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IRI should invade Azerbaijan
17-Dec-2011
I heard Mark Shield last night on the News Hour say clearly: “This time next year, Iran will be the major story on the News”. This is double talk for ‘who ever become president (of the US), by December next year, US (or by default Israel) will attack Iran’.
I have to say I was stunned. It’s pretty clear that there are major invasion plans in the works, and there is now a concerted plan to invade Iran in about a year. I value Mr. Shield’s commentary. I think David Brooks & Mark Shields are very sage with their observations.
If that is so, Iran needs to take pre-emptive measures now to thwart this ambition. It is NOT that I support the IRI; it’s just that I think if the “allies” invade, Iran will be cut up into pieces. An invasion today does not serve Iranian national interests no matter who is in power. I also think the invaders will likely put some idiot in charge like Maryam or Masoud Rajavi, and whatever is left of Iran will have an even worse regime than Iran has today. After simply observing all the anti-Muslim rhetoric in the U.S. after 9/11, I just can’t say I trust Americans and their allies (Britain and Israel) with Iran’s future. It is even possible that they will round up Iranians here in the U.S. and do what they did to the Japanese during World War II, and BAM …our lives here will be over. 10 years ago, before 9/11, I would have supported it, but not today.
So what should Iran or Iranians do to counter this?
There are three asymmetric moves that would seriously hinder an Iranian surrender. Everyone knows about ‘shutting down’ the straits of Hormuz (that’s not new); but two other moves would be seriously devastating for the West. One of these two would be to an invasion of Azerbaijan.
Baku, Azerbaijan’s capital is the new energy capital of the world. Three major pipelines carrying oil and gas start there and head into Turkey, Russia, and Georgia that eventually result in exports of over 3 million barrels of day of Oil and billions of cubic feet of gas per year. It is a major – non-Persian gulf – lifeline for the West; and was built specifically because of the risks associated with the Persian Gulf.
Baku is also something like 200 kilometers (150 miles) from the tip of Iran …an Iranian border town called Parsabad.
Azerbaijan has been part of Iran for many thousands of years, and most Azeri’s follow Iranian traditions. They are generally Shia Muslims like Iran. Their language includes something like 40% Persian words. They follow the Iranian Solar calendar, with New Year’s Day (No Ruz) on March 21st. You really could not be more Iranian. Language, religion, calendar, culture …are all hallmarks of defining a nation.
But because of the Oil resources in the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan has been the focus of a lot of attention by the West. The breakup of the Soviet Union provided a unique opportunity to exploit these resources, by essentially carving up Iran’s portion of the Caspian Sea into regions that could be ‘claimed’ by these newly independent (former Soviet) states. Azerbaijan asserted claims to many oil rich regions of the Caspian Sea and is now exporting Oil and Gas from those regions with the support of major western oil companies such as BP. In fact BP is ‘the’ major operator in Azerbaijan. It not only manages many oil platforms in the Caspian Sea, but more importantly controls the export pipeline systems. Azerbaijan has become the new source of oil revenue for Britain – replacing its own depleted North Sea oil resource. Azerbaijan is now of critical strategic value to the West.
Given Baku’s proximity to Iran, a military strike on Baku and by default a shutting down of these three pipelines would be a relatively simple task for Iran. Baku could be attacked by land, air and sea with a minimal Iranian force. For a battle hardened force like Iran’s IRGC, Baku would be a piece of cake. And taken in conjunction with the shutting down of the Straits of Hormuz, it would be a major blow to the oil and gas supply chain to the West.
I am sure, western strategists know all this, which is why both the U.S. and Israel – as well as “NATO” have stationed two operating bases there…under the guise of providing troop support to the Afghan campaign. Israel too has stationed troops and air support inside Azerbaijan.
But despite all the ‘foreign’ assistance, I am sure that Iran could very easily grab Baku...in a heartbeat; especially if as it appears certain, Iran develops a strategic alliance with Russia. Pressed between Russia and Iran, Azerbaijan with “all” the foreign assistance it can muster, simply will have to give in. And the end game would be a major disaster for the West.
Turkey can NOT come to its rescue easily, since Turkish troops would have to traverse a country or two to get to Azerbaijan. By the time the Turks walk in, Iran will have its prize.
The best way to win a war with the West is to be pre-emptive. It is pretty clear now that there is a systematic plan to annihilate Iran; and destroy 3000 years of history and heritage – and there are no plans to bring in a proper government in its place.
American support for the likes of the MEK/MKO/PMOI/NCRI/Monkeys scares me. American war talk scares me. American anti-Islamic rhetoric scares me. Iranians must take pre-emptive measures now. A solid invasion plan for Azerbaijan is a must….for Iran to survive. Iranians are being left with very few options.
