ayatoilet1

Yesterday, Russia’s giant Gazprom (in Partnership with France’s Total) placed the highest bid on Israel’s Leviathan oil and gas fields. If they win their bid, and there is every indication that they will, this means the end for Assad, and a complete remapping of the region. More importantly this means Syrians and Iranians will get f**ked.

In case you did not know, this sudden urge to topple Assad all started when Israel decided that they needed a customer for their newly discovered off-shore gas fields. Israel’s Leviathan Oil and Gas fields are the largest field discoveries of recent times.  But, the fields are useless unless Israel can get the product to market. So Israel has been planning to put a massive pipeline from Haifa to Turkey’s Nabucco Pipeline and thus become a gas supplier to Western Europe.

To do this, Israel has been preparing a massive invasion of Lebanon, the creation of a 50 mile buffer zone along the Israel/Lebanon border (to further secure the fields, because much of the underground resource is right on the border with Lebanon), and along with this invasion, defeat of its old rival Hezbollah. Israel has been working with the “West” to also break up of Syria and create three new nations within Syria including a Kurdish region, a Sunni Region in the South and a swatch along the Mediterranean for the ethnically separate Alawites where the pipeline will traverse on its way to Turkey.

The problem with this plan is that if Israel started selling gas to the Western Europeans, then Russia’s market for its own gas would be substantially affected. Gazprom, the Russian state gas company, already has Europe wrapped around its little finger. Russia currently supplies 34% of Europe’s gas needs, and when Russia’s under-construction South Stream pipeline starts operating, that percentage will increase.

The Europeans did not mind supporting Israel’s plans, because they never really wanted to depend on Russia as their sole gas supplier anyway. The Russians after all have a reputation for ruthless pricing and even cutting off their clients if they don’t pay (like the Ukrainians a few years ago in the middle of winter).

The Europeans supported Israel’s plans and had delegated the task of breaking up Syria to the Turks. And the Turks were happy to oblige, because after all they would be getting the transmission business. 

The Russians smelt a rat, and forcefully supported Assad, and so far they have been very good at enabling Assad’s regime resistance to armed opposition residing across the Syria-Turkey border.

Oh, and by the way, Gas demand in Western Europe is slated to go up significantly; because France is planning to decommission virtually all of its nuclear power plants within the next 10 years and will be replacing them with Natural Gas fired power stations.

Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin, my friends, has now become an Energy Tsar - In the truest of ways. His oil company Rosneft, this year became the largest producer of oil in the world, pumping out 5 million barrels a day. And Putin’s gas company Gazprom is also slated to become the world’s largest natural gas supplier. Putin has learnt how to play in the energy Business. And he has cemented his power base in Russia to a point where he is basically untouchable. Putin rose to power and dominance by simply grabbing all his competitor’s assets.  Rosneft, was once a very small oil producer – but through a steady process of imprisoning heads of other privately owned Oil companies in Russia, Rosneft has now become massive – I mean huge!!

Putin realized that the “west” had made up its mind that Assad would go; and that the Israeli’s were hell bent on building that pipeline to Turkey. Facing a massive strategic defeat, he made a bold move. He partnered with France’s Total Oil Company, and persuaded Israel to sell their massive Leviathan fields to Russia’s Gazprom! Voila!! Done!!

Russia now has an interest in Israel’s energy, and could maintain its ‘control’ of Europe’s gas supply. Russia would retain pricing control.  All Putin has to do now is deliver Assad’s head on a plate to the world. Without Russian support, Assad is dead.

The Europeans, i.e. the French are happy too, because if they pay higher prices as customers they can make it back in profits from partnering with the Russians.

And clearly, Israel is ecstatic. They get all this money upfront for their fields. Leave the Russians to make all the critical investments. They can do what the Brits did in the North Sea Oil fields, which is to tax oil and gas production once the hydrocarbons start flowing. And they prevent what was looking like a huge bloodbath next door in Syria. Israel becomes completely self-sufficient in terms of energy, and has a new major source of export income.

And Iran is simply left out in the cold. Iran was planning to connect to Turkey’s Nabucco pipeline too. But that capacity will now be reserved for Israel. And quite frankly, the Russians now have NO incentive at all to allow Iran to export any oil or gas.  The world’s market for Oil is still a buyer’s market, and the Russians need to constrain supply to maintain high oil prices. And on the gas side, they absolutely do NOT want Iran interfering in selling gas to the Europeans.  So the Russians have every reason to simply throw Iranians under a bus too. Let the Mullahs stay in charge for another 30 or so years, keep Iran sanctioned and isolated. And above all keep selling Iran high priced Nuclear Power plants to scare the whole world into increasing sanctions further.

This is how the world works my dear friends. Gazprom will be in control of Europe’s gas, Rosneft will be in control of its oil. This means that in effect a red hand stretching out from Russia will strangle the supremacy of the West and pave the way for a new world order– one with Russia at the helm. In this scenario, Russia could choke off supply to raise prices. Putin could play oil- and gas-needy nations off one another, forcing European nations to commit to long-term, high-priced contracts if they want secure supplies.

Also in this process, suddenly, Israel and Arab Oil and Gas producers’ (such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE’s) strategic interests align. There is even talk of Qatar tapping into the Turkish pipeline via Iraq. And the Kurds too apparently want to tap in.

The Mullahs in Iran for sure will be left out in the cold; and their surrogates Hezbollah will get decimated.  Syrians will not be able to step in and protect Hezbollah either. Both Syrians and Iranians will get f**ked.

PS: Notice how Israel’s tone these past few days against Iran has softened. I think the Mullahs have quietly, secretly agreed to this plan too. They (the Mullahs) will quietly retreat and pull the rug from under Hezbollah and Assad very soon…if they want to stay in power.  The mullahs are thinking,  so what if Iranians get f**ked, they can still eat their Chello-Kebab and bonk more sigheh’s, right!!  Notice by the way recent press reports that claim Iran has reduced its level of subsidies to Hezbollah recently.

PPS: Notice how the Emir of Qatar just made a trip to Gaza to buy off Hamas that was until recently also an arm of Iranian and Hezbollah resistance to Israel.

PPPS: Once elections in U.S. and Israel are wrapped up. And Assad’s head rolls. Watch out for Israel’s move into Lebanon – likely spring next year!! We had an Arab Spring this year, next year it will be an Israeli Spring.

PPPPS: Where is America in all this? Obama and Hillary have decided to stay out of this mess. Let the Russians f**k the Europeans. They could not care less. They have decided that as long as Israel is okay, America doesn’t need to worry! But I believe this view point is completely wrong. This sort of neutrality will only encourage Putin and create a bigger monster that the U.S. will have to deal with later….at a very high cost. Remember Saddam Hussein, you cannot ignore evil forever.

PPPPPS: Putin was shrewd enough to give BP a 20% stake in Rosneft! Was it really Putin who schemed up this plan to bring in the French and buy Israel’s fields … Or was it some wiz-kid from London? (Brits have their hand in everything, No?) And Putin, too, just awarded Exxon-Mobil the largest oil field licenses in Siberia.  Putin knows where is bread is buttered, - and I am sure it’s not in Tehran.