Faramarz

Premature

I don't agree with an invasion of Iran, nor do I think it's my place as
someone who lives outside of Iran to call for it. I also think that
calling for help is a bit premature at this stage. You call for help
when all others options have been exhausted, and if help is even possible. In Libya they tried to go
it their own and failed, they needed help. But before they called for
help they picked up guns and fought like lions. Thousands died. Lets
compare that to the green movement in Iran. 73 is the highest given
number of people killed, 37 is the lowest. The movement was gathering
momentum but a protest was called off by Mousavi and that killed it.
Does Iran really sound like a place where the people have exhausted
every option? To add to that this regime has lots of infighting between
the people in charge. More infighting than the Arab regimes that are
being overthrown right now.

No harm

I don't see any harm done by bunch of sorties dropping bombs on IRI sites. Ok so the old soviet junk (Busheher nuclear reactor) will  be destoryed but so what? piece of garbage is not working any way and will never work. Now if some of the rev guards and basisjis die from all these actions even better!!! frankly we need more of it.

You can not fight these armed to teeth bullies who do not hestitate to kill you one bit with words of wisdom, complain to UN or listenting to ever boring likes of Ebadi's and Dabshi's. Some times in life you need to fight fire with fire and this is one of those times.  

Faramarz jaan help!

  First - You either ask for help and there is a price to pay or the help is free.  Do we ask you about the price?  I asked but you didn't provide a price.  I suspect if you want generic help like asking for directions, help is free but if you want IRI oh IRI gone asap then there will be a price.  The price may or may not take for eternity to pay off!  Libya was "liberated" using the founders of Al Qaeda and as you said nothing is clear now so we can't use it as an example.

Second - As for invasion you are again using Syria as an "example".  We are not there yet and our fate may be different.  Syria itself is not yet resolved one way or another.  Again the fate of neither of these countries in the Middle East or Africa are any good.  

Again with all due respect I don't want to go back and forth in circles and generic statements.  My impression of your blog and responses are that you're desparately wanting the Islamic Republic to collapse asap and you're asking for help at all costs possible, maybe not admit it out loud but hinting here and there none-the-less to keep "everyone" happy! 

If someone mentions the drums of war on Iran are far louder than any other "liberated" country in the neighborhood you then say no I'm not asking for war, but there may come a time that so and so happens and then you do so and so and hopefully by then so and so will help us and finally the Islamic Republic falls and everyone will live happily every after!

Everything is sacred

Doctor Mohandes

Warmest wishes from here too.

Don't go beyond the Nafeh Teyloon (ehem, as you would say!)

Esfand Jaan

Let me try it one more time and cover 2 items only.

One of the arguments made here about “asking for help” is that once we do that we will become subservient to the US and the west for eternity. I disagree with that and actually hold ourselves responsible for maintaining our independence going forward. The reference to bread and haircut is a simple way of stating that we do business with a whole host of people and we can choose who we can do business with if we are smart.

If you look at Libya today, although it is too early, they are not giving their oil free to BP or Total. There are no NATO boots on the ground there. There was no invasion or occupation and it is now up to them to make it work or to screw it up.

The second point that I would like to make is about all the hysteria about invasion itself.  Invasion and occupation mean thousands of foreign troops running around a country as was the case with Iraq. Nobody in their right mind is suggesting that for Iran. If you look at the Arab Spring as a model for Iran with its own unique attributes, then we might have a scenario like the following.

As the sanctions get tighter and when no oil or gas flows, the Regime will become isolated, bankrupt and desperate and there will be fissures within the Regime as well as uprising by the opposition. Sooner or later the protests will become violent and at that point one will be faced with the dilemma, “do we fight the Regime with the toilette plungers or do we arm ourselves and who can give us the bullets, the guns or show us how to make cocktail Molotov (remember the last days of the Shah and the battles with the Imperial Guards?)”

There are also more subtle components to “help” like sending foreign observers to the trouble spots as it is taking place in Syria today.  Iranians could ask more neutral governments like Turkey or Brazil to send monitors and bring the full weight of the world on the Regime. You can close airspace over the neighboring countries so Iran Air will be grounded and many more things.

One lesson learned out of Libya is that a Regime should not send jets to bomb its opposition because you will get a “no- fly zone” by NATO. And so far Assad has not sent his MIG’s to Homs. He is only using his tanks!

Cheers

Mass After Assad?

Looks like Assad's assszzz is itching and looking for some Masses  to scratch it or is it all just in my head?