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IRI Should go and "daresho
by Arthimis on Sun Dec 18, 2011 10:23 PM PSTIRI Should go and "daresho begzareh" Very funny...Are you kidding us?!! lol :D)
If IRI had a slightest clue and/or class on any level, it would have not dictated, imprisoned, tortured and killed unarmed Iranian citizens to begin with...
If IRI was not so ugly, backward, inferior, paranoid and fearful , it would have had a decent image worldwide and could have showed the true face & nature of Iran & Iranians to the whole world and wouldn't have been subjected to a possible attack from outside to begin with!!!
"pre-emptive strike against West by attacking a neighbor/brother country like Azerbaijan is the end of Iran as a country!!! Even Russia wouldn't accept that.... What is pretty clear now is that "IRI" and those who installed & still support it in any way are in fact the ones that have a systematic plan to annihilate Iran; and destroy (over) 3000 years of history and heritage ...
IRI hich "Ghalati" nimotoneh bokoneh va hamash baladeh Shoar bedeh...
Jomohori Eslami Be Zoodi Sarnegoon Mishavad, don't worry...
Khodaya, Iran va Iranian ra Azad kon va dar Panahat Negah- daar. Amen.
Ayatoilet1, Of course you are not Hassan Abbasi!
by Roozbeh_Gilani on Sun Dec 18, 2011 03:25 PM PSTThat guy is probably too busy trying to get himself a resident visa to canada! Of course you are anti IRI, everybody is here, apart from the few sneaky ones, who are just too shy to admit it:) . I dig you, most of the time, but sorry my friend, not this time...
cheers
"Personal business must yield to collective interest."
What?
by I despise fascists and st... on Sat Dec 17, 2011 10:30 PM PSTI don't even know if this insane proposal warrents a response. I suggest the author to apply for a job at the satire publication Onion.
Consider what you are saying.
1) Given Azarbaijan's critical importance to the West, do you think NATO will sit by and let IRI gobble up Azerbaijan?
2) Do you think Russia would acquiesce to IRI getting so close to its borders? Russia may maintain trade with IRI but she is as suspicious of mullahs' objectives as the West. Most importantly, no country would allow such a violation of international law;
3) I would like to remind the author of an event in 1990-1991, Saddam Hussein invaded a much smaller country that shared almost identical culture and laguage. The Arabic of Kuwait was 100% the same laguage spoken in Iraq. Even USSR abandoned Iraq, she was roundly condemned in the UN and it didn't take long to gather a huge multinational force to kick Iraq out of Kuwait;
4) To this day, Iraq is paying reprations to Kuwait, no matter how much the new Iraqi regime screams and whines, Iraq is subject to reprations to Kuwait;
5) Turkey shares far greater cultural and liguistic similarites with Azerbaijan than to Iran does with Azerbaijan and due to Iran's form of government, Azerbaijan and Azerbajijanis have been much closer to their Turkish brethrens than to Iranians. Turkey will not tolerate Iran's invasion of Azerbaijan, which brings me to the sixth point;
6) Turkey is many fold stronger than Iran; Turkish military possesses arms and armors that IRI can only dream of. Turks will obliterate IRI forces before they could get even reach Baku;
7) Do you realize how sourrounded IRI is? USA is in Afghanistan. Turkey is a NATO Country. In 1991, to expell Saddam from Kuwait required sending half a million soldiers and arms to Saudi Arabia. To get Iran out of Azerbaijan won't require that, troops and armors are all around Iran already;
8) Did you think other central Asian coutnries, Turkemistan, Tajikistan, Uzbakistan, Krygisan, Kazakistan would tolerate it? They will join the US and West to give Iran the whipping that even Saddam didn't get after invading Kuwait.
Thanks VPK, Much Better (More Positive) Response
by ayatoilet1 on Sat Dec 17, 2011 06:36 PM PSTYes, war is crazy. And in Iran's specific case (as I sort of aluded in the article) the Mullahs have multiple (easy) strategic options to cause real chaos. Those advocating for war need to understand the real potential consequences.
Baku these days is a critically important city in terms of energy supply. One thing that I did not mention is that Azerbaijan provides (i.e. exports) oil and gas to Israel. If Israel attacks Iran, there is no doubt in my mind that a retaliatory move by the Mullahs will be to go after Azerbaijan.
To give you a real idaa of where my head is at,for Azerbaijan, apart from the fact that Iranian oil is being stolen from the Caspian, the real solution is for a new sort of common market to be established where Iran can drive some benefit from Azerbaijan's oil revenue by selling goods and services to them. A pretext for that would be regime change in both countries (somehow). Democracy is an essential element of common market systems. Azeri's deserve their freedom too from their puppet (banana republic) dicatator ..Aliev.
