Esfand Aashena
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Iranian Activists Watch Egypt And Wonder: Why Not Us?
04-Feb-2011
Right after the Iranian uprisings in 2009 I was reading this article in Washinton Post where Arab activists were envious of Iranian protesters saying things like:
"I am extremely jealous," said Nayra El Sheikh, 28, a blogger and Sharkawy's wife. "I can't help but think: Why not us? What do they have that we don't have? Do they have more guts?"
"I was very happy about what was happening. But I was also very sad. I know I can never do this here," the thin, 22-year-old activist said. "You need a far greater movement than in Iran to achieve any change in Egypt."
Ahmed Abd el-Fatah wrote on his blog, "We Egyptians are like youth watching pornography because they can't practice sex. Congratulations to Iran for its democracy."
Funny comparing the Green Movement to pornography! Or was he comparing the Iranian "democracy" to porn?! Either way they were jealous and thought they could never achieve what we have already achieved in Iran. They were also complaining about "crisis of leadership" and not having political groups or leaders to lead them.
There doesn't appear to be a leader in Egypt's movement but there are plenty of leaders. El Baradaei one of them. By the way is El Baradaei half Hispanic?! Like El Taco or El Presidente! What they're talking about now is having a "coalition government" having various groups participate in elections and also representation.
So back to our own Iran as we all know many activists shoot Mousavi and Karoubi's shadows so let's leave them out. Although, many in Iran don't want to leave them out and are in prison for having followed them and if we're talking "coalition government" you don't want to leave people out. But still let's leave them out so as not to offend anyone here who would throw a hissy fit!
The point is Iranian protests were inspiration to these Arab activists and for all we know we were instrumental in Tunis and now Egypt. The cry for democracy and justice is all the same. Opportunities are limited and the new generation of Iranians and Arabs are fed up and since their futures look bleak they're ready to explode. With the economic meltdown that is always looming having a dictatorship on top of them is the fuel that will start the fire when there is a spark.
So we should look for Iran's future uprising perhaps in another 2 years like Egypt followed Iran as it is now deja vu with that Washington Post article. Iran and Egypt are full of stupid dictators and those who photo shop everything just prove the culture of corruption. The editor who photoshopped this blog's photo was fired but only because he was stupid enough thinking no one would notice! No such photoshop problems for editors in Iran yet!
What we're witnessing in the Arab world is a tsunami compared to Iran's green movement. Tunis, Egypt, Jordan, Syria and now Yemen. Iran could very well be next. Think coalitions and coalition governments. That seems to be the way out of this whole Middle East mess and dictatorships.
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Why Tunisia and not Iran? Each in their due time.
by Esfand Aashena on Sat Feb 05, 2011 06:57 AM PSTEverything is sacred
vildemose Jan
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Fri Feb 04, 2011 03:29 PM PSTYou are absolutely right. No authoritarian regime works without power. In Iran when the military turn against Mollahs they will be gone. However that is not the only option. Internal fighting or other factors may also do in the regime.
VPK
Why Tunisia and not Iran
by vildemose on Fri Feb 04, 2011 03:18 PM PSTExcerpts:
In Iran, a mass uprising that lasted six months was brutally suppressed. The Green Movement of 2009 never became a “Green Revolution.” Instead, an entrenched authoritarian regime reasserted its authority. The regime’s violent repression succeeded. The opposition was broken, and the regime has since tightened its grip on power.
Four factors help explain the success of mass protests in Tunisia and their failure in Iran. First, the most decisive factor was the Tunisian army’s refusal to shoot. Its defection signaled a fatal crack in the ruling coalition. On its own, the military’s role was probably sufficient to bring about the fall of President Zine al-Abdine Ben Ali. The breakdown of authoritarian regimes has historically been due to splits within a ruling coalition—as in Iran’s own revolution in 1979 against the monarchy. The military is critical to an authoritarian regime’s survival, but it is most likely to defect when the costs—whether to the army’s reputation, its cohesion, or its ability to shape events later on—are too high to justify its continued loyalty.Four factors help explain the success of mass protests in Tunisia and their failure in Iran.
