Iran at a crossroad

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Iran at a crossroad
by David ET
24-Jun-2009
 

Tuesday June 23, 2009 AM

It is a fact that the people's movement within the past two months have caught Mir Hossein Mousavi by surprise. The bloody crackdowns, murders and arrests showed the naked truth about the nature of the Islamic Regime , its supreme leaders Ayatollah Khamenei, its president Ahmadinejad, its Guardian Council, its Parliament, its supporting clergy, its Basijee forces, its revolutionary Guards as well as its media. Anyone who may have had any remaining doubts about the nature of this regime now is assured that the Islamic regime in Iran is a full military dictatorship wrapped in empty slogans under a façade of a republic which has no hesitance in murdering its own people in order to maintain power. By uniting Iranians to vote, the opposition, using regime's own claim to a republic, attempted to bring about a change which ultimately resulted in an end of any more claim to an Islamic democracy in Iran. In this process Iranian again realized the power of unity and a mass movement.

While Mr. Mousavi had been waiting for the results of Guardian Council decision and Hashemi Rafsanjani's behind the scene efforts to remove the supreme leader from power, Mr. Rafsanjani has not publically made any comments since the election. However any such unnecessary delays will only result in the regime gaining upper hand as well as loosing the public momentum and coherence.

Mr. Mousavi must either immediately and actively lead the movement to a general strike and a true non-violent civil disobedience with the goal of stopping the economic machine of the Islamic Republic or he should officially pull out! Any new attempts to sporadically send unarmed youth in front of armed militias as has been happening in the past couple of days are nothing but adventurism resulting in unnecessary loss of lives and more arrests. As long as the peaceful mass demonstrations in 100s of thousands could be maintained such calls to march can be the right move but the recent calls to show up in the same known spots! without any specific planning while the military and Basijees are awaiting to crush people no longer serve any tactical or strategic purposes.

At this point the Islamic Republic System as a whole with all its mighty force has stopped in front of the Iranian people and as much as Mr. Mousavi still has his beliefs in such system, he must also realize that the election is over. The results were announced and although it was not necessary to waste another precious 7 days to know the answer, its Guardian Council as expected has approved the results.

Mr. Mousavi has a choice to make: to accept the system with all its flaws and remain within it as an opposition which in that case he will be dealt with by the regime sooner or later as those before him have or to accept the reality and rely on the power of people who have given him his historical status and to call for an all out National Strike and removal of Khamenei from power.

Mr. Mousavi is no longer a presidential candidate and the elections are over and Ahmadinejad is the president as a result of a electional coup supported by Khamenei and a full military crackdown.

As for Iranian people there still seem to be a lack of leadership and if the efforts of Mousavi, Rafsanjani and alike do not reach any results , with the lack of true leadership that exists any more encouragement of unarmed Iranians to face the armed forces of Islamic regime will only result in unnecessary bloodshed without any specific gains. At this stage anymore such calls without strategic planning are nothing but adventurism that result in unnecessary crackdown, arrests, injuries and death. Continuance of the status quo and adventurism also play in to the traps of the same old usual opportunists of different camps from ultra right to the left who have again come out of the woodwork trying to take advantage of the situation for their self-serving gains.

Short of the success of the efforts within the system to remove Khamenei from power, a lasting national Strike combined with non-violent civil disobedience are the only remaining civil tools that are available to Iranian nation. The elections are over.

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David ET

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by David ET on Sat Mar 06, 2010 04:53 AM PST

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Jaleho

by AliGeda (not verified) on Thu Jun 25, 2009 07:03 AM PDT

Jaleho,

If the rich kids in the northern Tehran want to hold hands and do whatever, if they are willing to DIE for that Right, then you better keep your mouth shot.
You truly think that's the problem and it's the reason for their unrest, then you have shown the level of your knowledge about Iran and people in general.

At this time, Khamenei, Mojtaba and Ahmadi must go so the regime would be able to survive.


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Jaleho

David said and Bijan agreed!!

by Jaleho on Thu Jun 25, 2009 05:27 AM PDT

David said:"Mr. Mousavi must either immediately and actively lead the movement to a general strike and a true non-violent civil disobedience with the goal of stopping the economic machine of the Islamic Republic..."

And Bijan agreed: "Your points well taken and I am whole heartedly in support of your call for General strike, or whatever it takes to bring the wheel of this criminal government to a screaching halt. "

This is what happens when people think their personal feelings and the garbage that CNN and FOX feed them has a real base, and become totally delusional by fixating on Karim Sadjadpour and Abas Milan's green ties on American TV!!