Warmest greetings and wishes from Naffeh Teyloon:)) 

Mass anti-Assad protest

Mass anti-Assad protest in Homs as monitors visit

//news.yahoo.com/arab-league-monitors-way-syrias-homs-report-072239125.html

A state of war only serves as an excuse for domestic tyranny.--Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn.

Dear Rea

There is no way to tell for sure what majority think. First we have no reliable method of polling. Those by Western organizations using phones are idiotic. Do you think Iranians in IRI tell a stranger what they think on the phone?

The other problem is many people in villages and other areas are not so reachable. Plus opinions are easy to manipulate. Polling results are a functions of questions. So "do you support an Israeli attack" is different than "do you support a democracy".

Anyway as many people said America does not take orders from IC. Our debates are just that. One thing possible is to influence the course of things. I don't know if it will turn out better but we could try. It beats not doing anything.

Iranian opinion

The best way is to talk to Iranians when they are visiting in the West. If they know you and trust you in private you get the real idea. 

Simorgh & VPK

I have no reason to doubt there are lot of people in Iran who wish the IRI gone. Now, whether they are majority or not, hard for me to say based only on reading what non-Iranian media have to say.

"The only variation is in how to replace it." That, imho, is the key point. For what exactly is "assistance", as Simorgh put it, if not foreign intervention.

From what little I know, the West "assisted" Iranians with the overthrow of the Shah (Mossadegh as well). Did not turn out right. What makes you think it would turn out right this time if "assisted" ? Because people in Iran learnt their lesson from the 1979 disaster ?

Whether we call it foreign assistance or foreign intervention it is a risky business. And given both the Iranian ethnic and regional political complexities, I'd say it is even riskier.

Ufff.

فرامرز جان چه بگویم که نگفتنم بهتر است!

Faramarz jaan you have written an odd view!  The topic itself is salacious but your reasoning is certainly odd!  Others have said pretty much what needed to be said but here's what I think.

First of all there is no monopoly on who is "more" anti-IRI so s/he would be our model!  If that was the case Masoud and Maryam are THE most anti-IRI and they even went as far sleeping with Saddam to prove their anti-IRI stance.

Second, Iranians have ALWAYS asked for help.  Everyone asks for help.  I don't of any nationality that suffers from human rights abuses and says nothing.  I don't know of anyone who while being beaten to death says; thank you sir may I have another!

You have stated in your blog and I've seen other similar arguments where "under certain conditions" foreign military invasion would be justified.  In the case of Iran you have to define those "certain conditions" before I can say if a foreign military invasion is justified.  I don't know if we're talking about concentration camps and executing thousands on a daily basis or what.  Even if it is justified, it doesn't mean the foreign militaries will invade another country.  North Korea is having concentration camps in North Korea and Russia's Siberia and no one is rushing to bomb them or get militarily involved. 

I take it "certain conditions" is not yet met so as long as IRI keeps the same it's ok.

You are comparing cutting your hair, making a bread or chaging an oil in the car similar to asking for help from foreign militaries.  Well I pay $16 for hair cut, $2 for bread and $20 - $30 for oil change.  Now how much do foreign militaries charge for ejecting IRI from power?  I don't mean to answer your questions by questions but you forgot to mention the price so I can decide.

A fight between unarmed civilians against an armed Government is ALWAYS "unfair", never "fair" but people always win in the end.

In the end and with all due respect I think you've pretty much checkmated yourself by covering all the scenarios and ruling out asking for foreign military invasion.  There is also a scenario of foreign militaries just throw a single bomb in the middle of Iranian desert and IRI just folding and no bloodshed or nothing.  There is always a "chance" that Iranians welcoming foreign troops with flowers and cheering and dancing in the streets!

Of all the help foreign militaries have provided in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Egypt, Tunis and others, none are appealing either.  Afghanistan may be the only country who is not that much worse than before but they still have daily bombings in the streets. 

Everything is sacred

YES

the problems from inside is : that If any gathering in any corner of IRAN is about regime change they'll be treated with tear gas and.....

OR if its about marg bar ....

they'll get pashm-o shisheh coverage & FREE sundees!

* YES they need to ask for help without troops landing there.

Maziar

Dear Rea

I don't have to think about it :-) I talk to people who come and go all the time. Now I admit my sample is not representative. But anyone mostly living in Iran would qualify right? They vary:

• People who are mostly businessmen. They are not able to do business and are not happy about it. Reasons are obvious.
• Others people hope for regime change and do support it to various degrees.

