Results of Our Mock Election

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Results of Our Mock Election
by eroonman
12-Jun-2009
 

After a rigorous 2 weeks that the polls were open on the Mock Iranian.com Election, here are the results.

This election unlike the Iranian election was not conducted by the Iranian Government, the votes were not counted by the Iranian Government and the results are not being announced by the Iranian Government.

This election was conducted entirely by an independent 3rd party. To that end it is arguably, a more reliable result than that being announced by the Iranian Government.

So imagine how invalid the Iranian Government election has to be, if it is being trumped by this one!

OK, enough tomfoolery.

WINNER Mir-Hossein Mousavi 46.0%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (incumbant) 13.0%
Mehdi Karrubi 8.0%
Mohsen Rezaee 3.0%
Write in Candidates Combined 30.0%


Details of the Write In Candidates:

No One 4%
Reza Pahlavi 4%
Abbas Amir Entezam 2%
Jahanshah Javid 2%
Parviz Kardan 1%
Khatami 1%
Nader Shah 1%
Hadi Khorsandi 1%
George W. Bush 1%
Googoosh 1%
Donkey, 1%
Monkey 1%
Micky Mouse 1%

* The remaining 7% was made up of miscellaneous profanity strewn write-ins each less than 1% of the vote and too rude to publish.

Additional feedback was gathered after the election, as an exit survey the following was asked.

How Do You Rate the Official Iranian Presidential Election?

Do the Choices Represent of The People's Will?

16.7% Agree
17.9% Somewhat Agree
17.9% Somewhat Disagree
47.6% Disagree

Are the Results Verifiable and Trustworthy?

16.7% Agree
35.7% Somewhat Agree
15.5% Somewhat Disagree
32.1% Disagree

Guardian Council Should Choose the Candidates

11.0% Agree
2.4% Somewhat Agree
9.8% Somewhat Disagree
76.8% Disagree

Allows the Best Candidate to Run for President

27.7% Agree
10.8% Somewhat Agree
10.8% Somewhat Disagree
50.6% Disagree

How Would You Improve the Official Presidential Election?

"By throwing out the Islamic Republic and replacing it with a democracy"

"By removing Islamic Republic from the face of the planet"

"Until the Iranian constitution has been completely revamped based on International declaration of human rights no elections is valid!"

"Not doing it at all. It is an improvement over this."

"Limit the power of the supreme leader and guardian council."

"by suggesting a secular separation of Religion from State"

شخصا جمهوری اسلامی را منحل و انتخابات جدیدی برای انتخاب شکل آینده حکومت در ایران توسط مردم انجام میدهم. بیشتر از ۷۰% مردم ایران وقتی‌ که جمهوری اسلامی به عنوان نوع حکومت در ایران "برگزیده" شد، هنوز به دنیا نیامده بودند. به این نسل جوان باید حق انتخاب داد.

"have Lebanon's different terrorist groups (like hizbollah) to also vote..."

"Eventually we should have a secular democracy in Iran. In the meanwhile we should take advantage of what is available to us at this time. That is the only way we can bring change. Please vote!"

"by overthrowing the islamic republic"

"I'd scrap the entire system completely and replace it with a true democracy that provides real freedom of choice and real oppostion to take part under a secular system."

"GET RID OF THE THEOCRACY THATS HOW!"

"Abolish the Guardian Council"

"Throw out the leader and the guardian council and allow for a free and verifiable election with the presence of international bodies for monitoring."

"This is not a free election. Iran should allow multiple parties and multiple candidates based on a runoff system."

"By taking down the Islamic Republic!"

"abolish the fascist regime and establish a free and democratic republic."

"down with vf dictatorship! down with Khomeini! long live Jebhe Melli Iran! long live Mossadegh!"

هر کی ریده دور دوم باید انتخاب بشه و خودش گندش را درست کنهi

"No Islamic Republic"

"Get rid of the Guardian Council, get rid of ethnic nationality and religious requirements."

Demographics:

Female 33.7%
Male 66.3%

Age:

0-18 2.3%
19-25 15.1%

26-35 27.9%


36-45 19.8%


46-55 25.6%

56-65 7.0%
65-75 0.0%
75 2.3%

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eroonman

To Rosie

by eroonman on

I know.

The point is, he can't. 

No one can. In a normal society this is supposed to cause outrage.

