Musings of a former chicken

for whatever it is worth,

I typed a half dozen responses to "what do you think" (I know it was not directed just to me) and I erased them as they were nothing you already don't know.  So my answer is that honestly I do not know what is in store, too many moving parts.  

I hope the Secular Democratic dissent on the ground has enough resources and time to organize and develop a vision significantly different than that of IR and (IR soft). Obviously I hope for #3.  Question is how to fend off 1&2 without suffocating #3.

DA, no problem.

Fred, please forgive me if I have diverted your very important blog. I stop here.

Mehrban, sorry!

Just realized that I was typing aloud, (somewhere unrelated in my skull). Here's a pffft to myself! ;)

"Hiroshima, who was the hiro, and who is Shima?"

Hate to be so simplistic but,

I don't see more than three options:

1) IR will continue as is with increased massive oppression, carrying through the elimination of the subsidies: giving itself some more years. [ highly unlikely]

2) IR won't be able to carry out eliminationof subsidies and it will cause it to lose its grip on power.Due to lack of a united opposition and foreign intervention, chaos and fragmentation will be the dominant aspect in Iran. [ distinct possibility]

3) IR won't be able to carry out elimnationof subsidies, it'll lose its grip on power. A united, coherent, democratic opposition will project itself as an alternative to IR and take over. [ distinct possibility]

What do you think?

P.S. For all those interested in an indepth, day by day account of 1977-79 events ( according to Kayhan and Etelleat ) see:

//www.saamaan-no.org/ 

there's an ppendix there for Saamaan-no #7. Tried to put  that appendix here, but it didn't want to play! with me, cheers

"My generation can't afford doing the same mistake twice."

Every time that I am content with the news of IR weakening,  there is also an anxiety burning in my brain.  "What is next"?   

"The "Revolution" was just a mirage"...Of words and numbers

Calling the revolution a mirage does not explain the bitter reality on the ground. I would say the Great Revolution ended up chasing a mirage long after overthrowing the previous regime which had become most utterly corrupt and unsustainable. 

Some of our learned friends seemingly try to exaggerate the numbers of the political activists during the "short" months of the revolution, such as 20,000 of this and 30,000 of that; which is fine, after all it is their comment and their push-of-a-finger on their own keyboard. Who am I to ask for proof and hard evidence?

Before I leave this blog, I'd like to remind all friends within the wide spectrum of Iranian political arena, to remember one simple fact:

Shah's dictatorial, SAVAK-run regime had reached the point of no return, rendering the occurrence of the revolution simply inevitable, if it was not for the Guadeloupe thing, the peanut farmer in Washington, and the face on the moon then it could have been with a much higher blood shedding few years later. No doubt. We, most naively, thought whoever comes next can't be as bad as Him.

My generation can't afford doing the same mistake twice. 

Never increase, beyond what is necessary, the number of entities required to explain anything.

Good Ol' Revolution, But What Happened?!

Everyone asks "What happened to the causes & promises of this revolution?"

The answer is so simple and funny that no one would believe it. I was there and watched it happen minute by minute. Guys, there were a group of 30,000 MKO members spread allover Iran. Another 20,000 old-fashioned communists on their side, there were about 100,000 so-called religious fanatics, mostly bazari, and about 10,000 mollahs. So we had only about 160,000 hardline revolutionaries spread allover Iran. BUT WAIT.... how did 160,000 become 1 million, 2 million, 3 million, 4 million, 5 million and at it's peak 6 or 7 million people?! That's where the funny answer comes:

About 3 million were school-children ages 10 to 18 & few thousand college-students to decide for others what to do. They were laughing, joking and yelling "Marg Bar Shah" not knowing what's about to happen to their world, happy to be free from schools and feeling patriotic and heroic.

Later when revolution was succeeding people were loaded on city buses and brought from villages to add to the size of demonstrators. Most villagers just raised their fists and yelled whatever the next guy was yelling.

So here is my point. Where are all those revolutionaries? Let's calculate: 30 million children were born after the revolution, so leave them out. 30,000 MKO, 20,000 communists were either killed or left the country. The 3 million children of 1979 are now 45-50 year olds who mostly hate the regime because they witnessed how the regime broke every promise it made in 79. From the 27 mil population of 79 at least 2 million are dead from age and illness, that leaves 25 mil. Deduct 1million who died in 8 year war with Iraq. Deduct 2 million Kurds who hate the regime. Deduct 2 million Baluchis who hate the regime. Deduct 3 million Azaris who hate the regime. That leaves 17 million. Over 3 million left Iran, which 1.5 of it live in United-States. That leaves 14million. From that 14mil half are women & hidden under covers uninvolved, that leaves 7 million. From that 7 mill about 3 million are Bazari, rich and somewhat pro-regime, why not?! They're all multibillionaires now. That leaves 4 million people who are either mullahs or hardline revolutionaries.

