ayatoilet1

1)      Iran already has nuclear war heads. They have had them for almost a decade now – and Israel knows about it. The IRGC purchased a bunch of rogue war heads from former soviet republics (Ukraine via Azerbaijan) in the 90’s and tested a warhead on December 2003 near Bam. And Israel knows all about it, because as a response to that test, Israel and India conducted a joint test exactly one year after in 2004 in the Indian Ocean. The acquisition of rogue war heads was so significant that the West (US, no less) spent hundreds of millions of dollars and almost a decade securing and disposing of all the war heads in Uzbekistan and other former soviet  republics. And, as Israel knows, these warheads are dispersed throughout Iran (at various sites) that basically makes any attack to stamp them out ridiculous.

2)      A war with Iran is precisely what the Arabs (and Israel’s enemies) want. Israeli’s might notice that countries on the Persian Gulf like Qatar, UAE etc. (and historically also Saudi Arabia) are now much more influential than in the past. Israel might also notice that virtually every one of these nations provided billions of dollars to support Saddam Hussein’s war with Iran. They hate Iran. They hate Iranians. They have also never been truly close to Israel either. Yes, Israel shares a strategic need to get Syria partitioned with them, but that is about it. No Arab state has ever welcomed and wanted Israel present in the Middle East. Does anyone need to remind Israel of how ‘some’ European elites feel about Jews? Nothing would suit some people more than having Israel and Iran duke it out, and basically annihilate each other.  While Israel continues to make threats, there is no incentive for the Europeans (for example) to conclude negotiations with Iran on nuclear issues. They would love to stretch it out as long as possible and as a result push “Israel to take matters into its own hands”.

3)      Netenyahu will not be able to shift the political picture in the U.S. I know that Bibi (Netenyahu’s alias) is an old friend of Romney’s and would like nothing better than to do something to push Obama out of power. But realistically, a war with Iran will not accomplish that goal. First of all a war with Iran will draw in the U.S. and Americans will rally around their president – not Romney. Obama will now show weakness. Secondly, this is not 1980 and Obama is not Jimmy Carter. Obama is 7 points ahead of Romney Nationally and in key states even further ahead. Obama will get re-elected. America’s elite have a multitude of reasons to support Obama’s re-election – not the least of which is ‘Obama-care’.  As Jesse Jackson says, Obama has feigned left and jumped to the right. No one else could have shafted African Americans (and other poor demographic groups) like Obama did – by taking away their $2000 tax refunds in January and turned that into $300 to pay IRS managed health insurance premium collections – and made them believe he was working for their interests. Obama unilaterally pushed back U.S. government insolvency from 2017 to 2029. And even halved the interest payments on U.S. federal debt from $400 Billion down to $200 Billion – while adding $6 Trillion to the debt.  It’s been pure genius. And quite honestly, America needed this to deal with its severe fiscal situation.

4)     Netenyahu will not be able to shift the political picture in Israel. Yes, Netenyahu coalition government is very unpopular; AND, he faces the lowest approval rating he has ever had. The issue of “Iran” has become a lightning rod uniting his disparate coalition partners – making him look powerful and strong in the face of ‘danger from Iran’. But none of this is a panacea for his political troubles. He would be far better off focusing on getting Israel’s off shore oil and gas fields developed and bring home that revenue as fast as possible. Money – hard cash – is the true panacea to Israel’s ills; not more “war”.

5)      Netenyahu will not endear Israel to Iran. I am thinking that Netenyahu and his entourage may remember the days when Israel and Iran were strong allies. I know, I keep bumping into Israelis in the U.S. who tell me about how they used to travel to Iran and how Iran had such a great relationship with Israel. I keep getting reminded “Without Iran’s oil during the war (with the Arabs) Israel would not have made it through!” (Indeed this is one of the reasons why the Shah was toppled by Carter – who was pushed by Sadat during the Camp David meetings to get rid of one of Israel’s strongest allies.). But on a different level, Israel could very much benefit from the future transformation of Iran; and in truth Israel does NOT need more enemies now (anyway). Iranians general (whether they are pro- or anti- the regime) support Iran’s nuclear programs. The Shah after all started it. The Mullahs have only continued it. And it has become a source of Iranian pride. If the Indians or Pakistanis have it – why not Iran? To attack Iran on the basis of undermining its nuclear program will undermine whatever support Israel enjoys (even secretly) among many political sectors in Iran. Instead of building additional support – it will be completely polarizing. In the world we live in – Israel needs more friends not enemies.

6)      Israel’s threats will ring hollow, and its long-term credibility will be damaged forever. Netenyahu will become the shepherd that cried wolf! The potential for a serious body blow to Iran’s nuclear program can be discounted by the immense aeronautic feat required to do the job. This is a tough lesson many politicians simply do not appreciate – and Jimmy Carter certainly did not get it when he ordered the evacuation of the Embassy Hostages in 1980 – with failing aircraft and refueling requirements, it all ended up in shambles. Similarly, in 2012, Netenyahu is asking for multiple planes with heavy payloads to take off – go through the air space of at least 3 hostile countries (maybe more) and 1500 miles undetected, bomb some sites in Iran; then come back again – and refuel in flight – all without incident, with high accuracy. And then for Iran to sit there impotently and do nothing – with its own planes, anti-aircraft weapons and missiles. Its hair brained and risky. Just the complexity of the task – says it won’t get done. So in the end after months of hot air, Netenyahu’s threats will pass and next time he threatens anyone, it will be thought to be hollow. He will be the shepherd that cried wolf – and be eaten alive by his political opponents.

 7)      Israel needs to focus on regime change in Iran, not empty threats to Iran’s nuclear capabilities. An attack on Iran’s nuclear sites would NOT result in the exit of the current regime, and would actually have the opposite effect of galvanizing Iranians behind the regime, much like Iraq’s attack on Iran on September 22nd, 1980. It’s a distraction from what should be the primary goal, which is to replace the regime in Tehran. As long as the regime stays in power more serious nearer threats such as Hezbollah etc. will be reinforced and undermine Israel’s national security. Instead of meaningless threats, and financial support for ridiculous fringe groups that want to partition Iran like the NCRI/PMOI/MKO/MEK/MONKEYS  or Jundallah or the Kurdish Liberation Front – Israel should be focusing on helping Iranians abroad set up a credible government in exile – and develop a broad coalition that can topple this regime internally. Like in Libya or Syria. Most Iranians hate the regime – but love their country and heritage more. Do not threaten Iranian pride and dignity; use it to topple these bastards in power. The world has humored Netenyahu long enough. God knows, I have featured dozens of articles here on Iranian.com with reference to Netenyahu’s threats. Having done that though, I see Netenyahu’s emptiness a giant Liability for Israel. He needs to stop crying wolf. Mr. Netenyahu, either go in and finish the job or shut up. Since it’s pretty clear you have no intentions on invading Iran – you might be much better off zipping your mouth up. Getting Netenyahu to shut up is probably harder than a successful bombing mission to Iran – we all know that.