Thanks VPK, Much Better (More Positive) Response
by ayatoilet1 on Sat Dec 17, 2011 06:36 PM PSTYes, war is crazy. And in Iran's specific case (as I sort of aluded in the article) the Mullahs have multiple (easy) strategic options to cause real chaos. Those advocating for war need to understand the real potential consequences.
Baku these days is a critically important city in terms of energy supply. One thing that I did not mention is that Azerbaijan provides (i.e. exports) oil and gas to Israel. If Israel attacks Iran, there is no doubt in my mind that a retaliatory move by the Mullahs will be to go after Azerbaijan.
To give you a real idaa of where my head is at,for Azerbaijan, apart from the fact that Iranian oil is being stolen from the Caspian, the real solution is for a new sort of common market to be established where Iran can drive some benefit from Azerbaijan's oil revenue by selling goods and services to them. A pretext for that would be regime change in both countries (somehow). Democracy is an essential element of common market systems. Azeri's deserve their freedom too from their puppet (banana republic) dicatator ..Aliev.
Responses
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Sat Dec 17, 2011 04:19 PM PSTWar is crazy for anyone but the weaker you are the stupider it it. America is hurting because of its stupid wars. Iran is much less wealthy and hence will pay much more for a war. No one in their right mind will start a war if it is not absolutely required.
You're not just carzy, you're also offensive, at times very
by Hooshang Tarreh-Gol on Sat Dec 17, 2011 03:43 PM PSToffensive.
Let's start with the name and the avatar. The evidences speak for themselves.
And VPK is no Israeli he's just a mainstream, Pahlavi nostalgic average guy.
You piece here has some faint potentail for a sort of a Borat type of comical skit, other than that it's pure garbage. Like your name and avatar.
Roozbeh: who is Hassan Abbasi?
by ayatoilet1 on Sat Dec 17, 2011 03:42 PM PSTWhat does he have to do with anything? is he another douche inside the IRI?
I reccomend you go to my author page and you start reading some of my historical (anti-IRI) blogs
Akh - Babak don't compare me with Trita Parsi (it hurts)
by ayatoilet1 on Sat Dec 17, 2011 03:40 PM PSTParsi actually is against any sort of action against the IRI. I am absolutely for taking the Mullahs out...
But to respond to your cooment: Somehow its not NUTS or CRAZY for there to be constant talk of an Iran invasion; BUT (according to you guys) it us NUTS or CRAZY to talk about Iran retaliating!! its hyporacy.
Aren;t you sick of all this talk of war, of invasions, of anti-muslim rhetoric in the U.S? you swith the TV on and its the presidential debate and the only foreign policy issue is Iran; you read google news and the headline yesterday was Lowe's pulling their ads off TLC during a program about Muslims in America; you watch the news on PBS and its analysis about the war with Iran in a year.
I am sick of it, People saying all this have no idea how messy a war with Iran will be. They are the crazy ones. Not me.
VPK - Go Tell Your fellow Israelis that they are nuts - Not me
by ayatoilet1 on Sat Dec 17, 2011 03:37 PM PSTSomehow its not NUTS or CRAZY for there to be constant talk of an Iran invasion; BUT (according to you guys) it us NUTS or CRAZY to talk about Iran retaliating!! its hyporacy/
You guys are the crazy ones - not me.
Aren;t you sick of all this talk of war, of invasions, of anti-muslim rhetoric in the U.S? you swith the TV on and its the presidential debate and the only foreign policy issue is Iran; you read google news and the headline yesterday was Lowe's pulling their ads off TLC during a program about Muslims in America; you watch the news on PBS and its analysis about the war with Iran in a year.
I am sick of it, People saying all this have no idea how messy a war with Iran will be. They are the crazy ones. Not me.
You MIssed the Point Altogether
by ayatoilet1 on Sat Dec 17, 2011 03:35 PM PSTSomehow its not NUTS or CRAZY for there to be constant talk of an Iran invasion; BUT (according to you guys) it us NUTS or CRAZY to talk about Iran retaliating!! its hyporacy/
You guys are the crazy ones - not me.
Aren;t you sick of all this talk of war, of invasions, of anti-muslim rhetoric in the U.S? you swith the TV on and its the presidential debate and the only foreign policy issue is Iran; you read google news and the headline yesterday was Lowe's pulling their ads off TLC during a program about Muslims in America; you watch the news on PBS and its analysis about the war with Iran in a year.
