در باره خطر جنگ و حمله نظامی آمریكا/اسراییل سخن بسیار گفته شده است و از جمله راقم این سطور در مقاطع مختلف كه این خطر تشدید شده نسبت به وقوع و عواقب فاجعهبار آن هشدار داده شده است. در برابر این اخطارها دو نظر غالب وجود داشته است. یكی این كه رژیم ایران با مهارت تمام سیاست خارجی خود را دنبال میكند و از پس تهدیدهای خارجی بر میآید. مدافعان این نظر برآنند كه جمهوری اسلامی از چنان حربههای بازدارنده برخوردار است (از نیروهای آماده به فرمان در عراق و فلسطین و لبنان گرفته تا جوخههای تربیتشده انتحاری كه میتوانند در هر كشور جهان فعال شوند) كه هیچ كشوری به خود اجازه نمیدهد به ایران تعرض كند. اینان همچنین «موفقیتهای» تا كنون جمهوری اسلامی را كه توانسته علارغم برقراری تحریمهای اقتصادی سازمان ملل و تهدیدهای نظامی غرب به كار خود ادامه دهد و به جای قطع غنیسازی كه خواسته فوری سازمان ملل است آن را توسعه دهد، به عنوان شاهدی بر ادعای خود به كار میگیرند.
نظر دوم كه به «اطلاعات» پشت پرده استناد میكند معتقد است كه رژیم ایران به ضعف خود آگاه است و مقاومتهای آن در برابر غرب دلیلی جز گرفتن امتیاز بیشتر ندارد. از دید اینان، رژیم در آخرین لحظه با غرب كنار خواهد آمد و با گرفتن امتیازهایی كه مهمترین آن تضمین ادامه حیات خود خواهد بود در برابر خواستهای غرب تسلیم خواهد شد. مدعیان این نظر در دفاع و توجیه نظر خود به انعطافها و عقبنشینیهای مقطعی رژیم ایران در برابر واقعیتهای اجتنابناپذیر و از جمله پذیرش قطعنامه 598 سازمان ملل برای پایان بخشیدن به جنگ ایران و عراق استناد میكنند. این تحلیل بر این اصل قرار گرفته است كه حفظ نظام مهمترین و تعیینكنندهترین هدف سران رژیم اسلامی است و آنان به تأمین آن به هر بهایی، حتا به قیمت به سر كشیدن جام زهر جدیدی هرچه قدر هم تلخ و خفتبار تن خواهند داد. این نظر با این تبصره تكمیل میشود كه برای رژیم هرگونه شكستی از این قبیل به راحتی قابل توجیه است و مبلغان آن به سادگی میتوانند آن را به عنوان یك پیروزی به خورد مردم (و دست كم هواداران خود) بدهند.
نكته آخر چیزی است كه رژیم این روزها به وسعت به كاربرد آن مشغول است. امروز، به لطف رهبران رژیم، همه میدانیم كه امام زمان رشته امور را در كشور ما به دست گرفته و به رتق و فتق آن میپردازد. امام زمان نه فقط سیاستهای كشوری و انتخاباتی و اقتصادی و هستهای كشور ما را رهبری میكند كه حتا رسواییهای آقای احمدینژاد در نیویورك را از جمله در دانشگاه كلمبیا در سال گذشته، كارگردانی كرده است. این ادعاها اگرچه از سوی بسیاری از مقامات مذهبی حتا در بین جناحهای مختلف حاكمیت مورد انتقاد قرار گرفته و برخی به دلیل آنها خواهان استیضاح آقای احمدینژاد شدهاند، ولی نشاندهنده آن است كه رژیم تا چه حد تلاش میكند كه از اعتقادات مذهبی مردم برای توجیه ضعفها، شكستها و بحرانهای خودآفریده بهرهبرداری كند. كاربرد مذهب در سیاست مهمترین حربه تحمیق جمهوری اسلامی از لحظه تأسیس آن بوده است. این حربه اكنون با به خدمت گرفتن امام زمان به حد نهایی خود رسیده است - حدی كه به راحتی میتواند همچون تیغ دو لبه آخرین اعتبار جمهوری اسلامی را در بین جامعه مذهبی ایران از بین ببرد.
