FG

One can't help wondering

what  Assad is thinking here? How can you continue the mass killing of your own people and believe that you are strengthening your position by doing so?

One can't help wondering who's behind all this arab rising? One can't help wondering how long Iranians will endure their divine regime before they get fed up and kick them out while there's still a glimer of hope in saving Iran, her resources and her identity from these creatures.

FG, Thanks for this Report with

your analysis and references.  It made me very hopeful about IRAN's Future.

Syrian forces murdered 200 people in huge massacre today

Almost all victims were civilians from a small town.   Assad is a man after Khamenei's heart.

 //news.yahoo.com/syria-hit-diplomatic-defection-u-n-battles-divisions-002326235.html

More hot details on Qassem's revelations

I missed this full report from the Guardian or I'd have posted it in the news section.   My original report came from the blog recap.    Having opened this can of worms, I supposed it's best to provide the link to a fully report here:

 //www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/12/khamenei-accused-blood-on-hands

Note: The Guardian story also contains a link to the general's original letter which is in farsi.

IRCG GENERALS THREATENED WITH EXECUTION UNLESS THEY SLAUGHTERED THE PEOPLE

 Identified only by his initials, the general says that he and a number of his colleagues were threatened with execution for disloyalty and then – after a series of secret courts-martial – dismissed "because we refused to participate in the betrayals and the crimes committed by our seniors".

...In the aftermath of the fiercely disputed 2009 elections, several dozen Revolutionary Guards generals, as well as senior figures in the informal voluntary Basij militia, were replaced for refusing to use violence against unarmed protesters. 

AUTHENCITY

 Speaking to the Guardian by telephone from Tehran, Nourizad – who published the general's letter on his website – said he was convinced of its authenticity because it was handed to him in person by the former general.

"This is one of the many such letters written by senior figures within the Sepah [Revolutionary Guards] that I have received. I have refrained from publishing many of them because I was worried they might pose security problems," said Nourizad.

OBSERVATIONS: Apprently sone didn't listen.  Hence the death squads.   If the IRCG, an "elite" force directly under the Supreme Leaders command, can't be trusted then who can?  Note that in Syria all but 100,000 members of the military are "confined to barracks" which makes it that much harder to suppress demonstrations in so many areas.  I suspect Iran may have to do the same.

 ON NUKES:

 "The inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency are fooling themselves if they believe that the nuclear facilities on and under the ground are only for peaceful purposes," he writes. "The leader said [in a fatwa] that Iran has only peaceful intentions with its nuclear activities. This is a sheer lie."

"We undertook this nuclear gamble with the leader's knowledge – that's why we are paying billions of dollars into Chinese and Russian bank accounts so that they support us in international negotiations and we could find a way out of this stalemate." Opposition activists often accuse the Iranian government of securing political support from China and Russia with preferential oil contracts and business opportunities.

OBSERVATION: This should complicate the present negotiations since I'm sure it will be brought up.

ON DEFENDING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

.... the general said that in the event of any hostilities, Iran's forces in the Gulf would not be able to resist for more than a day.

ON WIDESPREAD CORRUPTION IN THE IRCG

 The general accuses the Revolutionary Guards of corruption and involvement in smuggling and the illegal transfer of foreign currency. "Is it not ridiculous? The presidential office established a unit to combat smuggling but at the same time, senior guards generals were doing exactly the same thing in the southern islands of Qeshm, Hormuz and Abu Musa," he writes. "We tolerated the guards' economic activities and involvement in smuggling with the excuse of raising funds for its revolutionary ideas."

FINAL CONCLUSION:

I have to wonder where Iran might be today if IRanians had stuck it out longer and if they had encouraged a two-pronged approach (large-scale protests/ military resistance) as the Syrians did. 

Visualize the impact if Al Jazeerah interviewed Qassem

If the Iranian model hasn't been tainted enough in the Arab world, imagine the riveting impact as insiders like Qassem spill the beans on worldwide satellite television.   Around the entire world anyone advocating this particular variety of Islamist state (especially it's central doctrine) would have an uphill climb.

Two other places I'd like to see Qassem speaking out:

1. An interview on CBS 60 Minutes.

2. Testifying against Khamenei and His Assigned Murderers and Torturers before the World Court (or better yet an Iranian Court after the regime's fall). 

Was advice from Iran decisive in Assad's decision to go after Syria civilians? 

The "holy man" who advocated using tanks against Iranian civilians advised Assad, "It worked for us.  It should work for you?"  Syrians are now reaping the consequience of such advice, worsened further by Syrian assistance including Al Quds thugs.  

Unfortunately what "worked" for Khamenei isn't working for Assad.  Nor will it work next time for Khanenei when the Big Public Explosion comes.  Public attitudes toward the regime has changed greatly since 2009 and I suspect that's just as true among political insiders and the secure forces on which the regime depends.   

Wavering Iranian officers and troops know exactly what such tactics have done in Syria.  They can't miss the defections and the mass shooting of defecting officers.  I suspect many already have plans to defect if given similar orders ("Screw the mullahs! Why would I want to die or destroy my country for this bunch of scumbags?")

Relying on Death Squads Creates Long-Run Boomerangs

Today every living member of the Khoumeini family firmly believes that the death of Khoumeini's son--a critic of Khamenei's increasingly totalitarian ways-- came through a lethal injection ordered by Khamenei himself and carried out via the death squads Khamenei protected and encouraged.  This is the Number One Reason they've despised the regime ever since. 

Many IRCG generals are equally convinced that the regime has been using new death squads (probably organized by Taeb who is close to Khamenei) to murder fellow officers whose loyalty was suspect.  The effect on such officers is similar to the effect on the Khoumeinis.   What will they do when the public rises up again?

Post Regime Exposes, Probes and Books will Have a Huge Impact 

In an age of internet and satellite TV, investigatory panels and courts will produce tons of evidence exposing the dirty underside of harsh Islamist rule in which "holy men" are entrusted with too much power.  If you think the Iranian model's reputation is already badly tarnished, just wait!  

It has long been said that what the Muslim world needs is a Reformation.  Much like the Inquistion, the Thirty Years War and Witch Trials, the crimes of Al Queda and the IRI will encourage new and more liberal Islamic thinkers whose books, speeches, interviews and films will shake the world.   

Ambush Land for Syria's military

From the Guardian Roundup

The area between the northern city of Aleppo and the Turkish border has become ambush country, the Guardian's Martin Chulov writes after a stint in Syria with the rebels.

Hulking wrecks of tanks litter sections of the road, alongside the torched lorries that were transporting them. This is ambush country, fertile ground for the guerillas who hide in the nearby hills with whatever weapons they can scrounge.

Increasingly, the weapons of choice against the Syrian military's ageing tank fleet are Iraq-style roadside bombs, made with fertiliser detonated by mobile phones.

As the Guardian was crossing the border into Syria from Turkey early last week, a Turkish soldier checked the carry bag of a Syrian man, only metres from the border fence. He found four large ignition switches and a circuit board – all components for such bombs – that had been bought in a nearby Turkish town. "They're for my car," he said in a half-hearted bid to keep them from being confiscated. The soldier returned the man's bag without the switches. "Go to Syria," he said with a wave of his arm.