Intrade: 62% chance of an Obama win and a 50% chance of Air Strike on Iran before 12/13


by ayatoilet1

Intrade is an internet based prediction market. What is a prediction market? It's a market that allows you to make predictions on the outcome of hundreds of real-world events. Stock exchanges find the price of stocks, and futures markets find the price of commodities. Prediction markets find the probability of something happening - a predefined, uncertain future event.

Will the financial markets be up today? Will a certain candidate win the next election? Who will win the Academy Awards? If you have an opinion on what will happen then you can make a prediction on Intrade. Predict correctly and you can win real money profits.

An Intrade market - always YES or NO! These events are always defined on Intrade as a YES/NO proposition. For example, here are a few of the markets currently available:

•The Dow Jones to close on or above 13,000 on 30 Dec 2012

•Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012

•The United States or Israel to bomb Iran before the end of 2013

There are two possible outcomes to each of these events - yes, the event will happen as described, or no, it will not happen

And right now people are putting money on whether or not USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013: And the odds generated (automatically) by the money being invested on this happening is basically 49.9%.

Intrade is considered to be very important and generally ‘on the money’. At one time it assisted the U.S. Department of Defense in a controversial scheme (ultimately canceled) to assess probabilities of future terrorist attacks. Intrade supplies market data at significantly discounted fees or free to academics.

You can never for sure predict the future, but Intrade comes very close.


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Massoud-Jan, Thank you for commenting

by ayatoilet1 on

In my humble opinion the green movement was a scam. I am for freedome and democracy in Iran, but not led by a former Prime Minister who's hands had blood on them (Moussavi sat still while they killed thousands) and NOT by Karroubi who we all know was in Paris negotiating with George Bush senior on OCtober 10 th 1980 arranging to keep the hostages inside the U.S. embassy in Tehran to humiliate Jimmy Carter. The green movement, my friend, was fake. NOT REAL. The people's aspirations for freedome were absolutely real, but like Khomeini before them Moussavi and Karroubi where planning to derail the movement. I am sorry but that is my opinion and wrote as such at the time. They were fake opposition Yeltsin for Gorbachev. The mullahs are very shrewd. Iranians need to be much more sophisticated.

As for Obama...and Romney - Obama pnly has to win one toss-up state; Romney has to win every toss-up state. Romney can win the popular vote but lose the election. If you think I am wrong ask Al Gore, or better yet check the constitution. Obama will win! Don't worry about it.

Obama is a far better man, with a better agenda than the christian right and tea party crowd inside the Republican party - who will increasingly call the shots. I would vote for Romeny if he was a Democrat - but the Republican Party is down right evil.


So Ayat-Toilet

by masoudA on

You want the implant bozo to remain in White House?   As an Iranian don't you have any concerns about how Obama dealt with the Green Movement in Iran while standing with every Islamist expansion in the middle east?  

BTW - Gallup poll reported today - after 15% of votes in Romney is leading Obama much for your wishful thoughts and for your intrade theory.