در هر صورت، دو نظر یادشده فوق مشتركا به این نتیجه میرسند كه خطر حمله نظامیغرب به ایران واقعی نیست و نباید آن را جدی گرفت. این دو نظر همچنین نوعی عقلانیت را در سیاست خارجی جمهوری اسلامی فرض میگیرند. اگر این فرض به واقع نزدیك میبود میشد امید داشت كه رهبران این نظام در لحظه مناسب با تاكتیكهای حساب شده انعطاف لازم را به خرج دهند و از فاجعه جنگ جلوگیری كنند. ولی متأسفانه شواهد چنین نشان نمیدهد. به تصدیق دوست و دشمن، ما اكنون با یكی از مكتبیترین (بخوانید، خرافیترین) حكومتهای جمهوری اسلامی از آغاز شكلگیری آن سر و كار داریم. زوج خامنهای-احمدینژاد كه اكنون سكان حكومت را در دست دارند (خامنهای در سیاست كلان، و احمدینژاد در سیاست روزمره) چنان در خرافات و دنیای خودساخته خویش غرق شدهاند كه یا بحرانهای جاری كشور و واقعیات داخلی و خارجی را اصلا نمیبینند و یا به صورت خودقانعكننده به توجیه آنها میپردازند و آنها را در زمره موفقیتهای خود بشمار میآورند. سیاست خارجی جمهوری اسلامی از همان سال آغازین و اشغال سفارت آمریكا همواره مخاطرهآمیز بوده، ولی هیچگاه رهبری جمهوری اسلامی تا این حد خرافی و امام زمانی عمل نمیكرده است. و این بزرگترین عاملی است كه امروز خطر حمله نظامی غرب/اسراییل به ایران را به مرحله بسیار جدی رسانده است.
به عبارت دیگر، در دوره ۲۶ ساله اولیه جمهوری اسلامی، همواره رگههایی از عقلانیت در رهبری نظام دیده میشده است و این عامل عقلانیت توانسته بود در مقاطع خطرناك (پس از اشغال سفارت آمریكا، در اواخر جنگ با عراق، در بحران خلیج فارس در سالهای ۱۳۷۵/۷۶) رژیم را به نوعی انعطاف وادارد تا از بحرانهای موجود بگذرد. اكنون كه جمهوری اسلامی با شدیدترین بحرانهای داخلی و خارجی خود روبرو است، رهبری آن به دست كسانی افتاده است كه بیشتر در عالم مالیخولیایی خود زندگی میكنند تا جهان واقعی. این فقط آقای احمدینژاد نیست كه از چاه جمكران الهام میخواهد، در سازمان ملل در هالهای از نور قرار میگیرد، یا به فرمان امام زمان خود را برای رهبری جهان آماده میكند. مراد و ولینعمت او آقای خامنهای نیز علاوه بر تأیید رسمی و علنی احمدینژاد خود نیز این روزها بیشتر در این عوالم به سر میبرد. از قول یكی از نزدیكان خامنهای همین چند سال پیش برای من نقل شد كه یك شب او اطرافیان خود را بر میدارد و با سرعت به قم میروند و به خدمت آیت الله بهجت میرسند با این تقاضا كه كمی از حالات روحانی خود در ارتباط با امام زمان برای ما بگویید. آقای بهجت هم پس از اندكی تأمل این خواست آقای خامنهای را اجابت و نیاز او به سیراب شدن از فیض امام زمان را اشباع میكند. و بعد همان شب او و قافله همراهش به تهران باز میگردند.