I am sick of it, People saying all this have no idea how messy a war with Iran will be. They are the crazy ones. Not me.
This is nuts
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Sat Dec 17, 2011 10:41 AM PSTIran with any government should not invade Azarbayjan. This is insane just as Saddam invading Kuwait was. For one it gives the enemies of Iran reason to attack as happened with Saddam. It is plain out really stupid.
It is begging for disaster and reason to remove any leader giving such order. Reason: dangerous insanity. Next put the person away in a nice padded cell.
Warning: this section is somewhat tounge in cheek. If you really want to make life hard for Azarbayjan it has to be done right. The "right" was will be to prompt Armenia to renew its war and watch it. Then when things are really tough step in "to mediate" a truce :-) With Iranian peacekeeping troops ....
Ayatoilet 1. Now more and
by Babak K. on Sat Dec 17, 2011 09:56 AM PSTAyatoilet 1.
Now more and more you show that you are another Trita Passsi. Your article is so stupid that does not desreve an answer, but one thing is more obvious to answer, and you wrote:
"Their language includes something like 40% Persian words"
Well,
What percent of Farsi include Arabic words?
آیا توالت!
FaramarzSat Dec 17, 2011 09:45 AM PST
دیشب مثل اینکه شام سنگینی خورده بودی که این افکار تو خواب به سرت زد!
معذرت میخوام ولی واقعا دیوانه هستید
KhersSat Dec 17, 2011 09:38 AM PST
به جای ساختن و پیشرفت کشورتون همینطور به فکر جنگ طلبی، تروریست بازی و عربده کشی باشید. ۳۲ سال است که کارتون همینه.
ریدم به این فرهنگ!
پانوشت: هیچ کس، نه غرب، نه شرق، نه شمال و نه جنوب آخوند را سر کار آورد. فرهنگ آشغال خودمون (که این بلاگ شما نشانه واضح آن است) آخوند را سر کار آورد.
While I agree with some of Ayatoilet’s blog…
by Bavafa on Sat Dec 17, 2011 08:20 AM PSTThis is not one of them. Stupid (pardon my frankness) idea, I may say. First, an attack on Iran is not imminent, never mind an invasion? And a hostile act against another sovereign nation by Iran is the best excuse AND legitimacy that the West is searching for and it is needed for their malicious plan for Iran. It will unite the world against Iran in such way that no one else could even dream of. Finally committing an illegal war to preempt another illegal war is just as wrong. The expression of you can wash blood with blood comes to mind.
Finally, I agree with HTG that the best path is the overthrow of IRI by Iranians, but I distinguish this NOT necessarily as a result of a conflict with the West and to their benefit/wishes, but for the sake, wish and future of Iranians.
'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory
Mehrdad
RG: I Think you are
by vildemose on Sat Dec 17, 2011 07:46 AM PSTRG: I Think you are right. He is called "Kissinger of Islam"..
A state of war only serves
as an excuse for domestic tyranny.
Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
Born December 11, 1918
ayatoilet Hassan Abbasi!
by Roozbeh_Gilani on Sat Dec 17, 2011 07:07 AM PSTI have for some time suspected that Ali Khaamenei's chief strategist had been contributing to this site, now I have no doubts.
Go "Doctor" abbasi, Go!
"Personal business must yield to collective interest."
I started reading it with a smile, and it has some funny bits
by Hooshang Tarreh-Gol on Sat Dec 17, 2011 06:39 AM PSTHoushang - Did you laugh?
by ayatoilet1 on Sat Dec 17, 2011 06:18 AM PSTIf you laughed, it was funny! If not, it was a serious piece. Your choice.
But I will say this, the main cause of problems is the "West"; not the "IRI". These motherf*ckers put the mullahs in power, just like they put Aliev in power in Azerbaijan. In Persian: "In dozda redan be zendegiye Ironiha va Azariha, Va daem baramoon naghshe mikeshan."
The really funny part, is that Mark Shields knew yesterday, what was going to happen in a year!! Please laugh, laugh you head off!! Funny isn't it?
Sanity should invade your brain, if you have any
by Hooshang Tarreh-Gol on Sat Dec 17, 2011 06:07 AM PSTWhat kind of a garbage is this? Is this suppose to be humorous? We're not amused? The best way to prevent war or any other type of foreign intervent in Iran is to: OVERTHROW ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF HELL. Since its the main cause of all the problems in Iran.
Exactly
by BacheShirazi on Sat Dec 17, 2011 05:23 AM PSTI see so many people on this site who want the west to invade Iran. The west has its own interests in mind. If they invade Iran they will make Iran subservient to the west. Regime change through western intervention is a horrible idea.