I guess in ours it just causes quiet mutterings.

We now have to spend the whole weekend wondering how on earth we are going to explain all this to our American friends on Monday. Maybe that's why they announced today, Saturday.

This is one of the few times, I actually hate being Iranian.


eroonman

Access to the data of the MOCK election

by eroonman on

Since there was an entirely valid and politely veiled question of trust, here is the complete access to the data.

As yet another example of how much better than the actual Iranian election this insignificant one was, you will actually be able to see each vote that was cast.

Here are some facts to keep in mind when you look at the data:

1- This is a statistical sample. Think of it like one polling station in the Northern elite suburbs of Tehran. It probably does not represent the unwashed masses that typically support Ahmadinejad.

2. The sample is based on 100 votes. Before you assume it isn't, this is statistically a valid sample. As hard as it may sound, if your sample is realistically made up of a good group of folks, there really isn't any difference between 100 or 100,000 responses. I think it's less than 0.01% off. But you can think of it like the polliing station closing after a set time, regardless of if there are people still waiting outside to vote. This happens in a real election all the time. Ballots run out, or time expires. So even a real election has limited voting capacity and does not reflect every single eligible person's opinion.

3. This Mock election was conducted by an independent 3rd party service called appropriately I think, Surveymonkey.com. This is different and more honest than the Ministry of Interior conducting the election in Iran. If I still have to explain why, then I give up.

4. Since there was a claim made by Q, a right I agree that Q has in this democracy experiment we are conducting, access to the data is being given immediately upon request. This too is a far cry from what Iran does. Even if a request from Moussavi is made to examine the results, there is no independent 3rd party in Iran who can give him clean data to his satisfaction.

What he will receieve, if he has the courage to demand it, from his hiding place, is "CLEANED" data.

To analyse the exact data and see the results of the Mock election, please visit:

Surveymonky.com

Login: iran

Password: iran


rosie is roxy is roshan

uh..eroonman,.

by rosie is roxy is roshan on

Now go do the same for the real one

 

he.is.erooonman,.he.is,..maybe.not.on.this.thread,.but.on.others. 

that's.exactly.what.he's.been.trying.to.do


eroonman

For Q: This is Exactly What you should be doing...

by eroonman on

I love your demands for openenss and transparency.

Good for you! You are rightly questioning my claims as the entity anouncing the Mock Election results.

You are demanding to see the data.

You are very astutely analyzing the claimed polling sample logic, and looking for proof from me, other than the stated.

This is wonderful, and I applaud you for it.

Now go do the same for the real one.


rosie is roxy is roshan

oh,.ps.ali,

by rosie is roxy is roshan on

this.post.to.q.here.would.be.hard.to.understand.because.it.has.

all.kinds.of.references.to.things.we.talked.about.before,.but.

one.that's.very.clear.is.the.one.I.wrote.to.YOU.on.Samsam's.

thread..although.i.have.to.admit.it's.already.a.bit..shall.we.say..

dated?


rosie is roxy is roshan

it's.not.a.style,.my.space.bar's.broken..

by rosie is roxy is roshan on

and.i.couldn't.get.it.fixed.right.away...and.it's.really.not.any.harder.

to.read.than.things.iike.the.stock.market.pages.on.hard.copy.

newspapers,.say..but.people.manage..so.just.pretend.it's.about.

money.and.you'll.do.just.fine..lol


Ali P.

To: Rosie

by Ali P. on

I hope you won't shoot the messenger, but I am sure many, like me, can't read what the heck you are saying.

 

What's up with this new style?


Q

Allow me to repeat myself

by Q on

since you appreantly didn't read my first post.

If you understand anything about demographics and statistics, you would know that you are not drawing from a representative sample of the Iranian electorate. Don't be silly. This poll is at best only a representative of the populations that had access to it on Iranian.com.

And

How many people voted?

Now, you do say this about representative sample, which again I have to assume is a joke.

that is never going to be provable, not because this data is unavaialble from comparison, but becasue you are assuming the Iranian data is valid. Again, since the government controls that data, their claim of their sample is far more prone to bias and is more suspect than this data.

Do you understand how polling works? They must draw a representative sample and they do so among many dimensions of compatibility: for exampl that 50% of the sample is female, 40% rural, 10% college degrees etc. matched up with the population. That's why there are thousands of accurate polls that consistently predict the outcome reliably.