اكنون آقای خامنهای ادعاهای گزاف احمدینژاد در باره امام زمان و ارتباط نزدیك خود با او را میشنود و در شرایطی كه موج انتقاد و اعتراض از همه طرف، از روحانیان قم گرفته تا متحدان سیاسی او در حكومت، بلند شده است آقای خامنهای نه فقط او را توبیخ و منع نكرده و بلكه در سخنرانیهای اخیر خود از او رسما حمایت كرده است. این حمایت صریح سیاسی، و حمایت ضمنی عقیدتی و مذهبی، خامنهای از مواضع احمدینژاد معنایی جز اشتراك در عقاید امام زمانی بین آن دو ندارد. یعنی از آن حد اقل عقلانیتی كه در دورههای گذشته جمهوری اسلامی تا سه سال پیش دیده میشد اكنون آثار ناچیزی بیش باقی نمانده است. البته برخی از حاملان آن عقلانیت، از حسین موسوی گرفته تا هاشمی و رفسنجانی و خاتمی، هنوز در حكومت یا حاشیه آن هستند و دست كم یكی از آنان (رفسنجانی) بخشی از اهرمهای قدرت را در دست دارد. ولی سر نخ كار در دست زوج خامنهای-احمدینژاد است و به سختی میتوان تصور كرد كه رفسنجانی بتواند بدون همراه كردن این دو در سیر وقایع كشور تأثیری بگذارد. سرنوشت كشور اكنون در دست دو نماینده امام زمان است و این دو نیز پاسخ بحرانها و مشكلات امروز جامعه ما را بیش از هر جای دیگر در چاه جمكران میجویند.
در واقع اگر خطر حمله نظامی كشور ما را تهدید میكند، این خطر فقط از برنامه غنیسازی هستهای رژیم ایران ناشی نمیشود. این خطر حتا از ماجراجوییهای نظامی رژیم در فلسطین و عراق و لبنان و افغانستان بر نمیخیزد. این سیاستها البته خطرناك است و در بحرانهای موجود جهانی مشكلآفرین. ولی اگر در ایران رژیمی زمینی بر سر كار بود كه سیاستهای خود را بر اساس توازن نیروها و تاكتیكهای حسابشده تنظیم میكرد میشد به سرانجام مسالمتآمیز كار خوشبین بود. ولی با مدعیان ارتباط با امام زمان كه وعده ظهور نزدیك او را پیش از حمله نظامی غرب میدهند چه میتوان انتظار داشت؟ خطر جنگ و حمله نظامی جدی است، و این خطر بیش از هر چیز از حضور زوج خامنهای-احمدینژاد بر سكان كشتی سیاست كشور ما ناشی میشود. با این زوج، انتظار كاربرد عقلانیت در سیاستهای داخلی و خارجی را نمیتوان داشت. این واقعیت وحشتناك نه فقط به سرعت دارد برای مردم ما روشن میشود كه حتا جهان خارج نیز به سرعت آن را در مییابد. به عبارت دیگر، غرب و اسراییل به سرعت در مییابند كه در صحنه سیاست ایران با یك نظام عقلانی روبرو نیستند - و این امر بیش از هرچیز دیگر آنان را در برخورد نظامی با ایران مصممتر میكند. From: Iran Emrooz
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Most of these pro comments will evaporate when oil is below $40
by samsam1111 on Wed May 14, 2008 08:29 PM PDTmark my words......there will be less to spread around for propaganda ...:)
Promoting war or is it opposing the IRI?
by jamshid on Wed May 14, 2008 08:28 PM PDT"Jamshid, you promote war and ANYTHING that can get rid of Mullahs."
I get this kind of response for having opposed the IRI and claiming that IRI's incompetence is responsible for the prospect of war.
Thanks god this is the US. But what about those that the IRI is similarly accusing in Iran?
I consider IRI as a
by ABeLin (not verified) on Wed May 14, 2008 08:23 PM PDTI consider IRI as a pragmatic, erroneous, unorganize, well-positioned, multi-faceted, complex, decentralized government system. I agree what the author says here that saving the government is IRI's top prioritity. There is a major contraiction though - It to save the government by sacrificing the principles, OR, to uphold principles at the expense of sacrificing the government. In the course of history, Shia ideology has chosen both strategies. Perhaps the best choice has got is a man heading government who has principles but also understand how to play in dirty waters - Someone like Rafsanjani.
The choice will primarily depend on who's in control of Government - the executive branch. I believe the government in Iran is chosen based on the necessity of time. Lately, the military branch is in favor, following pretty much the model of Pakistan which is in constant state-of-alert with India. You can have "Man of principles" in different factions of IRI, as you can find "Man of compromise".
