To Moussavi and Karroubi: Join the people or get left behind

Balatarin
Share/Save/Bookmark

FG
by FG
17-Feb-2011
 

A majority of the Iranian people finally grasps that so long the Islamic Republic exists, the only prospect for most living Iranians are bleak poverty, backwardness, misery, isolation and brutality until they die.  The same goes for their children and children's children.  The only logical conclusion is this: The Islamic Republic must go.  The alternative is unthinkable.

WILL THERE BE BLOOD? 

The bad news is that freedom won't come cheap.  Many unarmed Iranians will have to die first.  The "Dude In A Superturban" would kill a million Iranians to hold on to power and stolen wealth (over $27 billion).   The good news is that his troops will sicken of such things after killing a few hundred or a few thousand ([probably under 10,000). Then they will shoot any officer who gives such orders and any plainclothesman caught in similar thuggery.    

Khamenei's Islamic "Republic" borrowed its police state and disinformation tactics from Hitler and Stalin. The regime's misfortune is that crimes similar to Hitler's and Stalin's cannot be so easily concealed nowadays.   You would have to ban computers, the internet, cell phones, TVs, DVDs, satellites, foreign travel and foreign visitors.  You can't do that and run a modern economy which is essential to a modern military. 

A willingness to commit awful crimes rests on the mistaken assumption that such crimes can be concealed.  For authoritarian regimes old-style censorship is as effective as the legendary Dutch boy who tried to prevent a dam from bursting by putting his fingerts in spreading cracks.    These petty dictators never learn from the mistakers of others which explains why Khamenei's reputation has plummed so deeply since he rigged the election.  The man has exposed himself for all to see.  He never expected that.

PERMANENTLY DISCREDITED: WHERE KHAMENEI'S REPUTATION IS PLUMMETING FASTER THAN ANYWHERE

Previously Khamenei had cut Iran off from much of the modern world, costing his people greatly but still had a substantial number of admirers in the Middle East.  Now his reputation is plummeting faster there than anywhere.  In spite of his delusions to the contrary, the oppressed of Egypt, Tunisia and other nearby lands can hardly idenfity with the wielders of clubs, tear gas, rifles, rigged courts and torture chamber prisons.   Naturally they identify with the brutalized in Iran, not their tormentors. Even Islamist factions in Tunisia and Egypt have denounced the Islamic Republic as a role model. They much prefer Erdogan's example in Turkey (civil liberties, real elections and courts, economic progress despite having no oil)?  Would you pick that over what Khanmenei offers--rigged elections, rigged justice, rigged economies and "a boot in your face forever" to borrow George Orwell's definition of totalitarianism?

When the regime falls and Khamenei seeks refuge who will take him in.  Only Lebanon among muslim countries.   Elsewhere the only "possibles" are Venezuela, Zimbabwe and Venezuela.  I wonder why?

MOUSAVI, KAROUBBI AND AN ONLINE ANALYSIS"

"Faced with the heavy-handed response by the authorities, the question that lies ahead for the both Mousavi and Karroubi is pressing: Should they finally give up all pretence of compromise and resolution of conflict within the boundaries of the Islamic Republic and their reluctance to engage in a full-frontal confrontation with all elements of the regime, Khamenei included? Should they start to question the authority and wisdom of the Supreme Leader directly, as strongly requested by the protestors in the streets, or should they keep pressing with strategies which have been unsuccessful so far?" (Quoted from Scott Lucas' Enduring America on Feb. 17, 2011).

Balatarin
Share/Save/Bookmark

Recently by FGCommentsDate
MORSI’S “KHOUMEINI ACT” MAY SAVE SYRIANS FROM AN IRAN-STYLE FATE
1
Dec 02, 2012
Dec. 1st roundup: Turkey-IRI tensions grow/ Assad's troubles mount
4
Dec 01, 2012
EA analyst: REGIME'S FALL COULD BE IMMINENT!"
5
Nov 29, 2012
more from FG
 
Maryam Hojjat

Great Advise to the GREENS

by Maryam Hojjat on Fri Feb 18, 2011 05:02 AM PST

Hope they hear you and implement in the days to come for Victory over IRR/ IRI.


  •  
FG

Tactics and Timing Will Be Critical to Success

by FG on Thu Feb 17, 2011 05:19 PM PST

ANY VIOLENT UPRISING WILL FAIL

The regime has all the guns. So long it can clount on its troops NOT to switch sides, it will prevail.  

Firing on the IRCG or police will only guarantee they remain unified and self-preservation rules.   I'm not certain what effect any self-defense against hired thugs in plainclothes would have on the troops.

ARE INTERMITTENT DEMONSTRATIONS A MISTAKE?

The biggest mistake the opposition made was not to keep up the pressure when it had the numbers.   Holding intermittent demonstrations at pre-announced times failed for three reasons.

First, it gave the regime time to plan counterattacks, including preventive arrests and detentions.  Even the Basilj were getting worn down.  Secondly, it gave security troops a chance to rest and recover--relieving physical and psychological pressure.  Thirdly, as in Egypt, prolonged and continuous demonstrations could have acted as a magnet to draw larger crowds.  Suppose Egypt's opposition had relied on intermittent tactics and gone home to return a week or two later?

Last Monday's demonstration was a good idea as a way of embarassing the regime.  As a "pre-taste" for spring, it would be useful.  However, I'm concerned about the demo planned for Sunday.  If it fails, will the opposition be cripped for spring.  Will the regime be able to pick off different elements of the population because they can't unite and act?

PROTESTORS ELSEWHERE SHOWED THE REAL KEY TO VICTORY 

Regime change succeeded in Egypt because the military switched sides.  I'm not sure how much Khamenei's regime can depend on the army and some rank-and-file troopers and some officers if placed under heavy pressure or carry out especially unpalable orders. 

To encourage switching sides, you need to treat the police and military as would be allies--not enemies.  Secondly, you must be willing to take beatings or worse and return the next day without being provoked into attacking potential allies.  (Bring several days of food and water and always remember that casualties would be immensely greater in a violent revolution).  It is essential to dramatize any beatings and martyrdom especially via video for soldiers' families, any fencesitters and worldwide audiences to see.  . 

Many in the police and military have friends and familly among the opposition.   How long can they be asked to brutalize unarmed demonstrators for the benefit of a few self-enriching  scoundrels?  Having to come home and think about it, then return to protesting crowds daily is critical to turning minds. 

Make no mistake.  This is exactly what the regime fears most--any breach in total control of the military news of which could start a flood. Otherwise it is justifiably confident it can handle any violence from demonstrators.

The regime's second greatest fear is that members of the working class and and at least part of the rural countryside will join the Greens, especially if it leads to anything approaching a general strike.  That brings up the next crimitical element below.

TIMING

The oppposition can't allow the regime another apparent victory, as happened a year ago.  It would be demoralize the opposition and reinvigorate the bad guys.   The most effective large protests enjoy a great deal of spontaneity.

The effect of reduced subsidies will grow substantially by spring and early summer.  Ditto for high food prices caused by world weather conditions.  Economic grievances were critical in Egyptian protests.  Why not wait a few months to let things simmer?  

I don't think the working class has had enough yet to join in.  Give 'em time. 

 

 

 


  •