No one I know likes or wants IRI. The only variation is in how to replace it.

Rea

  "Inside every gook there is an American trying to get out."

Those monkeys in Iran who chant, "Death to America" will always be the first to arrive to the USA on their banana boat.

These hypocrites will entrust their own lives and that of their family to a country which they ideologically hate to the core but all of them secretly luuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuurve America.

But as soon as they get their bum social security pay cheque they're out on the street criticizing other Iranians who want American assistance to help liberate Iran.  

What do Iranians in Iran

.... think about it, I wonder.

SELL OUTS

Do you think the revolutionary mantra "Na Shargh, Nagharb, Faghat Jomhuriye Eslami" rings true today?

The entire Islamic Republic is beholden to the Russia (the people who massacred 100,000 Iranians in Rasht and Tabriz one hundred years to this day on Boxing Day 1911) and China. The IR has now been forced to sign extortionate 'bilateral' (unilateral) trade term agreements with the Russians buying their crap civilian and industrial technology such as the cursed Topolov planes at premium prices; and I haven't even mentioned the small matter of the Caspian Sean and selling oil dirt cheap to the Russians and Chinese. 

The Islamic Republic has become the whore of Russia and even licking the kneecaps of Israel by purchase of its agricultural and military hardware.

The IR is a morally and economically bankrupt regime. For all the concessions the Shah gave to America the standard of living, GDP and disposable incomes of most families and workers were higher. Even if you hated the Shah you will be hard pressed to deny that Iranians enjoyed a better standard of living than the Mullah regime.

And again? The sheer hypocricy of the commentators here is overwhelming. When YOU went into exile YOU chose the country which would give you the ultimate economic prosperity and social freedoms which was the USA or Europe. The USA is the country which installed the 'corrupt' Shah and the overthrew the 'democratically elected' Mossadeq. The USA is the country which started Vietnam, bombed Hiroshima into a mushroom cloud and then when you had to chose somewhere to reside all your animosity towards America disappeaed. In your mind you justified it by drawing a distinction between the 'good American people' and the US goverment, or you told people that you were dictated to come to the USA because of 'personal reasons'. All the while deep down YOU WERE A COP OUT.

You sold out to America. The country which you fought to rid its pernicious and evil infuence in your country in 1978. The country which you even shouted 'Marg Bar...' to in your ideological naivety. You could have gone to Malaysia. You could have gone to Cuba. You could have gone to the Philipinnes or South America but you sold out.

YOU CHOSE WHAT WAS BEST FOR YOUR OWN REAR END AND WHAT WAS BEST FOR THE ECONMOCI INTEREST OF YOUR FAMILY.

You knew when you came to the USA you would be paying tax towards helping the 'Zionist' regime to demolish Palestinian homes and settle on Palestinian land

You knew when you came to the USA your tax would go fund the industrial military complex and pave the way for more Ameican military adventures

By living in the USA and paying money to the IRS you are funding the continuing the contunued occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan. It is your money which is paying for it. YOU are paying for it. All the tax revenue from Iranian-Americans in the USA alone is help funding much of the US wars and possibly a war on Iran.

BUT YOU HAD A CHOICE. 

YOU CAME TO LIVE IN THE USA AND TAKE CITIZENSHIP OF A MURDERING EVIL NATION WHICH KILLS IRAQI AND PALESTINIAN BABIES BECAUSE OF YOUR OWN SELF INTEREST. BY LIVING THERE YOU ARE PAYING FOR IT AND YOU KNEW THIS BEFORE YOU PUT FOOT ON AMERICAN SOIL! 

YOU DID IT BECAUSE YOU WERE SELFISH!  

NOW WHEN PEOPLE ARE ASKING THE USA FOR HELP 'BAD AMERICA' 'BAD USA' LIKE SORAYA ULRICH WHATS HER FACE! AND THEN ADD A FOOTNOTE TO SAY 'YOU LOVE THE AMERICAN PEOPLE BUT NOT THE GOVERNMENT'

IT DOESN'T WASH!!!!!!!!!!YOU SOLD OUT. PLAIN AND SIMPLE. YOU BETRAYED IRAN! AND NOW YOU'RE GONNA HELP FUND A WAR TO BOMB IT 

When it came to your politics and all the principles you fought for. They went on a back burner.