It is well obvious that west has decided IRI must either "GO" or "Alter it's strategy" (The latter is surely preferred. It is also apparrent that IRI wants to stay. The irony is that the west and IRI has so much in common but very sudbtle differences (Israel). So, A happy medium is really not too unrealistic but needs ONLY a catalyst. Both sides are waiting for this to happen. You can see this in dating games they play in IAEA or Iraq-security games. So, the secret-code is "what is that catalyst"?
I think it's the "MUTUAL TRUST". This can only be assured by a mediator like China or Russia. But, do they really want this?????????
Re: Jamshid's altered , puzzled, confused mindset
by Ye Irani (not verified) on Wed May 14, 2008 07:52 PM PDTJamshid, you promote war and ANYTHING that can get rid of Mullahs. The hec with Mullahs, but I for one can not look for my self interest (OR perceived interest when you think you are the RIGHT one therefore your enemies must be eradicated) in even injuring on einnocent individual. I think you have read too much of Edgar Allan Poe or Sadegh Hedayat books. Wake up man and live a happy life.
Dear IRANdokht
by Kurdish Warrior (not verified) on Wed May 14, 2008 07:34 PM PDTIran is neither Iraq nor Afghanistan. Remember Iraq was created by British so there is no sense of Iraqi nationalism. Iran on the other hand has a proud nationalist people so there is no room for foreigner extremists or a civil war. It is therefore Iraq has turned into nightmare. I’m totally against foreign invasion, but we can’t just sit at home and watch what is happening in our country. If Iraq as whole had a nationalistic identity, then all part of Iraq would be like north of that country, Kirkuk. Where there is no terrorism act and the city keeps flourishing via investors. I can’t understand how some of you can ignore what this Government had done in past and is doing to your fellow countrymen. We need to stop being apologists.
Re: Irandokht
by jamshid on Wed May 14, 2008 06:38 PM PDTI am not surprised at all for being accused of being a "warmonger" yet again, this time by you, while I have always objected to any war against my country, and specifically listed the devastations that such war could bring to Iran.
Re-read my posts. I challenge you to find a reference in which I "wished" for a war or prefer an Iraqi style devastation than to keep the IRI. Don't accuse me unless you have evidence.
You seem to have fallen in the IRI propagandists trap of equaling opposition to the IRI to being a neocon warmonger sellout. Even as we exchange these posts, the IRI is rounding up many of Iran's brave men and women under the guise of being spies who want to bring war to Iran, while those deceived like you cheer the round ups.
You have disappointed me Irandokht.
My position is that it is not the IRI opposition nor the ordinary citizens of Iran who are rolling Iran direclty into the wolf's mouth of the US bully. In fact, I am claiming that it is the IRI's actions and incompetent foreign policies that is directing us to the path of destruction, not its opposition.
What is so wrong about setting aside taboos and saying things straight as they are?
The IRI and its supporters coupled with their bankrupt ideology are the root of our country's problems, including the prospect of a war with the US. A responsible government would never allow its people to be endangered as the IRI has.
Why South Korea, or Turkey, or UAE, or even China don't have these problems? Why do we?
You mistakenly accuse those who may wish the best for their country, but say it straight, much to the pleasure of the IRI propagandists.
MR. MS You still haven't
by Anonymousas (not verified) on Wed May 14, 2008 05:54 PM PDTMR. MS
You still haven't answered any of my questions. No one is asking you defend Imperialism. Your argument that Iran's "rice" or agriculture gives Iran security in a global market is outdated and ludicrous. America buys most of its produce from Latin America (Tomatoes are mostly bought from Mexico) and it has moved some of the most technological manufacturing plants to China. Does that mean America is a client state of China or Mexico.
You also conviently forget to mention that the EU, China and Russia have replaced America as IRan's masters. There is no security in chanting "Death to Israel", "Death to America" for 30 years. I don't think Americans are as stupid as you think. You also selectively choose to speak of atrocities in Iraq committed by the US when the IR is collaborating with the US to establish the Iraqi puppet government. You can't have it both way; collaborate with the Imperialist US and be anti-imperialist simultaneously.
Also, you need to update yourself on the state of "rice" in IRan and how it's been coopted by those who have contracted out rice production to foreign company.
