Iranian "analysts" are scrambling to define how an Iranian used car salesman got into this mess and why this may or may not be news and so on and so forth. Starting tonight we're going to see Iranian "experts" jockey for positions in TV interviews. There are going to be belog after belog, article after article, comments after comments on this pelot!
Here in our own corner of the universe we're going to talk about it and throw each other under the bus like there is no tomorrow! Iranian families are trying hard to explain to their kids what this all means and as we say in Farsi, inshallah khoda zalilesh koneh! Those of you who are trying to distance yourself from this mess as much as possible will find yourself become the target of the unwanted attacks much more than usual! My advice is to just put things in perspective and just deal with it like we've dealt with similar situations in the past, albeit it's been a while since we've had a nationally known Iranian terrorist!
As far as I can tell this has to do with the Bahrain crisis and how the Iranian regime have jacked up people in Iran with public demonstrations inside Iran. The picture in this blog is one such demonstration earlier this year. As you know Bahrain has a Shiite majority that is being ruled by a Sunni minority backed by the Saudis who earlier this year sent troops to Bahrain to crush their Arab Spring.
So some in Iran are itching to do the same and send their own troops to Bahrain! Since they couldn't do it this "pelot" may have been the "next best thing"! This guy, who by the way has a strange last name, to our English speaking friends his name is a combination of Arbab (meaning Feudal or the boss) and Siar (which I don't know what it means :-), was probably just trying for a get rich quick scheme got in touch with this Shakuri guy in the Iranian military and Shakuri got in touch with some who can spare $1.5M and $100,000 as down payment. The rest is history, or will be!
This is going to cost Iran more, either on the sanctions front or some other mechanism. Something like this has happened before like in Dahran, Saudi Arabia where Iran was directly linked but this time there is this $100,000 that was wired and proof positive that someone from inside Iran wanted this done. There are also the taped conversations.
Bottom line, don't look for conspiracy theories or we should talk about other issues in Iran and such. No this is it! This is the news and everyone is going to talk about it. We'll probably hear more from inside Iran and the reactions there. This could be one of those "sparks" that starts something, I don't mean another uprising necssarily, but could you have predicted this?!
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