Syria is the ultimate test for a proxy war in Iran

Balatarin
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ayatoilet1
by ayatoilet1
03-Sep-2012
 

The importance of the battle to topple Assad in Syria is not simply to change the strategic make up in Damascus, or to set up a path for new pipeline feeds from Qatar or Israel for Turkey’s Nabucco pipeline to Europe. No, the real “experiment” if you will, is can a rebel led battle against a well-armed and supported incumbent dictatorships succeed – with careful support from “behind”?
This test succeeded in Libya. In Egypt, this concept was never really tested …since the Military actually held all the cards in toppling Mubarak.

But in Iran, the results of this test are key. It would simply cost too much money and too much blood for Western soldiers to invade and occupy Iran. It’s simply NOT practical given America’s experience in Iraq and Afghanistan. A multi-pronged, rebel led invasion by Iranians on Iranians, would be the way to do it.

Of course, such a fight would have to result in rebels getting some sort of reward for all their effort. What might this reward be? Well, let’s look at what is happening in Syria to get some clues.

First of all we are looking at Syria getting carved up into 3 states. It’s unclear right now if that means a federal arrangement, or three separate nations with separate governments.

Secondly, we are looking at the formation of a Western Kurdistan that will transship oil and gas from Northern Iraq (Central Kurdistan) with a new pipeline to Turkey. Iraqi Kurds are already making independent deals with western oil companies for their oil – separate from the Central Government’s control of all hydrocarbon resources.

Since this is a rebel led war, there is NO formal requirement for major power swords to be drawn. What I mean by that, is, the Russian military is not landing in Syria to thwart off a foreign invasion of Syria – its ally. The battle is seen as an internal affair, not a foreign invasion. This concept is legally brilliant and avoids the escalation of the battle to a global war.

So as we look at the Syrian model, we realize that basically if the rebels succeed. It will be the model used to topple the regime in Tehran. Simultaneous invasions from Northern Iraqi Kurds, Ahwazi from the other side of the Persian Gulf, Azeris in Azerbaijan, Baluchis in Pakistan and Turkmens will mean a 5 front internal war in Iran – with maybe a band of MEK/NCRI/PMOI/MKO/MONKEYS thrown into Tehran to form a 6th internal battle front – with air support from Israel to back it all up. This is the likely scenario in Iran.

And what will come out of all this? A carve up of the country I am sure. There will NOT be an Iran –for you to call yourself and Iranian-American.

Balatarin
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ayatoilet1

KeyvanJ - Your Analysis is NOT bad...but here's mine...

by ayatoilet1 on Tue Sep 04, 2012 06:07 PM PDT

I actually think the end game for Syria is an Israeli invasion of Lebanon - with Syria basically too impotent to act. The Israelis, remember, are trying to get Iran scared enough, and distracted enough to NOT even bother with setting up a support system in Lebanon -- that is why they keep saying they will attack Iran and are wrecking havoc in Syria.

Its all about getting Iran to split its defense investment into 3 parts - defending itself, supporting Syria and then with whatever time and money is left over throwing a bone at Hezbollah. By doing this, they are weakening Hezbollah indirectly and then setting the stage for an unimpeded attack of Lebanon.

And Syria will be too weak to interfere too.

There is still bad blood in Israel after their defeat by Hezbollah some years ago; and from an economic standpoint, Israel badly wants to run a pipeline from its Levant Gas fields to Turkey's Nabucco Pipeline for gas exports to Europe. Nabucco pipeline right now has only 35% of its rated capacity in supply from Azerbaijan etc. That tells you something.

Its Lebanon next.  

 


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keyvanj

It seems a holy war

by keyvanj on Tue Sep 04, 2012 05:00 AM PDT

It seems a holy war scenario is brewing in Syria and will soon make the chaos in Iraq and Afghanistan look like childs play.. Jihadists being shipped into Turkey and Jordan from as far away as Africa, Asia and Russia on NATO C-130 and trained by Brit and NATO special forces  

 Iran also doing its part and Shiites from Bahrain, Iran, Iraq being thrown into the fray. I think a rather hellish scenario is brewing. Recent footage of men being burnt on crufixes (Alawites=shiite=Christian according to the jihadi imports) should convince even the most hardened skeptic. 

A similar scenario happening in Iran with MKO leading the battle with US-Israeli air-support (from behind) seems unlikely. Iranians seem far too sophisticated to fall for it. Best case scenario in the short term is to weaken Syria to the point where it is too busy chasing around foreign jihadis and running low on ammo to retaliate in any meaningful way to a strike on Iran.


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Soosan Khanoom

That is what I call the sneaky imperialism !!!

by Soosan Khanoom on Mon Sep 03, 2012 08:19 AM PDT

Since the fall of Ottman Empire middle east has not seen a day in peace!! Same with Africa.  To this add  THE kosher factor then ' boom ' !!! The equation solved. No need for head scratching!! Only a fool can't see this.  

It is sad to see that once again the quest of ordinary people for democracy has been hijacked and turned to the quest of extremists for yet another type of dictatorship and for sure worse.  

' Divide and Rule 'and never let anything else to happen.  All thanks to that kosher factor..by the way, how one says, 'thanks' in Hebrow?  


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MaryamJoon

Exactly ... & 100% accurate

by MaryamJoon on Mon Sep 03, 2012 04:53 AM PDT

And i will add the reason you see such movements masquerading under different labels all over the internet (including some on this site) is to try to lessen the Iranian nation's resistance to separatist movements and civil war, by misrepresenting their true intentions, long enough for those phenomenons to gain a foothold and become irreversible.  If foreign powers are going to feed Iranians some poison, they're first going to coat it in a bit of chocolate.  Be careful of every 'human rights' truffle you're offered: They might not all have the sweet creamy center you were hoping for.

Assad might be a lame leader - maybe even downright corrupt and arrogant, but he celebrates Christmas ... look at the people they want to replace him with: Guys in hoods that are beheading and crucifying others (literally).  They've already declared that their next target is the Syrian-Kurds and Syrian-Armeians after Assad falls.   


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