What is your definition of "security"??? I think you mean independence. Do you really think Iran is an independent nation while Russia has been milking the IR in every which way. or it's ok to be ripped off by other countries as long as it's not the US.
Having said all the above, Iran will never be secure as long as there are people who put their ideology before the good of their nation. If anything, the Islamic Repbublic is the most paranoid and unstable government hanging on by brute force to power. I don't think it's wise to depend on a wounded/cornered beast for "security".
Dear Jamshid
by IRANdokht on Wed May 14, 2008 04:42 PM PDTDo you really prefer Iran to be in the same situation as Iraq rather than having IRI as the government? Granted Iran is not beheshteh bareen, not even close, but how can you compare it to the devastation in Iraq and wish for that instead? In a country much smaller than Iran, with much less population, there's been 5 million people displaced! that's above the half a million killed and many more maimed. Innocent people are dying violent deaths every day.
How can you wish that on your country?
I hope I misunderstood you... I really hope I did
IRANdokht
Re: Manouchehr
by jamshid on Wed May 14, 2008 02:40 PM PDTYou wrote, "I personally would rather one hundred times to have the present system that can provide the minimum security for my family and yours than having a situation like Iraq or Afghanistan however sold to the people around."
In your above statement, you obviously are concerned only for your own family, not others'. The IRI not only is not providing security for its people, it has taken it away from them by oppressing them in some of the worst barbaric ways not seen since the Nazis.
Additionally, it is the likes of you who are giving the IRI the false overconfidence which in turn will take Iran directly to the bully's mouth. When the US attacks Iran, will you take responsibility for your role? Of course not.
The root of the problem is the IRI. All your statments about West's imperialism is just a bunch of cliches. How come the Japanese are so prosperous? The South Koreans? Turkey considering they don't have any oil and still doing much better than Iran? UAE? The list of countries can go on.
The point is that if you cannot overwhelmingly defeat the "bully", then you'll have to work with it, give some and take some, in order to protect the people's interests and their quality of life. Something to which you are alien since your family seems to be in good shape already.
Pouyan Jaan; As I
by Manoucher Avaznia on Wed May 14, 2008 01:42 PM PDTPouyan Jaan;
As I have said and have written, Western intervention in Iran has not started with the Islamic Republic and will not finish with the Islamic Republic. Our history is a witness and I am saying this from the point of view of someone who has worked with the subject. As a matter of fact, the Iranian Revolution, in my belief, was mainly our nation's response to their aggressive economic, political, cultural, and militay sway. I believe, this will continue until they recognize to respect our nation's independence and legitimate rights no matter what type of government is in power.
Thanks
by Manoucher Avaznia on Wed May 14, 2008 01:29 PM PDTDear Anonymousas;
I truly appreciate your comment, however I have no point of either defending terrorism or defending imperialism. In both ways the civil liberties and prosperity of civil societies will go with the wind. A certain strata of arms producers and arms dealers will benefit from wars. Dectatorship in both societies involved will be consolidated. Just look at the US after attacking Iraq for no reason. How much civil liberties have gone under and pulbic treasure has been spent on war; likewise in other places on the face of the Earth that followed US example. As I will never endorse imperialistic agressions of anciant Iranians against other nations, I will not endorse any other imperialistic agressions against any nation including my own homeland. Second, having trade relations, Brother, is very different from having trade to be dictated to us. I am old enough to remember the rice to be bought at several times higher and then sold to Iranian villagers ,who were to be producers of a better rice, at a price under the market value paid by oil money. Destruction of rural social system and influx of cities in Iran was happening before my eyes. Compliance with international agreements doesn't mean that the poor and the weak have to comply and rich and powerful do not have to comply or break them at their own behest. Third, over 1400 hundred years of relationsship that you referred to, I should say by the same token of its onsidedness, was rejected by the Iranian people. Our history of numerous political, military, and cultural campaign is clearly attesting to this fact. Even before that we were occupied and we fought our way out of occupation. Even after that we were invaded and we resisted occupation and wars. Perhaps, no country in the face of earth has as many adventures as our nation have had. Fouth, about nowadays, however both of us are victimized by the same system, I personally would rather one hundred times to have the present system that can provide the minimum security for my family and yours than having a situation like Iraq or Afghanistan however sold to the people around the globe as democracy. What we need is and I, as a person who is among the poor of this society, always advocate is peace. There is no way that a person like me to benefit from war and the propaganda around it.
