Syrian defection--maybe the biggest yet--could hurt the Islamic Republic big time

FG
by FG
05-Aug-2012
 

A week ago FSA sources suggested we'd see the biggest defection yet within days.  Is this it? 

 Ruthers says Colonel Yarub Shara was head of the Damascus branch of Political Security, an intelligence organization responsible for monitoring and suppressing dissent.

It's not just what the colonel can reveal about the inner workings of the regime but questions he will be asked, some of which could be explosive iin Iran:

Who proposed what when it came to cracking down?

To what extent, if any did Iran's Al Quds leader play in the decision?  

What role is Iran playing now?  

Is the claim of 3,000 Iranian snipers coming to reinforce Assad's militia in Baghdad merely propaganda?    

Were the recently captured Iranian "pilgrims" really pilgrims or Al Quds as the FSA claims.  

If so, who tipped them off?  The Colonel? 

Was the colonel involved in the Big Bombing in Damascus?

Who else in the regime is helping the resistance?

Is Assad planning a final holdput in Latakia where supposedly Sunnis are being cleansed? 

POTENTIAL PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPACT IN SYRIA:

1. If Assad can't trust the man in charge of Damascus security, who can he trust?

2. Will this defection scare other major insiders into defection?

3. What effect will it have on Iran's footsoldiers, pro-Iranian civilians and anyone wavering?

4. How much of a boost will it give to FSA morale?

5. How much demoralization will it add to an already demoralized Syrian army tired of playing the roile of Serbian extremists in Bosnia? 

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Two other intelligence officers came with him

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Three Syrian intelligence officers have defected from the Damascus regime and sought refuge in neighbouring Jordan, a spokesman for the rebel Free Syrian Army said on Sunday.

"Colonel Yarab al-Shara, his brother Mohammed Kanaan al-Sharaand Colonel Yasser Ali Hajj, who worked in political intelligence in Damascus, have defected and are in Jordan," Kassem Saadeddine told AFP.

Colonel Shara was head of the information department of the intelligence unit located in the capital.


FG

DEFECTOR: Thousands of Al Quds, Hezbollah among Assad forces

by FG on

Apparently they are being used to replace force losses caused by casualties and defections and there are thousands of them.   They are wearing Syrian uniforms but their accents give them away.  To avoid casualties, the recruits stay in the rear where they torture, interrogate and execute any captured FSA.  

"I'd kill myself before I'd fight for that army," says defector. 

MORE QUESTIONS TO PONDER:

1. Does this explain why Assad hasn't given up the fight?   '

2. In that case, what will Syrians do about Iran and Lebanonese Hezvbollah afterwards?'

3. Given the destruction and death caused by the tactics employed, how will Assad's troops be affected by such thugs in their midst?   How will I]Syrian people respond to the news that foreign troops are being used to target them or their property?

4. How will the Iranian people take this news?  

5. Sitting on top of a volcano can Iran afford to engage in such a proxy war in Iran.  It's expensive and leaves the regime vulnerable to an uprising. 

6. Will Iranians take advantage of that situation?

7. See lead post on the awful diplomatic implications for Iran as this exposure.

8. Given their assigned task in Syria, how will they employ their skills against the Iranian people.

9. Will news of an Iranian,and Hezbollah presence encouage the West to a more active role in assisting Syrians? 

10. Doesn't this give support to Green claims that imported thugs from Lebanon assisted the regime crackdown in 2009? 

11. If Iran insists on proxy warfare and Syria and the USA responds in kind, which side is in the only position to introduce air power against Assad?  

I should note however that you can see from its relative uselessness against the FLA, it won't be that big a problem for Iranian ground infantry.  It will however, deprive the regime of air protection for troops, tanks and artillery and limit its present ability to inflict damage.  So what's left? 

 

The You Tube Vidia 

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4T5muRFHPs

 


TO AYATOILET:

1.How would Iranians taketo the TOO EARLY presence of foreign troops (even handfuls of special forces)n their country even as allies?

Given the likely reaction of strong nationalists like yourself ( conspiracy theories on the usual motives such as oil, imperialism), no president can risk it.  We're damned if we do, damned if we don't so best to hesitate until later.

2. For outsiders to provide arms early in the conflict even if requested would aid the regime's appeals to the gullible which again will slander popular demonstrations as simply a foreign scheme with minimal popular support. Thus it helps discredit the protestors and handicaps them at the start.

That's one reason why Iranians must follow the Syrian example long enough to establish their own validity without outside help, acquiing weapons and fighters as Syrians did.  If they haven't gotten far before regime reinforcements return from Syria, they can always call things off until things worsen, Assad falls, and discontent becomes more widespread.

In the meantime, by forcing such a withdrawal, the may well have given Assad's regime his final kick.