranian youth R more hungry for freedom then food

And as the young population are the core part of this upraising and far greater number, then the hopes are they will raise in a greater numbers inspired by other young folks in Egypt and now Bahrain.

I believe and hope this is the beginning of an end for IRI.

Mehrdad

oil, gas and subsidies

Iran has about 140 billion barrels of crude oil reserve, is number one/two of natural gas reserve and has about $40 billion dollars of non oil exports annually. After all the corruptions, theft and embezzlement by the regime elements and their families, there is plenty left to transfer to people in form of subsidies. 75% of Iranians live on handouts. Handouts in form of salary and wages for no real work performed and no production, and also in form of coupons and other non productive reimbursements. People are not hungry, they are oppressed. So far in all those Arab countries in addition to oppression, people are also despearte for food and very basic necessities of life. That is why in Iran people always have to flip a coin to choose between losing all their handouts from the regime if they are named as participants in demonstrations or to just stay silent and survive.  Iranians are conditioned to stay intimidated and survive with less and less during the past 31 years.  Change will come in the msot unexpected way and not by the means we have been seening so far.  I think there are things brewing for Iran beyond our knowledge and we will be surprised when it happens. Stay tuned.

Many of the same people that chant slogans on top of their roof at night, turn around and attend Friday prayers, just to be seen as loyal to the regime for the fear of a cut in handouts.One of the prime example of subsidies and handouts is the military in Iran. Being called the 9th largest military is not because of its strength, instead it has the largest number of unproductive mouths to feed. The huge number of people on subsidies are represented as supporters of the regime by sheer forces of silence. That is for the time being.

Dear Ari

IRAN:

1. Iran is different because:
//www.google.ca/search?hl=en&q=%22Iran+is+different+because%22&btnG=Search&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=
2. US and Iran Showdown not backed by Pakistan and Other Neighbors:
//www.suite101.com/content/us-and-iran-showdown-not-backed-by-pakistan-and-other-neighbours-a317399
3. Kissinger: Obama is handling the situation in Iran well:
//thinkprogress.org/2009/06/18/kissinger-obama-iran/

@Azadeh...

I agree, Iran is definitely a different can of worms. I find it frustrating when colleagues and friends write on my FB wall why isn't IRI regime falling like the rest of the corrupt Arab regimes? I refer them back to this piece on OpenDemocracy where Saeed Rahnema writes:

"After over thirty years of suffering under a brutal Islamist regime in Iran, Iranian women, youth, workers and intellectuals revolted again in 2009. Many have compared the revolts in Egypt to the Iranian revolt of 2009 against Ahmadinejad’s electoral coup, and hope for similar results.  However, the situation in Iran at present is very different. The Egyptian regime was headed by a single dictator and that dictator was in turn dependent on a foreign power. The clerical/military oligarchy in Iran, with its intricate network of religious, repressive and economic institutions and multiple military and intelligence systems, is highly complex and also independent from any foreign power. It is a fascist-type system that still has millions on the payroll of the state and para-statal organizations, including religious foundations. It has also shown on numerous occasions that it does not hesitate to use extreme brutality against its opposition. In the long run, its fate will not be different from those of other dictatorships and authoritarian regimes in the Middle East or elsewhere, but the Iranian people unfortunately have a much more difficult fight ahead of them."

//www.opendemocracy.net/saeed-rahnema/egypt-lessons-from-iran 

However, as much as I think that a civil war might eventually happen, I hope that it doesn't. 

Iran is always different

and more complex than any other country in the region. I think there will be a long and bloody showdown between the Ummatists-Basijis and the ordinary Iranian people. A civil war!

Azadeh