IRI is accomplice
by Pouyan (not verified) on Wed May 14, 2008 11:47 AM PDTIt is quite tangible that Mullahs create conflicts to survive. However, despite their pompously military parades, their deterrent forces collapse like a house of cards soon after the first offensives. Mullahs bark but do not bite, except the people in Iran.
The IRI and its propagandists, who unfortunately now flood this site, buy time for their survival, by highlighting a foreign attack. However, air strikes on Ghods' training camps in Khuzestan is not ruled out.
I share your idea that if such strikes happen and damage our nation or infrastructures defiant Mullahs and their supporters are accomplice.
re: Manouchehr's comment
by Bravo! (not verified) on Wed May 14, 2008 11:37 AM PDTManoucher Avaznia's comment is right on the money!
BRAVO!!! Your political view and your analysis of Iran and the foreign powers are logical and accurate.
Thank you
Mr. Manouchehr Avaznia: What
by Anonymousas (not verified) on Wed May 14, 2008 11:16 AM PDTMr. Manouchehr Avaznia: What are you concluding by Rehashing the past 200 years (and why not the past 1400 years while you're at it0? What are you suggesting? Are you recommending war with the "satanic US"???
Tell me, has there ever been an empire-free world in the history of mankind???
Do you really think Iran has a chance to win a war with the US?? Is war and terrorism the only solution you can come up with when faced with greater powers.
Are you saying that the Western goods are not flooded in Iran right now?? The EU is Iran's largest trade parnter and lately Russia and China have joined the band wagon in dumping their cheaply made goods into Iran. Are you suggesting that the Islamic Repblic economu is not based on capitalism oligarchy??? What domestic product are you talking about???
I was going to read the article
by Mehdi on Wed May 14, 2008 11:12 AM PDTBut then I read Manouchehr's comment and I said to myself, "Yeah, that's it!" That comment is far better view of things than the article, I am afraid. Sure, Iran has its share of idiot, morons, opportunists, thieves, etc. But for now, they are not the issue AT ALL.
Who is a threat to whom
by Abarmard on Wed May 14, 2008 11:01 AM PDTOne must first approach that idea to fully understand the current issues. One does not need to support the IR regime to be critical about the role (threat) of Israel and the US in our region and country.
Mr. Avazina has pointed out a very good argument. Looking at the Iranian scenario without a historical knowledge, results in a shallow analysis that forgo the real factors involved in the foreign policies of Iran and her mistrust to the west.
It is unfortunate to see the
by Manoucher Avaznia on Wed May 14, 2008 10:05 AM PDTIt is unfortunate to see the writer of the article does not go back to the prevous one hundred fifty years of our homeland's history to see that West has never left us alone with any kind of government. They are looking for market, cheap raw materials, and therefore political and military domination. Twice Iran was occupied by them in the Great Wars that had nothing to do with our governments whatsoever. More than half of our territories and populations were severed from the motherland just because of Russo-English policies and internal political weakness. Any government in Iran that doesn't yield to their never-ending demands will face the same challenges that present government of Iran is facing. Let's face it. In the past two hundred years they always had their forces in the Persian Gulf and have threatened our sovreignty according to their whims and interests. Can you ever show me a single decade in the past two hundred years that they have not pressurized our governemts according to their policies? I strongly believe only blaming everything bad on our domestic despots is not an unrealistic approach to this matter of war, but also it is misleading. Look at occupation of Iraq that from the beginning to the end was based upon lies that came through their media and governments that represent the ruling sectors in those countries. It is only the matter of division of the world among certain unstiable apetite of certain industrial powers, Brother. The rest is beatting about the bush. The reality is that even if you bring the most secular government to power in Iran without openining its gates to the influx of Western goods at the expense of domestic products, they will concoct stories for military intervention or breaking the country into small sizeable pieces with no real power and authority.