Iran like Egypt


by Fred

Given that the three former heads of state in Egypt have been  military men, it is way too early to see what the Egyptian military will do.  However, there are lessons to be drawn from the forced abdication--30 year presidency is an inside joke--of Hosni Mubarak.  

Lesson one, people matter, and many unified persistent people matter most.

Lesson two, unambiguous international backing matter and the U.S. matters most.

Lesson three, money matter, and when the sources of income for many fatcats are put in jeopardy, status quo is overlooked allowing change to take shape.

12 million Egyptians live off tourism industry which makes up 20% of the national economy. Except a fraction, Egypt’s tourism is mostly owned by big money Egyptians. The same folks who had their camel mounted thugs attacking the peaceful protesters. The upheaval quickly dried up the sea of tourists flocking to Egypt. No foreign tourist was in effect a de facto economic sanctions which poured fuel on the burning fire of discontent.

Those Iranians and others who wish to see change in Iran, they might ponder this basic fact. Until the troubles began to hit some big pocketbooks, the Egyptian military was in no mood for changing anything.

The weaponized nuke acquiring messianic Islamist Rapists who rule over Iran and Iranians are despised internally and detested internationally. The regime of IRR, the Islamist Rapist Republic, pays for all its criminal activities with petro dollars.

It does not take a genius to figure out what needs to be done to break the status quo in IRR. Just look at Egypt and what broke the camel’s back. If anyhting, the Islamist Rapists in Iran are even more vulnerable to sanctions, their lifeline is blood oil and gas.   


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بت شکن

Hate to disappoint you Sir but ..

by بت شکن on

you didnt need to go all the way to Egypt of 2011 to learn these lessons. Thirty two years to the day when Mubarak was, in your words, forcefully abdicated, all these three lessons were taught in your homeland, but the pupils were exceptionally stupid. The Shah was brought down by a cocktail of (borrowing your words again) persistent popular protest (lesson one), unambigious international and US backing of the protestors (BBC's coordinating role, General Robert Huyser's unmistakable mission, and not to forget the Gudeloup summits's resolution) - lesson two - and yes money matters too (total shut down of the oil industry) - lesson three!

So it is not that there was any shortage of lessons. But you are missing the big picture while, interestingly, you say it clearly in your own blog: messianic Islamist regime.  This single word puts the whole scenario in a category different from the rest. There is a mission to be accomplished and that mission has nothing to do with people, politics or economy. Iran was not and will never be another Egypt.


Nuke terrorism VS nude tourism

by comrade on

My utterly learned friend, Fred, should be cautious about drawing an Egyptian model for our beloved land of Cyrus the Great. Events are still unfolding over there. Lest we confuse a soft coup with a populous revolution in Cairo. Are you sure that a change motivated by squeezed "big pocketbooks" is all you want?

Why do you think that US mattered most? I wonder if it has anything to do with the fact that Egypt is the second biggest recipient of the American foreign aid.

Nope, I'm not gonna tell you who the biggest is, and where she has to go back to!   


Never increase, beyond what is necessary, the number of entities required to explain anything.