Re help

Dear Faramarz, based on your reference to Gaddafi, Chalabi and Alawi (which all point to invasion of Lybia and Iraq) and the fact that the notion of "asking for help" in today's global context refers to military intervention, I surmised that the help you meant was of military nature! Moreover, since the outside world is steadily doing its utmost (short of a military action) such as increasing and widening the snactions (to include oil. gas and central bank) in addition to pressing IRI on human rights and nuclear issues, what kind of additional help are Iranians going to expect from the outside world but military?

I 2nd that G. Rahmanian! That's Mostafa!

It's a familiar name!?

Thanks Uncle G.

I have Bakhtiari blood in me too and loved the picture.

Dear Faramarz:

Hailing from a long line of proud nomadic Bakhtiaris, I could not help noticing the irony in the selection of the most fitting photo for your blog.

Bahram G. Goll, Yes Mehdi Farrari is the same as Mehdi Chahhi!

The historical reasons behind his running away are abundant. But the most popular one is that he ran away because of his homosexuality!

Your unconditional friend and student!

Dear Bavafa: What do you

Dear Bavafa: What do you call this?

Treasonous IRI still Lieing:

//www.pyknet.net/1390/03dey/05/page/31SehSHanbeh.php

طی ماههای گذشته حداقل در دوبی همه از پخش روزانه میلیونها دلار یا "درهم" بین بازرگانان یا شرکتهای ایرانی در امارات توسط بانکهای اماراتی خبر دارند و همه میدانند که این وجوه از محل واگذاری بخشی از فروش نفت ایران به شرکت های نفتی امارات است و باز هم خبر دارند که ایران نفت خود را با 30 دلار کمتر از ارزش واقعی خود در اختیار این شرکتها ( یا بعبارتی شیوخ امارات ) قرار داده است. این از همان دور زدنهایی است که بهمنی رئیس کل بانک مرکزی مدام بر زبانش جاری است. براحتی میتوان حدس زد که با فروش دلار با ارزشی بالاتر از نرخهای دولتی، ایران قصد دارد وانمود کند که نفت را به ارزش واقعی خود می فروشد.

م

“It’s not enough that faith claims to be the solution to all problems,” he wrote in Slate in 2009 after a Danish newspaper apologised for publishing cartoons of the prophet Muhammad. “It is now demanded that such a preposterous claim be made immune from a

Presence Of The American Occupation Forces In Japan!

Presence Of The American Occupation Forces In Japan is only felt by those whose ego occupies the largest part of their brains. The majority of the population does not even feel their presence. By saying this, I'm not advocating occupation of my country by any outside force. However, in case of a war, Iran will not stay occupied for any long period of time, unless US policies change over night. But, come to think of it, Iran IS occupied by one of the most hated forces in its history. Looking at what happened in Washington after the incident at the Gulf of Mexico, I think that sort of occupation by representatives of the world's oil giants is scarier than any form of occupation. Of more than six hundred oil experts, lobbyists and lawyers that poured into Washington, more than four hundred belonged to BP! Did the majority of the Americans even care about the outrageous number! I bet you eleven out of every ten average Americans didn't even hear or were interested enough to know about it. The cheering after the "successful" capping of the oil well by the media suppressed every attempt at portraying the oil leak and the environmental damage that it caused as a disaster.

Cousin Farmarz: Regime change, self-defense and respect....

The American-backed regime change was my assertion as I believe America will get involved and help only if the future regime is to its benefit and support.  And yes, I absolutely believe in self-defense  and for that and I have and will lend my support to those Iranians fighting the regime.

Also  just a word about respect in a business transaction - it is natural that in any business transaction each party tries to benefit the most it can and there is nothing wrong with that.  It is only when one party bullies/coerce the other into a transaction.

  Do we believe if any/future Iranian regime:decides to reduce or cease its oil export, do we think US will just accept that?Or if Iran decide to deal in currency other than dollar it is of a benefit for it , do we believe that the US will accept such strategic decision?

'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory 

Mehrdad

ورود نظامیان لیبی به خاک سوریه

Not sure if Syrians asked for this, but they're getting it!

//www.eshterak.info/news/2011/12/post-1675.ht...

Should Syria Ask for

Should Syria Ask for help?

 Syria Violence: Government Tanks Unleash Fire On Protesters, Killing At Least 20

BEIRUT, Dec 26 - At least 20 people were killed as Syrian tank forces battled opponents of President Bashar al-Assad in Homs on Monday, residents said, ahead of a planned visit by Arab League monitors to verify whether he is ending a violent crackdown on unrest.