If you add the people who are on IRI payroll you'll get about 4 million and by now their bank accounts are full and most have forgotten how bitter they once were about the Shah, rich North Tehranis and their messages of "Freedom" is now well-sunk into "within our version of Islam". Now all they think about is how to hold on to their wealth & positions. That's why they arrest anyone who complains or threatens their system in anyway.

The "Revolution" was just a mirage, a nice promise that never existed in reality. In reality the poor, illiterate lower class only wanted money and power they never had, without actually earning it the old-fashioned way, by inheritance!

That's just great now

with all the noise now, he'll say even more little than before. PFFFT

"Hiroshima, who was the hiro, and who is Shima?"

"no one paid any serious attention to importance of democracy,

freedom and tolerance", so what was this revolution about?  

Fred

I hear you.

With all due respect

Mehraban jan, Iranian revolution of 1977-79 was by far one of the most urban, working class, and  modern ( yes, modern) revolutions of the 20th century. In terms of the street demonstartions and protest, Iran was way ahead of all French, Mexican, Russian and Chinese revolutions. In terms of working class intervention and the amount of industrial actions, again Iran was way ahead of those other four revolutions. It was most modern not only in terms of participants and modes of protest but modern also in terms of its use of media and the technologies available 30 years ago.

You're correct in observations about how the army folded and collapsed and this was also mainly due to the political nature of those two years, and the fact that army was based on shah and without him there would be no functioning army.

The problem however was in the vision ( or lack of a vision) for our post-monarchy society. Except a few intellectuals, and a few groups  and parties, no one paid any serious attention to importance of democracy, freedom and tolerance. Cheers 

Mehraban

Not only the Mousavi couple and other Islamist “reformers” condone the early values of the revolution, this Islamist couple in particular openly talks about returning to the “golden era of the Imam”. And by “Imam” they mean the mass murdering Khomeini.

Whose "facts"?

The perpetrators of the violence that has gripped our country for thirty years?

This blog is about Zahra Rahnavard condoning the early values of the Islamic Revolution.   I think.

oh dear, yet another subject of a blog

The difference between  the mention of facts and justification...

Anyway, what is this blog actually about?

"Hiroshima, who was the hiro, and who is Shima?"

Comrade

Iran was handed to the Revolutionaries (Khomeini ) on a silver platter, there was no protracted and popular armed struggle, the army folded with practically no resistance.  There was no revolution (in the classical sense) if you ask me.  There was a relatively easy change of regime.  Are the brutalities that followed not in large measure the acting out of a frustrated culture of violence. 

If thirty years down the line we justify the nausiating circumstances of the killings of the Shah's men as a revolutionary inevitability which by the way all supporters of IR do too , how can we in good conscience protest the abuses of the Islamic Republic of today.

If I might have dared, once again, I might have learnt that

I might have been  one of those shameless people who claim bravery through constant affirmations (to themselves), scribing more values (of value?) and I even might have believed that some wars are simply nibbling (at) one's absolutist  approach on the butt.

But then I might have "dared" to be quite gaumless and probably haven't even that  and most probably have...

"Hiroshima, who was the hiro, and who is Shima?"

"[E]xecution of the Shah's men".

I have neither interest nor intention to disrespect your sentimental values. In my opinion though, a revolution highly resembles an earthquake which cannot be controlled, but can only be calculated after the fact.

Never increase, beyond what is necessary, the number of entities required to explain anything.

Dear Comrade

To me the moral and ethical bankruptcy of the "revolution" (not my word) was evident as early as the horror show that was put on stage with the brutal display and execution of the Shah's men.  

I dare to yearn

I'm one of those shameless oldies who subscribe to the notion of "the lost values". I do strongly believe that "war" nipped our idealistic approach in the bud.  

Never increase, beyond what is necessary, the number of entities required to explain anything.

لنگش کن زهرا، لنگش کن!

قربانت، این وره آبی ها.

Zahra has been dreaming to

become IRI first lady for long time!  Keep dreaming!