The government doesn't control the data from YOUR participants Are you kidding me?

You are welsome to make claims about your various standards of counting after you disclose how many people voted, and you give the direct link to the "3rd party" results page that tallied it.


Jaleho

BiG BOY, that was the BEST election post EVER!!

by Jaleho on

"Reza Pahlavi got more than donkey, monkey, and Micky Mouse...excellent! "

 It is triple funny if you consider that he got that EVEN at Iranian.com cafe :-) :-) Guess that was due to Darius Kadivar and hoozesh.


rosie is roxy is roshan

excuse.me,.eroonman,.would.you.mind.if.i...

by rosie is roxy is roshan on

asked.you.what.what.professon.you're.in.and.what.kind.of.degrees.you.

have.because.the.kind.of.language.you.use.to.explain.the.poll.sounds.

so..professional..it.makes.me.wonder...


eroonman

Reponse to Q:

by eroonman on

No, I am actually totally serious, since the mock election was entirely run by a third uninvested party, the result is far more "reliable" (I never said accurate), meaning trustworthy, that the votes were counted fairly and the results tallied accurately. The mock election was conducted according to free world standards.

The Iranian election, is run by, counted by, and announced by the Iranian Government, therefore it is suspect and not legitimate as an election in the free world.

This does not mean that the Iranian election does not count, it is legal according to Iranian law. But that law and election procedure is not accepted practice in the free world.

It also does not mean that elections in the free world are not corrupt, far from it. But Iran's election procedure is entirely suspect, primarily because it is completely controlled by the government. I understand why, but it still makes the results completely suspect, and essentially invalid.

As far as sampling goes, your assumption that the sample that took this survey were not representative of Iranians in Iran. That isn't necessarily true. It is possible that Iranains here have the same average opinion as those in Iran. And that is never going to be provable, not because this data is unavaialble from comparison, but becasue you are assuming the Iranian data is valid. Again, since the government controls that data, their claim of their sample is far more prone to bias and is more suspect than this data.

You simply cannot trust the wolf to count the sheep in the meadow.

This data was collected by a 3rd party so there is no chance anyone tampered with it. The Iranian data is likely being tampered with as we speak. If they are smart. And they are.

Finally, the accuracy of this survey is in many ways more truthful than the Iranian data, because it is being made by FREE Iranians. OPPRESSED Iranians are actually biased from a sampling curve, because there are unreasonable pressures exerted on them, and so their result is in essence biased by their fear and oppression.

I know it's a fine line of a weak argument, but I cannot accept a claim that the Iranian election, is as standard or equivalent to an election held by an independent 3rd party verifciation procedure, and voted by FREE and un-intimidated voters.

This mock election in all it's lack of seriousness, is in fact FAR MORE compliant to the minimum free world standard, than the Iranian election. Even though the Iranian election is legal. In Iran.

Here it would be in the courts within 5 minutes of the first ballot dropping, and declared invalid before lunch.


rosie is roxy is roshan

well.hey..the.46.is..almost.like.the.47..Q..in.

by rosie is roxy is roshan on

the.Caviar.Republic..only.I.guess.here.it.should.be.called.

the.goldfish.republic..but.ya.know..the.thing.that.surprises.

me.is.that.a.full.third.wrote.in..which.is.abstention.essentially.

and.it's.not.THAT.far.from.the.46..which.means.that..I.was.

wrong.about.the.bloodbath.lady.effect..

I.admit.it..I.admit.it.freely..wrong-o.

f-.me..

 


Big Boy

Hahaha

by Big Boy on

Reza Pahlavi got more than donkey, monkey, and Micky Mouse...excellent!


Q

Your numbers appear to confirm other polls

by Q on

For Iranians living abroad, this sounds about right. But how many people voted?

Your claims of this being "moe accurate" than Iran's actual vote is of course laughable, I hope you are joking.

If you understand anything about demographics and statistics, you would know that you are not drawing from a representative sample of the Iranian electorate. Don't be silly. This poll is at best only a representative of the populations that had access to it on Iranian.com.

And why can't you link directly to the hosting site, so people can see it there?


default

Raw numbers?

by ProudToBeAnonymous (not verified) on

E-man,

What was the actual number of the voters?