A day before observers were to have their first look at the city at the heart of a nine-month-old revolt, there was no sign of Assad carrying out a plan agreed with the League to halt an offensive against protests and start talks with the opposition.

Amateur video posted to the internet by activists showed three tanks in the streets next to apartment blocks. One was firing its machinegun and another appeared to be firing mortar rounds. Gruesome video showed mangled bodies lying in pools of blood along a narrow street. Power lines had collapsed and cars were burnt and blasted, as if by mortar rounds.

An armed insurgency is increasingly eclipsing civilian protests. Now many fear Syria is sliding toward a sectarian war that pits the Sunni Muslim majority, the driving force of the protest movement, against minorities that have mostly stayed loyal to the government, particularly the Alawite sect to which Assad belongs. Fighting in Homs has intensified since a double suicide bombing in Damascus on Friday that killed 44 people....more

“It’s not enough that faith claims to be the solution to all problems,” he wrote in Slate in 2009 after a Danish newspaper apologised for publishing cartoons of the prophet Muhammad. “It is now demanded that such a preposterous claim be made immune from a

Arj

I never said anything like invasion, occupation or anything that remotely resembles the Iraq situation.

Actually, your last paragraph gets close to what I am saying. But as it's been said here already, the Regime will not collapse without a fight. The question then becomes how the Iranians can be enabled to have a "fair" fight against the Regime.

Cousin Mehrdad

Where in my blog did I say American-backed regime change? Do you believe in self-defense?

Thanks Faramarz

For answering my question. I'm relieved now and can move on to other matters:-)).
"The business of America is business," "what's good for General Motor, is good for America," "business is business, not charity." These longstanding slogans are at the heart of the American capitalism which drives it's policies and government. And the upper most concern of any business is profitability. So America, as defined by it's large and small businesses are true to their mission and aim to make deals that has money in it for them
There is nothing wrong with this orientation, leaving morality and even ethics out. You got something to sell, the American will aim to buy it as cheaply as it can. And you want to buy something from the American, it will try to sell it to you as expensively as it can. This is pure capitalism. Fairness plays no part in the deal.
It is delusional to see things otherwise. For instance to expect respect, as some seem to work it in. RESPECT BEE RESPECT.you're not marrying the guy you do business with. You are trading goods and services to make a buck and stay in business and hopefully thrive. It is that simple. Just look at south Korea. It has thrived by leaps and bounds sticking to the guiding principle of doing business the capitalistic way. With not much in the way of natural resources and with a rugged landmass, it has done business with the US, to begin with, the smart way, prospered immensely and has become eleventh (?) economic power in the world. Did America exploit south Korea, or the other way around? I venture to say neither. They just did business and the Koreans seem to have beniftitted immensely. Why couldn't we Iranians do the same. Dump all the other ancillary concerns, such as respect, and get on with the exchange of goods and services. I bet we would do as well, if not better, than the Koreans.
All this trash talk and fear of America or European exploitations are just self-crafted chains that prevent us from breaking out of our suspicions and becoming a player in the arena of life.
In short. America's business is business. Let's role our sleeves and start doing business to a mutual benefits.

Relations vs occupation

This argument is based on false premises, chief among which is assertion that those who oppose invasion of Iran are opposed to maintining normal relationship with the outside world or even international oil and gas companies! The main fallacy here lies in equating signing energy contracts (or any foreign relation treaty) under occupation to decisions made by a free nation -- albeit Iran under IRI is far from the notion of a free nation!

However, if the example of Iraq is any indication, an invaded/occupied nation's stability and territorial intgerity falls at the mercy of occupying freign forces who treat those issues according to their own national interests rather than those of the occupied nation! The only prospect differentiating IRI from Saddam, hence underlining the immediate effects among the aftermaths of its downfall, would be repeal of the social restrictions imposed by the religious regime. Otherwise, the prospects of the ensuing post-war/occupation events in Iran should not be considered any less gloomy than those of Iraq -- unless of course some consider Iraq's situation a success!

Considering IRI's gradual caving under the pressure of incrementally comprehensive international sanctions, the best option for those who seek the overthrow of IRI and yet find the prospects of a devastating war counterproductive, would be a genuine grass-roots uprising of the Iranian people which at the right juncture, coupled with the widening rift among the rank and file of the IRI establishment (due to increasing international pressure) would bring about the downfall of the regime at the hands of the Iranian people themselves!