First, the most decisive factor was the Tunisian army’s refusal to shoot. Its defection signaled a fatal crack in the ruling coalition. On its own, the military’s role was probably sufficient to bring about the fall of President Zine al-Abdine Ben Ali. The breakdown of authoritarian regimes has historically been due to splits within a ruling coalition—as in Iran’s own revolution in 1979 against the monarchy. Second,..//iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2011/jan/25/why-tunisia-and-not-iran
Egypt
by Raoul1955 on Fri Feb 04, 2011 01:17 PM PSTCurrently has a secular regime under the US control, whereas Iranians have an islamic system that came to power decades ago through a DEMOCRATIC process and based its constitution on islamic values. The Egyptian government cannot just mow down people who oppose it, whereas Iranians can and do. Iranians can kill as many opposition members as they wish since they are not under the US control or bound by international norms.
If Egypt becomes islamic then they will treat the opposition with the same islamic justice and kindness as Iranians do. :-)
It all depends on the economic well being of these countries.
by Esfand Aashena on Fri Feb 04, 2011 12:06 PM PSTSome of these countries like Kuwait are small countries with small populations and as much as their sheikhs blow off their money on their "creature comforts" as long as they keep some flow of money to their population they can ride out their rules.
So far, Tunis, Egypt, Jordan and Yemen are 4 countries and that is a lot. When you're young and don't feel like you have any future or job opportunities coming to the streets and protesting is just another day in the office!
I feel sorry for limited or no opportunities for these young generations in the Middle East but at least they get a chance to find themselves a new era. One of our problems in Iran was these freaking Mullahs encouraged people to have multiple children, partly to have a new "Islamic generation" and partly to refresh the population that was lost in the war.
Even today Ahmadi is encouraging people to have as many kids as possible! So this population explosion and the young generation has now become Islamic Republic's worst nightmare!
Everything is sacred
.......
by yolanda on Fri Feb 04, 2011 11:59 AM PSTThank you, Mehrdad, for your great comment! I agree with you 100%!
Well Esfand Jaan, I am hoping
by Bavafa on Fri Feb 04, 2011 11:55 AM PSTNashashideh, shab drazeh.
I am very optimistically hopeful that this wave will not end in Egypt or just the other Arab dictators. I am hoping that this be just a beginning and will take all ME, not only Iran but also Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and all other dictatorial regime.
But at this point, I am both envious of the Egyptian and also extremely happy for them
Mehrdad
Mubarak is not even walking in this photo!
by Esfand Aashena on Fri Feb 04, 2011 09:53 AM PSTLooks like he is striking a pose when others are walking and are about to run into him! He was in cloud nine just a few months ago!
Anahid, Yolanda thanks for reading and your comments.
Everything is sacred
........
by yolanda on Fri Feb 04, 2011 09:39 AM PSTAll the protests in Muslim counrtries remind me of the collapse and reforms of communist countries in 1980's........
I read the article you referred to 2 years ago, it is a great article! The article praises Iranians...........The roles are reversed now!
Thank you for your blog!~
Thanks Esfand,yes,"Think coalitions and coalition governments"
by Anahid Hojjati on Fri Feb 04, 2011 08:54 AM PSTDear Esfand, thanks for your blog. I agree with you about couple items in your blog which I am quoting here:
"So we should look for Iran's future uprising perhaps in another 2 years "
"Think coalitions and coalition governments. That seems to be the way out of this whole Middle East mess and dictatorships."
There are some political coalitions for Iran. What we need to do is to have coalitions that are more active and also more "mardomi". I mean that news of activities of these coalitions need to get to more Iranians and the coalitions if they are in Diaspora, need to form strong ties with political activists in Iran. Any way, that is topic of another blog but thanks for your blog.