Call for strike among who??!! There are some frustrated university kids and norther Tehran rich who legitimately are tired of not being able to hold their girlfriend's hands in public, going to parties in a normal fashion, or wearing a hot garbage in summer. Every election they get a chance to pour out their frustration, and this time a megalomaniac ass in the form of Mousavi and the injured ego of his wife with the help of foreign media are making a twitter revolt! And some rioters who are dime a dozen everywhere in the world are burning people's shop too. Yet, with ALL of the media hysteria to pull a Victor Yushchenko out of Mousavi and his hurt ego, they were not even able to create a 1/3 of a Rodney King RIOT!!

Mousavi has been dreaming of strike all along, but he knows well that those who actually run the economy of the country, the city workers, Bazaris, and the factory workers will never heed to his call for strike for a good reason: THOSE PEOPLE VOTED FOR Ahmadinejad!!

The university students can quit their "jobs" and shout for a while and CNN can blow it out of proportion, but even the students will get tired afetr a while and they ask their mommas for a hot chocolate and more sleep after few days!


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Problem is today Iran is

by raminthejamin (not verified) on Wed Jun 24, 2009 09:28 PM PDT

Problem is today Iran is clearly divided.
Anyone going on strike can be replaced.
We do not have the support of 99% of population as we did in 1979.

I fear victory by either side.


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an idea....

by maziar058 (not verified) on Wed Jun 24, 2009 07:18 PM PDT

how about CINEMA REX II ? this time inside the majlis khebreghan....?


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Bijan A M

Dear David

by Bijan A M on Wed Jun 24, 2009 04:47 PM PDT

Your points well taken and I am whole heartedly in support of your call for General strike, or whatever it takes to bring the wheel of this criminal government to a screaching halt.

First and foremost would be the oil industry which should be shut down by any means possible. Terror in this industry was what they used to overthrow shah. You can't stop these murderers without losing blood. Assasination of political leaders is not the answer. As you well pointed out there is desparate need for emegence of leaders who can capitalise on peoples outpouring to deliver the fatal blow.

You probably are in a better position to know how we (the opposition in exile) can contribute to the success of the movement.

Let us know. I sincerely appreciate everything you are doing.

Regards


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David ET

Just a note that

by David ET on Wed Jun 24, 2009 04:07 PM PDT

 

I wrote this yesterday morning and posted it in few places such as Daily Kos, my blogs etc and sent to Iranian.com as an article since I thought it is an important issue. After waiting 36 hours due to urgency of matter and more bloodshed I posted it as a blog.

In fact I have been thinking about it, after Khamenei's ultimatum and the seeing the all out cruel crackdown of the regime and instructions by Mousavi camp and others to continue doing the same thing!

I think any blood that may have been spilled in Baharestan today (in front of the Parliament) was unnecessary, pointless and very much expected and that is why I wrote this and also sent it to Tehran (along with a Google translator) yesterday.

Just sending unarmed innocent people without any plans in front of the armed forces whom are awaiting to beat, shoot and kill makes no sense.

People's good emotions and forces should not be wasted or used like this and at this point that regime has decided to attack full force, I am extremely concerned about the adventurous tactics of past few days that is staring to play in to the power struggles as well as opportunists.

I am very much against people getting hurt unnecessarily. 


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David ET

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by David ET on Wed Jun 24, 2009 06:10 PM PDT

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Artificial Intelligence

You are correct David

by Artificial Intelligence on Wed Jun 24, 2009 02:56 PM PDT

Iranian blood should not be spilled for a leaderless organization/Cause. It is a very sad and hopeless situation.  It does not seem to me that there is a strong enough movement from within that wants to destroy this evil system. There are to many who are dependent on this system and are scared to see it collapse completely (Rafsanjani being one of them). People who were arguing that the IRI can change from within in a peaceful manner are 100% wrong. The IRI can not change from within under the current system. Period.

We all (except for a few agitators here) can see that the IRI is not a democracy, has never been a democracy and is more like a military dictatorship than anything else. We also saw how Iranians openly feel about this government and system. 

If The Ahmadinejad/Mesbah Yazdi camp (Hojatieh) take over, which seems likely, the IRI will look more like the Shiite version of the Taliban in the near future. This is the true tragedy. 


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